German Public Television Airing “Der Super-Frost” – Asks If Warming Will Cause An Ice Age

Climate science is hopelessly confused. A few years ago we were told to expect more hurricanes, but have since gotten almost none. We were told we would get winters without snow, instead we’re now getting hit by bitter cold, snowy winters. We were told to expect an Arctic melt down, and now they are telling us to expext a new ice age.

Is it any wonder that nobody believes climate scientists anymore?

This week German NTV public television is broadcasting a show titled “Der Super Frost” – scheduled to air Wednesday evening at 11 p.m. CET. Hat-tip to Die kalte Sonne website. “Der Super Frost” just happens to be the Mega Freeze episode of the US Mega Disasters series from 2006 (see trailer below).

In the trailer, they ask if global warming will lead to a tipping to global freezing, in which case we would have to call it global cooling – which in reality climate scientists say is now global warming.

This show isn’t just some outdated theory from 2006. Once again today the notion that warming will lead to an ice age is coming back. For example last week German daily Bild here (and a host of other German media outlets) carried the story from scientist Jennifer Francis of Rutgers-University. Bild opened with:

In the Arctic it is getting warmer and warmer, the ice sheet covering the sea has reached a record minimum. Scientists fear that the winter in North America and Europe will therefore become extremely icy! Meaning: The Arctic sea is releasing more and more heat into the air – and this delivers frigid cold!

Wow! warming produces extreme cold. It really does, the scientists say. So should we be preparing for a bitter cold winter? Well, not really. You see Bild reports that these Francis added an opt-out provision to cover her tush:

However, many factors play a role, like snow cover in Siberia or also tropical influences. Thus despite less sea ice coverage, sometimes also mild and wet winters may remain – like last year. Climate scientist Francis: ‘I can only say that it will probably be a very interesting winter.’“

If that’s all you can say, then why did you tell us the rest? Is it because now, no matter what happens, you and the rest of the charlatans will be able to say your models predicted it?

If their idiotic hypothesis that a warm Arctic produces a cold northern hemisphere were true, then the opposite would have to be true. That is, when there’s lots of sea ice, as was the case 35 years ago, then North American and European winters would have to be very mild. That was not the case.

As climatologist Pat Michaels says, the hypothesis is horseshit.

 

16 responses to “German Public Television Airing “Der Super-Frost” – Asks If Warming Will Cause An Ice Age”

  1. Salvatore Del Prete

    You both don’t get it. A warmish Arctic due to a -AO/NAO causes the N.H. to cool down overall, if the atmospheric circulation stays in a negative mode.

    It is not that global warming causes cooling, rather that a -AO causes the Arctic to be warmer then normal ,and the rest of the N.H. overtime to cool.

    So global warming is not going to be the cause of snowier winters rather it is going to be a more meridional pattern going forward.

    The two biggest influences on a more meridional pattern(-ao are prolong minimum solar activity with an easterly qbo, and high latitude vocanic activity,

    1. DirkH

      “You both don’t get it.” Salvatore, it’s not about your explanation, it’s about the propaganda video.

      Watch the trailer. It says “Could Global Warming cause temperatures to plummet?” Listen to it.

      1. DirkH

        And energetically, no it couldn’t – if it existed. If the CO2AGW theory were correct, it would lead to warming. This warming would be stronger at the poles due to the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, and therefore the Earth would become less stormy as temperature differences would be dampened. Cool places would warm up far more than already warm places.

  2. Climate Scientists Take A Ride On the Wild Side « Tarpon's Swamp

    […] German Public Television Airing “Der Super-Frost” – Asks If Warming Will Cause An Ice Age Climate science is hopelessly confused. A few years ago we were told to expect more hurricanes, but have since gotten almost none. We were told we would get winters without snow, instead we’re now getting hit by bitter cold, snowy winters. We were told to expect an Arctic melt down, and now they are telling us to expext a new ice age. […]

  3. Bernd Felsche

    Local government promises to fix (40% of) heating costs for 10 years. http://www.volksstimme.de/nachrichten/lokal/halberstadt/933960_Unsicherheit-und-Aengste-bei-Fernwaerme.html

