This summer in Western Europe has been a cool and wet one. People are now wondering about all those model projections calling for blast-furnace summers accompanied by killer droughts, which the media have been warning us about year after year.
Not to worry, says meteorologist Mario Slongo, former weather expert for DRS 1; they are surely coming. He adds that the cool, wet weather we are experiencing is completely normal. Yes, with man-made climate change, all you need is faith. Just believe it.
The Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung interviews meteorologist Mario Slongo on the greenhouse effect, climate cycles and misconceptions.
If Slongo confirms anything in the interview, it is that AGW and man-made climate change are indeed religious belief. The NZZ asks: “Have extreme weather conditions generally increased?” Slongo answers (my emphasis):
Yes, the tendency for weather patterns that favor storms has increased, even if this cannot be confirmed statistically. But many other factors impact our weather. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation, a pressure fluctuation between the Azore’s High and Iceland Low. This pressure difference is continuously changing and will soon bring dry and soon very wet weather.”
Firstly, you can’t claim something surely exists if you can’t observe it. There’s a reason why it cannot be “statistically confirmed”…like maybe because it isn’t there in the first place! Models are not reality, Mr Slongo. They are digital fantasy.
Secondly, the climate models, on which our duped, drugged-up-on-green policymakers have based so many political decisions, should have taken the NAO (and all the other factors) into account before basing all the nutty climate projections for Europe solely on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Modellers would have saved themselves lots of embarrassment.
German summers defy model projections – cooling instead of warming
In another story, reader Josef Kowatsch now shows us that German summers have not only gotten wetter, but have also gotten cooler thus completely contradicting the “unquestionable” forecasts made by the “sophisticated” models of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg.
Here’s the chart Mr. Kowatsch sent me by e-mail, one that the press refuses to acknowledge:
Summer temperatures JJA in Germany over the last 15 years. Temperatures have been falling over the last decade. Chart based on data from the DWD German Weather Service.
The linear trend for the summer over the last 15 years is constant at 17.4 °C. After this summer it will decline slightly, as the polynomial curve continues downwards after 2011.
In the vocabulary of climate science, one thing is becoming very clear: “accelerating” means “disappearing”.
When I was a child someone made me afraid of a Manbearpig hiding itself in the toilet. He could pull you below the water into the drain. This was really nasty because if the creature did not catch you today he could do it tomorrow. It took quite a time before I was no longer afraid on the toilet. Mario Slongo may have a similar problem but it can be solved by time.
Like Hanako-san?
http://pinktentacle.com/2010/04/hanako-san-terror-of-the-toilet/
(the Brazilian version is known as “A loira de banheiro”.)
Wow, Ulrich, this story is classic, of all cultures and times we have toilets. My experience with Manbearpig was around 1950.
Is he related to Prof. Julia Slingo OBE ?
(YES! Of course these people get the honors! Just like Creepy Uncle Joe Schellnhuber has a Bundesverdienstkreuz:
http://www.pnn.de/campus/583098/
Nomenklatura anyone?)
By the way, this “trust your gut” thing about AGW also applies to the accusation that skeptic climate scientists are corrupted by fossil fuel industry funding. I’ve seen in brought up in several of my jousts with AGW believers, the quickest one I could find is in the 2nd paragaph of the comment here, where I was asking the gentlelady if she could dredge up any proof that such skeptics are corrupt: http://nondisposableearth.wordpress.com/2011/02/06/dont-be-confused-about-climate-change-anymore/#comment-71
I quote, ” … Whether or not there is a memo I have no doubt that industry is dishonest, which is the bottom line. It sounds like you really need to see this evidence before you are convinced. Can’t you just trust your gut feelings? …”
My God. Can anyone imagine how such a prosecution argument would stand up in a court of law? However, this is no less than exactly what has been pushed in the court of public opinion by the AGW believers, without a shred of proof to back it up. Perhaps unfair of me not to tell the gentlelady that I had already found the infamous coal industry I was talking about in her comment section, but it illustrates how such people appear to just accept without question what’s been handed to them by Gore, Greenpeace, etc.
But as I pointed out in my most recent American Thinker article (“Global Warming’s Killer: Critical Thinking” http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/global_warmings_killer_critical_thinking.html
), AGW science AND the accusation against skeptic scientists must be put to very hard scrutiny of the facts at hand. When both fail in myriad ways, we have the potential for a collapse of the entire ideology.
Has anyone come across a study or two that formally researches and illustrates the decline in intelligence of Western PhD’s in the last 50 years? I know that statistically there are more now than ever with the title “Doc”, and I know in my heart of hearts that while it may not be confirmed statistacally that they are dumber now that ever before that I am right to conclude such a thing is in fact a fact. I have a feeling see! A very strong feeling see! I can feel it, really!(SarcOff)
PS: I’m not entirely joking, I really do think that they’re getting dumber by the decade and we are all the poorer for it.
It’s called the Higher Education Bubble.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/05/update-on-the-higher-education-bubble.php
It is said that Göttingen is the German city with the highest percentage of PhD taxi drivers. I know two PhD IT administrators personally.
What we need is to have the PhD “climatologists” drive taxis.
That would indeed solve several problems quite elegantly!
As a concession to their religious beliefs, I would allow the taxis to be Toyota Priuses.
I do not have the literature at hand but remember that in the seventees in The Netherlands the so called ‘intellectual reserve’ among men was pretty well exhausted regarding universities. In those days women had still a backlog eliminated in the years thereafter. In Amsterdam intelligence tests were administered to many students of different sciences. Some surprising results I remember was that medicine students were the least intelligent. Of course physics students were among the brightest but also students of languages and history. But I have to cite from memory. Don’t overestimate the capacities of the old intellectual elite because we easily remember the great ones only.
