German Public Television 1972 Projections For 2000

This is how ZDF German Public television envisioned how life in the year 2000 could appear back in 1972. Hat-tip Michael Miersch here.

Part 1 (Youtube video): Living and going to work (

The first part shows a man named Mr B living in a futuristic, electronic apartment. In the year 2000 people have to work only 25 hours per week, and can live with artificial hearts. Breakfast is prepared automatically and that all food is free of poisons because it is organically produced, free of pesticides and chemicals.

There are no printed newspapers – people get their news from a “printer” twice a day. Everyone lives in huge high rise apartment buildings with 2000 units, each equipped with international satellite TV that can be watched 24 hours per day. Shopping is done by radio-teleshopping; purchases are booked direct from his bank account.

Mr B communicates with friends using a “TV telephones” (smoking is still politically correct).

People don’t visit each other anymore – they converse via TV screen. Sociologists warn of the isolation of man by technology.

Mr B. does not use a conveying sidewalk to go the short distance to the train station when he goes to work, he walks. The air is now clean again because pollution was banned in 1990. Some even called for the death penalty for polluters. He works in another city 80 km away. No problem though, the jet-engine powered 500 km/hr commuter monorail train needs only 15 minutes. At the station he rents an electric city-car, which are readily available at all transportation hubs.

Part 2: At work in the year 2000, and the environmental hell of 1972.

The electric cars are automatically navigated. At work a massive network of people-conveyors take him through the huge maze of buildings. He works at a databank center that sells data to customers. All data is stored at a massive data storage centers and systems. For example, the databanks deliver critical data to politicians almost instantly so that they can always make the right decisions.

Everything is automated, and so Mr B has lots of time on his hands at work – no stress. That’s the way it is for millions of highly skilled workers like him, who only need to sit around and monitor the automated systems. As he sits around, he thinks about what he’ll do when he retires at the age of 50.

Retirement in the year 2000 is a problem too, as people have yet to figure out how spend all that free time on their hands. This is how ZDF imagined life could be in the year 2000 back in 1972.

At the 6 min mark, the show returns back to the reality of 1972. Here ZDF bemoans that 14 million cars jam the streets of West Germany. They pollute the air and threaten to choke the citizens in a sea of metal, exhust and noise. Cars are a symbol of freedom, but in reality they condemn the people to being stuck in traffic jams. The car – it kills 17,000 and injures 500,000 every year. Millions of tons of sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and lead are blown yearly into the atmosphere.

Air pollution in urban areas is already at the allowable limits. The SST pollutes the entire stratosphere and creates extreme noise – all to save 3 hrs of flight time. ZDF says we’ve poisoned the biosphere and food chain with our pesticides. Industry has polluted the water so much that clean water will be a luxury product in just a few years. Germany’s Lake Constanz will soon look like Lake Erie. It will take 50 to 100 years before Lake Erie returns to a natural condition.

Part 3: Man is destroying the planet – we have precious little time to save it

Part 3 looks at life and the environment as it was in 1972. The film starts with:

Industrialization brought prosperity to many, but a threat to all. Industrialization favors the concentration of capital and assets in the hands of a few.

The clip then describes the growing gap between the haves and have-nots. Up to 800,000people (from 60 million) live in poverty. The film says that by1980, half a million students will jam into the universities, where only half will be able find housing, and classroom will be overfilled, leading to riots and civil unrest.

ZDF complained that the field of medicine is outdated, and Germany is falling behind. 30% of all hospital beds were made in the 1920s.

ZDF then asks a series of pessimistic questions. Will the political system be able to quickly enough make the decisions necessary to bring the country forward to meet the challenges of the year 2000?  How will the family survive? How will the workplace change? Automation threatens to turn workers into mere monitors.

For millions there isn’t going to be any work.”

Another problem is that the economy produces more food then what is needed. Europe destroys the surplus of food while people starve in other places on the globe. ZDF then juxtaposes this with military spending, which amounts to 600 billion German Marks annually. “For the first time in history, man is capable of destroying the planet.

The only choice is either we live together, or die together.”

ZDF then complains that technology is advancing too quickly; we can’t keep up and that we don’t really know what we’re getting ourselves into. Since WWII, millions of tons of concrete have been transformed into living units. Now everywhere the landscape is littered with high rise apartment buildings. No one thought about the impact on man and society. No research is being done to see where all this is taking us. The ZDF clip ends with a quote:

‘The capability of man to thoughtlessly destroy the environment is practically without limits,’ says an American scientist. Poiliticans face the challenge of stopping the destruction before it becomes too late. For that we have very little time.”

End

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Today we see that life is much better and different than what ZDF predicted in 1972. Lake Erie is also clean again. Sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide have long since been replaced by life-giving CO2 as the big threat to humanity and nature. The dire prophesies never came true – even though there was a consensus among the “experts”.

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!

The Japan That Says No; Rejects Carbon Trading – “Major Setback”

Japan has decided to back out of carbon trading, likely from intense pressure from industry. This will no doubt disappoint many in organized crime, read here and here.

According to the online Environmental Leader:

A September survey of Japan’s largest business lobby group, found that 95% of companies surveyed oppose carbon trading, citing competition from countries like India and China that are not bound by similar pollution limits, reported Bloomberg.”

Japan’s government also said it won’t support an extension of  the Kyoto Protocol after its greenhouse-gas emissions targets expire in 2012, calling the treaty “outdated” because it only regulates 27 percent of global emissions, and doesn’t include the U.S. and China, reported Bloomberg.”

Meanwhile the Financial Times Deutschland here reports the same in a piece called: CO2 Trade No Longer In Vogue. The FTD blamed pressure from industry for leading to Japan’s decision to back out of the scheme, and added:

The decision is a major setback for the once praised system that was touted as a way to achieve environmental protection using  market economy means.”

Turns out that the Japanese have determined that it’s not very market economy-friendly after all.

The USA, under its newly elected Congress, have also signalled it will reject any trading scheme. Japan meanwhile is planning hefty taxes on carbon fuels and is considering energy feed-in traiffs like those used in Germany for supporting renewable energy.

Coldest Swedish December In 110 Years – Contradicts Recent “Detailed” Projections Of Warm Winters

Sweden’s English language The Local has the following headline today:

Coldest December in Sweden in 110 years

The last few days of the year look to be very cold throughout Sweden, according to a forecast by the Swedish meteorological agency SMHI.
This means that several parts of Sweden, including the southern region Götaland and eastern Svealand, will have experienced the coldest December in at least 110 years.”

Read the complete article here.

This reality of course flies in the face of what climate models had predicted earlier. The SMHI (Sweden’s Met Office and devout warmist organisation) keeps archives, and so I thought surely there must be something there that had earlier forecast warmer winters for Sweden. I didn’t have to look very long to find it.

