Russia Searching For Reliable Climate Data

The German version of RIA Novosti reports that Russia hopes to gain more precise weather forecasts, new findings on global warming and improved exploration of new oil and gas reserves from its planned, new Arktika Satellite system. http://de.rian.ru/science/20100429/126119398.html

The Arktika System, which is made up of 5 satellites,  is a whole new instrument that will deliver absolutely new data on climate change says Alexander Bedrizki, Climate Appointee of the Russian President.  The project will allow continous observation of the Arctic 24 hours per day and be able to measure water temperature and ice thickness. The project will also have economic value because the Arctic holds huge oil and gas reserves. The project will also enable commerical flights to pass over the Arctic.

Alexander Frolow Director of the Russian Weather Service hopes to generate more accurate weather forecasts and to better assess events such as the recent Iceland volcano eruption which was above 60° north latitude.  Current satellite systems were not able to accurately track the cloud of ash from afar.

Russian aerospace company Lawotschkin will begin work on the project this year. Two communications satellites, two waether satellites and a radar satellite for measring ice  and exploring natural resources will be developed and launched into space.

Melting Canadian Snows Uncover Medieval And Roman Warm Periods

Melting mountain snow in the Canadian Mackenzie Mountains has uncovered ancient weapons used by early hunters. In the Canadian Mackenzie Mountains scientists have found weapons up to 2400 years old, reports Tom Andrews of the Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Centre in Yellowknife and his colleagues in a press release from the Arctic Institute of North America.

http://www.arctic.ucalgary.ca/main/documents/media_release_pdfs/Melting%20ice%20reveals%20ancient%20artifacts.pdf

 Scientists suspect that hunters followed herds escaping mosquitoes and heat during the hot summers. Caribou was an important food source.

 The results of their findings have been extraordinary. Andrews and his team have found 2400-year-old spear throwing tools, a 1000-year-old ground squirrel snare, and bows and arrows dating back 850 years. Biologists involved in the project are examining caribou dung for plant remains, insect parts, pollen and caribou parasites. It is very likely that snow and ice today still covers more ancient relicts.

 The findings and their dates of origin undercut warmists’ claims that the Medieval Warm Period did not exist, or was localised in Europe, and that today’s warm period is unprecedented. The age of the found artefacts correspond to the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period.  Ancient artefacts recovered in the Alps tell the same story.

H/T: http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/

Run! Seas Rising 49 Microns Per Year

Melting sea ice is causing sea levels to rise 49 micorons per year (3/16 of an inch over 100 years), according to research published in Geophysical Research Letters. Read more here:  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100428142258.htm

Peak & Trade: German PIK Scientists Propose Per Capita Climate Quota

Rudolf Kipp of http://www.science-skeptical.de/blog/deutsche-klimaforscher-starten-neuen-rettungsversuch-fur-ein-globales-klimaabkommen-die-klima-kopfpauschale/002480/  reports on the latest German plan to save the planet: Peak and Trade. This is my summary in English.

Without a doubt the Copenhagen Climate Conference last December was a major flop. A treaty for reducing CO2 emissions could not find the support it needed. The conference was such a disaster that a climate agreement is all but ruled out for 2010 as well. So, what to do?

Policy Shift in Germany
The Potsdamer Institute for Climate Impact Research, which includes alarmists Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, has been the primary advisor for chancellor Angela Merkel, and have arguably lost much clout since the embarrassment that was Copenhagen.

To get things back on track, PIK has come up with a new position paper that outlines a whole new approach that could lead to a breakthrough in climate treaty negotiations. It’s dubbed New Strategies for Reaching the 2°C max Climate Target, a scheme which the PIK calls Peak and Trade. It calls for a so-called per capita climate quota, see here (Abstract written in English). http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/publications/pikreports/.files/pr116.pdf

The PIK scientists call for allocating a quota of 5 tonnes of CO2 to every inhabitant on earth. Should an earthling exceed the quota, then payment would be made into a fund (a yet to be created World Climate Bank). If the quota is not reached, then money would come out of the fund as a reward.

This of course becomes very attractive for the poorest of countries, and very expensive for industrious nations. For example the average American emits 16.9 tonnes of CO2 – more than three times the quota. Yet, some European countries with high amounts of hydroelectric or nuclear power are well-positioned. For example Sweden and Switzerland emit on average 5.6 tonnes, the French 6.3 tonnes. The financial punishment of Peak & Trade would be mild and thus bearable.

