Professor Fritz Vahrenholt wrote an expert assessment for the Liechtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services on the situation concerning Germany’s power grid stability and its current renewable energy policy. He says Germany needs an immediate and fundamental course correction if it wishes to avert a disaster.
Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt. Photo credit: DkS.
Costly for the consumer
Vahrenholt writes that already today Germany has the second highest electricity price (after Denmark) in Europe and that the so-called renewable energy feed-in tariff will rise from 6.35 €ct/kwh today “to an astounding 7.3 €ct/kwh in 2017“. Germany’s green energy feed-in act generates an additional cost to consumers of some 25 billion euros annually, paid by citizens via their power bill. This represents “a social transfer from bottom to top of immense dimensions“.
He stresses four main points in the GIS piece: 1) German consumers and industry pay a hefty price for Energiewende, 2) Technical problems within the German power grid are piling up as the government continues its breakneck drive to change the country’s energy mix, 3) Parts of Germany are already oversaturated with wind turbines and 4) not surprisingly other states are not following the German example as they grapple for their responses to the energy and climate issue.
He notes that unless a drastic course change is enacted, the future looks bleak.
Irrational fear
The driving force behind the socially unstable, frenzied energy policy is an irrational fear that we will irreparably damage our climate with CO2 – despite new scientific findings showing that CO2’s impact on the global climate has been vastly overstated by the IPCC.
The German professor blasts German Green Party in states where it is driving government plans to open forests to allow the construction of wind parks. “This is a catastrophe for most species of predatory birds and bats and the surrounding ecosystem.”
In his piece, Vahrenholt also pleads it is high time for the German federal government to acknowledge that it makes no sense to build additional wind turbines in many areas, as there’s no place for surplus energy to go on windy days.
The German energy expert describes a rising citizens’ resistance to expanding wind energy, but that it may not be enough to deter the government from continuing on its ruinous path. He envisions two possible (gloomy) scenarios for Germany by the year 2020. To find out, readers will have to obtain them from GIS.
That the IPCC assessment of the influence of CO2 on climate is overstated is an understatement.
Science shows that non-condensing ghg (including CO2) have no significant effect on climate. Water vapor, the only ghg which condenses, is one of the three significant climate drivers. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
The average amount of time that passes between when a molecule of CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs a photon until it emits one (the relaxation time) is about 6 microseconds (values from 6 to 10 microseconds are reported) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49709540302/abstract . Heat is conducted in the atmosphere by collisions between molecules. The average time between collisions of molecules in the atmosphere at sea level conditions is less than 0.0002 microseconds http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/frecol.html .
Thus it is at least 30,000 times more likely that a collision will occur (thermal conduction) than a photon will be emitted. The process of a molecule absorbing the energy in a photon and conducting the energy to other molecules is thermalization. Thermalized energy carries no identity of the molecule that absorbed it.
Thermalization explains why CO2 has no significant effect on climate.
This provides a summary of the statements made by Professor David Mackay FRS in April 2016 in an final interview with Mark Lynas: sadly Professor Mackay died 11 days later.
Having been the chief scientist of the UK department of Energy and Climate Change for some 5 years in the frank interview, he let many cats out of many bags.
David Mackay entirely exposed the fallacy of using weather dependent Renewable Energy to power a western country: as he said “powering the UK with Renewable energy is an appalling delusion”
Even though he was a believer in action against climate change and tried to support Green thinking, he was more devoted to adherence to the laws of physics and the power of mathematics.
David Mackay’s called the thought of powering the UK with Renewables “an appalling delusion”. The key statements in this final video, can be summarised:
“whatever combination of renewable energy is used it will always fall far short of actual consumption in the UK” min 8+
“powering the UK with renewable energy is an appalling delusion” min 9.10+
“ pay attention to mathematics, the laws of physics, the realities of engineering” min 9.40
“intermittency is a real problem” min 9.50
“renewable proponents haven’t done the numbers to achieve proposed solutions” min 10.10
“winter” min 10.30
“batteries are not scalable” min 11.05
“if you can get through the winter, there is no point in adding expensive intermittent Renewables particularly wind and solar” min 14 – 15
“DECC always knew that solar was worthless in the UK” min 16+
“society needs reliability in its electrical system” min 18 +
“CCS is crucial” min 19: the author would disagree with this but as far as David Mackay was concerned it would allow the continued use of fossil fuels
“delusion about the ease of CO2 reduction and the error of not taking account of the simple mathematics” min 21
Astoundingly the interview is still available in the Guardian website.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/03/idea-of-renewables-powering-uk-is-an-appalling-delusion-david-mackay
but also on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCyidsxIDtQ