Ehrlichian Catastrophe-Obsessed Potsdam Climate Institute Claims 12 Times More Heat Records By 2040!

The PIK has issued a press release on another one of its patently alarmist, statistically selective and manipulative studies, BASED ON MODELS, claiming the end of the world is near.  I’m sure this study will be shown to be preposterous in just a matter of days. No matter, the German media can hardly contain itself.

80 percent of observed monthly records would not have occurred without human influence on climate, concludes the authors-team of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Complutense University of Madrid. Monthly temperature extremes have become much more frequent, as measurements from around the world indicate. On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change. In parts of Europe, Africa and southern Asia the number of monthly records has increased even by a factor of ten.

Global warming has increased monthly heat records by a factor of fiveRecord-breaking hot months have become much more frequent. (For full graphic see Fig. 4 in the study) Graphic: PIK       
“The last decade brought unprecedented heat waves; for instance in the US in 2012, in Russia in 2010, in Australia  in 2009, and in Europe in 2003,” lead-author Dim Coumou says. “Heat extremes are causing many deaths, major forest fires, and harvest losses – societies and ecosystems are not adapted to ever new record-breaking temperatures.” The new study relies on 131 years of monthly temperature data for more than 12,000 grid points around the world, provided by NASA. Comprehensive         analysis reveals the increase in records.

The researchers developed a robust statistical model that explains the surge in the number of records to be a consequence of the long-term global warming trend. That surge has been particularly steep over the last 40 years, due to a steep global-warming trend over this period. Superimposed on this long-term rise, the data show the effect of natural variability, with especially high numbers of heat records during years with El Niño events. This natural variability, however, does not explain the overall development of record events, found the researchers.

Natural variability does not explain the overall development of record events

If global warming continues, the study projects that the number of new monthly records will be 12 times as high in 30 years as it would be without climate change. “Now this doesn’t mean there will be 12 times more hot summers in Europe than today – it actually is worse,“ Coumou points out. For the new records set in the 2040s will not just be hot by today’s standards. “To count as new records, they actually have to beat heat records set in the 2020s and 2030s, which will already be hotter than anything we have experienced to date,” explains Coumou. “And this is just the global average – in some continental regions, the increase in new records will be even greater.”

“Statistics alone cannot tell us what the cause of any single heat wave is, but they show a large and systematic increase in the number of heat records due to global warming,” says Stefan  Rahmstorf, a co-author of the study and co-chair of PIK’s research domain Earth System Analysis. “Today, this increase is already so large that by far most monthly heat records are due to climate change. The science is clear that only a small fraction would have occurred naturally.”

The paper unfortunately ignores the siting issues of modern temperature stations, most now located next to airport tramacs and within urban sprawl. The horror scenarios also contradict observed temperature trends and projections of further stgnation or even cooling in the next decade.

All climate models have been exposed as exaggerated

Joe Bastardi shows how observed temperatures over the last 30 years have been below all 38 model projections put out by a variety of “climate institutes.” The consensus of the models has been revealed as being dead wrong. Bold blue dots represent the observed trend:

38 Models_ Joe BastardiObserved temperature trend over the last 30 years now below all 38 model projections. Chart source: Joe Bastardi, twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi photo/1.

And it was just 2 years ago when PIK famously predicted global warming would lead to a cooling of the northern hemisphere. notrickszone.com/2010/11/17/postdam-global-warming-could-cool-temperatures/

 

10 responses to “Ehrlichian Catastrophe-Obsessed Potsdam Climate Institute Claims 12 Times More Heat Records By 2040!”

  1. Mindert Eiting

    I keep repeating it. More extremes is the same as increasing variance of temperatures, precipitation, etc. For the statistical evaluation of variance about ten times as much observations are needed than for the mean. Presently 17 years are needed for showing increasing temperatures at an acceptable error rate. So we need 170 years for the variance. You cannot escape from this statistical fact by using primitive measurements like record breaking events (as used in sports and other popular entertainment).

    1. Mindert Eiting

      About record breaking: record breaking events are severely dependent upon each other by the definition of ‘breaking’. If you want a statistical mess you should use this concept. Moreover, it depends on the arbitrary length of the record considered. If you want call a run of 100 meters in 9 seconds a record breaking event, you have to know whether Adam and Eve did not do it in 8 seconds while leaving the Garden of Eden. It is totally unscientific to talk about record breaking. It belongs to the world of sports and popular weather programs. It’s about hype and emotion. This shows what PIK is doing and that’s not science.

  2. John F. Hultquist

    Your continental colleague, Luboš Motl, wrote on the issue of record temperatures in a post last March. It is a fun read.
    http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/record-temperatures-and-female-fields.html

    There are a few equations in his post but in this case they can be passed over without too much harm. It is required to know the meaning of mean and variance.

  3. Graeme No.3

    In 1900 someone did a linear extrapolation and concluded that by 1930 the level of horse manure in the streets would reach the third floor. It is often held up as an example of the inaccuracy of linear extrapolation.

    Using “adjusted” temperatures designed to show an ever rising rate of heating, the Potsdam Institute then uses exponential extrapolation! A scientific joke.

    To quote Mark Twain; “One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”

    1. John Hasham

      The horse manure hasn’t reached the third floor. But the bull shit level of media, academic radicals and government is well over the top of the roof.

  4. Edward.

    ##Stop press## stop press##Stop press## stop press####Stop press## stop press##

    “Idiot civil servants, write another [not another?!] climate Armageddon [again] doomsday story………….and guess what? Yes: we’re all doomed again!”

    ##Stop press## stop press##Stop press## stop press##

    Quote:

    “On average, there are now five times as many record-breaking hot months worldwide than could be expected without long-term global warming, shows a study now published in Climatic Change.”

    WTF?

    More to the point – whoTF wrote that piece of government generated excreta?

  5. R. de Haan

    We know for a long time now that Pik scientists a and the complete green religion they throw at us is nothing more but an ideology. Today the acknowledgement of this ideology surfaced into the public domain in an article in Trouw, a Dutch newspaper. Please translate with Google: Green thinking is an ideology: http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/12164/Het-groene-geloof/article/detail/3376796/2013/01/14/Milieudeskundige-Groene-denken-is-zeker-een-ideologie.dhtml

    What’s different about this article is the fact that the ackknowledgement doesn’t come from a skeptic but from one of the most prominent Greenies in the Netherlands. One thing is made very clear to me from this article. This is no longer a discussion about who is right and who is wrong about the climate.
    We are dealing with a fascist movement and we are at war.

    1. DirkH

      But that was clear from the moment, in about 1980, when the German anti-nuclear movement was infiltrated and overtaken by Joschka Fischer, Juergen Trittin, Kretschmann and Claudia Roth (et al); all members of K-Gruppen parties that were controlled by the KGB. Since that time all the little green believers just march in lockstep with whatever their leaders demand.

  6. R. de Haan

    Suppose Kretchmann today would make a public statement to abolish capitalism, reducing world population en intriducing a new society based on the so called “ballance economy”where profits are a dirty word and income is a threat to the environment he would be vaporized on the spot. The anti-nuclear movent was a Cold War relict finaced by the KGB. Sometimes people need time to wake up to the reality. As for the environmental movement this is the first time they admit that it is an ideology and because of that we know the time for debate is over.
    It’s them or us.

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