    Doomed. Not suprised that Halberstadt is a member/supporter/victim of ICLEI. Probably costing unwitting locals millions to perpetrate the fantasies. The waste has been happening for decades. Promoted at the highest levels of German government. vis: http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/13/105/1310541.asc
    —- quote —-
    b) Wie unterstützt die Bundesregierung Diskussion und Umsetzung des
    LA 21-Prozesses?
    Als Ausfluß der kommunalen Selbstverwaltung liegt die Zuständigkeit für
    die Erstellung und Durchführung Lokaler Agenden bei den Kommunen. Der
    Bund kann den “Agenda-Prozeß” nur durch die Förderung von
    Modellprojekten, die Vergabe von Forschungs- und Entwicklungsvorhaben
    oder die Bereitstellung von Arbeitshilfen unterstützen.
    Beispiel dafür ist das vom Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz
    und Reaktorsicherheit geförderte Forschungsvorhaben im Stadtbezirk
    Berlin-Köpenick. Ziel des Vorhabens ist die wissenschaftliche
    Begleitung der Erarbeitung einer Lokalen Agenda für diesen Berliner
    Stadtbezirk. Inhaltliche Schwerpunkte der Studie sind eine
    umweltverträgliche Stadt- und Regionalplanung, die Verkehrsvermeidung
    und -Verlagerung, ein rationeller Energieeinsatz, aber auch Themen wie
    Arbeitsplätze im Umweltschutz, Förderung regionaler Märkte und Nord-
    Süd-Partnerschaft. Im Rahmen der Studie werden auch allgemeine
    Empfehlungen erarbeitet, die anderen Kommunen eine wichtige
    Hilfestellung für die Umsetzung einer Lokalen Agenda 21 bieten können.
    Darüber hinaus wurde ein Forschungsvorhaben “Umweltwirksamkeit
    kommunale Agenda 21 — Pläne zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung” an den
    Internationalen Rat für kommunale Umweltinitiativen (ICLEI) in Freiburg
    vergeben (Laufzeit: Juni 1996 bis Juni 1998)

    Der systematischen Umsetzung in konkrete Handlungsschritte und der
    praktischen Erarbeitung eines Handlungsprogramms im Sinne der Agenda 21
    dient außerdem das Projekt “Städte der Zukunft — Strategien einer
    nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung” des Bundesministeriums für Raumordnung,
    Bauwesen und Städtebau. Vorrangiges Ziel ist eine nachhaltige Wohnungs-
    und Städtebaupolitik durch wissenschaftlich gestützte Strategien und
    empfohlene Maßnahmen nachvollziehbar sowie quantitativ und qualitativ
    ablesbar zu machen. Neben den vier “Modellstädten der Zukunft” soll in
    einem Netzwerk nationaler und internationaler Korrespondenzstädte das
    Gesamtprojekt begleitet und wissenschaftlich ausgewertet werden.
    Die Bundesregierung hat mit o. g. Forschungs- und Modellvorhaben
    umfangreiche Maßnahmen getroffen, um dem Bedarf an bundesweiten,
    umfassenden Konzeptionen zur Bündelung und Effektivierung gerecht zu
    werden. Sie wird ihre Beratung und Unterstützung durch entsprechende
    Vorhaben weiter fortsetzen.
    —- end quote ——

    Das deutsche Volk: Aus allem Höhen beschissen.

    1. DirkH

      Rejoyce!
      ICLEI is extremely pissed at the outcome of Rio+20.
      http://local2012.iclei.org/news-and-events/
      All these years of slaving away in the system and nothing has been achieved! All the shattered dreams and hopes and lifeyears!

    2. DirkH

      “Local government promises to fix (40% of) heating costs for 10 years. ”

      Bernd, as I understand it, the 40% that get fixed are the price component that pays for the expansion; these are calculable capital cost so it makes sense to fix them in advance. The other 60% of the ratepayer tariff are variable with the price of NatGas.

      That’s a reasonable contract.

    3. DirkH

      Currently ongoing ICLEI-related money squandering:
      ExWoSt
      http://www.bbsr.bund.de/cln_032/nn_21686/BBSR/DE/FP/ExWoSt/Forschungsfelder/2012/ImmoRisk/01__Start.html
      ImmoRisk
      http://www.klima-und-raum.org/risikoabsch%C3%A4tzung-der-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-klimafolgen-der-immobilien-und-wohnungswirtschaft-immorisk

      Their major problem: People are not worried enough about climate change.
      Their occupation: Producing useless studies, achieving nothing.

  4. Bernd Felsche

    District heating makes physical sense in only limited areas.

    If the district heating plant is e.g. gas-fired and only produces heat, then it doesn’t make sense in terms of energy or capital investment. Gas is easier to distribute than hot water with the same thermal “content” and gas heaters in homes are near-enough 100% efficient. To achieve that level of thermal efficiency with district heating requires not only large investment in insulated plumbing, but also much more substantial earthworks (trenches, ducts, access into building basements, …), along with maintenance and susceptability to wayward shovels.

    And then there’s the small matter of effective metering of energy consumed by households with district heating. Metering sensible heat is not simple. Halberstadtwerke provide no (online) pricing for district heating; other than a discount for electricity used by those who want to sink some heat. But then, my German is not very good. I don’t understand how they can call this “Entwicklung”:
    http://cms.halberstadtwerke.de/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1584&Itemid=292

    When used in conjunction with electricity generation, the district heating circuit constitutes part of a necessary heat sink that allows the thermo-machinery to operate, producing electricity. There is no saving in capital equipment for heat exchangers as the heating demand is lowest when the need to reject heat for producing electricty for ventilation and airconditioning (all those new shopping arcades) is highest.

    Halberstadtwerke reports that they have 170 Fernwärme customers. A diminishing number on a shrinking network. In a shrinking city that’s pulling down post-unification-refurbished buildings because there’s a housing glut as a result of emigration in the pursuit of jobs. Many of the “new jobs” in the regions were reliant on subsidies.