The per capita climate quota is very attractive for developing countries
Before anyone writes this idea off as crazy, take a close look at the numbers and who the potential winners and losers would be. But first, where does the 5.1 tonnes of CO2 per earthling number come from? The authors of the paper simply have taken the projected 2015 CO2 emissions figure of 35 billion tonnes and divided it by the current world population of 6.9 billion. Copenhagen failed in part because of resistance from the developing countries, especially Brazil, China and India. They just didn’t see enough incentives. These countries however are well below the magic 5.1 tonne quota – especially Brazil and India, and so now they have ample reason to enthusiastically support Peak and Trade.  It’s reasonable to think this is the instrument to get them back on board.

The per capita climate quota is also an incentive for population growth (and poverty)
Poor developing countries now stand to rake in the cash. The more inhabitants and the poorer the standard of living, the more money a country stands to pull in. That could be an irresistable incentive for many countries. The humanitarian problem with this German Meisterwerk of a plan now becomes clear: governments and regimes in poor countries would have no incentive to improve living standards for their citizens, and thus keep CO2 emissions at low levels. The funds earned by falling below the 5.1 tonne quota of course would never be seen by the poor citizens. Most likely these funds would flow into in the hands of corrupt government officials and into anonymous bank accounts in Switzerland.

Readers may think this is some far-fetched idea. It is – and that’s the danger. These things are often hatched by social engineering experimentalists here in Europe and they always seem to grow legs. Don’t underestimate it. Peak and Trade has to be killed.

Another Russian Scientist: Arctic Is Cooling

Yet another Russian scientist believes the Arctic is set for cooling and thus increasing sea ice, this reported in the German version of the Russian online news RIA NOVOSTI (see links below). Scientist Vladimir Sokolov says:

The warming that occurred in the Arctic has swung back to cooling and sea ice that melted over the past years is recovering.

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100427/126088756.html, The English version is here: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100427/158771845.html

Arctic sea ice reached a historic minimum in 2007 when it shrank to 4.28 million sq km. But the trend now appears to have reversed. According to the weather observation administration Roshydromet, it has grown by a fifth reaching 5.2 million square km in 2009, Sokolov said at the Petersburg Research Insttitute for the Arctic and Antarctic on Tuesday.

Sokolov calls predictions of continued shrinking Arctic ice “incorrect”.

He says the cooling is due to the polar night and the associated missing sunlight, and this as a result will lead to ice formation. Some scientists are warning that politicians and corporations who promise lucrative oil and gas projects in the Arctic may have made dramatic miscalculations. The researchers say that no warming will take place, instead cooling will impact the earth over the next decades.

Cameron's Hypocritical Climate Crusade

Recently Hollywood director James Cameron participated in a panel discussion together with economist Tom Friedman, actress Sigourney Weaver, and MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough. Cameron called Climate Change ‘As Great As The Threat’ U.S. Faced in World War II. To me, watching some Hollywood stars give advice on saving the planet is like watching lumberjacks talk about how to do heart surgery. In both cases the result is the same: the patient dies.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/64516

Cameron’s humble abode

Climate protection starts at home. According to more than one source. Cameron’s humbe abode has 8,272 square feet and boasts 6 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, pool, tennis court and inner courtyard fit for Hollywood royalty – perfect to sit around in with like-minded stars and worry about the “dying planet”, all the while the private jet sits on the tarmac getting refuelled and the chauffeured limousine waits outside.

http://realestock.com/joomla/blog/Inside-the-Homes-of-2010s-Oscar-Nominees.html (scroll down)

Making everyone miserable

Perhaps Cameron’s arrogance, hypocrisy and insistence the rest of the working masses sacrifice more while he continues to live high on the hog has something to do with a character disorder.  According to Wikipedia collaborator and author Orson Scott Card calls Cameron, who has been married five times, selfish and cruel. He said working with him was “hell on wheels”.  Card added, “He was very nice to me because I could afford to walk away. But he made everyone around him miserable, and his unkindness did nothing to improve the film in any way”.

Cameron’s real estate visions: community of a half dozen estates

http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2007/06/03/james-cameron-selling-730-acres-in-malibu-near-pepperdine-university/

The Incredible Shrinking Print Media

Many of us have made complaints about how the MSM is biased and reluctant to cover topics like Climategate and other scandals. Well take heart! People are waking up to the fact that they are being denied information and facts, and as a result they’re turning their backs on the main stream print media. Sure a part of it has to do with bad economic times (can’t blame that on Bush anymore), but another factor is that the internet offers an alternative. Here are the gory numbers for newspaper circulation in the US. Only the conservative Wall Street Journal has made gains. The rest are bleeding massively.

