Modern relative sea levels are near the lowest in the last 7,000 years.
Two studies, independently published, identify Mid-Holocene sea levels in northern Norway (north of the Arctic circle) as 7 to 9 meters higher than today before declining to the present (Balascio et al., 2024, Nielsen et al., 2024).
This region of the Arctic was warm enough to support human settlements and boat harbors during the Medieval Warm Period. As the climate deteriorated into the Little Ice Age cooling centuries after the Medieval warmth, the accompanying sea level fall led to abandoned residences, ships, and harbors. The seas had become to shallow to sail in.
It is sometimes assumed that these much higher Holocene relative sea levels are merely a function of tectonics, or post-glacial uplift. But sea levels in the tropics (for example the Malaysia-Thailand region), unaffected by ice-loading vertical land motions, were also anywhere from 2 to 5 meters higher than today during this Mid-Holocene period before declining to present levels (Punwong et al., 2024).
“The Malay-Thai Peninsula is tectonically stable and remote from isostatic ice-loading effects.”
The recent sea level rise in recent centuries is thus well within the range of natural sea level variations.
Arctic sea ice extent as recorded by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, looks at the situation in January 2024. Despite the record temperatures reported, the ice in the Arctic has recovered somewhat.
The slight recovery trend since the Arctic minimum was reached is continuing at the beginning of 2024, with the sea ice extent at the beginning of the year below the average value for the years 1981 – 2010, but in the lower range of the extreme values (minimum / maximum) of this international climate normal period (Figure 1).
If we look at the new reference period 1991 – 2020 introduced by the World Meteorological Organization in 2021, January 2024 is roughly in line with the mean value of this period (see interactive graphic). The average Arctic sea ice extent in January was 13.99 million square kilometers, around 400,000 square kilometers greater than the ice cover in January over the last 20 years (Figure 2). During the month, the extent increased by approximately 29,000 square kilometers per day, which was slower than the average increase from 1981 to 2010.”
Image: Screenshot Meereisportal.de
Among highest in past 20 years
The above chart indeed shows a stable trend over the past 2 decades. According to the AWI:
This year’s maximum sea ice extent most likely occurred on February 27, at 14.94 million square kilometers. The monthly average ice extent in February was 14.65 million square kilometers.”
That makes it higher than 15 of the past 20 years.
Compared to the long-term average for the years 2003 – 2014, it is noticeable that the sea ice cover in the northern Barents Sea is lower, but the Greenland Sea and the northern Baltic Sea in the Gulf of Bothnia and the coastal zones of the Barents Sea have more extensive sea ice areas. This indicates lower and longer-lasting cold periods in these regions.”
There has been a “continued, significant ozone reduction since 2004, amounting to 26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” (Kessenich et al., 2023).
It is not at all evident that the 1987 Montreal Protocol bans on presumed ozone-depleting substances (ODS) like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) materially affected the flat to negative trajectory of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica.
Massive Antarctic ozone holes – the largest on record in 45+ years of tracking – have been ongoing in the 21st century. In fact, “five of the past eight years overall have exhibited record ozone holes,” with a negative trend resulting in a “26% loss in the core of the ozone hole” from 2004-2022 (Kessenich et al., 2023).
Because the presumed effect of the ODS bans have not been realized in the last 35 years, the scientists who still believe humans are responsible for ozone losses (i.e., 2022 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion) are now saying the ozone recovery from ODS damages “should be on track” to being realized by 2065 – over 40 years from now. This estimate is quite convenient, as most of the scientists formulating these predictions will be dead.
Another new study (Jonas, 2024) points out that ozone holes were observed in the 1960s too. This is well before 1979, the conveniently-chosen “start” year for ozone hole formation.
Also, the data appear to show “the annual ozone minimum at the South Pole is related to lower stratospheric temperature independently of chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide.”
In the desert of Afif, west of Riyadh, it snowed unexpectedly, both citizens and tourists were shocked.
The significant drop in temperatures was expected with strong north-westerly winds making it even colder. Last year (2023), parts of Saudi Arabia saw its first snowfall in 100 years.
Bolstered by the increasing snowfall in recent years (and despite the “devastating effects of climate change”), Saudi Arabia is working to improve its mountain tourism with its own ski resort to be built by 2026.