First there’s this report dated 16 September 2010 here: New climate projections indicate more extreme weather. Here are just a couple of excerpts (Warning – you might first want to tie your butt to yourself to keep from laughing it off!):

New climate projections for severe weather situations in 100 years also show that truly cold days will virtually disappear.”

And:

The new scenarios show the effects of global warming with more details than before, thanks to more computer power and high geographical resolution.”

And:

‘As a whole, the new ensembles are an important foundation for continued climate research. However, they can already be applied to many areas,’ says Grigory Nikulin.”

Does he mean like governments preparing for winters? And finally:

Truly cold weather, such as -10°C in Spain or -30°C in southern Sweden, is unlikely to occur in future.”

How stupid must they feel now? The assertions made above likely stem in part from an SMHI-published report 2 years ago called: Temperature and precipitation changes in Sweden; a wide range of model-based projections for the 21st century.

The report analyzed the climate change signal for Sweden in scenarios for the 21st century in a large number of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), used in the AR4 by the IPCC.

At the SMHI Rossby Centre, regional climate models were run under different emission scenarios and driven by a few AOGCMs. They used the results of the runs as a basis in climate change in Sweden. What did they find? (Crap, of course, but read it for yourself):

Projected responses depend on season and geographical region. Largest signals are seen in winter and in northern Sweden, where the mean simulated temperature increase among the AOGCMs (and across the emissions scenarios B1, A1B and A2) is nearly 6°C by the end of the century, and precipitation increases by around 25%. In southern Sweden, corresponding values are around +4°C and +11%.

Okay, it’s still a long way to the end of the 21st century. But as Sweden’s 2010 December-of-the-century shows, the models and calculations seem to have forgotten a few important details. Back to the drawing board!

Europol Arrests More Than 100 In Carbon Trading Fraud

!!! UPDATE: Read the Europol Press Release here !!!

– Estimated 5 billion euros in damage for European taxpayers
– Massive fraud involving criminal networks / Middle East

Hat tip Reader Dirk H.

Here’s more proof that trading of CO2 emission certificates is fraught with fraud and attracts seedy criminal organizations – all costing the consumers and taxpayers billions.

Worse yet, it has spread out of control and appears that the authorities can’t keep up.

The Austrian online Kleine Zeitung here reports that Europol have raided an elaborate CO2 emissions scam in Italy and have arrested more than 100 persons.

The Kleine Zeitung writes: “The damage runs in the billions of euros”.

According to Europol, the Italian tax authorities, directed by the Milan Prosecutor’s Office, have raided 150 companies in Italy. The fraud involves evasion of value added tax with CO2 emission certificates. More than 100 have been arrested and are suspected of being involved in organised crime.

The Kleiner Zeitung reports that the Italian Electric Utilities trading markets had earlier halted entire trading with emissions certificates “because a high number of abnormal transactions”. The loss in tax revenue just from VAT (MTIC (Missing Trader IntraCommunity Fraud) alone is estimated to be 500 million euros, the online Kleine Zeitung writes.

The fraud is widespread

According to reports, it’s been known since June of last year that criminal organizations have been using CO2-emissions trading for defrauding governments of value added tax.

This is not the first time that police raids of this scale have taken place. It’s the latest in a series of raids that have been carried out all over Europe this year, all involving the trading of CO2 emission certificates. It seems the authorities just can’t keep up with the multitudes of swindlers out there.

Norway, Switzerland and the EU countries Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovak Republic and Portugal are all among the countries trying to identify the network of criminals behind this massive fraud – a fraud with links to criminal networks operating outside the EU and in other continents, like the Middle East.

2500 investigators – trying to identify. That’s means they haven’t yet. That’s a lot of fraud. The fraud has spread from science to finance. Expect a meltdown – sooner than later.

UPDATE 2: Recall this Danish fraud: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6790

Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding.

UPDATE: Another one for the list – Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University

Cooling seems to be the trend. Photo source: NOAA.

Lately, the clueless among warmist scientists, governments and the MSM have been running around in deep snow with their global warming blinders on, denying the cold around them. Governments, entrusted to serve the citizens, really ought to start listening up and planning accordingly.

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Are we headed for global warming or cooling?

By Matt Vooro

For many years now a good number of non-AGW scientists, meteorologists, engineers, researchers and the like have looked at the possibilities of a cooling planet. I enclose some of the ones that I have noted  in my research. Indeed there is a significant number of scientists, academics, meteorologists and researchers who disagree with IPCC’s belief that the globe is very likely headed for unprecedented global warming due to man-made greenhouse gases.

The climate of this planet oscillates between periods of approximately 30 years of warming followed by approximately 30 years of cooling. Rather than 100 years of unprecedented global warming as predicted by IPCC, the global temperatures have leveled off and we seem to be heading for cooler weather.  

Lawrence Solomon in his article of 16 June, 2010 in the Toronto National Post commented on Professor Mike Hulme’s article about IPCC. The article can be found here at probeinternational.org. Hulme is a Professor of Climate Change in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia – the university of Climategate fame — is the founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and one of the UK’s most prominent climate scientists. Quoting Hulme, Solomon said:

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change misled the press and public into believing that thousands of scientists backed its claims on manmade global warming, according to Mike Hulme, a prominent climate scientist and IPCC insider. The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was “only a few dozen experts” he states in a paper for Progress in Physical Geography, co-authored with student Martin Mahony.”

Professor Hulme’s paper can be found at fabiusmaximus

It would appear that IPCC underestimated the repetitive and significant impact of normal planetary cycles like the PDO, AO, AMO, NAO, ENSO, DEEP OCEAN CURRENTS [MOC], SOLAR CYCLES and UNEXPECTED PERIODS OF VOLCANIC ASH.

This is understandable as IPCC never had a mandate to study all causes of global warming but only the man induced component which seems to be dwarfed by natural planetary factors, which other scientists are now finding out. Read papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.

Here is a list of 31 different international climate scientists, academics, meteorologists, climate researchers and engineers who have researched this topic and who disagree with AGW science and IPCC forecasts, and are projecting much cooler weather for the next 1-3 decades.

    The List

1. Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University.

Setting up of the PDO cold phase assures global cooling for next approx. 30 years. Global warming is over.  Expect 30 years of global cooling, perhaps severe 2-5°F.”

He predicts several possible cooling scenarios: The first is similar to 1945-1977 trends, the second is similar to 1880-1915 trends and the third is similar to 1790-1820 trends. His latest article states:

Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.”

Read here, here and here.

2. Syun Akasofu, Professor of Geophysics, Emeritus, University of Alaska, also founding director of ARC
He predicts the current pattern of temperature increase of 0.5C /100 years resulting from natural causes will continue with alternating cooling as well as warming phases. He shows cooling for the next cycle until about 2030/ 2040.

And again a new paper ON THE RECOVERY FROM LITTLE ICE AGE – Read here.

