Just got back, and here’s a recap of the conference, which I wrote on the train.
Yesterday’s first speaker was Vincent Courtillot, who spoke about consensus. As soon as debate is abandoned, he says, then science stops. Overall he says the debate has to open up, and that it is surely poisoned by politics. I thought he gave an excellent speech.
Next, because Fred Singer couldn’t attend, we heard a 10 minute audio-message he had recorded earlier, where in it he said that there is no evidence of man made global warming, and that sea level rise for the next 90 years will rise around 18 cm, and not 1.5 m as the Propaganda Institute for Klima (PIK) claims. Singer also said he sees waning political will. He thinks the climate issue will be settled in five years. I think he’ll be right.
Nir Shaviv then explained solar activity and climate, showing that the link between solar activity, cosmic rays and cloud formation is pretty much in the bag. CERN will be soon releasing results on this, too. Oceanic warming is not due to CO2, but to solar radiation. In fact, sea level rise rate correlates with the solar cycles, which I found interesting. Yet, in all presentations, the scientists cautioned against confusing correlation with causation. In summary, Shaviv theorises that the sun modulates the oceans, which in turn modulate the atmosphere (climate). The lag between solar activity and impact on climate was said to be about 3 years. Thus we ought to start seeing the impacts of the current low solar activity that has set in since about 2008.
Looking out the window, I’d say it’s about right!
The next presentation by Henrik Borchert complimented Shaviv’s presentation, supporting the solar link, which I think is the obvious place to look if you are going to look for what really drives climate. During many of these presentations, the CO2-driver theory was shown to have no merit, and was discarded every time. No wonder they don’t want to debate it.
Bob Carter gave one of the most interesting talks, where he put the current warming in geological context. Conclusion: Nothing unnatural with today’s changes is detetctable. A later mathematical presentation by Horst-Joachim Lüdecke confirmed the same.
One point I found interesting was that most of today’s animals have their orgins from about 5 million years ago, meaning they’ve survived the wide climate variations of the ice ages, which means all the scare talk about biodiversity not surviving one or two degrees of temperature change is pure bunk. The only ones with a problem with a degree or two are the whiny warmists. They rest of the planet will be fine with it.
One of the most entertaining and interesting speeches came from veteran German journalist Günter Ederer, who has lots of contacts and thus has excellent insights as to what is going on. If you have the chance to hear him speak – don’t pass it up. He mentioned during the break that he will be coming out with a new book, and for sure it will be an interesting one. For Ederer: “The IPCC is not interested in science.” Indeed Ederer makes it clear where this is all taking us – some place really ugly.
Jan Veizer focused on sun evapo-transpiration and produced data and charts clearly showing that CO2 is not the driver. Also the claim that there is no correlation between solar irradiance and temperature over the last years was fabricated, and thus the solar theory cannot be discarded. They adjusted the solar irradiance data with no justification. Veizer presented a number of correlations showing the sun is the driver.
Why would that be difficult to believe?
I liked his analogy where he compared to CO2 to Lichtenstein. If warmists were economists, they would try to boost the entire European economy by stimulating the economy of tiny Lichtenstein. That’s pretty much how they want to control the climate.
One presentation I enjoyed, and one that throws in lots more uncertainty, was by Ian Pilmer, a geologist. Fascinating was the fact that there are hundreds of thousands of volcanoes below the sea level and many under Antarctica, and not a bit of data has been collected on any of these. These emit huge amounts of CO2.
The best one! The most interesting presentation was made by meteorologist Klaus-Eckhart Puls. His lively, fast-paced presentation drove nails into the coffin of the AGW notion. First he showed that North Sea sea levels have been rising at the same rate for four hundred years now. NO SIGN OF ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE! He also showed that the Sahara is shrinking as plant life is encroaching more and more. 300,000 sq km of trees were added over the last 20 years (as recently reported in FOCUS). He also debunked all the hyped up media claims of more storms and stronger this or that. His presentation had a good dose of humour and will be really worth watching when EIKE posts it.
The conference then ended with presentations by Dieter Ameling, Lutz Peters and Michael Limburg. Regrettably I couldn’t stay for the closing speech because trains don’t wait.
From a political and economic standpoint, the consensus is that the German government’s environmental and green economy policies are going to take Germany to hell in a hand basket – and quickly. But, being a guest here, I’ll refrain from commenting.
One speaker did point out that in communist times, you couldn’t say anything because they were always listening. But today, you can say anything you want, because they’ve stopped listening!
Now the big disappointment
I went there with high expectations because I kept hearing from the real climate scientists, who claim absolute knowledge, that the sceptics are funded by Big Oil. So I was hoping to go to Berlin Denier Conference and get some of that Big Oil money too.
But much to my dismay, the oil executives weren’t even there, and so I wasn’t able to close a disinformation for funding agreement. What crap! So I spoke to the gents at Science Sceptical, a German blog, and they also have to go without. So my dream of getting millions for doing this blog have completely vanished. All this blogging has been for nothing – fooled again by the warmists. When will I ever learn not to trust them?
Anyway, if there are any oil executives out there reading this blog, please note that I’m now seriously considering changing sides – and going where the big money is :).
Finally, my apologies for any misspelled names.