Freezing Australia
This past week, the Australian continent saw temperature anomalies of up to 28°C below the multi-decadal norm, affecting large regions:
The exceptional cold in the far north has contributed to Arctic sea ice extent to be above the average for the period 2011-2020, and is rapidly approaching the average for the period 2001-2010.
Obviously the Arctic is surprising the experts, who warned that sea ice there was supposedly in rapid decline.
Unusual, record-breaking cold in India
Intense cold persists in Indian cities like Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Chandbali, Paradeep and Baripada, which are experiencing record-breaking low temperatures. On Wednesday, many places in the eastern state of Odisha experienced the coldest March days ever. In Bhubaneswar, a maximum temperature of only 19.2 °C was recorded yesterday, breaking the previous record of 24.3 °C by a whopping 5°C!
In northern India, snow from the north is bringing down temperatures in the lower latitudes in central and southern India. In many cities, including the eastern metropolitan cities of Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Chandbali, Paradeep and Baripada, record low March temperatures were recorded, beating benchmarks from the 1970s and beyond.
Record low in New Zealand
In the southern hemisphere, where summer has come to an end, the temperature in Whanganui, New Zealand dropped to 4°C on Wednesday morning, the second lowest March temperature in the town’s history. The lowest March low of all time was recorded on March 28, 1985 (solar minimum of the 21st cycle) at 2.5 °C.
New lows recorded in Australia
A severe cold snap has hit southeastern Australia. In the mountains of New South Wales, there was frost in the Perisher Valley with temperatures as low as -5.7°C. This is only 1.4°C above the national record for the month of March. Thredbo recorded -4.4°C. Cooma also recorded an impressive -1.9°C.
In Mt. Hotham, Victoria, the national record was missed by just 1.2°C, at -3.1°C. Monthly records also fell in Omeo, Victoria: on Thursday morning, the temperature of -0.7°C was a whole 1°C below the previous record (2021).
And in Cleve, South Australia, the temperature of 6.8 °C also exceeded the old record by 1 °C (yet to be confirmed).
Temperature in Antarctica plummets to near -68°C
On March 21, the seasonal minimum at Concordia dropped to -67.7°C, from -67.4°C on March 20.
Antarctica is cooling, the data is clear…
At Klimanachrichten, Dr. Ludger Laurenz looks how solar influence on rainfall in Germany.
Precipitation patterns linked to the 22-year Hale cycle.
While droughts and periods of heavy precipitation in Germany are often blamed on CO2 climate change by the media and pseudo-experts, Laurenz sees a clear link to the 22-year solar Hale cycle. This can be detected in many historical weather data series.
To search for the solar influence on the annual precipitation sum, he used the data from the DWD dating back to 1903.
Finding: “Different precipitation trends are repeated every 22 years. This indicates solar influence.”
According to Laurenz, “The exceptionally high level of precipitation totals in the last year and the first two months of 2024 is very likely due to solar influence.”
Moreover, he found: “The evidence of solar influence on precipitation totals is even better if periods over the turn of the year are selected instead of the classic annual period from January to December, such as the 12-month period from July to June of the following year or the winter half-year. The solar influence on the precipitation sum is much stronger in the winter half-year than in the summer half-year.”
The solar magnetic cycle (Hale cycle) lasts approximately 22 years and can be detected in solar physical measurement data (Chapman et al. 2021) and the search for solar influence is based on Chapman’s formulations.
With the change from one Hale cycle to the next, the sun starts a new program of activity within a few weeks that repeats itself in the same pattern approximately every 22 years. Every single month and every single year of the 22-year Hale cycle is characterized by a specific solar activity pattern that affects the Earth’s atmosphere and creates weather trends.
Ms. Veretenenko’s latest publication from the Loffle Institute in Saint Petersburg has described the mechanism of the transformation of varying solar activity via the stratosphere to the troposphere and thus our weather.
Using the start years of the Hale cycles, it is easy to prove solar influence in historical weather data, Larenz shows.
To do this, the weather data from the same approx. 22-year cycle phases, starting with the respective start years of the Hale cycles, are stacked on top of each other. The result:
Every 22 years, extremely high and low annual precipitation totals accumulate in the same phases of the 22-year Hale cycle.
The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate.
It has been estimated that the total change in climate forcing (radiation imbalance) from the 1750 to present CO2 concentration increase has been 1.82 W/m².