3. Prof. Mojib Latif, Professor, Kiel University, Germany
He makes a prediction for one decade only, namely the next decade [2009-2019] and he basically shows the global average temperatures will decline to a range of about 14.18 C to 14.28 C  from 14.39 C  [eyeballing his graphs].

He also said that “you may well  enter  a decade or two of cooling relative to the present temperature level”, however he did not indicate when any two decades of cooling would happen or whether the  second decade after the next decade will also be cooling. Read here and here.

4. Dr. Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University. The BBC writes:

The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.”

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.”

Read here news.bbc.

5. Professor Anastasios Tsonis, Head of Atmospheric Sciences Group University of Wisconsin, and Dr. Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. msnbc writes:

We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 -30 years of cooler temperatures”

This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,”

Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years.”

Also read The mini ice age starts here at dailymail.co.uk/.

6. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University

A weak global cooling began from the mid-1940’s and lasted until mid-1970’s. I predict this is what we will see in the next few decades.”

Read colostate.edu.

7. Henrik Svensmark , Professor DTU, Copenhagen. Henrik Svensmark writes:

Indeed, global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary. This means that projections of future climate is unpredictable.”

Read here.

8. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, D.Sc., AboAkademi University, Finland

Therefore, prolonged low solar activity periods in the future may cause the domination of a strongly negative AO and extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.”

Read here.

9. Dr. Alexander Frolov, Head of Russia’s state meteorological service Rosgidromet. The Daily Mail.co.uk quotes Frolov:

‘From the scientific point of view, in terms of large scale climate cycles, we are in a period of cooling.

‘The last three years of low temperatures in Siberia, the Arctic and number of Russia mountainous regions prove that, as does the recovery of ice in the Arctic Ocean and the absence of warming signs in Siberia.”

And writes:

Mr. Tishkov, deputy head of the Geography Institute at Russian Academy of Science, said: ‘What we have been watching recently is comparatively fast changes of climate to warming, but within the framework of an overall long-term period of cooling. This is a proven scientific fact’.” 

10. Mike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environmental Physics, University of Reading, UK. Read BBC News here:   

The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.”

11. Dr. Oleg Pokrovsky, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory: Ria Novosti writes:

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.”

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.”

Read here NoTricksZone.

12. Girma Orssengo, b.Tech, MASc, PhD

These cool and warm PDO regimes correlate well with the cooling and warming phases of GMTA shown in Figure 3.

The model in Figure 3 predicts global cooling until 2030. This result is also supported by shifts in PDO that occurred at the end of the last century, which is expected to result in global cooling until about 2030 [7].”

Read WUWT and read here, and

In this article, a mathematical model was developed that agrees with observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly(GMTA), and its prediction shows global cooling by about 0.42 deg C until 2030. Also, comparison of observed increase in human emission of CO2 with increase in GMTA during the 20th century shows no relationship between the two. As a result, the claim by the IPCC of climate catastrophe is not supported by the data.”

‘Fossil fuels allowed man to live his life as a proud human, but the IPCC asserts its use causes catastrophic.’ “

Read here at WUWT.

13. Nicola Scafetta, PhD.
Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040.”

Read here

14. Dr William Livingston, astronomer  & solar physicist; and 15. Dr Matthew Penn – astronomer &  solar physicist

Astronomers Dr. William Livingston and Dr. Matthew Penn and a large number of solar physicists would say that now the likelihood of the Earth being seized by Maunder Minimum is now greater than the Earth being seized by a period of global warming.”

Read here: http://algorelied.com/?p=2706.

16. Joe d’Aleo – Executive Director of Certified Consultant Meteorologists. Read here:  Intellicast.com

Longer term the sun is behaving like it did in the last 1700s and early 1800s, leading many to believe we are likely to experience conditions more like the early 1800s (called the Dalton Minimum) in the next few decades. That was a time of cold and snow. It was the time of Charles Dickens and his novels with snow and cold in London.”

Also see various other articles about Global Cooling under ICE AGE at Ice Cap

17. Harry van Loon, Emeritus at NCAR and CORA, 18. Roland Madden, Senior scientist at NOAA, Deputy Head of Climate analysis, 19. Dave Melita, Head Meteorologist at Melita Weather Associates, and 20. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University
These scientists came to the same conclusions— the global warming trend is done, and a cooling trend is about to kick in.

Read here!

21. Dr. David Archibald, Australia, environmental scientist:

In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.”

See Warwick Hughes and David Archibald

22. Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, Head of Space Research, Lab of Pulkov Observatory. See iceagenow.com:

In his presentation called The Sun Dictates the Climate, he indicated that there would be an ice age kind of temperatures in the middle of the 21st century. He showed a graph called The forecast of the natural climate change for the nearest 100 years and it showed the globa temperatures dropping by more than 1°C by 2055. According to him, a new ice age could start by 2014.”

And read here.

23. Dr Fred Goldberg, Swedish climate expert. People Daily:

We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert.”

and read: We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert

24. Dr. George Kukla, a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the field of astronomical forcing, Read Ice Age Now:

In the 1970s, leading scientists claimed that the world was threatened by an era of global cooling.

Based on what we’ve learned this decade, says George Kukla, those scientists – and he was among them — had it right. The world is about to enter another Ice Age.”

25. Peter Clark, Professor of Geosciences at OSU: Read iceagenow.com: 

Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age.”

26. James Overland, NOAA. Read physorg.com:

‘Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,’ said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

27. Dr. Theodore Landscheidt. Predicted in 2003 that the current cooling would continue until 2030 [Read here]:

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

28. Matt Vooro, P. Eng. The icecap.us:

We seem to be in the same climate cycle that we were back in 1964-1976.The last two winters [2008, 2009] have been very similar to those we had back then with all the extra snow and cold temperatures. Once the extra warming effect of the current 2009/2010 El Nino is finished, watch for colder temperatures to return due to the impact of the negative PDO, AMO, AO, NAO, ENSO/La Nina, major volcanic ash and changing solar cycles.”

Good source of articles and data on global cooling, see: Isthereglobalcooling.com

29. Thomas Globig, Meteorologist, Meteo Media weather service. Read here at WUWT:

‘The expected cold for the next month will bring this down significantly by year end. ‘The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,’ said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info. And it might even get worse: ‘It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,’ the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.”

30. Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/piers-corbyn-goes-global-cooling/

Predicting in November that winter in Europe would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like Hell frozen over at times,” Corbyn suggested we should sooner prepare for another Ice Age than worry about global warming. Corbyn believed global warming “is complete nonsense, it’s fiction, it comes from a cult ideology. There’s no science in there, no facts to back [it] up.”

31. Dr. Karsten Brandt, Director of donnerwetter.de weather service.

It is even very probable that we will not only experience a very cold winter, but also in the coming 10 years every second winter will be too cold. Only 2 of 10 will be mild.

Read here.

32. Joe Bastardi – Accuweather meteorologist and hundreds of other meteorologists (i.e. expert forecasters who outperform climatologists hands-down in seasonal forecasting).

