Flagship ZDF German public television, Germany’s equivalent to CBS or BBC, reported on Hurricane Sandy yesterday evening on it famous “heute journal” news show. I was watching it live (which is very rare for me) and I couldn’t believe what I heard.
“Many older people say it reminds them of what happened in 1938. Back then there was the Long Island Express Storm. It claimed 800 million lives on the east coast. This time we will probably also not go without deaths.”
Imagine that. 800 million people on the east coast of a country that at the time had well under 200 million inhabitants.
Did you notice how anchorman Klaus Kleber on the line back in Germany tried to stop him…”how many!…”? Of course, it was a slip-up of gaffe proportions. But notice how when they slip up, it’s an “honest mistake – can happen to anyone!” But when someone else does it, it’s sure proof of incompetence.
Just imagine if Mitt Romney had said it. ZDF would be the first to replay it again and again and again, telling viewers that he just isn’t bright enough to be the President.
Maybe Prömpers was swaying because had been boozing it up and not because of the wind. I don’t know what would cause a reporter of a broadcaster as enlightened as ZDF to make such a dumb mistake.
To be fair, an hour later in the Phoenix broadcast he corrected the figure to “800” lives.
Phoenix invited meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt as an expert. Brandt is co-managing director of donnerwetter.de. He was asked by the Phoenix news achorman if we should expect more and bigger storms due to global warming.
I haven’t yet been able to find a clip of that particluar segment, so I have to rely on my memory for his answer.
When asked about the global warming-storm link, Brandt said that by looking back at the global data available over the last decades, there’s “no indication or evidence showing there’s been an increase in storm activity. The data don’t show it.” He added: “Luckily we don’t need to worry much about increasing storms in the future”.
No surprise here. This morning I see at Climate Depot that a number of other experts are also claiming there is no detectable link. But don’t take our word for it. Look at the data yourself:
Global accumulated cyclone energy has fallen over the last 20 years. Chart source: policlimate.com.
It used to be that weather extremes were “proof of man-made warming”. But because that argument didn’t seem to sway anyone, the warmists have taken it a level higher: now even the storm’s path is proof. This is how desperate they’ve become. Thirty years ago, such people would have been committed to a nuthouse.
Normally nor’easters more or less follow a path parallel to the East Coast. But this time Sandy took a sharp turn westwards into New Jersey before heading north again. If Sandy had followed the usual path, it would have left the East Coast pretty much unscathed and the storm would have been considered “normal” and gone by more or less unnoticed; everyone would have yawned.
But Sandy made a jog to the west, and now the warmist bedwetting media jackasses are freaking out seriously, hailing it as irrefutable proof of man-made climate change, dubbing it a “mega-storm“, “superstorm“, “monsterstorm“, … a “Frankenstorm“!
All because of a jog in its path.
The German leftist TAZ even tries to add Biblical proportions to it, writing:
With regards to the emergency, the Pope has called for solidarity and a readiness to aid.”
The warmists are seriously grasping at any straw. The barometer has gotten that low for them.
As you will all recall, the Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore and the IPCC in 2007. IPCC scientists, such as Drs. Michael E. Mann and Kevin Trenberth, are therefore “laureates”, at least that’s what some of the world’s leading climate authorities claim.
Record snow and cold Arctic air have blasted across Central Europe this weekend. FOCUS magazine here for example writes that up to 15 cm of snow blanketed parts of Germany, wreaking havoc on travel. Hat tip DirkH.
Just a week ago, Europeans were basking in near summer-like temperatures. But over the course of one week, the mercury plummeted 20°C. “That happens probably about every 30 to 40 years,“ says meteorologist Christoph Hartmann of the German Weather Service (DWD). “That happens maybe once or twice in a lifetime.”
Focus writes that for many locations “it was the first measured October snowfall”.
German public television: “Proof of rapid climate change!”