The Wall Street Journal 2,092,523 +0.5%
USA Today 1,826,622 -13.58%
New York Times 951,063 -8.47%
Los Angeles Times 616,606 -14.74%
Washington Post 578,482 -13.06%

Dallas Morning News 260,659 -21.47%
San Francisco Chronicle 241,330 -22.68%
The Star-Ledger, Newark, N.J. 236,017 -17.79%

Read the complete story here: http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1004086334

I’ve always encouraged tree-hugging subscribers to heed the advice from newspapers to cut CO2 emissions. And what better way to begin than to scale back the energy-guzzling industry of newspaper production, distribution and newspaper disposal? This can be done by cancelling subscriptions. This also rescues a lot of trees. So hats off to the tree-huggers out there who choose to save a tree by ending a subscription.

Dr Pokrovsky Replies

Dr Oleg Pokrovsky has kindly taken the time to provide further information on his recent remarks, which have been widely quoted. We thank him for doing so. He writes as follows and includes a link to a ppt. presentation (see below):

Dear Colleagues,

Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
-Solar activity
-SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
-Surface air temperature
– Surface irradiance
-Precipitations
-Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)
http://www.arctic-frontiers.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=242&Itemid=155

Please keep your comments focused on the contents Dr Pokrovsky’s presentation.

Russia: No Climate Deal in 2010

A new international agreement to replace the Kyoto environmental protocol will not be signed in 2010, the Russian presidential advisor on climate change has said. Read more:

http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100426/158743966.html

On April 16, Russian President Medvedev said:

All countries, including developed and developing economies, should reach an agreement, or, if we do not agree on this [the common terms of carbon emissions reduction], Russia will not prolong its participation in the Kyoto agreement – you cannot have it both ways.

http://en.beta.rian.ru/Environment/20100416/158607110.html

German Chancellor Gives Up On Binding Climate Treaty!

Merkel No Longer Backs World Climate Treaty

That’s the headline announcing a report in the upcoming issue of Der Spiegel. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is retreating from the objective of reducing global CO2 emissions through a binding global treaty. http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/0,1518,691013,00.html

…Merkel wants to avoid another debacle for Germany and Europe in the UN climate negotiations.

According to Der Spiegel, the climate conference that began in Petersberg near Bonn on Sunday shifts the focus to climate protection measures that can lead to measurable results without a binding treaty.

Federal Minister of the Environment Norbert Röttgen of Merkel’s CDU party told SPIEGEL of the new approach:

It’s not about giving up on the 2°C target; rather it is about finding new ways to reach it. At Petersburg  we want to create a new level on which we not only want to reach CO2 targets from the top,  but also to start projects from the bottom that lead to measurable results.

This includes protection of forests and more concrete cooperation in the transfer of environmentally friendly technologies.

Make no mistake about it, without the cooperation of Germany any global binding treaty mandating CO2 reductions becomes extremely unlikely, and that sends a clear signal that global Cap & Trade is all but dead. The US Senate can (and should) now kill Cap & Trade for good.

H/t: Rudolf Kipp at http://www.science-skeptical.de/

UPDATE…read the entire Der Spiegel article here in English (h/t Brian H): http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,691194,00.html

Shoot FromThe Hip – Shot From The Hip

A few days ago I wrote a post about how Reuters wasted no time blaming the outbreak of a fungus disease in the U.S. Northwest and British Columbia on climate change: http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/23/were-to-blame/.

Of course this was just another example of wreckless media speculation and wishful thinking by those who simply can’t wait for the coming manmade climate catastrophe. They really are pretty desparate. The claim has already been completely debunked at World Climate Report: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/.

Russian Scientist: 4% More Antarctic Sea Ice – Ozone Hole Cooling Antarctica

The April 21, 2010 German edition of the Russian news website RIA Novosti has a piece with a possible explanantion as to why Antarctic sea ice is expanding while the rest of the globe is warming. http://de.rian.ru/science/20100421/126005955.html

A Russian scientist believes it is due to the ozone hole over the South Pole. According to Alexander Klepikov of the Research Instritute for Arctic and Antarctic at the Conference Maritime Research of Polar Regions of the Earth in the International Polar Year:

Over the last 3o years of satellite measurement, the growth of the ice amount in the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica was more than 4 percent.