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Other global cooling articles:
John Holdren Ice Age Likely
BBC News
Global Warming Debunked
Star Tribune
nationalpost.com
canadafreepress.com
news.yahoo.com

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German Climate Professor Slams Climate Religion

Hat tip: Readers Edition.

Michael Krüger at skeptic site Readers Edition brings our attention to an interview (in German) with skeptic scientist Professor Werner Kirstein of the Institute for Geography at the University of Leipzig on MDR German Public Radio. (Expect MDR to receive hellfire and brimstone for daring to air such blasphemy).

In the interview Professor Kirstein is asked about the cold winters being a sign of warming. He said that it just doesn’t fit, and that years ago the same scientists predicted the opposite, and reminds us what climate experts said 3 or 4 years ago:

In Germany we will rapidly see no more snow in the winter.”

So much for that prediction.

Professor Kirstein also cautioned against placing too much emphasis on 2010 being among the hottest years on record, believing the claim is “a joke” and saying that determining a global average is a tricky business and in the end is only a theoretical value. The radio moderator then attempts to make Kirstein look like a denier in asking:

And so what you are saying is that there is no climate change?”

To which Kirstein answered that indeed there is – from natural causes, citing the extreme temperature variations of the past repeating ice ages. Kirstein disputes the notion that man-made CO2 is driving the climate today, saying CO2 has at best extremely little to do with temperature, and it will not do any good to reduce it. He views political attempts to reduce CO2 as an effort to steer the economy into a certain direction and as a way to earn money.

Near the end of the clip, Kirstein says flat out that it all comes down to a belief – a religion.

Transcript (in German) of the interview, Read here.

Professor Kirstein was also once featured at NTZ not long ago, Read here.

German Meteorologist: Expect More Cold Winters Ahead

Meteorologist Karsten Brandt of donnerwetter.de projects more cold winters ahead. (Photo: Donnerwetter.de)

So forget the Met Office and PIK, who have proven themselves to be quite the laughing stocks. All that good money flowing into these institutions, and such rubbish coming out.

Meteorologist Karsten Brandt of German weather service company donnerwetter.de provides us with an outlook for 2011 and the next 10 years ahead. Read here (in German).

More cold winters over the next 10 years

Lately we’ve been hearing a lot about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going negative, which appears to be linked to quiet solar activity. (On the other hand we’ve been hearing from AGW true believers that the negative AO is caused by sea ice changes, which are caused by Arctic warming, which is caused by man-made trace CO2 emissions).

Clearly though, the NAO plays an important role in Europe’s weather. Knowing what the NAO will do for the next 10 years allows you to make a predictions for Europe’s climate ahead. Karsten Brandt writes:

It is even very probable that we will not only experience a very cold winter, but also in the coming 10 years every second winter will be too cold. Only 2 of 10 will be mild.

Dr Brandt is not some lone guy out there making this kind of blasphemous prediction. A large number of meteorologists and climatologists are projecting the same, e.g. like Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi and warmist climatologist Mojib Latif. Even the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is joining the chorus, but claiming the cold is due to warming.

2011 in Germany about 1°C cooler

Over the short-term Dr Brandt says that making a reasonable forecast for the next 2 months is not that hard, and that one can generate a pretty good idea of how the rest of the year will develop. Last year much of western Europe had a cooler year. What ‘s the outlook for Germany for 2011? Brandt writes:

Compared to the last 20 years, 2011 will turn out with a high probability to be too cold. Instead of 11°C in the west, or 10°C in the north and east, we expect only 8-10 °C, i.e. 1°C colder than the last years. Especially the cold start in the year and the suspected once again colder end of the year will pull the year’s temperature down.

Hopefully municipalities will procure the necessary wintertime snow-clearing equipment and stockpile sufficient amounts of sand and road salt so that next winter citizens will not have to endure the horrific traffic conditions that they are now experiencing over much of Europe. And you home centers ought to think about ordering snow shovels next fall.

But don’t despair, Brandt says the chances for a warm spring and a warm summer month aren’t bad.

Finally, here’s what the National Weather Service is showing:

The Ice Age Starts in Potsdam – Record December Snow Cover

Oh the irony!

Potsdam is the home of the alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, headed by Professor Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf, who has been very busy lately trying to convince the rest of the world that the cold is due to the warming, at least that’s what his models are saying (now).

Snowiest December ever

Potsdam is now well on its way to recording its snowiest December since records began in 1893. The Meteorological Station Potsdam Telegrafenberg has been recording a wide variety of weather parameters since 1893, and looking at the records, no December compares to the one they are having now.

Daily snow cover in Potsdam: Source: http://saekular.pik-potsdam.de/2007_en/index.html

As Rahmstorf and Schellnhuber watch crews remove snow every day at the PIK, they really must be cursing all the white stuff that was never supposed to happen.

Some December data at the PIK – records smashed

On December 21 the station had a snow cover of 33 cm, a December record, smashing the old record of 23 cm set 97 years ago in 1913.

This December will have had snow cover 30 of 31 days (No thaw is in sight) – the 2nd most, just behind 1969 (see Figure below), which saw 31 days of snow on the ground. Currently there is 23 cm of snow cover, which was the old record.

Number of days with snow cover in December. Source; http://saekular.pik-potsdam.de/2007_en/index.html

The average so far for this December has been about 16 cm of snow cover. With the current forecast, that too will not change. If anything it may increase. That will make it an all-time record.

It’s been one of the coldest Decembers in Potsdam since records started. Temperatures for this December in Potsdam have averaged near -4°C so far.

The snow has not only been frequent in Potsdam, but all over Germany. Many cities are poised to set new records for most days with snow cover on the ground. Read here.

Wanted! Copyright Attorney To Split 50/50

Anyone know a good copyright attorney interested in splitting awards 50/50?

I wonder how many bloggers know what the symbol to the left means? Seems like there are some that don’t.

No, it doesn’t mean Christmas!

I really wish I didn’t have to write this. But I feel compelled to do so.

I’ve been blogging 9 months and I try to make sure I don’t violate copyright laws. Copyright laws do enter gray territory at times, and sometimes it isn’t really clear what is allowed and what is not. I hope that I’ve always stayed within the law. I use photos from Wikipedia, as it’s stated there what you can and cannot do. I hear a lot of people bring up “fair use”. Laws vary from country to country. It gets complicated and fuzzy.

When blogging, I often quote papers, online articles and provide excerpts, always making sure to cite and link to the sources. I think people who wrote the original material deserve credit and recognition for their work. I like linking to other sites, hoping that the little extra traffic I generate will make them happy. What goes around, comes around.

What do other bloggers think? I’d be interested to know. Maybe I’m naive about all this.