So what is to blame for the early winter outbreak this year? “Global warming,” says the German ZDF public television news anchor Claus Kleber, see here. He says:
“It’s nothing dramatic, that is until you ask the climate scientists. They say it is precisely because of global warming. When the ice at the North Pole melts away, then it doesn’t simply mean that it is going to get warmer in Europe. The relationships in climate are more complicated than that. According to the models, the rapid temperature drop of last few days is proof that our climate is rapidly changing.”
This is just stupid propaganda from charlatans, which thankfully only a few idiot ZDF listeners will believe. Most Germans are laughing at this rubbish.
So what could possibly be the source of this utter nonsense, you may ask? Answer: That source is IPCC scientist Prof. Mojib Latif of the GEOMAR Institute in Kiel (see video link above).
Now, the following video (in German) tells you everything you need to know about Latif.
The professor has one big problem: he has a huge habit of saying anything to seize the moment. As a result he has a rap sheet of public statements that directly contradict each other. He’s not truthful.
He says it’s getting warmer, then he says it’s getting cooler. He said we’d never see snowy winters again, now he says we’ll see more of them. He says natural cycles play a major role, and then turns around and says they don’t. Is this guy hopelessly confused or what!
Oct 17, 1990
“The global temperature can rise 3-4°C by the middle of the next century.”
“For the next 20 years, we believe it is going to get colder.”
“Winters with strong frost and snow like those we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”
Jan 21, 2006
“We are now causing an enormous warming for the next 100 years.”
Mar 1, 2007
“Today we can clearly show that global warming is global. Today we can clearly prove that ice and snow are dramatically reducing. And we can prove that CO2 increases come from burning fossil fuels, i.e. is caused by man.”
Jan 9, 2008
“If we keep on as we are, then in 50 or 100 years we will see a climate warming that man has never seen before.”
Nov 23, 2009
“No doubt there’s been a pause in global warming.”
Dec 2, 2009
On why it hasn’t warmed in 10 years: “We’ve been observing over the last few years that the temperatures in the equatorial East Pacific and also in the region of the southern ocean is cooling, and that is countering global warming. […] We haven’t taken natural fluctuations enough into account.”
Feb 9, 2010
“There are natural fluctuations at play. We believe that over the next years there is a natural fluctuation that will brake the warming, and for that reason we will see no further warming.”
Oct 22, 2011
Overall climate change is leading to more frequent extreme events. Extremes with respect to temperatures. That means in Germany we will get temperatures well over 40°C and at times almost 50°C. We will get extremely hot nights. We will get droughts that will be interrupted by horrendous rains…”
Feb 13, 2012 hatchet job
On Vahrenholt’s book / role of natural cycles: “I haven’t read the book. I’ve seen excerpts. It’s science from a nut-house. It’s pseudo-science, a collection of banalities, or wild speculation. It’s got nothing to do with science.”
Oct 27, 2012
Global warming causes the ice to melt. This means we have a huge heating area. And this heating causes the global wind system to disrupt. And thus high pressure systems form to the west. Lows form to the north and that leads to cold Arctic air getting pumped down.”
There you have it. The flip-flopping climate scientist in chief who will say anything to get into the spotlight.
But, behind the scenes, a lot of quiet airbrushing of the record seems to be going on. Two days ago, his Penn State bio said he had been “co-awarded” the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, now merely that he “contributed… to the award” (whatever that means). Over at Wikipedia, they’re arguing over ever more unwieldy rewrites. Editing an inaccurate legal complaint is trickier but by now someone may have snuck into the DC court clerk’s office with a gallon of White-Out and amended “defamation of a Nobel prize recipient” to “defamation of a man who received one of two thousand photocopies of a commemorative thank-you certificate run off at the IPCC branch of Kinko’s”.
Read the whole story at the above mentioned link. Personally I like the title of the story :).
For European readers who may not know, Kinko’s is a famous chain of copy shops in the USA and “White-Out” in Germany is known as Tippex.
This year’s Elevate Festival is now taking place in Graz, Austria from (24 – 28 October) and features a program of discussions, lectures and screenings designed to bring attention to social, environmental and political issues.
