Russian Scientist: Extreme Central Russian Heat Wave Not An Indication Of A Future Climate Catastrophe

Photo source: http://de.rian.ru/science/20100811/257088668.html

Time to calm down everybody.

A Russian scientist says the regional heat wave taking place in Russia is not a sign of catastrophic climate change and that the permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago, and its rate of thawing is also not catastrophic.

This is what the German edition of the Russian online Ria Novosti writes here.

It’s more just a temporary natural occurrence, says Michail Kabanov, corresponding member of the Academy of Sciences and advisor of the Institute For Climate And Environmental Monitoring.

According to Michail Kabanov:

Deviations in one direction or the other, in this region or the other, are explained completely by the instability of the climate system. It meanders constantly and reaches various anomalies as a result, and does include extremes. The weather conditions of this year are precisely a result of this.

Scientists must still determine if this anomaly is part of a trend in one direction, i.e. global warming, or if it’s just another climate fluctuation says the scientist. According to Ria Novosti:

The earth also experienced climate warming in the past, which was then followed by cooling. The question is: To what extent does the anthropogenic factor effect the fluctuations?

Kabanow says the current drought is not the start of a future catastrophe. Rather it is simply one extreme event that rarely occurs.

Michail Kabanow also says the thawing of the permafrost also poses no threat to man. The permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago. The rate of thawing is by no means catastrophic.

The expert sees no approaching global catastrophe.

7 responses to “Russian Scientist: Extreme Central Russian Heat Wave Not An Indication Of A Future Climate Catastrophe”

  1. TinyCO2

    Another interesting article

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727730.101-frozen-jet-stream-leads-to-flood-fire-and-famine.html

    Frozen jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires

    [snip]

    There is some tentative evidence that the sun may be involved. Earlier this year astrophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading, UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over Europe when solar activity is low – triggering freezing winters (New Scientist, 17 April, p 6).

    Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events (Environmental Research Letters, in press). “There’s enough evidence to suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun,” he says.

    Blackburn says that blocking events have been unusually common over the last three years, for instance, causing severe floods in the UK and heatwaves in eastern Europe in 2007. Solar activity has been low throughout. [cont.]

    Reply: Thanks for this interesting link. Gee, imagine that. The sun actually has an impact on the earth, unlike what the warmists have always otherwise insisted. -PG

  2. b

    No impending catastrophe? What fun is that? It also stifles all those lovely funding requests. Must be wrong.

  3. Mindert Eiting

    Congratulations with your new site. A bit off line here but interesting developments (next climategate?) on
    http://www.climatechangefraud.com/climate-reports/7491-official-satellite-failure-means-decade-of-global-warming-data-doubtful
    and nice comment on
    http://climaterealists.com/?id=6126

  4. R. de Haan

    Two interesting links here about our sun:

    1. http://www.iceagenow.com/Quiet_sun_warns_of_deadly_cold_and_snow_ahead.htm

    Watch the links offered in the article “The sun talks to the trees too”.

    2.
    When the sun goes tilt.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/12/solar-tilt/
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/12/solar-tilt/

  5. ArndB

    P. Gosselin at ABOUT: “I do believe that the activities of man have an impact on the environment, but more through land use and poor waste management practices.”

    This statement caught my attention, as I agree in full that man’s impact on the environment (weather) should be a matter of concern. Among the numerous activities of man the CO2 issue is presumably a minor one, if not a negligible matter. What your opinion completely neglects is the impact of the oceans and seas, which I suggested to emphasise by defining: “Climate is the continuation by the oceans by other means” Letter to the Editor, NATURE 1992, “Climate Change”, Vol. 360, p. 292; http://www.whatisclimate.com/1992-nature.html. , whereby “Means” particularly refer to water and heat.

    While it is good to hear Michail Kabanov’s view that the current weather extremes are not a “sign of catastrophic climate change”, it is hardly helpful to read his explanation by saying: “It’s more just a temporary natural occurrence. …..Deviations in one direction or the other, in this region or the other, are explained completely by the instability of the climate system.”
    The current heat wave in Russia is at least partly caused by a “blocking” (#TinyCO2). It is evident from recent weather maps. The west-wind drift is not going as usually, denying Western Russia to receive maritime (wet) air. The winter 2009/10 was the coldest in North Europe for about 30 years. After a cold winter the Baltic Sea is colder than usually. The colder the Baltic Sea (and other regional waters) during spring and early summer are, the more they support continental conditions, resulting in less humidity, less clouds, but more sun shine in Russia. Even if this scenario contributed only to a small percentage to the current Russian summer, it should be investigated and named.

    As most of all instability of the weather (climate) system derive from a change in the ocean physical processes, any reference to the “instability of the climate system” should be met with reservation. Particularly the oceans and seas should get more attention. “The ocean acts like a fly-wheel in the climate system” (B.R. Stanton, 1992, Climate Change (18), p.175f).
    All success and a lot of joy with your new web-log.

    Reply:Thanks Arnd. I very much agree with you. Of course the oceans play a major role in regulating and impacting climate. But aren’t ocean cycles, blocking, etc. climatic instabilities? And certainly I would never neglect the oceans. I just want to say that man also plays a (lesser) role through UHI and landuse, in addition. – PG

  6. ArndB

    Many thanks for positive reply. But what to answer on: “climatic instabilities”. I try in brief. At most it means: “average weather instability”, which in my view explains: NOTHING.

    The Glossary of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) says in brief: “Weather is the state of the atmosphere, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities”, whereby ___The “present weather” table consists of 100 possible conditions, ___with 10 possibilities for “past weather”, while ____Popularly, weather is thought of in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. AMS is silent of “future weather” (more at: http://www.whatisclimate.com/ ). Any instability in the weather system should be investigated with regard to one or more “weather components”, but not named ‘climate variability or instability’.

    Yesterday World-Climate-Report (12. Aug.) commented on the “The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010” http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2010/08/12/the-great-russian-heat-wave-of-2010/#more-443. Regrettably they cover only the time period since 1950. That is a pity, as the winters 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/42 had been much more severe as the last winter in Europe, but – to the best of my knowledge (my field of investigation is the winter period) -, the following summers had been sunny and hot. Did a unusually cold Baltic/North Sea contributed? More than six decades have passed since the 1940s and World-Climate-Report concludes on the current Russian Heat Wave: ______“We don’t know. And lacking that knowledge, it is hard to ascertain what role other factors such as urbanization, smoke, or global warming may have had in making this summer a record summer in western Russia.” No word about the ocean and seas.

    Could it be that the atmosphere is “under stress” because some ocean regions are getting colder? At least some say so:
    ___ N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. , u.a. (2008) ; “Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector”; NATURE, Vol 453, 1 May 2008,
    “……….we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly,….”
    ____http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/is-the-cold-weather-coming/, Guest Post by Bryan Leyland: El Nino/La Nina effect (SOI) predicts global cooling by the end of 2010.
    Regards