Klepikov emphasised that sea ice growth around the Antarctic coast was irregular and occurred at different areas. There was an especially large amount of sea ice growth in the Ross Sea located in the western part of the Pacific sector. Klepikov says British researchers, using mathematical models and analysis of meteorological data, could attribute the increasing sea ice trend to the so-called ozone anomaly in the South Pole region.

Reduced ozone concentrations over the South Pole leads to cooling of the upper atmosphere, and eventually leads to a strengthening of the circumpolar circular flow – winds that blow along the Antarctic coast and protect the Antarctic zone against the effects of warmer air. The same mechanism has the opposite effect on the Larsen Ice Shelf, causing increased melting.

Has Stalin Moved To The MSM?

Have you ever read something about yourself in the newspaper and thought: “Man, they got it wrong”?

Yesterday I summed up in English and posted a German-language piece put out directly by RIA Novosti (see post from yesterday) http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html.  Then a few hours later WUWT posted an English version of the same story released by the UPI. The two versions could hardly be different. It’s one thing to get some things wrong, but it’s quite another to write a whole new story.

1. The UPI opens with:

A Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder, not warmer, which…

But the German version, direct from RIA Novosti, says:

Not warming, but cooling will impact the Earth’s climate over the next few years….

2. The UPI wrote:

An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998

But the German version says:

The climate has been cooling since 1998…  

When translating, you’ll rarely get it 100% right. Translators try to get as close as possible. But here there really is no excuse for screwing up cooling will impact the Earth’s climate and writing instead: Arctic may be getting colder.  In no. 2 they translate “climate to “Arctic“!

The UPI then leaves out (censors?) a large portion of the text as well. For an issue on which the future of humanity hinges, one that is as grave as WWII, the UPI translation sure was awfully careless. It gets a failing grade. Readers – check your sources!

Russian Scientist: Expect Cooling – Pols Sitting On The Wrong Horse

http://de.rian.ru/science/20100423/126040500.html

In the German edition of Ria Novosti, Russian scientist Oleg Pokrovsky of the Main Geophysical Observatory says the world should expect cooling – and not warming – and that this will interfere with Russia’s plans to exploit the Arctic’s rich resources. The climate has been cooling since 1998.

At a climate research conference for the Arctic and Antarctic in St. Petersburg, Friday, Pokrovsky said the Earth’s temperature fluctuates in 60-year cycles.

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Pokrovsky adds:

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.

UPDATE,  4/26/2010: Here’s the RIA NOVOSTI English version: http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html

UPDATE 2: Dr Pokrovsky replies here: http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/04/27/dr-pokrovsky-replies/

We're To Blame

A new potentially dangerous fungus seems to have appeared in the Northwest US and British Columbia, this according to Reuters. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N22129903.htm

‘This novel fungus is worrisome because it appears to be a threat to otherwise healthy people,’ said Edmond Byrnes of Duke University in North Carolina, who led the study.

When I was reading this, I thought it’s just a question of time, maybe a few days, before someone claims it’s all because of climate change. Well I didn’t have to wait long. The last sentence of the report:

Freezing can kill the fungus and climate change may be helping it spread, the researchers said.

So there it is. Everytime something potentially threatening appears, the first suspect is automatically climate change. It’s gotten that bad.

Actually Thoughtful – Would Be Nice

This is in response to some good questions/points by reader Actually Thoughtful in my previous post.

Indeed environmental restrictions have made a contribution in cleaning up the environment. But technology, awareness and the overall continued path of progress have also made major contributions. And keep in mind that placing stifling regulation on industries at home often prompts them to move to countries where they are allowed to produce more pollution, and more cheaply. So the net result is MORE pollution, not less, and lost jobs. I guess we could impose rigid environemntal regulations on poor coutries like China, India, Mexico etc., but if you’re honest you have to agree that they just aren’t that far yet.

This reminds me a little of the bio-fuels debacle. Sure biofuels are renewable and can cut fossil fuel CO2, but we have seen the far greater unintended catastrophic consequence on food prices and accelerated deforestation. This is one example of the importance of thinking things through first.  Sending the masses and policy makers into an uncontrolled, panicked stampede won’t work. Best is to explain it over time, and step by step we’ll get there in an orderly way. Hard working people are capable of understanding.