New research suggests today’s climate models omit an “important perturbation to Earth’s energy balance” because they fail to include the natural climate forcing potential from aerosols produced by wildfires and dust loading.
Climate models expressly assume this non-volcanic natural aerosol forcing is not present, or 0.0 W/m², even though it has been estimated that aerosol forcing from wildfire emissions alone – which were much higher during the preindustrial period before declining to today’s levels – deliver a “radiative effect in the current climate of -2 W/m².” Therefore, this natural climate forcing effect can be said to, by itself, fully cancel the surface forcing from the post-industrial CO2 increases.
Furthermore, the estimated 4 W/m² uncertainty in preindustrial-to-present (1850-) aerosol climate forcing from natural wildfire emissions and dust is also over two times larger than 270 years of CO2 concentration increases (1.82 W/m² since 1750). This effectively means that anthropogenic CO2 forcing is too uncertain to clearly separate from natural aerosol forcing.
1) Regarding the natural aerosol forcing uncertainty missing in the models…
“The uncertainty in aerosol emissions that are usually considered natural, such as from dust storms or wildfires, is likely larger and contributes to larger uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing.”
“There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods.”
“…dust deposition records [are] not captured in climate models. These models therefore also predict a dust-climate feedback that is indistinguishable from zero. As such, not explicitly accounting for dust changes as a radiative forcing has the net effect of omitting this potentially important perturbation to Earth’s energy balance.”
“…here we are assuming, without prior information, that the radiative forcing of any paleo-time period relative to the preindustrial is around 0.0 W/m².”
“…we do not know the emissions [from wildfires or dust] well, nor the impact of those emissions on climate. We can envision these uncertainties as mostly unknown.”
2) Regarding the larger radiative forcing impact and uncertainty values of natural aerosols than CO2 forcing…
“In addition, wildfires and open fires represent some of the most important aerosols for direct and aerosol-cloud radiative effects, with a total radiative effect in the current climate of -2 W/m².”
“The total unconstrained uncertainty due to aerosol changes [since 1850] could be estimated as being 4 W/m².”
“…dust [radiative forcing] was likely 2-4 times higher in the Last Glacial Maximum [~25,000 to 17,000 years ago] than it is today.”
“From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial [1850] of 4.8 W/m².”
“Paleoclimate data from charcoal records suggest a maximum in open fires in the 1850s and a decrease since then. Satellite data show a global decrease in burned area over the last decades…”
“…the 1970s is a time period of Sahel drought, and dust radiative forcing between the 1960s and 1980s changed by perhaps -0.57 ±0.46 W/m².”
Heavy snowfall hit large parts of Europe recently, including southern Spain. Several provinces in the Andalusia region remain under a snow warning following a “wintry” weekend, according to the Spanish weather authority Aemet, after Storm Monica caused heavy snowfall, strong winds and/or rough seas. According to Aemet, the largest amounts of snow will accumulate in the southern foothills of the Sierra Nevada.
Another meter of snow in Newfoundland
A late winter snowstorm dumped a meter of fresh snow on Newfoundland.
Significant amounts of ice were also observed on the Avalon and Burin peninsulas.
Preliminary figures show that one meter of snow fell in Kilbride, over 80 cm in Bay Roberts and 79.7 cm in Paradise – to name just three locations.
Antarctic sea ice recovery
Anomalous/record-breaking cold continues to affect the lower part of the world. On Sunday, March 10, values below -60 °C were measured again in Vostok: -63.1 °C, to be exact.
As for Antarctic sea ice, a remarkable – and “overlooked” by the MSM – reversal of fortune is taking place. The once cripplingly low extent is now higher (3,165,625 km²) than it was 27 years ago (3,075,000 km²).
Just as in 1997, the ice extent today is greater than in 2023, 2022, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2011, 2006, 1993, 1992, 1991 and 1981:
Severe snowstorms have battered the European Alps in recent weeks and the death toll is rising.
Five missing skiers have “frozen to death” in the Swiss Alps while trying to build a cave to protect themselves from the elements, rescuers say. A sixth is still missing and an intensive search is underway.
It has been snowing heavily in the Alps recently, a fact barely reported by the warmth-addicted mainstream. In Macugnaga, Italy, for example, another 75 cm of fresh snow fell on Sunday, with more than 3 m accumulating at altitude.
Despite claims to the contrary by the MSM, this has been a good snow season for the European mountains, with most peaks and ski resorts above average in terms of snowfall.
Western Canadian cold wave costs 180 million dollars
According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), the extreme cold snap in Western Canada in January led to insured losses of at least 180 million dollars.
In British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, initial estimates indicate that most of the damage was to personal property, such as water damage from burst pipes. These estimates do not include the “catastrophic losses” suffered by many farmers in places like the Okanagan Valley in British Columbia, where grape growers lost their entire crop this year.
The brutal mid-January freeze dropped temperatures to a “deadly” -27°C in key wine-growing regions in B.C.’s southern interior.
A February report from Wine Growers BC said it expected an “almost complete write-off of the 2024 vintage” with $346 million in lost revenue for vineyards and wineries.
“It was an unusual winter season with extreme variability in conditions across the country,” said Rob de Pruis of the IBC.
West gets buried by March snowstorms…
In a matter of days, a series of snowstorms that battered the Sierra Nevada changed the outlook for water supplies from a “1,200-year megadrought” to “help, we’re all going to drown,” according to federal resource managers (I’m paraphrasing a bit here).
After a four-day snowstorm that began on Leap Day, the snowpack in the Eastern Sierra increased by a record-breaking 30%.
By the end of the heavy snowstorm, above-average snowpacks were measured in the California and Nevada basins – a twist of fate that caused vehicles to get stuck and highways to be closed between the two states.
According to official data, the intensity of the four-day snowstorm was also among the strongest ever recorded. Since 1981, only three storms have brought more snow over four days than this year’s blizzard.
Nevada
Nevada also benefited from the increased snowfall in the Great Basin. Snow levels in the Upper Colorado Basin, for example, are now at 105% of normal. In addition, last year’s record snowpack has continued to buffer Nevada’s reservoirs and “allowed for some carryover,” according to Thomas Albright, interim climatologist for the state of Nevada.
The increasing snowpack this year could actually bring a longer period of rain (of more than two years in a row) for the first time this century, said Dan McEvoy of the Western Regional Climate Center.
“We’ve had more events since 2000, with some of the wettest and driest years on record in the last decade alone, but no consecutive trends,” McEvoy added.
Utah
The Alta ski area in northern Utah has also seen good snowfall in recent weeks.
After last year’s record snowfall, it may come as a surprise to hear that the snowpack on March 1, 2024 was actually two centimeters deeper than March 1, 2023 (386 cm) and only 4 centimeters away from beating the resort’s February record.
Alta averaged over 13.5 cm of snow per day last month, making it the third snowiest February on record.
“Severe snowfall” in Portugal
The Portuguese ski resort of Serra da Estrela reports that it has “the best conditions in years” after the “enormous snowfall” over the weekend.
Like most ski resorts in Europe, Serra da Estrela is experiencing a kind of post-season deluge, as a huge storm from Friday to Sunday buried lifts and buildings under meters of snow:
Serra da Estrela after a snowstorm in March 2024.
Despite the access problems, the area is fully open with 22 slopes.
Arctic sea ice above average
As with Antarctic sea ice extent – see above – the upper part of the world is doing exceptionally well, considering that this is the “hottest year in the last 125,000 years”.
The official data shows that Arctic sea ice extent is well above the multidecadal average:
To illustrate this in a way that even the most deluded alarmist can understand, the extent of Arctic sea ice today is the same as it was in 1995, when Al Gore was Vice President:
There’s a reason we haven’t heard much about the Arctic in recent months, and that’s because there’s nothing to worry about.
Heavy snowfall in Colorado
A severe storm is currently bringing meters of snow to Colorado, leading to the cancellation of flights and the closure of a major highway.
The blizzard, which began on Wednesday evening, is not expected to subside until Friday. It brought more than 90 cm of snow to the higher elevations by Thursday evening, with another 60 cm expected by Friday morning. In Denver itself, about 20 cm fell on Thursday and another 25 cm is expected.
Loveland Ski Area announced that it is closed. The other is Eldora Mountain “because the plow and grader cannot access the slopes on Shelf Road.” According to a release from the area, at least one day of work is required.
This is the first time in over 20 years that Eldora has been closed due to snow. The last time was in 2003 around St. Patrick’s Day.
