Michael Krüger at German blogsite Readers Edition uncovers how one of Stefan Rahmstorf’s scariest prophecies of climate doom has just been RESOUNDINGLY refuted by hard data from a new European study.
Gulf Stream is not weakening, a new European study says. Photo source: NASA (public domain image).
In 1999 German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf was awarded the one-million dollar “prize of the century” by the American James S McDonnel Foundation for his work on calculating climate change through changes in the Golf Stream. Rahmstorf had postulated that already a really small warming of global temperatures leads to an altered flow or even a tipping of the ‘Gulf Stream climate machine’.”
Rahmstorf was also quoted in the year 1999 by the Süddeutsche Zeitung:
The Atlantic current will likely weaken noticeably in the coming decades – here the computer models of various institutes broadly agree on this.”
Summa summarum one can conclude from these very broadly supported estimations that the risk of a tipping of the North Atlantic stream is being increasingly pessimistically assessed among experts. That also corresponds to my assessment, which also has grown more pessimistic over the course of my work on the subject. […] According to the latest, the risk appears to be greater than what we saw 10 or 15 years ago.”
Let’s recall that at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Rahmstorf’s employer, the only good science there are prophecies of the end-of-world. Anything else is considered heresy at the PIK. If it’s not laced with doom and gloom, then it isn’t acceptable science.
So how is the Gulf Stream really doing? Is it weakening noticeably as Rahmstorf and a consensus of computer models prophesied 13 years ago?
A recent report on ARD German public television (see clip below) now tells us the answer: No. No. No.
Youtube excerpt of the ARD public television Tagesschau and Tagesthemen news from 24 September 2012.
The ARD news anchor-lady tells her many viewers that the Gulf Stream “remains stable” and “has not weakened”, citing a team of scientists from 9 European countries. “New studies show that it is going strong, and is unaffected by climate change.” At the 1:22 mark according to Detlef Quadfasel of the University of Hamburg:
It shows that it remains stable and that we will have a relatively weak warming in Europe and in the North Atlantic and that no catastrophe will occur in the next 10 years.”
The news reporter then adds:
That’s a small sensation! And a reaction to a false warning from 7 years ago when a new cold period had been prophesied. Back then, measurements had been taken from only a few locations.”
The reporter then adds that over the last 5 years, measurements have been taken from 3000 measuring probes and they show no signs of any weakening.
There you have it. Obviously Prof. Rahmstorf (and the computer models from the other institutes he cites) were FOS with their prophecy of a weakening Gulf Stream and climate tipping point. Now it’s clear they had no idea what they were talking about.
Do you think Prof. Rahmstorf will come out and admit his error? Don’t hold your breath. The PIK sees itself as the Vatican of climate science, i.e. as infallible.
I challenge anyone to find one piece of good climate news coming out of the PIK. You won’t find any. Good news there gets strung up every morning at sun-up and never sees the light of day.
When is the government going to wake up and close that science nuthouse down?
PS: Stefan Rahmstorf is also one of the outlier scientists claiming sea levels will rise more than a meter this century, even though all the tide gauges show no acceleration at all. Do we see a trend when it comes to Rahmstorfian science?