I must say I’m surprised by the number of sites that simply copy and paste ENTIRE stories and paste them at their site, without even asking. This has been done to me more than once, and with increasing frequency lately. With one of my recent posts I found 6 other sites that did this with my story – not one asked for permission to do so. Sure they provided a link, but who needs to click on it when it’s all there?

I don’t want to sound like I’m crying about it, but geez, c’mon, it sure would be nice if people asked. Like hello! I’m not there to carry your water.

Don’t get me wrong, I love it when other blogs pick up on the stuff I write. It really feels rewarding. All I ask is that bloggers post the first 30% of the content or so, or excerpts, followed by a direct link to the original story. Is that too much to ask? Am I being naive?

Tom Nelson does an outstanding job in respecting other people’s work. Tom always posts a few main excerpts, some content, then followed by a link to the original story. This way everyone is happy.

I noticed some sites that copy and paste entire stories without permission also have advertisements at their sites, meaning they are gaining financially by copying and pasting. In this case the originators of the content have the right to compensation.

I’m not going to go after past infractions, but in the future I’m not going to let these things slide as much anymore. Bloggers who benefit financially from advertising at their sites, or receive donations, and decide to copy and paste entire stories from NTZ will have to expect to hand over a cut of their profits, willingly or unwillingly.

All in all, I’m just hoping everyone will agree to play fair in the future.  

Merry Christmas everyone.

Questions From Warmist Wordsmith

I found this comment from a reader who calls him(her)self “wordsmith”, posted under my “Contact” sidebar. Because it’s Christmas Eve and things are a little hectic, I thought maybe some readers could give me a hand and help out this poor warmist. Here’s his(her) comment:

It’s amazing to me when I hear Climate Change skeptics talk about the misinformation from those who believe it is happening, that it’s primarily caused by man, and that the consequences will be significant. What would be the motivation for so many scientists, the vast majority of scientists, far more educated and intelligent than either of us, to spread misinformation? Do you believe they’re just stupid? More so than you? Is there some economic benefit for them? Do you discount what all scientists say? Also, give me a break–an engineering degree does not in any way qualify you to be a climate expert. I work with a lot of engineers and you don’t have to be that bright to get an engineering degree, especially from some no-name university. MIT, maybe, but not the ones you attended.

He seems annoyed that I’m expressing myself freely at this blog.

PIK And GISS Bring Science To The Superstitions of The Little Ice Age. A Needed Lesson On Fear And Ignorance

Reader Bernd Felsche reminds us of this excellent post by Christoper Hitchens here, which is indeed worth bringing up again today, particularly in light of the dark closed minds that have lately attempted to claim that no matter what the weather does today, man is the culprit.

An identical mindset infected so called leading intellectuals back during the Little Ice Age. As Dr. Baliunas explains, during the Medieval Warm Period, Europe enjoyed a warm climate, which allowed society to flourish.

But around the 15th century, the Little Ice Age began and the weather deteriorated. Agriculture suffered and people starved. The low-point was from 1550 to 1700. The intellectuals back then were sure it was man’s fault. A mass wave a institutionally legalized executions ensued.

Dr. Baliunas (emphasis added):

How unusual was this very intense period of the Little Ice Age? On the afternoon of August 3rd, 1562, a thunderstorm struck Central Europe across a front several hundred km long. After raging for several hours, the storm unleashed a terrific hail that continued until midnight. It destroyed crops. It destroyed vineyards, birds and unprotected horses and cows. Dirists noticed something we hear today. They said for 100 years such a storm had never been seen. The storm was deemed so unusual in this period of superstition, that it had to be unnatural; it had to be supernatural.

Thus superstition and witchcraft bred a precautionary response: Eradicate those responsible for the storm and the period of new storminess. Now it was well known that people could cook weather with the help of Satan. So thus did extreme conditions of the severest part of the Little Ice Age contribute to Europe’s most horrific period of mass executions a witch trials. This was completely legal and it was undertaken, administered by highly educated upper social strata. These were institutionally legalized executions for sorcery.”

Sounds very familiar today, doesn’t it? How does it compare to PIK, RC and GISS? Watch this speech by Dr Baliunas. Humanity is always only a step away from with-burning and Holocausts. It has happened time and again. The only thing that saves us, is the strong rule of democracy. How often have we heard leading “intellectuals” question democracy lately? We see many similarities today in the thinking of the upper social strata. “Man is responsible” – especially the deniers.

Potsdam Climate Institute Now Says To Expect “Warmer Colder” Winters!

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the German media are now in full panic mode. They can no longer get their stories straight.Desperate to stem the flood of doubt now sweeping Germany, as the country is gripped by its harshest December in 100 years, including record snowfalls in Potsdam, the hyper-alarmist PIK and the German media are now throwing all they’ve got to explain away the embarrassing cold.

For years they preached endlessly that Germany would be experiencing balmy, southern European-type winters. Snow indeed had been relegated to the history books. The tables have since turned.

Everybody had predicted a brutal winter

Back in late summer and fall, meteorologists like Piers Corbyn, Joe Bastardi, and other German private forecasters, were all predicting cold winters ahead. Even Russian and Polish scientists had forecast the possibility of the harshest winter in a 1000 years. But the PIK and Met Office climatologists scoffed. The Met Office in England even went so far as to forecast a mild and wet winter, again.

So far, Scandinavia, the United Kingdom and Germany have experienced one of the worst Decembers on record, if not the worst.

PIK suddenly sees the writing on the wall

By early November even the climate scientists at the dogmatic PIK eventually recognized the writing on the wall, and so scrambled to fabricate a cartoonish “new study”, authored by PIK scientist Vladimir Petuchov, that suddenly predicted cold winters would be likely for Europe, and claimed it was consistent with global warming. Their models had just uncovered it.

The media blitz – conflicting stories

The heavy snows and extreme cold hit as expected. The public was caught off guard and demanded an explanation. And so the propaganda machinery switched into high gear. FOCUS online, two days ago on Tuesday, had the title Colder Winters Because of Global Warming. Der Spiegel and other major news outlets, along with radio and TV, all joined in spreading the PIK propaganda – all reporting this sudden new discovery by PIK.

Here Focus wrote how a PIK computer model shows how the disappearance of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas influences the climate in northern continental regions. Less sea ice in these seas leads to release of energy into the atmosphere.

As a result, large-scale changes in air currents could occur so that polar winds make their way to Europe and North Asia, whereby the probability of cold winters triples.”

Emphasis added. They (PIK) aren’t sure amd are simply floating this out. The study’s lead author Vladimir Petuchov then adds a line, which I think will become infamous down the road:

Hard winters do not refute global warming, instead they more so confirm it.”

So, according to their latest climate models, global warming will lead to colder European winters. The probability of the such is 3 times higher. Now enters Stefan Rahmstorf.

No no…stop! Warming leads to warmer colder winters!

