I’m just the messenger, so don’t beat the crap out of me! Blame global warming for all the cold that’s in the pipeline.
Here are the temperature forecasts for the next 16 days for most continents and regions. Many are forecast to be below normal. As you click on each link below, you’re going to be seeing blue (except for Canada). But in the period 10-18 January, Canada too is going to cool down from a dark red to a pink.
East Asia will shiver in January. See link below.
Now I am going out on a limb by saying these temperature conditions will extend through much of the month of January and February, with zones shifting here and there, thanks to La Nina.
All in all I heard Joe Bastardi forecast here December global temps to drop to about +0.15 to 0.20 above the normal. I say expect a similar drop for January, meaning we’ll be in negative territory. Same goes for February. There just seems to be lots of cold out there.
Here are the color-coded temperature forecasts for much of the land mass on the globe.
1. United States is projected to be well below normal from 2-9 January. And 10-18 January will be even colder. COLD!
2. Canada is projected to be well above normal from 2-9 January, But many regions will get closer to normal from 10-18 January. Sea ice will expand much. WARM!
3. Europe on the whole will be around average from 2-9 January. But the next cold wave is forecast to hit in another week to 10 days. That means Europe too will be well below normal from 10-18 January. COLD!
4. East Asia: Look at all the blue from from 2-9 January – well below normal. And it doesn’t get better from 10-18 January. COLD!
5. South Asia is projected to be well below normal from 2-9 January, and not much change from 10-18 January. COLD!
6. Central Asia is projected to be well below normal from 2-9 January in western China and north above it. The Middle east and Turkey will be normal to warm, and not much change from 10-18 January. COOL!
7. Middle East will be in general cool from 2-9 January with some warming from 10-18 January. NORMAL!
8. Africa will be generally cool from 2-9 January with some warming from 10-18 January. NORMAL!
9. South America is projected to be below normal from 2-9 January. And 10-18 January will be even colder. COLD!
10. Australia is projected to be normal from 2-9 January. But 10-18 January will be cooler. COOL!
11. Antarctica has been COOL too.
Total it up: 5 cold, 3 cool, 2 normal and only 1 warm. Let’s see Tricky Jim Hansen fudge this. It’ll be interesting to see the satellite numbers in the months ahead.
The Danish Meteorological Institute also shows a cold Arctic.
Interestingly, Joe Bastardi’s forecast of a cold winter in Turkey looks to be elusive. Yesterday it looked like he would be right, but the latest computer outputs appear to confirm Piers Corbyn’s latest forecast of another winter grip steamrolling over northern and central Europe instead.
Of course we should not forget the oceans. Lots of blue there too. All that barking about global warming and 2010 being so hot that we’ve been hearing is about to get muzzled. Enjoy the silence.
Hansen’s GISS is totally skewed. Here is an explanation that originates from GISS itself, explaining what they do on station moves.
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=753
Whenever a station is moved outwards from an expanding city centre they’ll adjust away the step change in temperatures, thus cementing the gradual UHI increase into the long term spliced record. Science it is not. Fraud more accurately describes it. This also explains why they LOVE anomalies and HATE absolute temperatures.
Australia will be normal from 2 – 9 January.
Some Australians won’t agree with that unless large hail stones are part of the normal summer weather:
The Bureau of Meteorology says a severe thunderstorm late on Sunday night will bring “damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones” to areas including Charleville, Emerald and Blackwater.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12105078
The frost and snow are coming back to the North European coastal area’s although a fight’s still going on between the maritime and arctic air masses.
There is no clear stable pattern as the Jet Stream is rather messed up at this moment in time. http://www.wroxall-weather.co.uk/jetstream.html
For Eastern Europe accumulation of snow has not ceased.
In Estland the snow pack is more than 70 cm, Kuusiku reported 72 cm.
Low temperatures have been reported in Northern Europe again.
In Muonio, Finland last night temps dropped to – 22.1º, in Vilhelmina -24.9º and Horn, Southeast Götaland) -16,1º was measured.