Among this year’s participants: eco-genocide attorney Polly Higgins (UK), Jacob Appelbaum (US), Occupy Wall Street (US), Mark Stevenson (UK), and many more. There was also a video message by Noam Chomsky. Needless to say, this pow-wow is way out in the fringes.
In a piece titled Elevate 2012 Opens With End Of World Mood, the ORF writes that “the world looks bad, real bad, also without its apocalyptic crackpots” who believe the Earth has got less than 2 more months to go, and that “the situation is hopeless”.
Why all the doom and gloom from this group of “enlightened progressive thinkers”. Well in Europe being convinced the end of the planet is imminent is enlightened and progressive thinking.
The ORF writes:
The emotional downer was delivered by superstar Noam Chomsky. Via video he reported on what he reads daily in the newspaper. And that is worrisome. The polar ice caps are melting, climate change is being denied by a few people, but is still unstoppable. He estimates the chances of surviving are scant.
Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf did not refute these bleak outlooks. Concerning all the ‘It’s not all that bad”-studies’, he thinks the media reporting comes down to about 5 seriously senseless studies. Again and again they are gladly financed by the coal lobby.”
Such stunning progressive thinking, wouldn’t you say? RealClimate science now joins Occupy Wall Street and Noam Chomsky.
Rahmstorf was then followed by an equally hopelessly kooky activist, British “attorney for the planet” Polly Higgins, who, according to ORF, “has the aim of getting the UN to recognize eco-genocide as a “crime against Peace”.
The ORF writes:
The opponents are ultimately large corporations and a not so small number of governments. (…) By 2020 Higgins wants to end the eco-genocide and calls for everyone to join in.”
Dear opposing governments (85% of all countries), skeptics and non-alarmists, get ready to be lynched in a few years time should these fringe radicals get their way.
It seems the more Dr. Michael E. Mann opens his mouth, the more he makes himself look like a total jackass. To make things worse, even his own lawyer somehow convinced him to file a baseless lawsuit, and so will end up raking in poor Mike’s money. Today the affair has become a comedy that has the audience rolling on the floor with laughter.
In the latest development, in what appears to be peculiar attempt to give himself gravitas, the insecure Dr. Mann claimed in his suit that he had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his contribution as an IPCC scientist, when the Nobel Committee awarded the prize to the IPCC and Al Gore in 2007.
That claim is false. Just how did he try to pull it off? Easy: he used Mike’s Nobel Trick. It goes as follows:
1) Take the diploma awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007.
2. Next, simply splice on the data you want:
3. And presto! Mike’s Nobel Trick produces a genuine looking Nobel Peace Prize for your own personal use!
With it you’ll be respected, be able to influence policymakers, and feel really important.
Just be sure to hide it. If anyone asks to see the original, just tell them you lost it, or that it’s available only to other Nobel prize winners, or that it’s not subject to the FOIA, or that you don’t have permission to share it.
By now we have to start feeling sorry for the poor guy. Disgraced and humiliated again.
The dead silence we’ve seen on the climate issue during the 2012 Presidential campaign is getting a strong reaction in Germany. Today I’m presenting 2 short views on this. One from a German skeptic, and one from a devout treehugger/climate crisis believer.
At his DIE WELT site, veteran journalist Ulli Kulke writes a piece titled: Al Gore is used up. In it he states that climate change as an issue is rapidly losing importance internationally.
Al Gore tweeted and tweeted last Monday evening, but it didn’t help. His agitated electronic pulses went unheard in the last TV debate…”
Not only is the issue completely off the radar in the United States, Kulke tells us, it is also now being increasingly challenged in Great Britain, and even the Germans are losing their angst of climate change.
Excerpts of what Kulke writes:
The complete absence of attention to climate change is new in the recent history in the USA since 1988, when James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) of NASA sounded the huge alarms in Congress and thus drew prestige, attention and state funding.
The air is gone from the issue because of the never-ending signals of the coming end of the world […] are no longer of any interest for voters.
Alarmism internationally, at least for now, appears to have been braked. Also here the German Academy of Technical Sciences (Acatech) recently presented a position paper on the topic. Its tenor: Climate change would not pose a problem that could not be handled by us. Just a few years ago that would have been an unthinkable statement.”
