Germany’s catastrophe-obsessed weekly Die Zeit is now claiming that climate models have in fact predicted long temperature stagnation after all. Suddenly, periods of temperature stagnation are showing up in models, climate scientists are discovering.
Last week, I wrote about how a Swiss climate modeller had suddenly discovered temperature stagnations in the models, and tried to claim this showed the model warming scenarios were right on track after all.
Now the catastrophe junkies at Die Zeit news magazine here have joined in. Until just a few months ago, Die Zeit had been telling us just the opposite: things were warming faster than ever!
In its latest article, Die Zeit writes that “climate skeptics are jubilant that the IPCC models are faulty”and that on the other hand Prof. Jochem Marotzke, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and IPCC author, vehemently scorns the skeptics for being so, insisting the climate catastrophe is coming:
“We are completely sure that at the end of the 21st century it’ll be warmer than today. However, the path to that point is simply not a straight line that follows CO2 concentration.”
Die Zeit writes (my emphasis):
Indeed such temperature plateaus have occurred also in the climate models; only the exact time of their occurrence is difficult to predict.”
Die Zeit goes on and explains that the temperature stagnation is caused by “external factors like volcano eruptions” and also”chaotic fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans”, citing La-Niña and El-Niño-events, ocean currents, etc.
For 15 years in a row?
Next Die Zeit quotes Marotzke, who actually contradicts Die Zeit, saying the current stagnation is in fact a mystery:
Also the question of how long the plateau will persist and what happens afterwards cannot be answered at this time.”
Well, why not? The models are supposed to do that. Now you say they can’t. You can’t see what lies ahead for the next few decades? Unbelievable.
If the models had included all the factors, like the WELL-KNOWN solar cycles and the WELL-KNOWN ocean cycles, as Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning did in their book Die kalte Sonne, the models would have at least come up with the current stagnation. Moreover, the IPCC models would have seen that the stagnation would last until 2040. Now they are left standing there desperate for an explanation.
The solar and ocean cycles were known to the modellers years ago, but they were ignored, covered up, and swept out of sight. A reasonable model showing no warming until 2040 was the last thing they wanted the public to see. It would have taken all the alarm out of issue. If there ever was a case for organized scientific fraud and deception, then this is it. THEY KNEW OF THE NATURAL CYCLES YEARS AGO!
Jochem Marotzke and Die Zeit still hope to keep the charade going, insisting that we believe the heat is there – somewhere! Die Zeit writes:
That the surface temperature is currently stagnating does not mean in any case that global warming has taken a break, says Marotzke. To the contrary: The warming is just taking place somewhere else – in the oceans.”
Marotzke and Die Zeit now sound worse than slippery used-car salesmen.
Unfortunately there’s no data to support this – anywhere. Even Die Zeit admits it:
In any case, climate scientists cannot say for sure where the warming really is. ‘The measurement system for this is just not sufficient enough,’ says Marotzke. 3000 buoys have been in use only a few years now, within the scope of the global ocean observation systems (GOOS) – they sink only to a depth of about 2000 meters. Thus it cannot be proven whether the deep ocean is warming strongly or not.”
Die Zeit later in the article winds up admitting that the scientists really don’t have a clue at all as to what’s going on, writing that some scientists blame the current stagnation on aerosols, or “reduced water vapor concentration in the stratosphere”. Consensus is non-existent more than ever.
Marotzke also answers questions on why the IPCC 5AR models failed to foresee the 15-year plateau:
With these long-term climate models, you can’t expect such short-term plateaus to be predicted at the right times.”
Well, not using your kind of science. Die Zeit adds:
You simply don’t throw a climate model into the dustbin just because it fails to preceisely predict the weather in one year.”
That’s true. One only does that when it fails 15 years in a row!
“Many of us are now amazed climate is not linear”
Die Zeit finally tells its readers that the climate system is far from being understood and brings in Prof. Mojib Latif of the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany to answer some questions. Latif, also an IPCC lead-author, has spent 90% of his time over the last years calculating natural climate fluctuations (see, he knew). Die Zeit writes:
In any case, Latif admits that we have underestimated ‘how important it is to communicate the importance of natural climate fluctuations’.”
That’s an understatement. You guys never bothered to put these “important natural fluctuations” in the models. You were too damn obsessed with keeping the level of alarm elevated. This all reeks of intentional deceit.
Die Zeit adds:
The science often simplified things too much and reduced graphics to mean values. That’s why many of us got the impression that climate is always linear – and now are amazed that this does not correspond to reality.”