Also lots of cold in Spitsbergen, the Island Hopen – 23.8º and Edgeoya – 26.2º.
Temp and snow info translated from buienradar.nl
This is OT, but:
On the German news tonight, they wre claiming the current floods in Australia to be exactly what “climate scientists” (no names given) had forecasted because of cAGW.
Given the performance of the Australian BOM, this appears quite strange.
Hints and comments, anybody?
Autonomous Mind asked Piers Corbyn and Joe Bastardi what kind of supercomputer they’re using. Their answers:
http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/bastardi-and-corbyn-reply/
This statement by Piers says it best IMHO:
“On supercomputers and the The Met Office I would say that no amount of spending on their approach will ever produce better forecasts in any forecasting more than 3 days ahead. Standard Meteorology has reached the end of its potential. It can go no further.”
I’ve no doubts that Piers’ methodology could be improved upon by throwing a ton of modeling power at it; but the standard approach cannot be improved anymore. He says:
“Let’s be clear no amount of investment in wax technology will ever produce a light bulb.”
So all the claims of climate scientists to have forecast something correctly are just equivalent to a broken watch that is right two times a day. They have no predicitive skill beyond 4 days. And all that blathering about “well, but forecasting a general trend is way easier than forecasting weather events”, well, that’s humbug. The trend manifests itself as the average of the singular events.
When you can’t forecast singular events, you can surely not forecast the trend. All they can is extrapolate the built-in biases of the models.
Had climate scientists been able to forecast the Australian floods, they would never have built this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melbourne_desalination
What they DID foresee was the biggest drought of a 1000 years. Remember: When you’re a soothsayer NEVER admit you’ve been wrong.
They are not what the BOMb “forecast”.
They have an abysmal record in forecasting. Their models seem to have been heavily “trained” to El Niño conditions and don’t take into account lots of common sense factors. Long-term “seasonal” forecasts almost invariably forecast what won’t happen.
Even their forecasts for 1 to 7 days are abysmal. Around here, they are 50:50 for 3 days out. And at best 80% for 2 days.
*I* make better guesses as to 1 to 3 days in my neighbourhood. That’s by looking at the BOM data presented in the MSM. The guesses are from recognizing patterns of airflow, clouds, and an understanding of where the heat comes from and where it “wants” to go.
I saw the cyclone-like formation off the NW coast on the TV weather bulletin, the location and strength of high-pressure cells and the cloud cover over the land. It made more sense for us in the Perth metro area (SW) to see temperatures in the low to mid-30’s along with high humidity, than the BOMb-forecast 40°C.
It’s hard to prove the lie if there are no names.
Ok found it, ZDF
http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/20/0,3672,20,00.html?dr=1
“They have payed for rain, now they have it, but not as salvation, but as catastrophe, just as predict by the climatologists,-…”
In other words, unqualified propagandistic dreck; typical German news reporting standard; asserting untruths in by-sentences.
That’s why i stopped using German news in the first place (only to find the same dreck spreading at the BBC from 2005 onwards). Today, European media are in the same rotten state the Pravda was in pre Soviet collapse.
Sorry, typo:
““They have prayed for rain, “
The media seem to be obsessed with sensationalism. There is no explaination why the flood is so wide-spread. e.g. much of the area is within 10 metres of elevation from the “top” of the rivers. It is very difficult to manage flood waters under these conditions. Moreso because ‘environmentalists’ often prevent dams, dykes, etc from being built. As such, the ‘environmentalists’ are a worse plague on the land than cane toads.
I’m disturbed that the commentary, which appears to be a voice-over of interviewees, does not correspond to what the interviewed said. What’s the purpose of showing somebody speaking when what they are saying is not being reflected?
The conclusion of the ZDF report is also wrong. The flood represents an inconvenience. But it also delivers water and nutrient flows to land. So although a crop may be destroyed, the farm benefits once the flood waters recede. And could benefit even more if they were allowed to manage their own land without requiring government approval.
