Veteran Meteorologist On PIK Greenland Scenario: “Oracle of Delphi…They’ve Opened Up The Seven Seals!”

Prophetic revelations of disturbing end of world visions

PIK Makes The Ice Melt Away
By Meteorologist Klaus Eckart Puls
(Translated, condensed by P Gosselin)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid recently came out with computer-model generated scenarios showing that Greenland would melt away [1]. This scenario of course was all designed to produce spectacular headlines of a coming apocalypse for the media. And that, it did. The PIK study contained the following core statement:

Here, using a fully coupled model, we show that this criterion systematically overestimates the temperature threshold and that the Greenland ice sheet is more sensitive to long-term climate change than previously thought. We estimate that the warming threshold leading to a monostable, essentially ice-free state is in the range of 0.8–3.2°C, with a best estimate of 1.6°C ” … For 2.0°C regional summer warming, which is just above the deglaciation threshold in the representative case, complete melting of the GIS takes about 50,000 years. In contrast, with warming of 4,0°C, the ice sheet needs about 8,000 years to melt completely, and for warming of 8°C, 20% of the ice sheet melts in just 500 years and the entire ice sheet melts within about 2,000 years.”

All of this is based on a model – written up to produce a desired result. And from the desired model results, the scientists concluded:

Therefore, if anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the coming century drive the temperature considerably above the deglaciation threshold, irreversible total loss of the GIS will be difficult to avoid, ensuring continued substantial sea-level rise for millennia.”

The PIK press release even went so far to claim that their scenarios for the future are likely spot on:

The Model has proven that it can not only correctly calculate today’s observed ice cover, but also its development all the way back to the last ice age. That’s why the simulation is also trusted to correctly estimate the future. All this makes the new estimations more reliable than the previous.”

So this produces the impression that anthropogenic CO2 leads to continued warming with the catastrophic consequences for Greenland ice and sea level.

Now is a good time to tell readers why the PIK’s model scenarios are a load of manure: First, we have models where nature always ends up doing everything completely different. What are model speculations for centuries and even millenia into the future worth when already the current trends are talking a completely different language?

(1) Not predicted by a single model: The Earth has not warmed in 14 years [3] .
(2) For 14 years there has not been any correlation between CO2 and global temperature.
(3) This correlation is fundamentally, hotly and increasingly disputed [2].
(4) Sea level rise shows that over the last years, and foremost now, there is no acceleration [7] – instead we have a deceleration.
(5) And the most absurd of all: the study and the press release are speculating thousands of years into the future, as if it were like next month.

All the speculation is based on a computer model. Models are computer scenarios, and are not prognoses. Just as prognoses– e.g. for economics, weather, social structure, etc. – for political, business and private decisions are fraught with uncertainty, model scenarios for decisions for far-reaching measures are useless.

Another important question amid all this is being avoided: How is it that the Greenland Ice Sheet never experienced extensive melting (let alone a complete meltdown) over the Holocene when at times it was warmer than today over hundreds of years, see figure below?

Alpine glaciologist E. Patzelt [5] also writes:

Proxy temperature records for the temperature development show that 65% of the last 10,000 years the summer half-year was just as warm or warmer than today. The current temperature development is within the normal range of variability. Warm phases of this type have always been called ‘climate optimums’.”

One needs to take this much more into consideraion in the current climate discussion. This will not lead to a complete melting of the glaciers, neither in the Alps, nor in Greenland.

Finally, veteran meteorologist Dr. Wolfgang Thüne puts it in plain words (emphasis added) when asked what he thought about the PIK’s thousand-year model prognoses [6] :”

Nothing! Theoretically, you can think up anything, dress it up in formulae and calculate that the end of the world will occur in exactly 1900 years. In 2000 years, when it comes to an ice-free Greenland, man will have been defrauded. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reminds me of the Greek ‘Oracle of Delphi’, or the ‘Book of Revelation’, the vision of the apocalypse with its prophetic picture sequences . The world was supposed to end already back in 1033 and the IPCC prophesied in 2007 a climate collapse for 2020. With their super computers the climate scientists would have us believe that they have opened up the ‘Seven Seals’ and revealed ‘God’s Plan’.”

References:

[1] http://www.pik-potsdam.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/gronlands-eismassen-konnten-komplett-schmelzen-bei-1-6-grad-globaler-erwarmung; 11.03.2012

[2] A.Robinson, R.Calov and A.Ganopolski;  Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet; NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE / ADVANCE ONLINE PUBLICATION, www.nature.com/natureclimatechange , © 2012 Macmillan
Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

[3] http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-cache/g-l-o-b-a-l-c-o-o-l-i-n-g-wo-bleibt-die-erderwaermung/; 25.02.2012

[4] F.Vahrenholt & S.Lüning, Die Kalte Sonne, Hoffmann u. Campe, (2012)

[5] G. Patzelt, Gletscherschwund und Vorzeitklima, Bergauf, 2 (2008), S. 34-35, Innsbruck

[6] Luxembg. Tageblatt,15. März 2012, Das Orakel von Delphi; http://www.tageblatt.lu/nachrichten/story/-Orakel-von-Delphi–11105134

Also read here: http://drtimball.com/2012/sensationalist-and-distorted-climate-stories-increase-as-climate-science-failures-exposed/

 

16 responses to “Veteran Meteorologist On PIK Greenland Scenario: “Oracle of Delphi…They’ve Opened Up The Seven Seals!””

  1. Mindert Eiting

    Perhaps we should see this as state-sponsored entertainment. It’s an alternative to the old-fashioned magician drawing rabbits out of his sleeve. Nobody sees the input and PIK proudly presents a molten Greenland as output. If everybody understands the deception, it may become fun for many years to come and PIK staff doesn’t have to be fired.

