Conference Recap And My Big Disappointment

Share this...
Share on Facebook
Facebook
Tweet about this on Twitter
Twitter

A shot just before the conference started

Just got back, and here’s a recap of the conference, which I wrote on the train.

Yesterday’s first speaker was Vincent Courtillot, who spoke  about consensus. As soon as debate is abandoned, he says, then science stops. Overall he says the debate has to open up, and that it is surely poisoned by politics. I thought he gave an excellent speech.

Next, because Fred Singer couldn’t attend, we heard a 10 minute audio-message he had recorded earlier, where in it he said that there is no evidence of man made global warming, and that sea level rise for the next 90 years will rise around 18 cm, and not 1.5 m as the Propaganda Institute for Klima (PIK) claims. Singer also said he sees waning political will. He thinks the climate issue will be settled in five years. I think he’ll be right.

Prof Nir Shaviv

Nir Shaviv then explained solar activity and climate, showing that the link between solar activity, cosmic rays and cloud formation is pretty much in the bag. CERN will be soon releasing results on this, too. Oceanic warming is not due to CO2, but to solar radiation. In fact, sea level rise rate correlates with the solar cycles, which I found interesting. Yet, in all presentations, the scientists cautioned against confusing correlation with causation. In summary, Shaviv theorises that the sun modulates the oceans, which in turn modulate the atmosphere (climate). The lag between solar activity and impact on climate was said to be about 3 years. Thus we ought to start seeing the impacts of the current low solar activity that has set in since about 2008.

Looking out the window, I’d say it’s about right!

The next presentation by Henrik Borchert complimented Shaviv’s presentation, supporting the solar link, which I think is the obvious place to look if you are going to look for what really drives climate. During many of these presentations, the CO2-driver theory was shown to have no merit, and was discarded every time. No wonder they don’t want to debate it.

Bob Carter

Bob Carter gave one of the most interesting talks, where he put the current warming in geological context. Conclusion: Nothing unnatural with today’s changes is detetctable. A later mathematical presentation by Horst-Joachim Lüdecke confirmed the same.

One point I found interesting was that most of today’s animals have their orgins from about 5 million years ago, meaning they’ve survived the wide climate variations of the ice ages, which means all the scare talk about biodiversity not surviving one or two degrees of temperature change is pure bunk. The only ones with a problem with a degree or two are the whiny warmists. They rest of the planet will be fine with it.

Lots of focus on proxies

Günter Ederer

One of the most entertaining and interesting speeches came from veteran German journalist Günter Ederer, who has lots of contacts and thus has excellent insights as to what is going on. If you have the chance to hear him speak – don’t pass it up. He mentioned during the break that he will be coming out with a new book, and for sure it will be an interesting one. For Ederer: “The IPCC is not interested in science.” Indeed Ederer makes it clear where this is all taking us – some place really ugly.

Jan Veizer focused on sun evapo-transpiration and produced data and charts clearly showing that CO2 is not the driver. Also the claim that there is no correlation between solar irradiance and temperature over the last years was fabricated, and thus the solar theory cannot be discarded. They adjusted the solar irradiance data with no justification. Veizer presented a number of correlations showing the sun is the driver.

Why would that be difficult to believe?

I liked his analogy where he compared to CO2 to Lichtenstein. If warmists were economists, they would try to boost the entire European economy by stimulating the economy of tiny Lichtenstein. That’s pretty much how they want to control the climate.

Meteorologist Klaus-Eckhardt Puls, 3rd from left.

One presentation I enjoyed, and one that throws in lots more uncertainty, was by Ian Pilmer, a geologist. Fascinating was the fact that there are hundreds of thousands of volcanoes below the sea level and many under Antarctica, and not a bit of data has been collected on any of these. These emit huge amounts of CO2.