Thanks for this round-up Pierre. I made a brief survey of cooling in Asia last month, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-warming-hits-asia.html. I hope to make a follow up news survey for this month on the same subject.
Thanks Nonoy. I’ve added you to the blogroll, I look forward to reading more of your posts – PG
Great honor for me, Pierre, thansk a lot!
I made a follow up posting on it, “Global warming hits the Philippines”, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2011/01/global-warming-hits-philippines.html
All that cold in the pipeline! Wonderful sentence.
It’s a travesty they can’t explain it.
La Nina periods typically bring rain to north and eastern Australia. It has nothing to do with global warming . The warmists are now grasping at every possible straw to save their flawed science .
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Piers Corbyn is right for now: It’s back
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/its-back.html
Rainer S
2. Januar 2011 at 22:48 | Permalink | Reply
This is OT, but:
“On the German news tonight, they wre claiming the current floods in Australia to be exactly what “climate scientists” (no names given) had forecasted because of cAGW.
Given the performance of the Australian BOM, this appears quite strange.
Hints and comments, anybody?”
I have a very simple rule for you to follow in order to make your life very easy.
Every time you hear or read about weather events and AGW/Climate Change or Climate Disruption are mentioned as a cause you know you are dealing with Climate Propaganda. OK?
To me a key advance [5-7 months]indicator of global temperatures is the + sign and high positive level [over 20] of the SOI. Expect cooler temperatures to go well into May and even possibly July. This coming spring/summer period may very well be another “summer that never was ”
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
Crises in the East
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/crises-in-east.html
The text below comes from the reference noted at the bottom.
Flooding, unlike drought, is often quite localized, and therefore not as closely tied to broad-scale controls like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. However the La Niña years of 1916, 1917, 1950, 1954 through 1956, and 1973 through 1975, were accompanied by some of the worst and most widespread flooding this century. It can safely be said that, over much of Australia, flooding is more likely than usual during La Niña years, and less likely in El Niño years, though heavy rain and flooding often accompany the breakdown of El Niño in late summer or autumn.
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood.htm
In regard to the Australian floodings, it has all happened before and it will happen again in the future.
We could use a bit of rain in the West.
Below-average (practically meaningless because the mean is dominated by a very wet period) “winter” rainfall, but the summer’s been relatively mild.
What hasn’t helped is sucecssive governments providing water for growing populations. The population has tripled inn the Perth metropolitan area over the past 40 years, but little extra water storage has been provided. Instead, more than half of what used to be stream flows into reservoirs has been diverted to “envrinmental flows”. So recently, they’ve built a desalination plant; driven by coal-fired power stations in practice, but some wind power on paper. This also puts greater demand on a weak electricity supply grid;which struggles to supply on very hot days.
Grand schemes of diverting tropical rains from the north have been dismissed… as have calls by some to review catchment management so that it is more efficient at filling existing reservoirs; and use of gravity-driven desalination from a well-supplied reservoir containing a great deal of water that is too salty for a good cup of tea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12097479
“The western United States is bearing the brunt of new winter storms, with heavy snow blanketing an area from New Mexico to Minnesota. Snow and ice have closed a number of major roads, with Arizona and New Mexico particularly badly hit. Denver, Colorado, had its heaviest snowfall of the season.
Wild weather is also hitting southern states – three people are reported dead after an unseasonal tornado struck Arkansas. Ice and snow forced the temporary closure of Interstates 40 and 17 in northern Arizona, with a traffic hotline in the state taking more than a million calls on Thursday. Phoenix was braced for rare freezing temperatures. Residents are astonished by the sight of snow flurries in the usually temperate southwestern capital.
Many drivers were stranded near the Grand Canyon as all the lanes of Interstate 17 were closed overnight. In Colorado, the Silverton Mountain resort reported huge snowfall and closures for avalanche control. Denver was expecting up to 1ft (30cm) of snow on New Years Eve – United Airlines cancelled 32 flights from the city on Thursday.