    1. Ulrich Elkmann

      Ah, no. Every stage conjurer who claims that his feats are more than a clever illusion is hounded out of the fraternity (also, of course, if he reveals any trrick, even if everybody knows how it is achieved). Just ask Uri Geller. But then, they might borrow a few tricks from, say, David Copperfield. He made the Statue of Liberty disappear. Ice caps might take a little longer: but they have been pracitcing with the MWP and the Little Ice Age…

  2. Bruce of Newcastle

    But they have a very big supercomputer. So big the waste heat from it can melt Greenland all by itself.

    Disagree with your comment about sea level decelerating. It is going in reverse, all (raw) datasets. Down is not slower up. Envisat trend is flat for 7 years if you discount their unexplained adjustment early this month.

    I hope Herr Doktor Schellnhuber enjoys snow, the Sun seems happy to deliver him more. Greenland melting, not so much.

  3. DirkH

    I do in fact enjoy The Book Of Revelations much more than the PIK’s papers, especially the original Luther text (don’t buy a modern German bible that says it has Luther’s translation; they usually flat out lie and butchered it to accomodate to modern language use; all the poetry is lost) and the King James version of course.

  4. John F. Hultquist

    “The Model has proven that it can not only correctly calculate today’s observed ice cover, but also its development all the way back to the last ice age. That’s why the simulation is also trusted to correctly estimate the future.” [PIK press release]

    They are talking about Greenland, I think. They have just two or three good data points to work with. The ice cover now and the ice cover at the last ice age. Without a computer of any sort it ought to be a simple task to connect these dots. How they incorporate CO2 into this simple concept is irrelevant.

    Still the model can be “trusted to correctly estimate the future.” This is one big load of night-soil. They should have applied their talents, a “coupled model”, and their super computer to the USA’s March Madness tournament brackets. Correct results throughout might impress us all.

    Well, perhaps they have simulated a refined version of the Milankovitch cycles. An overview of that might be interesting.

  5. Pascvaks

    When the rate of progress in science slows to a trickle –actually it applies to just about anything people poke their nose into– the more “lite-ended” among us come crawling out of the woodwork and scurry around defecating on everything and everyone. They are actually always present, it’s not true that they ever really go away, it’s just that during better times there are far, far fewer of them and we think they no longer exist anymore. It’s a lot like the old story of lemmings, or lice, sometimes (because everything in the ‘environment’ is just so right for them) their numbers explode and we all suffer the consequences; especially with respect to lice. Just as there are moments in history when wisdom and true enlightenment explode upon the scene, there are also the ages of darkness and delusion, of stupidity and serendipity, of waste and foolishness, of easy money and powerful drugs to take our minds off the hateful things like hard work and the fact that people are not really all alike, etc, etc, etc.

    PS: Don’t blame the lice, really they’re just being lice.

  6. Ulrich Elkmann

    Hildegard von Bingen, 12th ct.:
    “The great nation will be devastated by earthquakes, storms, and great waves of water, causing much want and plagues. The ocean will also flood many other countries, so that all coastal cities will live in fear, with many destroyed. All sea coast cities will be fearful and many of them will be destroyed by tidal waves, and most living creatures will be killed and even those who escape will die from a horrible disease.”
    http://www.unitypublishing.com/prophecy/HildigardSaint.htm

    1. DirkH

      How did she determine whether what she saw was the future or only the future papers of the PIK?

      1. Mindert Eiting

        If seeing the future is a matter of telepathic contact, she was likely in contact with someone at PIK. Does this answer your question?

  7. Asmilwho

    PIK in the form of Stefan Rahmsdorf is also beating the drum here:

    “Climate change linked to EXTREME weather surge”

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/27/weather_extremes_and_global_warming/

  8. DirkH

    2007: Venture capitalist and Obama bundler John Doerr cries about climate change on stange when mentioning his daughter. He has 2.2 bn USD.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66IwNyKC5K0
    On his wikipedia page:
    “Doerr is a high profile supporter of the Democratic Party in Silicon Valley. Through the TechNet (lobbying organization) he helped found, he has devoted much time and money towards impacting legislation beneficial to the technology industry.”
    “In February, 2009, Doerr was appointed as a member to the USA Economic Recovery Advisory Board by President Barack Obama to provide the President and his administration with advice and counsel in fixing America’s economic downturn.”
    (A little thankyou for the bundling)
    It is said he is behind Ecotality, the company currently under SEC investigation that received 130 million USD for the creation of 144 jobs and the probably finest electric car charger in the world:
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/03/26/feds-give-millions-in-grants-to-company-under-sec-investigation

  9. mwhite

    Must be because it’s spring, from the BBCs flagship science programme

    HORIZON – Global Wierding

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01f893x

    “Something weird seems to be happening to our weather – it appears to be getting more extreme.

    In the past few years we have shivered through two record-breaking cold winters and parts of the country have experienced intense droughts and torrential floods. It is a pattern that appears to be playing out across the globe. Hurricane chasers are recording bigger storms and in Texas, record-breaking rain has been followed by record-breaking drought.

    Horizon follows the scientists who are trying to understand what’s been happening to our weather and investigates if these extremes are a taste of what is to come”

    1. DirkH

      They have Hayhoe. She pimps out GCM’s for cash:
      http://atmosresearch.com/who_katharine.html

      You know what to expect from a rent-seeker like that.

  10. Bernd

    Off-topic … but noteworthy that the new government of Queensland has begun dismantling the “Green” scams.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/campbell-newman-orders-anna-blighs-husband-greg-withers-to-kill-green-schemes/story-fnbsqt8f-1226311864712

    1. Josh

      Indeed. Queensland will be better off with out them, economically and environmentally. Let’s hope for a similar result at a federal level

  11. Casper