Meanwhile Stefan Rahmstorf is watching the back door. No matter what happens, they’ll all be able to say “We were right”. Also on Tuesday, the online Die Welt quotes Rahmstorf, also from the PIK, in an article titled: Hard Winter Not a Sign of Climate Change. (Petuchov to the contrary said that it was).

We will certainly have to anticipate milder winters rather than cold ones.”

Die Welt then adds:

PIK scientist Prof. Stephan Rahmstorf also points out that the “cold“ winters have gotten warmer.”

Stop right there. These guys can’t even get their stories straight! One PIK scientist says we’ll get warmer winters, while the other one says we’ll get colder ones. Well, which is it? Rahmstorf seems to be saying we’ll get colder winters that will be warmer. Oh, now I get it…global warming will now lead to warmer colder winters!

It was all recently discovered by their climate models

Dr. Peter Werner, also of the PIK, said on NDR Radio (also on Tuesday) that their climate models had just recently uncovered the Barents and Kara Sea phenomena, claiming it’s all consistent with man-made climate change.

Tuesday was a busy press release day for the alarmists in Potsdam. It also appears to have been a very chaotic one too.

Conclusion

So what can we conclude from all this? No matter what the climate does, they will be able to say their models predicted it. Falsification is impossible. Jared Olar of Echo-Pilot.com here says it best:

The natural sciences have terms for that kind of hypothesis. ‘Unfalsifiable’ is one of them. ‘Unscientific’ is another. An idea may be true, but if it is incapable of being ‘falsified’ or proven wrong, then whatever else that idea is, it certainly isn’t science.”

Hat tip for links: Dirk Maxeiner

Trail Of Toxin – The Long And Shocking Recycling Route Of ESLs

In my last post, I wrote about some German politicians who have woken up to the fact that energy saving lights are highly toxic, and dangerous to use in households.They now want to have them banned, and bring back the old incandescent bulb Edison brought us 130 years ago. I also posted a link to a shocking German documentary that exposes the reckless recycling of the mercury-laden bulbs.

Parts 2 and 3 of the documentary show the horrific handling of the used ESLs, which I describe here in English.

Part 1/3: The North Sea island of Nordeney changes over to energy saving lights in a project with Philips

The 2009 report on NDR German television investigated the energy saving lamps (ESL) in detail and found it is probably far worse for the environment than any one could have imagined. In Part 1, the North Sea island of Nordeney wants to eliminate all incandescent light bulbs, and thus become a model for the world. So Norderney teams up with ESL manufacturer Philips to replace all normal lights with ESLs.

Citizens expressed their concerns about the toxic mercury in the lamps. But the Philips spokespersons downplay the risk and tell lies about the risk. The TV documentary asks the question: “Are ESLs really that good for the environment?” The answer to this question becomes shocking when all factors are examined.

Part 2: The ESLs are transported and reloaded over hundreds of kilometers, leaving a trail of toxic mercury and broken lamps behind.

As Part 2 shows, many of the residents of Nordeney are worried about the toxic mercury, and want to know how the ESLs are to be safely transported off the island once used. Is it possible to put them in containers without breaking and releasing mercury? In a town meeting with citizens, a Philips sales manager simply answers that it is not the responsibility of the manufacturer, but rather that of the recycling companies. Here the Philips spokesmen underplays the hazards of their ESL’s.

The citizens want to know if recycling companies properly handle the ESLs? To answer the question, the NDR reporter follows the entire recycling route of the ESL. What he finds is horrific.

Taking the old lamps back to the shop

Part 2 of the documentary shows that shops gladly take back the ESLs once used, and carefully collect them for recycling. When you buy a new lamp, then just bring back the old one. The shops collect the old ESLs and a disposal company later picks them up and takes them to a disposal centre. But as you will see, the route to recycling is one that is riddled with released mercury and broken lamps. Work conditions for workers are horrendous.

Toxic work conditions
Used ESLs first are first collected at the Müllumschlagstation (Waste Gathering Station) on Norderney. As the NDR reporter shows, the Müllumschlaganlage Norderney is poorly equipped to handle the old ESLs. The company doesn’t have the proper containers for storing and transporting them. As a result many of the ESLs break and release their toxic mercury into the environment. Here a worker handling the broken ESLs is asked if he was afraid of the mercury. He replied,

“No, we wear gloves – and we have been immunised.”

Immunized against mercury? The disposal company spokeswoman then explains that the correct containers for holding the old ESLs are actually wire mesh boxes, but they don’t have any in Norderney, and then adds that ESL breakage is rare anyway and so it isn’t a real problem. But as the reporter shows, there are broken ESLs everywhere.

Once the lamps are sorted, trucks pick them up and transport them off from the island. Where do they go next?

Unloading and reloading – broken lamps everywhere

The reporter follows the truck on its trip from Norderney to the MKW disposal centre on the German mainland located in Grossefehn, just east of Emden. But here the facility is also not a recycling centre. It is just another logistics collection centre where the “improper” containers are unloaded and the lamps reloaded again (more lamps break). No recycling is done here. Here, the broken ESLs are sorted out by workers who only wear gloves and no masks. One worker is picking broken pieces and putting them in a paper box and brings them to a container – an open wire mesh container. When a wire mesh container is full, it is picked up by a truck and the journey continues.

More unloading and reloading – more broken lamps

From Grossefehn the truck transports the ESLs to a 3rd location where there are many more wire mesh containers filled with old broken ESLs exposed to the air. At this third location, ESLs are also only collected, and not recycled, and then sent to yet a 4th location. But where? The reporter then follows the ESLs, now held in the “correct” wire mesh containers, all the way to Bad Oeynhausen, several hundred km away. But at this location, the reporter is not allowed to film.

The reporter does, however, find out that the next location for the old lamps is the DELA recycling company near the city of Essen. By now the old lamps have travelled more than 600 kilometres since leaving Norderney. Many do not even survive the trip. And the energy the lights had saved by consuming less electricity is certainly used up by the long and complicated logistics chain.

At DELA, the manager spoke openly about the recycling process, proud to be a part of protecting the environment. On the subject of breaking ESLs, he assured that it happened very rarely. Says manager DELA Ralf Kölzer:

Broken glass is immediately sorted out and there is practically no breakage in the wire mesh containers. The amount of breakage is negligible.”

But the reporter then shows a truck being unloaded. As the truck is opened, many small shards of mercury contaminated glass fall to the ground. No problem though. Two workers simply sweep up the broken contaminated glass and throw it away.

Part 3: Horrific work conditions at the recycling plant

Finally at DELA, the 5th location, recycling begins – first the ESLs are unloaded from the mesh containers and thrown into a crusher by hand. The workers here are not even wearing any type of masks. “No problem”, says manager Kölzer, “The mercury vapours are simply removed by the overhead vacuum hood”. The crushed material is then separated according to size and type. The crushed and sorted material is then packed into so called Big Bags (you can see a cloud of dust blowing out from the bag when a worker moves it).