    Throwing the “Neue Bundesländer” into the swimming pool of capitalism was bound to result in many drownings when the people weren’t first given a chance to learn to swim.

    Halberstadt seems a pleasant place to live at the foot of the Harz mountains. Especially now that the brooks in the mountians no longer smell like petrol bowsers. The question of being able to earn a living in the region is a different one. Geographically, there is certainly space for industry but there are obvious gaps in infrastructure and, it seems to me, a general unwillingness in all of Germany to invest in new capacity to produce stuff that is worth something. Few take such risks without subsidies; which might be a reaction to governments otherwise regulating a business out of existence.

    But I digress…

    District heating become diminidhingly less sensible the lower the density of housing and its proximity with the heat source.

    I’ve pondered in the past of owning and operating my own diesel generator to produce electricty for myself, independent of the grid. My total energy consumption at home is electrical; except for a solar hot water system that needs an electric “booster” running for half an hour a day over 3 months a year. Daily (60-day) average consumption ranges from 15 to 25kWh a day. At about 220g/kWh for the diesel generator, grid electricity costs would have to approximately double from the current price to make it financially viable. The non-heating (space and water) winter electricity consumption of around 12kWh/day means that there is notionally about 12kWh of heating available; which is a little more than what I’d use for electric, direct heating, were it “free”.

    But it wouldn’t be enough for a household in Germany, with colder and longer “winter” conditions. Despite all that 0.1°C warming that’s happened since 1989.

    Combined heat and power systems may be useful supplements, but the cost of their provision, and their integration into the essential systems must not be ignored.

    Capex (capital expenditure) for a CHP system to suit my needs would be in the region of $15,000; incorporating some electrical storage and inverters for night-time quiet capacity; which’d otherwise buy 60,000kWh off the grid at today’s prices. So capital amortisation is in the vicinity of 8 to 10 years; based on free fuel and free maintenance. Diesel fuel costs around $1.50/litre at the bowser, which includes 10% GST and about 40 cents/litre in fuel excise. So I’ll leave it up to you to figure out the RoI based on no change in the grid price of electricity or the price of fuel, no maintenance costs and no interest payable on capex.

    While the fuel (gas is more popular) and slightely-better bsfc of larger CHP systems make them somewhat more attactive for larger building with several households, the capex is also larger in terms of integration; so it’s not often paid for “out of pocket”, resulting in an interest cost on a loan. What are the interest costs on a €100,000 loan? How much electricity would that buy?

    One can only ignore variables which one has worked out to be insignificant.

    1. DirkH

      Bernd, in Germany there is next to no Air Conditioning in private households, but up to 8 months heating period (depending on the weather; but 6 months are normal), so during that time electricity generation and heat rejection can be combined well. And nowhere in Germany would you build such a plant without an electricity generator, we’re too efficiency-obsessed.

      The number of customers supplied with heat probably doesn’t mean single households, as you use it for city blocks, so the owner of the block with dozens to hundreds of units is the customer.

      1. DirkH

        76 mio kWh in heat divided by 170 customers is 447,058 kWh per customer and year – way to much for a single household… a household might consume somewhere around 5,000 kWh per year for heating.

      2. Bernd Felsche

        Dirk,

        I have lots of family living in Halberstadt, ancestral home since the 19th century. The apple doesn’t fall far from the horse. 🙂

        Of course those 170 customers are the larger blocks of flats and a few smaller ones like around the Domplatz. I don’t know if the city’s housing coop (HaWoGe) is counted as one customer for all of its buildings; or if each connection is counted separately.

        Halberstadtwerke also provide process heat for the manufacture of foodstuffs (e.g. sausages) as well as heat for the railway station, hospital and retirement homes. But the sugar factory, etc are only a fading memory. I don’t know if the new trade complexes in the Sülzegraben partake of district heating. They may do it simply to get cheaper electricity; and they may as well keep their huge warehouse/shops frost-free, seeing that the heat appears to be “free”.

        If the heat were essentially free (or at a fixed charge, depending on “size” of the nominally-heated space, then people may not be bothered with low heating capacity when electricity demand is low. Like in the middle of a winter’s night.

        17km of plumbing is not a lot. The town covers a large area, but much of it is open space. Most older housing blocks are more than 500 metres from the Stadtwerke, with the average probably closer to 1km, as the crow flies. Plumbing, other than that crossing over Wehrstedter Straße at the works, is under the roads which seem to get ripped up most often just before my infrequent visits.

    2. TheJollyGreenMan

      Hi Bernd,

      It looks like you grappling with a problem that VW is trying to address with their small gas engine electric generator and heat exchanger. Before you splash out your cash, check what VW has on offer.

      I drive a VW and and am impressed with that group’s technical excellence.

  5. AlecM

    It looks like the Arctic is just starting to refreeze: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

    Will the early August ice break up from the bad weather reverse as the floes grow back into the detectable range? Only time will tell………