Wyoming, Montana and Nevada suffered serious road closures, while a sudden blizzard combined with winds of up to 65mph (105km/h) caused havoc in southern New Mexico. An 80 mile stretch of interstate 40 was closed in New Mexico. Authorites erected a temporary shelter for stranded travellers. Blizzards in Fargo, North Dakota, led to a pile-up of 100 vehicles, with at least two people taken to hospital.”
Distinct nip in air
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/01/distinct-nip-in-air.html
What is disconcerting is that the extent of the recent winter snow advance matches closely the permanent ice that existed in the last glacial period and we are overdue another one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_glacial_period
Ice Ages have always been a bigger threat to mankind than any of the worst fears of AGW. I would actually prefer a worst case scenario of 6c rise due to AGW so we could maybe minimize the next Glacial Period but I don’t think we will be so lucky as I doubt that even if we burnt all the fossil fuels Earth’s temperature would rise by more than 1.0-1.5c which is nothing compared to all the natural solar/ocean/volcano cycles. There may actually come a point sometime in the future when the next Glacial Period is imminent that more powerful greenhouse gases like methane have to be pumped into the atmosphere to fight off the advance of permanent ice into heavily populated areas. This is the real threat posed by our climate not this trillion dollar/euro fraud that is AGW ! If we reclaimed all the land that is currently occupied by permanent ice we could have more plants/trees in these areas which would remove some CO2 which so worries the warmists. A new equilibrium could be reached which would free up more of the Earth for man. It is so shortsighted to think that our current climate is so ideal that we must waste trillions ultimately in a futile attempt to preserve it which is what the last NASA Administrator Mike Griffin said
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18964176/ns/us_news-environment/
‘“I have no doubt that global — that a trend of global warming exists,” NASA Administrator Michael Griffin said in a taped interview that aired Thursday on National Public Radio. “I am not sure that it is fair to say that is a problem we must wrestle with.”
“I guess I would ask which human beings, where and when, are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now, is the best climate for all other human beings. I think that’s a rather arrogant position for people to take,” Griffin said.’
To those also worried about rising sea levels, melting ice also raises land levels which would counter that effect, from my first link …
“Overlying ice had exerted pressure on the Earth’s surface. As a result of melting ice, the land has continued to rise yearly in Scandinavia, mostly in northern Sweden and Finland where the land is rising at a rate of as much as 8–9 mm per year, or 1 meter in 100 years. This is important for archaeologists since a site that was coastal in the Nordic Stone Age now is inland and can be dated by its relative distance from the present shore.”
There will come a time million of years hence when we will genuinely have to worry about global warming but that will be caused by the Sun getting 33% brighter due to aging along the way to turning into a Red Giant. That will eventually boil the water on Earth if we do nothing but I’m confident that giant sun screens put in Space at the Earth/Sun Lagrange Points could counter that initially to buy time although we will inevitably have to move off Earth as it will eventually get swallowed by an expanding Red Sun onto hopefully terraformed Mars and moons of Jupiter and Saturn.
However all this is hundreds of millions hence, our biggest climate program for the next hundreds and thousands of years is fighting off Ice Ages which will destroy our populated lands and people. The AGW movement is misguided but it has ignited concern about our climate and hopefully with the Internet and spreading of truth we can start worrying about the much more real climate danger of Ice. In the meanwhile the citizens of the World also have to rise up and repeal every wasteful and impoverishing anti-fossil fuel/Carbon Law/Tax which has only artificially enriched these charlatans who have foisted this pseudo science scaremongering upon us all. If renewable energy sources are to be used let it be done on economic grounds not lies !
When this interglacial eventually ends it will be sudden (tens/hundreds of years) and will be preceded by one last rise in sea level before a sharp drop.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/30/the-antithesis/
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/hearty-and-neumann-2001-fig-34.jpg
49 states have snow, with Florida the only holdout
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/bizarre/7378228.html
The winter in Germany is over, if you consider the temperatures.
VIVA AGW!!!