Stark weather change in Toronto
From spring-like warmth to the return of winter, Toronto won’t know where it stands this week with a 24 degree Celsius temperature difference and snow in the forecast.
A chilly and wet St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday will give way to a very cold Monday. The Weather Network is predicting a daytime high of -2°C on Monday, although the actual temperature could drop as low as -4°C overnight.
Wednesday saw highs of 20°C, and within a few days we will see frost and snowfall – only a centimeter or two, but what a shock to the system, what a change between extremes.
According to the Weather Network report, “Drivers should prepare for the return of winter as the threat of snowfall in southern Ontario is not over.”
New blast of cold air in China
The Chinese region of Xinjiang recorded a remarkably low temperature of -52.3 °C in February, a new national record.
“From modern instrumental carbon isotopic data of the last 40 years, no signs of human (fossil fuel) CO2 emissions can be discerned.” – Koutsoyiannis, 2024
It is routinely claimed that a telltale sign human emissions (fossil fuels) have irrevocably altered the atmospheric CO2 concentration is a declining trend in carbon isotope 13 (δ13C), considered an interruption of natural carbon cycle processes.
But new research examining isotopic data from four observation sites (South Pole, Mauna Loa, Barrow, La Jolla – regarded as “global” in their coverage) indicates there is no isotopic pattern consistent with a human fingerprint.
“The standard metric δ13C is consistent with an input isotopic signature that is stable over the entire period of observations (>40 years), i.e., not affected by increases in human CO2 emissions.”
In fact, not only has the input isotopic CO2 signature not been declining as proposed by those who believe humans are fully responsible for the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, but, according to multiple detection techniques using both modern data and paleo data extending to the Little Ice Age (16th to mid-19th century), δ13C [input] has actually been increasing.
This directionality is the exact opposite of what is supposed to happen if fossil fuels were driving atmospheric CO2 increases.
“…for the longer subperiod lengths, 20 and 30 years, the tendencies are clearly increasing, opposite to the hypothesis that they are caused by fossil fuel emissions”
“…the trends are small and always positive, again contradicting the fossil fuel origin of the phenomenon”
“…from period B to C [1899-1976 to 1977-1997], we note an increase in δ13C [input, from -13.9‰ to -12.9‰], contradicting the fossil fuel origin of the phenomenon”
When I asked AI Google Gemini: “About how many weather stations there were on the globe back in 1890?”, this is the answer it provided:
The exact number of weather stations in 1890 is not readily available. Weather stations were still under development in the late 1800s, with the first international network being established just a few years before in 1887.
Here’s some additional information about weather stations in the late 1800s:
Early development: Weather observations have a long history, but standardized weather stations with comprehensive measurements are a relatively recent invention.
International collaboration: The year 1887 marked a significant step forward with the establishment of the International Meteorological Organization, which helped unify weather observation practices across different countries.
While a definitive number for 1890 is difficult to pinpoint, the existence of the first international network in 1887 suggests there were at least some operational weather stations around the globe by 1890. However, the total number would likely be significantly lower compared to today’s dense weather station networks.”
First African stations are unknown
Africa is a huge continent, and so for recording historical weather, it would be most helpful to know when the first weather stations were put into operation there.
I prompted Google Gemini: “When was the first ever weather station put into operation in Africa?” Answer:
Unfortunately, pinpointing the exact date of the very first weather station in Africa is a challenge. While historical records exist, information on the continent’s earliest weather stations might be scattered or even unavailable.”
What about South America, early 20th century?
Next I asked: “About how many weather stations were in operation in South America in the 1920s?” Gemini answer:
There’s no readily available data to determine the exact number of weather stations in operation across South America during the 1920s. Weather station networks were still under development back then, and data collection on their numbers might be limited.”
Google Gemini probably didn’t understand the question, as it said it couldn’t give an “exact number” even though I only wanted to know “about” how many. So I asked: “Can you provide an approximate number? Was it less than 50?” Here’s the answer I got:
The number of weather stations in operation across South America during the 1920s is difficult to determine precisely due to limited data availability. However, considering the developing state of weather station networks at that time, it’s likely the number was less than 50. This is an estimate based on historical context, not exact data.”
How certain is the historical global record?