The best one! The most interesting presentation was made by meteorologist Klaus-Eckhart Puls. His lively, fast-paced presentation drove nails into the coffin of the AGW notion. First he showed that North Sea sea levels have been rising at the same rate for four hundred years now. NO SIGN OF ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE! He also showed that the Sahara is shrinking as plant life is encroaching more and more. 300,000 sq km of trees were added over the last 20 years (as recently reported in FOCUS). He also debunked all the hyped up media claims of more storms and stronger this or that. His presentation had a good dose of humour and will be really worth watching when EIKE posts it.

During the break

The conference then ended with presentations by Dieter Ameling, Lutz Peters and Michael Limburg. Regrettably I couldn’t stay for the closing speech because trains don’t wait.

From a political and economic standpoint, the consensus is that the German government’s environmental and green economy policies are going to take Germany to hell in a hand basket – and quickly. But, being a guest here, I’ll refrain from commenting.

One speaker did point out that in communist times, you couldn’t say anything because they were always listening. But today, you can say anything you want, because they’ve stopped listening!

Now the big disappointment

I went there with high expectations because I kept hearing from the real climate scientists, who claim absolute knowledge, that the sceptics are funded by Big Oil. So I was hoping to go to Berlin Denier Conference and get some of that Big Oil money too.

But much to my dismay, the oil executives weren’t even there, and so I wasn’t able to close a disinformation for funding agreement. What crap! So I spoke to the gents at Science Sceptical, a German blog, and they also have to go without. So my dream of getting millions for doing this blog have completely vanished. All this blogging has been for nothing – fooled again by the warmists. When will I ever learn not to trust them?

Anyway, if there are any oil executives out there reading this blog, please note that I’m now seriously considering changing sides – and going where the big money is :).

Finally, my apologies for any misspelled names.

Share this...
Share on Facebook
Facebook
Tweet about this on Twitter
Twitter

44 responses to “Conference Recap And My Big Disappointment”

  1. Ed Caryl

    If you change sides, I WILL come find you!

  2. Will Delson

    You could get into greenmail. Plenty of money there. Better hurry, though. The market may have peaked.

  3. DirkH

    When i first read the headline i thought, what might have happened? Didn’t expect that punchline… You really fooled me!

    I hope Nir Shaviv and Hendrik Svensmark will soon get the recognition they deserve, and Jasper Kirkby, of course.

  4. R. de Haan

    Very funny.
    I really think it’s our sun, our oceans and volcano’s that make our weather-climate.

    The current cold invasion is not a normal winter.

    The fact that we see record breaking cold and record breaking snow fall
    take place around the world (many records go back over more than 100 years) is a strong sign that we are entering a period that could be colder than the cold periods of the past century.

    Dalton or even Maunder Minimum conditions come to mind.

    Joe Bastardi is in the process of adapting his earlier winter forecast
    comparing weather data from 1912-1916 with the current situation.

    To watch his theory go to his video site and take a look at his latest two video’s and his blog.

    Bastardi now believes our winter will be a bigger event than earlier thought and more brutal.

    He even plays with the possibility of a frozen Thames.

    In Cancun those arguing about a global climate treaty dream up more extreme statements and claims every day.

    We should ignore them and leave the last word to Mother Nature now making more headlines than the warmists who now find themselves in an awkward position.

    When a naked emperor stands in waste high water and claims he has still dry feet, nobody will believe him, right.

    A similar situation occurs when this naked emperor stands in waste high snow claiming the biggest problem of our world is warming.

    Nobody will believe him.

    The Antropogenic Global Warming claim has become an impossible sell.

    Just like the Nissan Leaf, the first mass produced electric car.

    Nobody will buy it.

  5. Bob in Castlemaine

    Thanks for an interesting summary Pierre. Of particular interest is the Shaviv comment that CERN will soon be releasing some results of the CLOUD work.

  6. Juraj V.

    Excellent stuff. Will be the presentations available online?

