Meteorologist Dr Karsten Brandt’s website donnerwetter.de gives his Central European seasonal forecast for the fall and looks ahead into the winter.
The good news is that autumn may turn out to be warm and pleasant for Central Europe. The bad news is that there’s a good chance the winter will be cold.
Brandt writes:
The current long-term prognoses provide a preliminary look into the 2011-2012 winter. For those of you who were hoping for a mild winter after the last snowy and cold winters, which brought traffic chaos and shortages of road salt, you’ll probably end up disappointed: At the moment the indications show that there is going to be a powerful cold phase in the Winter of 2011/2012. At least one, and probably even 2 months are going to be icy.”
Cold winters “due to global warming”
Now for you AGW skeptics out there, don’t you dare go out saying that a cold Central European winter is a sign of cooling. To the contrary according to new models out of Potsdam, cold winters are a sure sign of global warming and man-made climate change, just as this is the case with hot weather. Yes the cold fits right in with the global warming picture – the models say so.
According to Vladimir Petoukhov last year of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam, Germany:
Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large‐scale atmospheric circulation realignment.”
Here he is not just talking about Central Europe, but the northern hemisphere in general.
Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower‐troposphere heating over the B‐K seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anticyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental‐scale winter cooling reaching −1.5°C, with more than 3 times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe.”
This is all getting quite confused. Global warming causes colder winters. Warmer ocean waters cause more cyclones, But if the warmer ocean waters are in the Arctic then they are actually “anti-cyclonic”…which means less storms. If all that doesn’t make sense, well that’s because nonsense, confusion and psychosis are also traced back to AGW. A recent study said so.
One thing is certain: Natural climate change is causing lots of silly science.
Here you have yet another “scientist” who intends to build up his credibility based on failed AGW prognoses when he claims a linkage between the cold events and AGW.
The question we have to ask ourselves is how stupid do they think we really are.
Despite all the propaganda carried by billions of tax payer money the majority of the public no longer believes AGW is a threat.
Their crooked science has failed, their propaganda campaign has failed, the carbon trading scheme has failed and the “alternative green power generation” has failed.
What they succeeded in unfortunately is an enormous pile of Green rules, regulations, hiked power bills and an increasingly unreliable energy infrastructure.
There are two questions left:
Are we going to let them get away with it.
How long are we going to tolerate the Green Mess and all the rules and regulations.
I personally think the entire political and financial structure of centralized planning is going to come crashing down.
I say bring it on, the sooner the better.
[…]”simulated large‐scale atmospheric circulation realignment.” – BS!
Realignment = is the key word.
We’ve already had a realignment, it was AGW became climate change, which means warming, cooling and anything you like = AGW.
Geddit?
Can the Potsdam ‘Institute’, really claim to be a serious academic faculty dedicated to empirical science, I mean what does 2 + 2 actually equal in Potsdam these days…………..er……………a ‘realignment’ means 2 + 2 = “whatever answer – we say it can be”……………….it is a dangerous thing when man tries to rewrite the rules……………….. truly worrying.
And how’s this for post normal thinking:
“when global warming is mentioned it isn’t always necessarily man-made global warming that is being discussed.”
I’ve read this 3 x and cannot yet make sense of it.
http://politics.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474980226726
Get ready to weep.
“Can the Potsdam ‘Institute’, really claim to be a serious academic faculty dedicated to empirical science”
It’s the German equivalent to the Tyndall centre, so the answer is a resounding “No!”.
Post-Normal Science was invented in 1991.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-normal_science
The PIK was founded in 1992.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam-Institut_f%C3%BCr_Klimafolgenforschung
Post-Normal Science made it possible to justify fudging the numbers for political purposes and call it science; and have a Western equivalent of Soviet Dialectic Materialism. The Soviet Union ceased to exist in 1991. Probably the Western governments hired some talent from there that told them how to instrumentalize science best. And probably todays Deutsche Welle and BBC are shaped after the image of the Soviet Novostij; with the help of that talent.
Thats very interesting, very interesting and quite feasible.
The AGW message is getting more confusing all the time . IPCC in their 2007 report with their climate prediction for Europe said :
“Annual mean temperatures in Europe are likely to increase more than the global mean. The warming in northern Europe is likely to be largest in winter.”
Now the message is the opposite .There is no credibilty left at AGW or IPCC
You might like this
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml
So the BBC Weather Centre can tell us what the weather will be doing on a “typical day” in 2020, 2050 and 2080, but they spectacularly fail to predict the weather for a “typical day” in a weeks time?
That’s the difference between weather and climate. Also, predictions for next week can be falsified before the next election term; those for, say, 2088 can’t. And of course Everything is just politics, and nothing but: Has no one been listening to the pundits in the media and universities since 1968?
Think the title should read Winter 2011-12.
Just a bit of Pal Review !
Oops!
THANKS for catching that
Four days til Gore’s spamathon.
Yeah, I can’t wait for the entertainment to start – I have the beers and popcorn ready 🙂
What a horrible thought.
Beer and popcorn? Beer and bread, mustard and bratwurst even better.
Come on, boys, this man is working hard for his money. I have missed what he is going to do. Will it become a kind of Billy Graham manifestation in a football stadion, with witnesses of recent converts? Is it broadcast on TV or does he use internet?
You probably should have googled cyclone and anti-cyclone first. I mean, if you can misinterpret basic meteorological terms, it doesn’t do much for your credibility. Both cyclones and anticlocles are wind vortecies, one with winds swirling inward, the other with wind swirling outwards.
Recapping todays lesson, anti-cyclonic doesn’t mean “something that stops cyclones.”
Good luck with the whole understanding science thing.