In summary in Kulke’s view, climate change has become a tiresome broken record among the public and people are far more concerned about jobs, the economy and the financial crisis.
Devout treehugger (and ally of US leftists) Arne Jungjohann at his alarmist website “Climate of Justice is upset about the silence over climate change during this campaign and presents a very plausible explanation.
Just 4 years ago, Obama was presenting himself as a huge proponent of renewable energies and promised to wean the USA off coal. Jungjohann poses and answers the question:
So why is there suddenly all this dead silence on the issue of climate change this election campaign?
Climate change as an issue is silent because it is not on the agenda in swing states. The election is not decided in New York or California, rather it is decided in states like Colorado and Ohio. Because of the particularities of the election system, Ohio has a high chance of tipping the scales. And Ohio gets 78% of its electric power from coal – That’s why Obama is now trying to appear as the better coal politician.”
We all know the Obama will say anything to get elected. So now is a good time to remind voters once more where Obama really stands on the issue:
“Under my plan, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket.” Hardly what Ohio voters want to hear.
This year Obama can’t afford to be honest about it.
Tradeshows are important business events for all branches of industry. The mood at a trade show is often a good barometer of how business is doing in a particular branch.
Solar cemetery? The solar boom dies. (Photo source: US Government)
If times are tough, then one can expect to hear a bit of grumbling from those exhibiting at the trade show, but that’s about it. So when a trade show is cancelled altogether just weeks before it is scheduled to begin, then you know things must be really bad.
This is preceisely what has just happened in the solar industry. Things for the “energy of the future”, solar energy, have gotten so bad that a major tradeshow, Intersolar China 2012, has just been cancelled. The tradeshow had been scheduled to take place from December 12 to 14 at the China Convention Center in Beijing. Now, according to www.pv-magazine.com, the event has been postponed until an unspecified date in 2013. PV magazine cites “difficult market conditions”.
With “difficult market conditions they are likely talking about the tsunami of insolvencies that has swept over the global solar business. A slew of large solar companies likely have cancelled their participation and so many of the exhibition stands would be empty. This is a major embarrassment for proponents of solar energy.
Other German media outlets are now reporting on the Interworld China debacle. Read here, here and here.
PV magazine writes:
Intersolar China opened its doors for the first time just last December in Beijing. Solar Promotion International’s first Chinese tradeshow got off to a slow start, with just 135 of an expected 250 exhibitors showing up. Top-tier solar panel manufacturers like Yingli, Suntech and JA Solar also stood out by not being present at the show.”
Even Siemens Corporation unloads its solar business
Earlier this week, engineering giant Siemens Corporation announced it’s bailing out of the solar biz as well. CO2 Handel writes:
Intersolar first began 20 years ago in Freiburg [Germany] and saw steady growth. […] Over the past several months a number of German manufacturers, among them former market leader Q-Cells, have declared insolvency. On Monday Siemens Corporation announced it would sell its solar business because it had failed to fulfil expectations.”
How many billions in stimulus packages were pumped in to prop up this industry? Now the bubble has popped and consumers are left with higher electric rates and a solar rust belt. In the meantime former solar executives are likely retired and living high on the hog, relaxing on diesel-fuel powered yachts – paid for by “stimulus” dollars.
This has got to be one of the biggest scams of all time.
The last of the 2012 presidential debates is now in the history books; the German media react. Needless to say the German media are heavily biased towards Obama, and just Obama showing up is enough to declare him the winner.
And they all declared him the winner today. Yet, Germany’s mainstream media is filled throughout with disappointment. It’s obvious that Obama failed to get the result he badly needed.
What was once thought to be in the bag, is now needlessly up for grabs. Worse, Germany’s media sense the momentum is now behind Romney. They are nervous and filled with a growing sense of despair. Obama probably has blown what just a few weeks ago looked to be a shoe-in.
Tagesspiegel: The candidates switched roles – Romney looked like the president.