    I am waging my personal fight with our Meteorological Office at the moment, because of their article published online in Climatological actualities with infantile name “Will Slovakia lose its snow?” Good timing is everything, they produced it exactly when Slovakia is completely covered by 25-50cm of snow. I sent a complaint letter (cc MetOffice director) pointing at NAO link and comparing less snowy winters in 1990-ties with similar period in 1920-ties. Let the fight begin!

    Today morning temperature in our warm southwest is mere -16°C.

  7. ArndB

    Style and comprehensiveness of this year had improved, although last year conference will remain outstanding due to the present and active moderation by Prof. Fred Singer and Lord Christopher Monckton, who this year was at least briefly on screen ‘Live from Cancun”, together with Dr. Roy Spencer via Net. A special pleasure at this year conference was the opportunity to meet you, Pierre Gosselin, to exchange some views, and to express my admiration for your commitment and competence by running NoTricksZone.

    I think we briefly came also to the question what lays ahead, expressed in your comment above with the sentence:
    ___”Singer also said he sees waning political will. He thinks the climate issue will be settled in five years. I think he’ll be right.”
    I do not agree, even fear it might get worst. The “Climate Change” issue is a trillion dollar machinery, with an extreme unfortunate structure ( public servants, public administration, and public governance), and as long as it is not possible to reconstruct this ‘body’ completely, it will do whatever possible to continue.
    This is, e.g. expressed by H.-J. Schellnhuber in a FAZ interview (29.Nov.2010) with regard to Climategate:
    “WE HAVE LEARED FROM THIS: Everyone who submits a mail should write them so that they could end up with his worst enemy.”
    This presumably means: it will getting worst.

    1. DirkH

      “This is, e.g. expressed by H.-J. Schellnhuber in a FAZ interview (29.Nov.2010) with regard to Climategate:
      “WE HAVE LEARED FROM THIS: Everyone who submits a mail should write them so that they could end up with his worst enemy.”
      This presumably means: it will getting worst.”

      No – it means that Schellnhuber has never in his life worked for industry. This is the first rule when you get a company mail account – as company mail servers may always be searched by a state attorney if the company becomes accused of some financial wrongdoing.

      Schellnhuber just shows his ignorance of corporate rules.

  8. John Shade

    Thank you very much for the report. It is very encouraging to see some results from the work of calmer minds, and, I suspect, stronger characters, than we have had so often to endure over the past 20 or 30 years on climate. I hope that books, pamphlets, and video(s) from this conference will appear in due course. The nervous, highly-strung, agitated outpourings of such as Houghton, Hansen, and Mann, aided and abetted by emotive excesses from many others in various ‘disciplines’, have had a huge effect thanks to skilful manipulation by the IPCC. But, aided and abetted by weather, by data, and by reason, the tide of political opinion is perhaps turning against them at last. This conference will surely help that along, and encourage more scientists to be more honest and straightforward about what they know, and what they don’t know, about climate.

  9. FooledOnce

    Many Thanks Pierre.

  10. pyromancer76

    Thanks for the informative summary. Sorry there is no oil money to support your travel and efforts. Moral support from here. I think “they” have lost, but I believe the fight will remain huge. There is too much entrenched bureaucracy and billions of dollars to hold onto. I like the thought of a climate Tea Party that includes the main issues that real scientists can agree on at present, those issues that remain hypotheses awaiting more evidence, and a list — naming the names — of those who have been most involved in the fraud. At sometime in the future, when sanity has returned (and it will), they can be denied jobs, pensions, and perhaps even fined for their decades of lies and theft of our tax dollars.

  11. Ike

    Thanks Pierre!! Well done…nice reading!

    I just visited the science-skeptical blog and found this summary in German (there was even someone from PIK attending the conference 🙂

    http://www.science-skeptical.de/blog/berlin-berlin-wir-waren-in-berlin/003414/

    Keep up the good work Pierre!

    1. DirkH

      Lordy mine. They had a visitor from PIK who was surprised by the political side of the debate. Makes you wonder whether warmists ever use their brain.