Recycling the ESLs consume lots of energy

The ESLs from Norderney are also crushed in Bad Oeynhausen and then delivered to DELA in big bags. There the crushed material is separated and goes through a complex process that requires a lot of energy. How much energy? No one can answer that question. EU bureaucrats say that the energy savings are worth it, even with the mercury problem. Environmental groups like Greenpeace are also active supporters of the ESLs. But Greenpeace in Hamburg refused an interview with NDR.

I also tried to get a comment from Greenpeace, but got nothing.

Nowhere is it possible to find a complete life cycle study on CO2 and energy that compares ESLs and standard lights. More important, what about the mercury in the environment? What about the health of the workers?

The NDR reporter also researched to see if the ESL lights really do last longer than the normal lights and use less energy. The results show that they do not.

Lights Out For Kid-Killing, Save-The-Planet Lights in Europe?

The German online Die Welt has an article today titled: Politicians Want To Ban Energy Saving Lights.

Hat tip: Reader Roger L.

I can’t understand why they’d want to do that. After all, lamp producers have only spent hundreds of millions in R&D, retooling and marketing these wonderful, planet-saving lights.

And who cares if these new lamps cast a light nobody likes, are difficult to clean up if they break, terribly expensive, only practical if they are on all day, and contain toxic substances? I’m stumped as to why anyone would want to buy anything else.

Damn citizens are just too stupid to know what’s good for them, I guess.

Die Welt writes:

Politicians in Brussels warn: No ESLs in children’s bedrooms. Because of too much mercury, the EU pols want to remove these lamps from the market.

What is it today? World Sanity Day? Since when do good ideas come from Brussels?

EU politician Herbert Reul of Angela Merkel’s conservative-in-name-only CDU party says:

I will do everything in my power to roll back the ban of conventional light bulbs in the EU.”

What for? We already have a thriving black market for these old practical heat-generating lamps. People are still buying them via other channels. I recently bought 40 pieces of the 100-watt bulbs from a home-center three weeks ago. I don’t know if this home center was ignoring the law, but there they were – on sale. Still, they are hard to find, and it would be nice if you could just buy them anywhere.

Bedrooms turn into slow-death gas chambers
Mercury concentrations 20 times the allowable limit

Though it took awhile, politicians are waking up to the fact that ESLs are dangerous. DIE WELT writes:

The reason for Reul’s statements are new findings from the German Federal Department of Environment (UBA). According to studies conducted by the authorities, energy saving lights…pose a serious health risk. If an energy saving light breaks, then, according to experts, a mercury level  of 0.35 micrograms per cubic meter (20 times the allowable limit) can be released in a room. For this reason, particularly children and pregnant women should stay away from energy saving lights, recommend federal authorities.”

Simply said: If such a light breaks, then the room turns into a slow-death gas chamber. Actually, it’s quite the diabolical scheme for saving the planet. The state discreetly kills kids who would otherwise emit thousands of tons of climate-killing CO2 over their lifetime, and save energy at the same time. It’s like killing two kids, er, birds with one stone.

Not only does Herr Reul want to roll back the ban of conventional light bulbs, but he is also pushing for a ban of the ESLs. Herr Reul:

The EU commission also has to check whether it is allowed to market the alternative ESLs based on their proven health hazard.”

DIE WELT adds:

The CDU politician accuses the EU Commission of “being driven by climate protection madness – driven by political symbolism that neither benefits the climate nor people.”

It’s a fantastic first step by a politician in Germany. Now Herr Reul only needs to summon the courage to speak up against the climate religion, and the faith and junk science that underpin it.

Reul is not alone in voicing opposition to ESLs. The Vice President of the European Parliament, Silvana Koch-Mehrin (FDP) also calls for an end to the incandescent light ban, and forbidding the highly toxic ESLs. DIE WELT:

Koch-Mehrin added, as a mother, I can only urge: “Don’t use any energy saving lights in children’s bedrooms!“

Now all that is left to do is for the politicians to give back the consumer the choice it once had: Do I buy a safe product, or a hazardous one?

Finally, for German speakers, here’s an interesting documentary that shows the trail of dangerous toxic mercury and all broken ESLs that the recycling process leaves behind in Germany (Note the outright lies that the Philips marketers spread).

Hans von Storch On Media, Politics; Climate Science And Activists

Hans von Storch offers more interesting insights on skeptics, alarmists, the role of the media, politics, scientists etc. at his Klimazwiebel site, read here and here (in German).He answered quite a number questions as part of an “Expert Interview – Climate Change and Media”.  I picked out only some of the questions and his answers. There is quite a bit there.

Indeed Prof von Storch has plenty of criticisim for both sides (not surprisingly). In summary, Prof. von Storch advises the media, politics and scientists to stick more to their roles, and to stay away from one extreme or the other.

Q: How do you perceive public communication on anthropogenic climate change in Germany?
HvS:  The communication has improved considerably over the last year since ClimateGate, the IPCC blunders and the failure of COP-15.  The talk has become less dramatic, as well-known alarmists can longer be so sure with the attention of the public.

Q: In your view how should successful public communication of anthropogenic climate change be set-up?
HsV: Less positive is the tendency to moralise and to propagandise, like Germany should be a model for the rest of the world while countries like China and USA are to be demonized. The communication on one side should present the scientifically supported perspectives as factual supplementary conditions for decision-making, while on the other hand highlighting as political options the possibilities for making decisions by politics and society (i.e. decided by values).

Q: What has to improve with the public communication of anthropogenic climate change and what has to happen so that it gets better?
HvS: More openness to questions and skepticism; more skepticism with respect to the alarmists (i.e. the ones who have the more interesting “stories” for the media and politics); more resistance to attempts at using single events as proof that supports far-reaching statements (like on the irrelevance of the man-made greenhouse effect) on climate dynamics; caution in the argumentative use of the latest scientific findings (much in Nature and Science later turns out to be in need of revision); evaluating scientific results from the methodical points of view, and less from the point of view of political application.

Q: How do you assess the current situation in climate research?
HsV: The situation in climate research as much improved over the last year– to the extent that the discussion is more open. The influence of political circles and cartels has decreased some.

Q: What’s going well, and where are there problems?
HsV: Climate science finds itself in a post-normal phase where the mixture of politics and science is mutually beneficial to both. That doesn’t mean that the scientific process itself is damaged, but there is a need for a discussion in public on what role science should play.

Q: What must be improved and what must happen in order for things to get better?
HsV: The practice observed up to now of  “stealth advocate scientists“, i.e. of scientists who, without saying it, put their science in service of a certain political matter, needs to be stopped.

Q: What trends in the media in Germany with respect to communication on global climate change do you see?
HvS: Since about one year, the reporting has gotten more critical and open.