Obama went on the attack, Romney played the role of president. Calm, resolute and knowledgeable, Mitt Romney maneuvered Barack Obama into a role switch. The last TV debate hardly changed the dynamics of the campaign – Romney profits from this.”
Online Spiegel story is titled “Obama’s worthless victory” and writes that his “clear victory” in the third debate “will not move him ahead”. Spiegel observes:
Obama dominated – but Romney neutralized him. […] Mitt Romney in no way lost this foreign policy debate, which also greatly focused on economic policy; He is in a way the second winner.”
The online Die Welt carried the title: “Romney’s successful interview for Commander-in-Chief”. It writes:
The president was clearly stronger in the debate, he controlled the tempo and won on points. But the challenger was not knocked out in the test of strength with the Democrat, who had been able to gather stature as a statesman during his almost 4 years in office. Romney knew how to present himself as a moderate candidate for the White House…”.
Obama set the tone, but looked less strong when his challenger deviated from foreign policy and steered the debate into domestic policy and listed the negative economic data.”
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung(FAZ)
The FAZ makes the observation that Romney used the debate to distance himself from George W. Bush, and was not interested in taking on Obama.
On this evening, Romney was not looking to take on Obama, rather he was sort of shadow-boxing against another president: George W. Bush.”
Overall, the German media concludes Romney skillfully used the debate to maneuver to the center to collect the undecided votes, a tactic the media believe (and fear) he was successful at.
As far as climate change being a topic? Not once was Al Gore’s “greatest challenge for our species” mentioned in any of the 4 debates. Obviously it’s a very dead issue.
Germany’s energy feed-in act forces power companies to buy up green electricity from wind and solar producers at exhorbitant prices and guarantees the green energy producers fat profits.
Windparks are paid even power that doesn’t get delivered. (Photo by: Philip May. GNU-Lizenz für freie Dokumentation,)
But what happens when the sun shines and the wind blows too much, and the power companies don’t need the power?
Answer: the power companies ask the green producers to stop production. But now comes the hitch: If the power companies don’t need the power, German law still requires the power companies to pay green producers for the energy that they would have produced had they not been asked to shut down. Therefore solar panel and windfarm operators get money whether they produce or not. No risks!
One example, according to leading German daily Bild here, is a windfarm operated by Green Party activist Reinhard Christiansen (58). The “Bürgerwindpark” (People’s Windpark), which was built 12 years ago for €8.5 million, at times produces more energy than E.ON power company actually needs, and thus often gets asked to shut down. However, E.ON must pay for the ungenerated power.
The result? Consumers have to pay for the electricity that never gets delivered, let alone consumed! So far Christiansen has hauled in 2.5 million euros ($3 million) for “phantom electric power”.
Bild quotes Christiansen:
We can sell a lot more power than what the power company is able to accept.“
The ‘People’s Windpark’ pulled in 2.5 million euros for compensation for power that could have been generated but could not be used because of a lack of grid capacity.”
Bild writes that this is no isolated incident and that Germany’s Feed-In Act has led to a flurry of bizarre incidences where millions get paid out for “phantom electric power”.
In 2010, 10.2 million euros were paid out, and the trend is exploding upwards. Bild quotes a confidential internal government document:
For a midsize windpark, amounts in the neighborhood of well over 100 million euros can be reached quickly.“
In the end the crazy thing is that it’s again the consumers who wind up paying for power that never gets used.”
In Germany, it is not uncommon for the mayor and city officials to get in on the profiteering, often pushing windfarm projects through against the stiff resistance of local citizens. It’s a business fraught with corruption and shady deals. Welcome to Germany’s Energiewende (energy transformation) where a few are laughing their way to the bank, and the rest are being taken to the cleaners.
Many of you by now are aware of the notorious, creepy 3.5-minute video of NYU modern-eugenics-nutjob S. Matthew Liao made by a Huffington Post correspondent, see below. H/t: Tom Nelson.
In the video, the psychopathic professor resurrects the darkest science of our past and proposes a series of methods for altering humans so that they fulfil the green master standards and plan. This “human engineering” is all about an elite group of humans viewing the rest as inferior, and eliminating the inferior by fundamentally altering them.