On feeding the hungry, huge progress has been made thanks to great strides in agricultural technology, expansion of free market principles throughout the globe, improved transportation and logistics, refrigeration and information management. Adam’s Smith’s invisible hand has played a huge role. Indeed the environment does best in developed, free-market oriented countries.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWsx1X8PV_A

Ideology? I prefer to leave it out of science.

Earth Day – The Broken Record That Never Stops

I noticed Google today had a graphic up, as it often does, that you can click on. What’s the occasion today? Oh! It’s Earth Day!

Earth Day was started by Gaylord Nelson, the Democratic senator from Wisconsin. It was the single largest national demonstration in American history. 20 million Americans participated in the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970.

What did Earth day preach back in 1970? Here are some examples from washingtonpolicy.org:

• By 1995, “…somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.” Sen. Gaylord Nelson, quoting Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, Look magazine, April 1970.

• Because of increased dust, cloud cover and water vapor “…the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born,Newsweek magazine, January 26, 1970.

The world will be “…eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age,” Kenneth Watt, speaking at Swarthmore University, April 19, 1970.

• “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” biologist Barry Commoner, University of Washington, writing in the journal Environment, April 1970.

• “By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…” Life magazine, January 1970.

• Paul Ehrlich predicted that in 1973, 200,000 Americans would die from air pollution, and that by 1980 the life expectancy of Americans would be 42 years.

• “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” wrote Earth Day organizer Denis Hayes, The Living Wilderness, Spring 1970.

• “By the year 2000…the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America and Australia, will be in famine,” Peter Gunter, North Texas State University, The Living Wilderness, Spring 1970.

Sound familiar? Of course these prophets of doom were wrong – spectacularly wrong. Today things are much better by almost every measure. Four decades later the apocalypse has been pushed back 50 or 100 years, and this time it will be caused by manmade global warming.  This time, they insist, they are certainly right. You see, now they’ve got computer models!

The circus continues.

Source of Earth Day 1970 predictions: http://www.washingtonpolicy.org/pressroom/pressreleases/4_22_2008.html

M4GW Capitulates – Free Speech Takes A Body Blow!

Having received a request to cease and desist airing the famous self-made “Hide the Decline” G-rated YouTube political satire video, the Minnesotans For Global Warming have grown weak-kneed and decided to take down the video, which had been viewed more than half a million times on YouTube and was even featured on the Rush Limbaugh show (20 million listeners). But Michael Mann, the target of its satire, was not amused. And when the cat says meow, mice run.

Of course I’m not familiar with the details and legal fine points of the issue, but I have seen much worse go unchallenged. When George W. Bush was President, much worse videos were made. Barack Obama has to take the same treatment too – like all public figures.  Obviously the video had gotten under Mann’s thin skin. Mann, a professor at Penn State, creator of the phony, discredited hockey stick graph, a public employee as far as I know, has demanded that the M4GW stop practicing its right to free speech.

Personally I can’t believe the M4GW waved the white flag so quickly. I thought they had more guts than that. But I guess Beauregard’s French genes got the best of him. Now some goofball No Cap & Trade organisation will have to storm the beach and take the bullets.  M4GW have sent a disturbing message by cutting and running.

They ought to put the video back up and take Mann on like a man.

And what do I think of the NO Cap & Trade Hide the Decline II?  It’s crap. But I’m sure they’ll be enough dim bulbs out there who will accept it and think it’s cute.  Bring back the original!

FOX Covers IPCC's False Advertising

Donna Laframboise’s Citizens’ Audit shook the IPCC’s credibility to the core last week after revealing that 21 chapters of the IPCC 2007 AR4 report got an “F” because more than 40% of the literature they cited wasn’t peer-reviewed. The IPCC cited newspaper and magazine clippings, student theses, newsletters, discussion papers and even a boot cleaning manual from an Antractic cruise company. Fox News covers the findings of the audit here: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/19/united-nations-climate-global-warming-ipcc/

The team, recruited by the climate-change skeptics behind the website NoConsensus.org, found that 5,600 of the 18,500 sources in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Nobel Prize-winning 2007 report were not peer reviewed.

In June 2008, Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s chairman, said

People can have confidence in the IPCC’s conclusions, given that it is all on the basis of peer-reviewed literature. We don’t pick up a newspaper article and, based on that, come up with our findings.

For years the IPCC pitched it to the public as being based solely on peer-reviewed scientific literature, telling us that the report was the gold standard in scientific review.  Now we find out they have misled us. False advertising. The U.N. is not commenting in depth on the audit, but it has acknowledged its existence.