Q: What’s the deal with the interest of the media? Could you give us a current example?
HsV: The interest by the media was very considerable for a period of about 2 months after the events surrounding COP-15, ClimateGate and the IPCC revelations, but then faded. Alarmist reports have become somewhat less lately, also during COP-16 in Cancun. Obviously there seems to be an interest in better researched background reports.

Q: Over the last years, what impact have the increased number of skeptics had on the public communication of anthropogenic climate change?
I don’t believe the number of skeptics has gone up; more are just admitting it. I think there have always been latent reservations also among other professors from physics, geology and other areas. These reservations are now being more explicitly expressed. Many of these people are so-called “skeptics“. They are not oil-industry seduced hacks.

Q: In your opinion how does the future constellation between, climate science, climate politics and the media appear?
HsV: Hopefully in such a way that all three of these players start accepting more and more their own roles and functions, particularly I hope the media find their way back to accompanying science and politics more critically also in the climate field.

Winter Of The Millenium? Warmists’ Worst Nightmare May Be Coming True.

I’m sure there were winters over the last millenium that won’t be matched, of course. No one seriously expects the Thames to freeze over, like it did during the little ice age of the 17th century. But if the computer forecasts pan out, it could very well be one of the worst winters for northwestern Europe of the millenium – maybe in that elite class of the top 50.

Say Happy New Year! (Graphic: http://www.wetter24.de/de/home/wetter/profikarten)

Sweden in Britain are already well on their way to recording a “December of the century”. Joe Bastardi, like Piers Corbyn, pretty much hit it right on the nail – almost. Joe actually forecast the cold to be more centered in southern Europe, and not Northern Europe. But he wasn’t that far off.

Outlook for January 6, 2011

How did the Met Office do with their forecast? Forget them, except for the IPCC and others who like to be fooled all the time, they’re not relevant anymore.

The harsh winter only is likely going to get worse

The above graphic shows what the temperatures are going to be like when we’re toasting in the New Year. To the left it shows temperatures 5 days later. No let up! That’s freaking cold! You can view these graphics here at: meteogroup profikarten.

(The DWD says, however, that the forecasts at the moment have a lot of uncertainty, which probably means they are not sure how the storms are going to track.)

Is Piers Corbyn expecting this to continue? For how long? I’ve been hearing until the end of March from various sources. Say it aint true!

If this stuff goes on into March, then the Thames River has a chance of freezing over. If not, then many ports waterways and canals on the mainland will still be in serious trouble.  Things can change of course. There are going to be days where things will thaw a bit, hopefully, later on. Then governments really ought to use these occasions to ensure that supplies get rammed through to the max.

And when you have cold with the pattern shown above, you tend to get lots of snow.

For years we were told that the above charts would be coloured green or even yellow. All the so-called climatologists discounted the NAO and PDO and solar cycles, etc.  They didn’t want to hear it though. They went on preparing for warmth. Now it may end up costing millions of people dearly. Warming is indeed a whole nicer.

UPDATE: http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Alltime Record Set, Highest Snow Depth Since 1893 – In Potsdam!

Michael Krüger of Readers Edition here brings us a nice little anecdote in a post called: New Snow Record in Potsdam -start of December records the highest snow level since 1893.Not only is this winter a huge source of embarrassment for the Met Office in the UK, but also for the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany.

The PIK is the work place of alarmists Prof Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber and Stefan Rahmstorf, who is a regular at Gavin Schmidt’s Real Climate.

The German DWD Weather Service station “Potsdam-Telegrafenberg” located at the PIK measured a snow depth of 18 cm on December 9th, 10th and 11th. Krüger writes (Dec. 16):

That is the highest snow depth ever recorded at this station in the first half of December (December 1-15) since measurements began in 1893. And that directly at the front door of the PIK, the center for climate research in Germany.”

According to Krüger, the Potsdam-Telegrafenberg is the only meteorological station worldwide that has a fully intact record for a time period of more than 100 years. Krüger:

 That data-set is proven to be homogeneous. the historical observation conditions have since been preserved. Included are: unchanged siting (no station movement, no changes in the measurement field), unchanged surroundings, unchanged measurement methods, rules and equipment; time-point of data recording as to mean local time, recording of magnitudes that were not recorded anywhere else, continuous analog registration of the most important meteorological magnitudes.

Imagine that – the most snow in 117 years.

Harsh Winter And Gross Negligence To Cost Germany €100 Billion. Time For The Dogmatist Leaders To Resign

Remember the prepsoterous Stern Report claiming warming is costing the planet dearly, and so we should avoid it?

Well, we know climate is always changing, which means only one of two things can happen – either it gets warmer, or it gets colder. We’ve been told time and again that we simply can’t tolerate any more dangerous warming. So what’s left? Cooling.

Many of us are getting a taste of it now. How do you like it?

The high costs of cooling

Airports are closed down, flights cancelled, thousands of travellers are stranded, motorways are jammed to a standstill, supply routes are blocked, railways are paralyzed, car accidents and injuries have skyrocketed, the economy has ground to a halt. Folks, this is going to cost a bundle. How much?

Dr. Karsten Brandt has roughly calculated the cost here at donnerwetter.de in his piece today titled:

Never has a winter been so expensive – 600 euros more costs per household

On average households can expect to incur €600 in extra costs compared to the average over the years. The biggest part of that will be heating and electricity costs of 300-400 euros. In addition there are other winter costs such as salt, winter damage to autos and other losses. The costs for households will reach €30 billion nationwide.

And if you include the waiting times resulting from the massive traffic jams on the motorways, that figure jumps to 80 to 100 billion euros.

This does not include the agricultural losses that are sure to be added. The construction industry is now completely idled as well. And it’s going to get worse.

The economic damage from the winter weather can only be roughly estimated. If the cold winter continues as forecast, we calculate an economic damage of about €100 billion from production shutdowns, losses with the supply chains, price increases in energy etc.

Send the bill to the Munich Re. A hundred billion euros means 2000 euros for each household in Germany. The figures are similar in Great Britain.

Government incompetence and willful neglect

Governments were woefully unprepared for this cooling, all because of close-mindedness and dogmatism.

Chancellor Angela Merkel and most politicians have been an abject failure over the last years. They stupidly based all their preparedness and winter planning for the future on the crystal balls and sorcerers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the the now disgraced Met Office in England. Policy based on fantasy. That’s gross negligence.

Also read how the biased Met Office mislead the public: gwpf.org.

Climategate did nothing to sway them to think that things might be a little amiss at theie climate research centres. Instead, they stuck their heads in the sand when the scandal was uncovered. Indeed they even whitewashed away all the gross deficienies that had been exposed, and continued thinking it’s going to get warmer.  They are completely blinded by radical dogmatism, relying on incompetent scientists and tarot cards. This is horrible judgement and willful neglect on the part of Europe’s leaders.

These leaders need to make a U-Turn or resign. Leaders who cannot get past their dogmatism become menaces to the societies they’ve been entrusted to serve. They are costing us money – and lives.