This modern eugenicist claims “people are not thinking correctly” and that we should consider giving the inferior ones oxytocin “to make them more willing to cooperate” and to “get them to act collectively”. He says we also should give people Ritalin “to better control the population” and to “screen for embryos using a genetic diagnosis” so that only small humans get selected. Liao proposes hormone treatments for children in order to stunt their growth and keep them small. He also suggests drugging people to make them allergic to meat.
At the end he says it’s no big deal – we already have the technology to do this, so “it’s not far-fetched”.
He constantly uses phrases like: “we could” or “one possibility is…” or “we can try to…” or “another thing we could do is…”. This is the language of experimentation, used by mad scientists getting set to conduct ghoulish experiments.
Liao insists that all of this is innocent, and of course would be voluntary – God forbid it has anything to do with Nazi-type practices.
What a complete menace. This twisted, five-and-dime professor obviously has never picked up a history book in his life. Ideas to rescue the planet always begin with good intentions. But what happens if people don’t volunteer enough? I guess we could just double the dose of oxytocin until the population does “cooperate”.
Which kid is going to volunteer to be the class shorty? Liao is a borderline psychopath, I fear.
Just watching Liao makes me sick and disgusted. But that’s just me. Liao probably has the full support of his university and I’m sure a good number of “climate scientists” agree with him. They’re probably already getting ready to claim there’s a consensus that this “science” would work and that it’s for our own good.
Should it surprise us that green nutjobs are losing it and are now spending more and more time, it seems, contemplating “final solutions”? A little background information on the roots of the green movement tells us where they lie. Read here, here and here to start.
I can only hope that Prof Liao is not running the local water utility.
The 15-day weather simulations are beginning to converge and are indicating that a huge mass of polar air is about to sweep across Europe by the end of next week and early November. See the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forecast model here at German meteorological site wetter.24
The various forecast models have been in increasing agreement over the last days on that a blast of polar air sweeping over Europe will develop over the course of next week. Foremost there is still uncertainty over when it will reach us in Germany.”
According to the ECMWF the cold likely will begin to grip northern Germany and Poland on Thursday. Scandinavia will be hit especially hard, with temperatures plummeting to under -10°C in some regions. Wetter.24 also writes:
The timing is also not so certain, but the probability is high that on Sunday of the coming week all of Germany will be under the influence of really cold air.
German insurance companies stand accused of putting the wind up American policy holders and profiteering from climate change scare stories based on their own quasi-scientific reports Der Spiegel reported on Thursday.
[…] scientists are furious, saying the insurance company has no proof to support the claim. “Most [of the study] doesn’t make sense, and it contradicts observations,” atmosphere researcher Clifford Mass from University of Washington in Seattle told the magazine.
According to Wikipedia, last year Munich RE equity amounted to €23.0 billion. The group’s premium income for the year (gross premiums written) was €45.5 billion, with its consolidated profit amounting to €2.430 billion. In February 2010, U.S. investor Warren Buffett became Munich Re’s largest single shareholder with 10.2 percent of the company.
Munich RE even approved using the WTC attack to spread climate fear
Just look at the following video (in German) at the 5:20 mark. Munich RE managing director Thomas Loster uses terror attacks to promote climate fear among schoolchildren:
I think it’s okay for one to take what is impossible and to imagine it. As is the case with the World Trade Center attack, one has to think of the unthinkable in order to understand the world.”
One has to think of the unthinkable to scare people into paying higher premiums. Once again the little guy gets the shaft.
We know that Big Insurance is drooling over the fat profits to be made from jacked up premiums that policyholders are being asked to cough up because of “increasing weather-related extremes.” Spiegel introduces its piece with:
The Münchener Rückversicherung (Munich RE) claims to have found the first proof that man-made climate change is triggering more and more weather catastrophes in North America. Scientists are outraged.”
