The September Arcus Sea Ice Forecast, August Report, is out, and quite naturally, the doom and gloom projections of a death spiral have returned to the closet, at least until next June.
The mean of the 16 projections provided by scientists is 4.9 +/- 0.51 million square kilometers, which is likely to be lower than what the final result will end up being. The July Report outlook was 4.8 +/- 0.62 million square kilometers. Even that knucklehead Wilson sobered up and realised that his July projection of 1.o million square kilometres was perhaps just a tad too low.
The June report outlook is shown below for comparison.
Why not make a projection for next year? NOAA is forecasting a brutally cold Arctic winter, meaning colder than normal, La Nina is strengthening, and the major ocean cycles have switched. These all point to more ice for next year. I’ll project 5.75 million square kilometers for September 2011. That’s what my top secret super model says. (PS: Don’t tell my wife!).
3 responses to “Scientists Forced To Revise Arctic Sea Ice Projections Upwards”
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I’m a little bit disappointed by “Wilson”, i thought he/she would stick to his/her outlandish 1,000,000.
The December 31, 2010 ice extent numbers per JAXA appear to be headed for a record low, but it is too early to tell what the 2011 minimum will be.
Which source are you using to verify the accuracy of your guess?
Are you forecasting the September minimum or the September average?
Are you forecastng area or extent?
If it is the minimum ice extent per NSIDC a level of 5.75 million km2 has a very low confidene level of beng correct since the ice has not been at this level since 2006.
Per the NSIDC, ice extent dropped to its lowest extent for 2010 on September 19, at 4.60 million km2; therefore, you are guessing that there will be an increase of over 1.1 million km2 in the minimum for 2011. Single year increases of this magnitude are rare. While a minimum of 5.75 million km2 is possible, it is not likely.
My guess for 2011 is a range of 4.1 million km2 to 5.1 million km2 for the NSIDC determined September minimum, although it is too early to make an acurate guess. This range is between the 2007 low and the September 2009 minimum, which was the highest minimum level in the last 4 years.
Your focus on Arctic winter temperatures as an indicator of the September minimum is incorrect since it is summer weather conditions which determine the melt. Winter temperatures have not been shown to be a good indicator of September minimum extent. In 2010 the Arctic had its latest start to the melt season and ice extent approached the mean extent at the end of March, but this did not prevent June of 2010 from setting a new record low ice extent and the September minimum was the third lowest minimum extent observed in the satellite records. Likewise, a record low ice extent at the end of December 2010 does not guarantee that the 2011 minimum will be lower than the 2010 minimum.
Do you have a prediction for the year in which the minimum extent will recover to the 6.71 million km2 level, which is the NSIDC determined average minimum for the period 1979 to 2000?