Finally I asked Google Gemini: “With weather stations being so sparse in the southern hemisphere in the early 1900s, is it really possible to be certain about global mean temperatures back then?” Here’s the answer:
You’re absolutely right. The sparse network of weather stations, particularly in the southern hemisphere during the early 1900s, introduces significant limitations to our certainty about global mean temperatures back then. Here’s why:
Limited data: Weather stations provide crucial temperature measurements for calculating global averages. With fewer stations, especially in a vast region like the southern hemisphere, vast areas lack temperature data. This creates significant gaps in the overall picture.
Uneven distribution: Even the existing stations might not have been evenly distributed. Stations were likely concentrated in populated areas or along trade routes, leaving large swaths of land and ocean unrepresented. This bias can skew the calculated global mean temperature.
Measurement inconsistencies: Early weather stations might have used different instruments or calibration methods. These inconsistencies can introduce inaccuracies when compiling data from various sources.”
In other words, only wild-ass guesses can be made about global mean temperatures 100 years ago – let alone 500 or 1000 years ago.
“I apologize if my previous responses downplayed the significance of limited data on oceanic cycles. You’re absolutely right, the ocean is a major component of the climate system, and its influence is significant.”
Google AI admits there’s a glaring lack of climate data and huge uncertainty when it comes to climate change…
An ocean of unknowns..
When I prompted Google Gemini with the question: “Is the climate changing and what is responsible for it,” I got the answer:
Here’s a breakdown of how much it’s changing and why:
The Evidence: The last decade (2011-2020) was the warmest on record, with each of the past four decades being warmer than any previous decade since 1850 according to the UN https://www.un.org/en/climatechange.
The Cause: Human activities are the primary driver behind global warming. The burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas releases greenhouse gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the planet to warm. https://climate.nasa.gov/
Yes, that’s the proof AI like Gemini gives you. Settled!
But the truth is that AI struggles when you challenge it, goes into the denial mode when you trap it, and even apologizes and admits when it errs.
Mass of oceans 270 times greater than atmosphere
This can be done by debating with Gemini, for example, on the topic of the oceans. Gemini admits: “Yes, the oceans are absolutely a major part of Earth’s total climate system.”
Oceans over 99% of climate system
In fact, Gemini tells us that the mass of the ocean is 270.2 times greater than the mass of the atmosphere, meaning the oceans are some 99.6% of the climate system (neglecting land). Thus the atmosphere is only 0.4%. Clearly the oceans dominate our climate system.
Thus, to reliably predict the future of our climate system, wouldn’t we need to have very long-term historical datasets of the oceans so that we could know how they behave and how they will likely behave and effect our climate in the decades and centuries ahead? That’s the debating approach I took with Gemini.
99% of data missing
I asked Gemini: “Do the datasets for the oceanic cycles like the PDO, ENSO, AMO and others go back 1000 years?
Gemini answered:
Unfortunately, direct instrumental measurements of oceanic cycles like PDO, ENSO, and AMO don’t extend back 1000 years. Our current observational record of ocean temperatures is limited to a few decades at best.”
So is it possible to accurately predict the oceanic cycles for the next 100 years?, I asked next.
Gemini summarized its reply:
Overall, while precise predictions for 100 years are unlikely, scientists are working on ways to improve our understanding of oceanic cycles and their potential future behavior.”
Predictions impossible
Next I asked Gemini: “If scientists do not have direct instrumental measurements of oceanic cycles going back 1000 years and cannot accurately predict oceanic cycles like AMO, PDO, ENSO for the next 100 years, then how can scientists predict what the climate will be like in 100 years? If they cannot predict a major component of the climate system, then wouldn’t we have to say that it is impossible to predict what the climate will be like in 100 years?
Gemini replied:
You’re right, there are limitations to how precisely we can predict climate 100 years into the future. Oceanic cycles are a complex part of the climate system, and while we don’t have perfect knowledge of their past or future behavior, climate predictions still hold value.”
Don’t have “perfect knowledge of their past”? 99% of the data are missing! That’s light years from being perfect.
And that climate predictions may hold value? The uncertainty of predictions is glaring to say the least. Gemini is struggling at this point, and concluded:
In conclusion: Our understanding of the climate system is constantly evolving, and while there are limitations on predicting specific details like the future behavior of AMO, the big picture is clearer. Human activity is driving global warming, and climate models can provide valuable insights to help us prepare for the future.”