Here the scientists are not outraged about the man-made weather catastrophes. They are outraged by the outrageous claims now being made by reinsurers like Munich RE, which underwrites insurance companies against extreme payouts for weather-related damages. The Munich RE is now telling its clients worldwide that it has found the “first footprint” of man-made climate change in North America.
The Munich RE is convinced that it has enough data to conclude that the frequency of weather extremes has increased in North America, a market where it collects half of its premiums. Its press release claims:
Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America. The study shows a nearly quintupled number of weather-related loss events in North America for the past three decades, compared with an increase factor of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe and 1.5 in South America.”
Munich RE director of geo-research Peter Hoppe adds: “Such a chain of evidence for the impact of climate change is unprecedented.”
That means profits – if the policyholders believe it. Spiegel quotes Munich RE board of directors member Peter Röder:
With today’s premiums against weather catastrophes in the USA we are “really satisfied,” explained Röder at a press conference in Munich. ‘The expectations for more violent storms have already been factored in.'”
And now the money is flooding into Munich Re coffers and those of other reiensurers, like a tsunami. So what do scientists say about the (money making) claims made by reinsurers like Munich RE? Spiegel quotes Roger Pielke Jr., who wonders (paraphrased): “Where’s the evidence?”
Atmospheric scientist Clifford Mass of the University of Washington in Seattle adds:
Most of the claims make no sense and contradict observations.”
Indeed observations show that there has not been any increase in extreme weather. Spiegel cites a tornado study by Pielke that is slated to appear soon in “Environmental Hazards”. The study shows that tornadoes since 1950 have actually reduced in their destructive power.
Spiegel calls the claims made by the reinsurers, particularly Munich RE, “suspicious”, quoting Pielke and Mass:
‘When the Munich RE thinks it has discovered the first footprint, then it should submit its study to a scientific magazine for review’. Publicizing an alleged discovery via press release “is suspicious”. Atmospheric scientist Mass agrees: “Climate change is serious, but hyping the trend and distorting it is irresponsible.”
Pielke reminds us that the data tells us the opposite; droughts in the USA have gotten shorter and less severe over the last decades.
Bojanowski sums up by quoting the late Austrian climate researcher, Reinhard Böhm: “With this short term gag, which is getting light attention, we should not bury the credibility of science.”
Surely most readers here can remember the furious reaction of environmentalists, media, and alarmist scientists when George W. Bush refused to sign on to the Kyoto Treaty in 2001. He was immediately labelled the dumbest man on the planet when it came to climate science for that refusal. Later, a good part of Al Gore’s AIT was aimed at ridiculing him and marginalizing skeptics as flat-earthers. The Earth was warming and the consensus was overwhelming, they told us.
George W. Bush told us there was no scientific consensus way back in 2000. (Photo by Shawn Clark of Lazyeights Photography, GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later, Wikipedia)
So we ask: just who are the real flat-earthers today?
‘Some of the scientists, I believe, haven’t they been changing their opinion a little bit on global warming? There’s a lot of differing opinions and before we react I think it’s best to have the full accounting, full understanding of what’s taking place.’
Twelve years later, his statement actually seems quite true. While recent scientific studies have been warning people that the Arctic is melting at record-breaking speed, a new report by the UK Met office dampens the predictions of environmental doom by claiming that global warming, in fact, stopped 16 years ago.”
The Khaleej Times also writes that 2010 being declared the hottest year is “a claim that is quite obviously refuted by the findings of the report”. Moreover, the Khaleej Times states what is today becoming increasingly obvious and it is what George Bush tried to tell us 12 years ago: there is no agreement on global warming science. The consensus is dead. In fact, it was never alive. The Khaleej Times writes (my emphasis):
…global warming is a sphere that has witnessed very little action by the international community. And that’s partially because there’s little agreement over the scope and seriousness of the phenomenon that we are facing.“
When it comes to global warming science, the Khaleej Times concedes: George Bush was right. Gore, the media and “climate scientists” were dead wrong.
Although the silence that has spread over the mainstream media and “climate community” has been deafening, skeptic blogs on the other hand have been stepping in earnestly to inform the public on what the climate is really doing. The blogosphere has been ablaze over the last few days.