  12. grayman

    Thanks for the report, sounds like good info all the way around. hopefully some warmist might have attended with nobody knowing and learned a few things, but alas we will not know. Yes “They” are on a down hill slide but as been said to much money invovled to be let go that easily, One old saying though comes to mind and it can be used here ” too many cooks spoil the dish” of AGW!

  13. Michael Snow

    Yes, “Thank you” and very interesting. Looking forward to more from Nir Shaviv and others.

    One point we should all keep in mind. Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT, has continually made the point about the complexity of climate science and that it is a mistake to speak in terms of “the” driver of climate, whether it be blamed on CO2 or solar.
    Excellent ‘debate’ here:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJwayalLpYY

    Ok, found the key quote, Lindzen: “The notion that complex climate “catastrophes” are simply a matter of the response of a single number, GATA, to a single forcing, CO2 (or solar forcing for that matter), represents a gigantic step backward in the science of climate. Many disasters associated with warming are simply normal occurrences whose existence is falsely claimed to be evidence of warming. And all these examples involve phenomena that are dependent on the confluence of many factors.”

    Dr. John Christy also makes the point: “Our ignorance about the climate system is enormous, and policy makers need to know that. This is an extremely complex system, and thinking we can control it is hubris.”

  14. R. de Haan
  15. Nonoy Oplas

    Excellent recap, it’s like we were there too. Congrats Pierre, and kudos too to Berlin Manhattan Institute,

  16. R. de Haan

    Sorry that was Rahmstorf of course.

    In the mean time:

    Author claims: we’re in the grip of a mini ice age
    http://www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2010/12/05/author-claims-we-re-in-the-grip-of-a-mini-ice-age-79310-27768699/

    Link via icecap.us

  17. R. de Haan

    Joe Bastardi latest European forecast for December:

    CORE OF COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT RELOADING FURTHER BACK NORTHWEST THREATENS NEW SEVERE COLD FOR NORTHWEST DEC 14-20.
    Winters core will push further southeast this week and while its cold to start in the northwest, it does get milder for the late week, even above normal a few days over Ireland and much of the northern part of the United Kingdom

    However this is not the end. The pattern is very similar Dec 14-23 to Jan 1-10 last year. If you remember, major cold engulfed…read more at
    http://www.accuweather.com/world-bastardi-europe-blog.asp

    [-snip] Copyright issues. Joe did the work, and so he ought to get the visits. We want to be fair here.

  18. R. de Haan

    Pierre, with all due respect but Joe does not keep an archive of his articles.
    I can only post the link (which a normally do) but it could very well be that his article is gone within a single day.

    So please leave the entire text as it is just to have the record.

    I am sure Joe won’t object to this policy. He encourages it.

  19. R. de Haan

    Anthony is recycling the Charles Dickens story from last year:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/05/has-charles-dickens-shaped-our-perception-of-climate-change/

    One of the posters came up with this link full of fabulous pictures of the Russians covered in snow.

    I especially like the picture of a solitary house covered with a huge pile of snow on the roof and the picture of a Lenticularis cloud at low altitude.

    These clouds normally build in mountainous regions marking the top waves of the air that follows a wave pattern when the wind hits a mountain range.

    Some times these clouds build in very cold (dense air) in a perfectly flat landscape. The dense cold air in combination with a low altitude wind sheer creates a similar effect.

