My Latest Prediction Shows Romney Barely Squeaking By 270 – 268…Every Vote Will Count!

A couple of days back I put forth my more optimistic projection: Romney 310; Obama 228. See foxnews.2012-race-predictions.

This morning I took one final look and applied a more worst-case scenario. We can’t expect most toss-up states to go to Romney. So here’s my more worst-case scenario prediction, swing states in bold. With a little push, Romney could very well end up near 290 or more.

If we get early reports that things are going well for Romney in PA, then it’s over for Obama. But if PA looks blue, then it will be a long, possibly nightmarish night, followed by a long miserable November full of melancholy. :(

If you think you can sway me with a state or 2, please try.

States Romney wins: Total 270

Texas 38
Florida 29
Oiho Ohio 18
North Carolina 15
New Hampshire 4
Virginia 13
Georgia 15
Alaska 3
Wyoming 3
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Montana 3
Mississippi 6
Idaho 4
West Virginia 5
Nebraska 5
Utah 6
Arkansas 6
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
South Carolina 9
Alabama 9
Indiana 11
Tennessee 11
Arizona 11
Missouri 10

States Obama wins: Total 268

California 55
New York 29
Michigan 16
Nevada 6
Oregon 7
Iowa 6
Pennsylvania 20
Colorado 9
Wisconsin 10
Hawaii 4
Vermont 3
DC 3
Delaware 3
Rhode Island 4
Maine 4
Connecticut 7
New Mexico 5
Illinois 20
Minnesota 10
Maryland 10
New Jersey 14
Washington 12
Massachusetts 11

It’s going to be tight, and so every vote becomes real important. If you live in a swing state, do not squander your chance!

 

21 thoughts on “My Latest Prediction Shows Romney Barely Squeaking By 270 – 268…Every Vote Will Count!”

    1. If that’s true, then it’s over and 4 more years of O. John Boehner says Ohio is going for Romney.

  1. Even if you don’t live in a swing state! If you are a Republican, or a Romney-minded Independent, go vote. Even Oregon is in play if every Romney voter turns out. Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even Michigan, are up for grabs. And I think most of those will, at the end of a loooonnng day, will go for Romney. While you are at it, vote for the Republican Senators! We need every one we can get to keep Harry Reid from jamming up the works.

  2. @Ed Caryl

    I can’t and will never understand, that, there are people who are eligible and capable of voting – who then don’t exercise their moral obligation, after all in the past people sacrificed their lives for just such an opportunity to vote, all men and women must do their honourable duty.

    GET OUT AND VOTE.

    If you don’t vote and you have a vote and did not vote – then you have no right to complain.

    Every vote counts.

    1. This election reminds me of 2004. On election day it looked as if the polls were favoring Kerry very slightly, the German news were reporting “thousands of young people were turning out” and I think CNN even called Florida for Kerry. But in the end Bush emerged as the winner.
      This time, with Obama’s record, it ought to be Romney hands down. But Gallop and Rasmussen show a toss up. Most of the other pollsters are just hacks. The first returns will be interesting. There seems to be a strong GOP turnout and a much less enthused Dem turnout. That’s our source of hope. Anyway, I doubt I’ll be getting much sleep tonight. The results will start coming in early morning here.

    2. All the big GOP guns (Juliani, Rubio, McCain, etc.) and the hundreds of surrogates ought to be in PA and OH dragging people out to the polls.

    1. Thanks for the good link, Dirk. If the polls are all over-estimating Dem turnout, then they are going to be the laughingstocks for a longtime to come – joining the GW scientists.

      1. Axelrod has been lulled into believing Nate Silver’s model. That’s why the Dems never saw it coming.
        “Teach a man to survey and he knows the race for a day. Teach a man to aggregate and there is no race.”
        http://twitchy.com/2012/11/05/nate-silver-parody-account-almost-as-absurd-as-the-real-nate-silver/

        Silver’s NYT blog:
        http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

        He steadfastly predicts 90% prob for Obama. Still time to make a quick buck on intrade.

    2. Let’s pray pay pray…though after God sending Sandy, I’m not on good terms with Him right now.

  3. There were reports of “large crowds” for McCain, and also Bob Dole in 1996. It doesn’t mean much.

  4. Pennsylvania went to Obama, so that pretty much wraps it up.

    Obama has succeeded in fundamentally transforming America.

    Goodnight and RIP America.

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