In Germany the media has been dead silent on the news that warming has stopped. There’s a simple reason for that: In Europe, good news is bad news.
In the IPCC climate models, there’s only one direction projected for the future development of global temperature, namely a steady and strong increase. Also Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shared this conviction and declared just last year in November 2011 in the Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung:
“Global warming is galloping ahead unhindered. The temperature is increasing at a rate of between 0.16 and 0.18 °C per decade.”
However, the quality of projections have to be tested using the hard data of reality. One of the most important datasets comes from the Hadley Centre of the British Met Office in cooperation with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. While the Hadley Centre is responsible for the sea surface temperatures, the CRU takes care of the land temperatures. Together they form the so-called HadCRUT dataset.
Recently the newest HadCRUT numbers were released; they extended up to August 2012. It turns out that everything that had been suspected was confirmed: The global temperature hasn’t risen in 16 years (see Figure below). This is a completely unexpected development when one considers how all the boldly confident forecasts from the IPCC predicted more warming.
The release of the new HadCRUT figures occurred almost in absolute silence, without any media buzz whatsoever. With some hesitation the British Daily Mail took up the topic and reported on the extension of the unhoped for temperature plateau. The report also questioned Phil Jones, the current Director of the Climate Research Unit. He confirmed the plateau and even considered it possible that it will extend even more, but only if the an El Nino does not form in the Pacific over the coming months. An El Nino would cause global temperatures to spike upwards for a short time. On the deviation between the the IPCC models and measured temperatures, Jones says:
We don’t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural variability is doing.”
In 2009. Phil Jones had informed a colleague by e-mail that he would be concerned about the quality of the IPCC climate models if the stop in warming continued beyond 15 years. That e-mail was made public by the Climategate scandal, when an unknown hacker had breached the servers of the Climate Research Unit. The 15-year period named in that e-mail has in the meantime been surpassed. One really has got to wonder that Jones has suddenly extended his personal threshold of pain to 20 years, and now claims that phases of no warming 15-16 years long had always been expected.
Climate scientist Judith Curry, Director of Earth and Climate Sciences at Georgia Tech University, takes a more sober view. In the same Daily Mail article she says:
The new data confirms the existence of a pause in global warming. […] Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability [the impact of factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect. It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance.”
Figure 1: HadCRUT temperature data 1997 until today (red curve). The trend line (green) shows no significant increase. This temperature plateau has now been going on over 16 years. Source: Real Science based on woodfortrees.
Also Stefan Rahmstorf now appears to be worried and is desperately hoping for a trend change. Finally for 2013 he sees a new temperature record in the making; one that will hopefully break the old 1998 record. In the magazine Spektrum der Wissenschaft(also see New Scientist) Rahmstorf wrote in September 2012:
In the meantime the solar cycle is again on the rebound, and it is only a question of time before the next El Niño episode kicks in. The US NOAA has even forecast that this will occur this fall. Both of these factors together with the continuing rising greenhouse gases make it indeed probable that already 2013 could be a record year. Maybe this will mute the unscientific voices who again and again falsely claim that global warming is over.”
However, clicking on Rahmstorf’s El Nino link brings his readers back to sobriety. The acute NOAA El Nino warning has since been withdrawn and now more or less “neutral conditions” are being forecast for the northern winter of 2012/2013 in the tropical Pacific (click on the “weekly ENSO-Update”; see Lubos Motl at his “the reference frame“ blog).
It’s also interesting that Rahmstorf suddenly is now increasingly emphasizing the sun, though the sun matters more for the long-term over years to decades. Speaking of solar activity, things with the upcoming solar maximum in the Spring of 2013 don’t appear to be cooperating either. The value will be considerably below the past cycles, which will tend to have more of a cooling effect than one of warming. Moreover some experts are already warning that the solar maximum of the current cycle may already be behind us(see our blog article: “Have we already missed the maximum of the current solar cycle? Asymmetry of the sun signals an extended period of low activity“). It’s quite possible that hard times lie ahead for climate science…