Throughout, Gemini, constantly played down the massive unknowns and huge uncertainty, and just dogmatically promoted junk-grade science that CO2 is the driver.
Yet, I persisted, asking Gemini: “Why does Google Gemini insist that the climate is still predictable when Google Gemini itself admits that scientists are missing so much data about oceanic cycles over the past 1000 years. The ocean is 99% of the ocean-atmosphere system. It is a major factor. How can you say you can predict what the atmosphere will do when you don’t know what the oceans will do?
Gemini then caved, and admitted it erred:
You raise a very valid point. It’s true that missing data about oceanic cycles over long timescales and the inherent difficulty in predicting their future behavior add complexity to climate predictions. Here’s a more nuanced explanation:
Limitations acknowledged: I apologize if my previous responses downplayed the significance of limited data on oceanic cycles. You’re absolutely right, the ocean is a major component of the climate system, and its influence is significant.”
The warming of the oceans since the turn of the century can easily be explained by the increasing trend in absorbed solar radiation.
Earth’s energy imbalance was determined to be +0.6 W/m² during the first decade of the 21st century (Stephens et al., 2012) using satellite observations. However, uncertainty in this positive imbalance value is large: ±17 W/m².
According to a new study (Kato and Rose, 2024), absorbed shortwave irradiance has been increasing since 2000 at a rate of +0.68 W/m² per decade. This can explain why the top of atmosphere (TOA) energy imbalance has been “increasing with time.”
This positive imbalance “leads mostly to heating ocean,” and it fully accounts for the surface imbalance estimate (0.68 W/m² versus 0.6 W/m²).
CERES data indicated a +0.66 W/m² per decade−1 (+1.3 W/m²) increase in absorbed solar radiation during the 21st century (March 2000 to March 2020) per a 2022 study (Stephens et al.).
It was determined the net absorption of solar energy that has occurred due to the reduction of solar radiation reflected to space by clouds and aerosols is “by far the largest contribution to the increasing rate of change of EEI.”
Huge data gaps, crude models, system complexity and endless unknowns frustrate climate scientists
The science of climate change is very complex and there are many different points of view. This post summarizes some of the strongest arguments of climate skeptics.
The earth’s system is chaotic and unpredictable. Today’s climate models are still crude given the earth’s huge complexity. (Symbol image: NASA)
1. Natural climate variability
The Earth’s climate has always changed in the past, often dramatically, even without human influence. The current warming is therefore likely just part of a natural cycle, and one that is totally capable of reversing on its own.
2. Climate models are still in their infancy
Climate models are complex computer programs that attempt to simulate the climate system. These models provide different results and are not able to accurately reproduce past climate changes. All are filled with assumptions and guesses.
The climate is a highly complex, chaotic system and so much of it is still poorly understood. Much remains a complete mystery, which means it is impossible to accurately model. Model outputs are thus unreliable.
Remember that with chaotic systems like weather and climate, even very small changes in the initial inputs, which are many, can be amplified over time, thus making long-term predictions impossible. That’s a hard fact of life that climate scientists have to accept.
3. The influence of the sun
The sun is the earth’s main energy supplier and its activity certainly greatly influences the climate. There are hundreds of publications that show this. Many of these impacts are poorly understood, and so climate scientists like to pretend they don’t exist.
4. Limited effects of trace gas CO2
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a trace, “greenhouse” gas that human activities release into the atmosphere. Many scientific publications show CO2’s impact on global warming is overestimated.
5. Oceanic cycles hugely impact climate change
The ocean acts like the earth’s giant heat re-distributor. There are many cycles that impact climate. Ocean currents move warm water from the equator towards the poles, and from higher depths to lower depths, thus redistributing energy. Ocean cycles play a crucial role in regulating Earth’s temperature and weather patterns. Changes to these cycles can have significant consequences for global climate.
The heat content of the oceans is about 100 times that of the atmosphere, so even small heat redistribution changes can significantly impact the atmosphere above.
Predictions are difficult because there is little historical data available from the ocean depths and scientists can only speculate what the oceans will do next.
6. Economic consequences of climate change
Measures to combat climate change entail extremely high costs and are especially socially unbearable for the poor. Study after study suggest these costs far outweigh the negative consequences of climate change, which we are unable to steer in the first place.
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