    Anyhow these are great pictures telling us that we’ve seen nothing yet.
    http://www.webpark.ru/comment/59875

  20. R. de Haan

    From Joe Bastari’s blog.
    CORE OF COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT RELOADING FURTHER BACK NORTHWEST THREATENS NEW SEVERE COLD FOR NORTHWEST DEC 14-20.
    Winters core will push further southeast this week and while its cold to start in the northwest, it does get milder for the late week, even above normal a few days over Ireland and much of the northern part of the United Kingdom

    However this is not the end. The pattern is very similar Dec 14-23 to Jan 1-10 last year. If you remember, major cold engulfed much of China, the eastern US and Europe to open the new Year and another round of major cold appears to be lurking in the longer term in the areas in Europe that have suffered the last 2 weeks. I think what we are seeing here is the evolution southeast of the core of cold so for the heart of winter, it is where it will be later this week into part of next week, but enough blocking continues to pull this cold back so another round of UK covering snow and cold may be in the works the 15th, perhaps all the way to around Christmas. The lack of the true flip ( the warming coming is an island of warmth in the sea of cold) means this is likely to be the coldest December for the northwest since, well, we have to go back a long long time.

    In the meantime, but the weekend the cold of the worst cold will be into the south of Europe ( relative to normal) with the core swinging from southern France into the Balkans by early next week as the northwest warms. Again I do not have the time to post on this the way I would like too, but felt this big ticket shift back and forth of extreme cold is something I should warn you about.

    Side note: On the free site I have issued the Monday morning global ice report a day early to clear up any issues about the US based NSIDC reports. I explained this in an earlier post, but believe as sure as the sun rises in the east that in spite of an appearance of them running a bit low, it is a question of interpretation and calculation. Above all, I want to make sure that right or wrong, I speak to the truth as I see it, and after their email to me, I see exactly what they are saying and will make sure they are referenced as yet another objective tool to use in this debate, which to me, is what this is truly all about. I would have re-done this quicker, but was out of town.

    For the record, I do believe alot of the people in this great climate debate are honest brokers, even some of my most harsh critics. In any case, if we let it play out, we will get our answer over the coming years, as long as we can continue to look at all the data in an objective manner.

    In the meantime, some of the things I have been saying to look for from a few years ago are showing up. Does it mean I am right? Not yet. But it does mean I have a chance to be right, and at the very least, argue for an open mind. I think the rationale person would say yes. The start of a post nino fall in the earths temp and some of the intrusions of cold into areas that 10 years ago had people saying cold would not show up like this any more, make my argument one that is more palatable than one that says, that by growing colder, its a sign its growing warmer.
    http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

  21. R. de Haan

    It’s bad news for all of us.

    Deep purple is taking over the planet NH and SH.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html

    H/T From Real Science

  22. R. de Haan

    Germany joining UK in darkness
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/12/05/germany-joining-uk-in-darkness/#comment-9501

    A very good article from E.M.Smith

  23. R. de Haan
  24. Alex the skeptix

    Forget CERN, they’re a bunch of idiots, thinking that solar radiation or lack of it, dictates the global temperature. Who ever thought that the kettle boils because there’s heat under it? Fools.
    I have even discovered the reason why global warming causes the planet to freeze; its the refrigeration cycle. Put in one unit of energy into the compressor, and you get out three units of negative energy in the evaporator. My problem is where are the four units of heat in the condensing unit, or, where is that bl**dy condensing unit? OK. Give me a million-dollar grant and I will find where that condensing unit is, the heat that cannot be found yet (In fact I will do anything for a million bucks).
    Kevin Trenberth is an expert in this lost heat, or to be exact, an expert in mentioning the fact that it must be there and that it’s a travesty that we cannot find it. Hint: It’s in Cancun at the moment. They’re feeling quite hot under their collar, following the Jap’s declaration, killing Kyoto.

  25. DCC

    “Just got back” from where? Am I expected to chase that information down?

  26. R. de Haan
  27. GregO

    Pierre,

    Great work! It is cheering news to hear that climate skepticism is alive and well in Europe.

  28. Steve Koch

    Can’t wait to see the CERN results.

    What is causing the colder winters in Europe? Is the gulf stream weakening?

    Can we all agree to divert a big chunk of the climate research money over to weather research? It will be orders of magnitude more useful, honest, and easier to verify.

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this. More information at our Data Privacy Policy

Close