Let’s party like it’s 2007. During the “Petersberger Climate Dialog”, a special little German government climate shindig only for our , I dunno, local propagandists and Shellnhuber and the other pseudoscientists , Merkel warns against a warming by 4 degree C; her new enviro minister Altmaier, same as the old enviro minister, talks about a “coalition of the willing” self-flagellating countries which voluntarily punish themselves so that all other nations can have a good laugh.
http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2012-07/altmaier-klimaschutz
http://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2012-07/petersberger-klimadialog-merkel
Unfortunately it’s not just local:
http://www.bmu.de/pressemitteilungen/aktuelle_pressemitteilungen/pm/48944.php
“Umweltminister und hochrangige Vertreter aus rund 30 Staaten diskutieren ab Montag (16. Juli 2012) die politischen Kernfragen im Vorfeld der diesjährigen UN-Klimakonferenz in Doha (Katar).”
“The Minister of the Environment and high-ranking representitives from around 30 states will discuss the central political questions in advance of this years UN conference in Doha” (my translation)
Oh come on. 20 of those will be EU protectorate governors with no say whatsoever, clacqeurs for Her Warmist Majesty Merkel.
When I first read “Petersberg” I thought it’s some sh$thole quarter in Potsdam but it turns out it’s a rather nice place.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotel_Petersberg
I’m pretty sure it’s just the usual pretense to squander our money on a little junket before the big junket.
“oh come on” Huh???? Where did that come from?
Well if you don’t believe me:
http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article108307672/Und-noch-ein-Anlauf-zum-Klimaschutz.html
Taking part:
Russia, China, Japan, US, mexiko, Saudi Arabia, Qatar (will be prsident of Dohar meeting) …
Still think it’s only local?
Well okay, it’s a bunch of environment ministers from all over the world, meeting in a conference room in Berlin.
http://www.bmu.de/petersberger_konferenz/doc/48881.php
Ironically, even though it’s called Petersberger Dialog (the Petersberg being near Bonn) this one happens in Berlin (400 km from the Petersberg.). Obviously not important enough to drag everyone into the hills of Bonn.
Here’s the concluding document:
http://www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/petersberg_3_conclusions_bf.pdf
They agreed that they have made a lot of progress, congratulated each other for their good work, and are looking forward to meet again.
with all due respect, but drawing a “polynomial” (of what order? second? third? foruth?) through the few scattered datapoints and claiming the projection into the future has any skill at all is complete BS, perfectly on the same line as the utterings of Slongo.
Well, it’s only 2 years short of Santer’s magical 17 years from which on a lack of warming suddenly becomes climatically meaningful. As Santer has written at least one summary of the IPCC reports all on his own he must be a very important scientist so 15 years ain’t that bad, n’est-ce pas?
BTW, looks like the endgame for German PV company SolarWorld.
http://www.comdirect.de/inf/aktien/detail/uebersicht.html?ID_NOTATION=142944
In contrast, Dr. Roy Spencer puts a line on his temperatre chart that says:
“The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.”
Quite so.
Can someone comment on the observation (19.7) for 2003. Without that far flung number this chart is totally unremarkable. Well, one could remark that if one is looking for a tipping point into the burning Earth scenario these numbers disappoint.
Germany is not big, 1,000 km times 500 km or so, so a blocking pattern of sufficient stability can easily skew the statistic. I think that was the year when I was unemployed, I was bicycling a lot and always had my tub filled with cold water to refresh myself. My flat is in the 2nd story under the roof and can get pretty hot, and like most Germans I have no A/C at home, which would sit idle anyway most of the year.
It was a great year for me, BTW.
Thanks Dirk,
Here’s the first link on a search:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave#Germany
“Models are not reality, Mr Slongo. They are digital fantasy”
Even the UEA are having doubts about their climate “models”
http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/meteorologists_blame_the_jet_stream_for_east_anglia_s_miserable_summer_1_1446613
Clare Goodess, a senior researcher at the climatic research unit at the UEA, said “There is strong evidence to say human influence can cause an increase in extreme rainfall, but the one slightly puzzling thing, which is contradictory to our models, is why this seems to be happening in summer rather than winter.”
Extremes in the climate have increased since 2009, but it is due to THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRUCLATION INDEX, becoming more meridional. A trend which should continue to increase going forward. It is not due to global warming.
What everyone seems to forget, is the global warming models all predicted LESS EXTREMES ,in the climate going forward. The useless models all said the Arctic Oscillation would trend more and more toward a POSITIVE reading.(zonal,less extremes) The opposite is happening.
The frauds that they are,(the global warming community) they are now trying to claim the models predicted more extremes in the climate. The reality is the models predicted less extremes in the climate,not more. The other reality is extremes in the climate have been on the increase for the past 5 years, and the ACI (atmosheric circulation index )confirms this.
It can be shown when solar activity goes into a prolong minimum period(this one started in 2005 and should last till 2035) the amount of UV light being emitted from the sun decreases, this in turn effects the OZONE concentrations with the end result, a more meridional jet stream. It happened during the last two solar minimums the Maunder Minimum, and the Dalton Minimum, and it is happening once again with this current prolong solar minimum.
Apparently, the models predicted both less and more extremes, making them remarkably fit for survival.
Yes, nomatter what happens in the world of climate,that being droughts,floods, cold waves,heat waves ,it was all predicted by those fantastic global warming models.
They can’t ever be wrong, because when ever the climate changes the spin is on to say, The models said so.
The models are so far off. Everything they have said would happen, has not happened, from the atmospheric circulation patterns, to the temperature profile of the atmosphere. They are a complete failure.
I put the chances of a temperature increase from here to the end of the decade, at a 0 % probability.