New Peer-Reviewed Study Shows Climate Trend Reversal In Swiss Alps – Now Cooling Since 2000!

A new study titled Snow variability in the Swiss Alps 1864–2009 appearing in the Journal of Clmatology by Scherrer at al doi: 10.1002/joc.3653 shows a temperature trend reversal has been taking place in the Swiss Alps since 2000.

Switzerland_Aletschhorn_from_Konkordiaplatz

Aletschhorn, Bernese Alps.  Photo credit: Tallin Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

The paper looks at nine Swiss Alpine snow series that cover different altitudes (450–1860 m asl) and go back more than 100 years. In addition the authors analyzed data from 71 stations covering the last 50–80 years to get a more complete picture of Swiss Alpine snow variability.

They analysed data for trend and variability for:
- New snow sums (NSS)
- Maximum new snow (MAXNS)
- Days with snowfall (DWSF)

According to their abstract (my emphasis):

Our results reveal large decadal variability with phases of low and high values for NSS, DWSF and DWSP. For most stations NSS, DWSF and DWSP show the lowest values recorded and unprecedented negative trends in the late 1980s and 1990s. [...]  The fraction of NSS and DWSP in different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) has changed only slightly over the ∼150 year record. Some decreases most likely attributable to temperature changes in the last 50 years are found for spring, especially for NSS at low stations. Both the NSS and DWSP snow indicators show a trend reversal in most recent years (since 2000), especially at low and medium altitudes. This is consistent with the recent ‘plateauing’ (i.e. slight relative decrease) of mean winter temperature in Switzerland and illustrates how important decadal variability is in understanding the trends in key snow indicators.”

The study shows snow and temperature are naturally variable and that temperatures in Switzerland, as is the case globally, are no longer rising, and are now trending downwards.

 

29 responses to “New Peer-Reviewed Study Shows Climate Trend Reversal In Swiss Alps – Now Cooling Since 2000!”

  1. Ed Caryl
  2. New Study: Swiss Alps Cooling Since 2000 | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)

    [...] Full story [...]

  3. JC Smith

    Yes….clearly Switzerland has been cooling. You can tell in pictures of glaciers from Switzerland in 2006 vs 2011:

    http://billmoyers.com/content/vanishing-glaciers-now-and-then/

    Stein Glacier: 2006 vs 2011 (frames 1 &2)
    Eiger Glacier: 2006 vs 2011 (frames 5&6)
    Trift Glacier: 2006 vs 2011 (frames 11 – 14)

    And….just for giggles, you should take a look at the Umiamako Glacier in Greenland in frames 7 & 8. Glaciers from around the world in the mid 2000′s vs 2011. All of them shrinking QUICKY.

    And here’s a look at the ice volume of the Arctic. Yes….it is amazing what a “cooling” (wink..wink) planet has done to the Arctic ice volume over the last 10 years:

    http://jcmooreonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Arctic-Ice-Volume2.jpg

    Ice volume in the Arctic has dropped by 60% just in the last 10 years. Yes….it is amazing what “global cooling” has done to melt the glaciers and ice sheets:)

    1. Ed Caryl

      JC, do you include Greenland as part of the arctic? If yes, then your ice loss figure becomes much less than 1% over the last 100 years.
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/23/on-being-the-wrong-size/

      If no, you are just referring to the Arctic Ocean, then you are cherry-picking one particular summer date last year. Here is a flash for you; the ice re-freezes every winter.

      1. JC Smith

        “..Here is a flash for you; the ice re-freezes every winter.”

        Ed…..You apparently didn’t look at the Arctic sea ice volume chart, so I’ll list the volume since 2002 (note: It was 16.9km3 in 1979). Keep in mind this is the MINIMUM Arctic sea ice VOLUME in late SEPTEMBER of each year:

        2002 10.8 km3; 2003 10.2 km3; 2004 9.9 km3; 2005 9.2 km3; 2006 9.0 km3; 2007 6.5 km3; 2008 7.1 km3; 2009 6.9 km3; 2010 4.4 km3; 2011 4.0 km3; 2012 3.3 km3.

        You see….no cherries. The ice VOLUME has decreased 69% since 2002. It has decreased 80% since 1979. In fact, summer minimum Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 52% just in the last 4 years. So you see, the sea ice is melting at a faster rate over the last 4 years…..but it has been decreasing since 1979 (at least).

        So you want to point out those cherries again? Does the Arctic ice freeze back in the winter? The answer is: Some of it does. But each year….less and less ice re-freezes. Much of the ice “extent” re-freezes in the winter (after all…as one rocket scientist noted….”it’s cold up there”), but each winter, less and less ice re-freezes. Here is the Arctic sea ice volume chart again. Happy cherry picking:)

        http://jcmooreonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Arctic-Ice-Volume2.jpg

    2. DirkH

      Jc, a little elementary physics for you.
      When something has warmed up beyond the point where ice starts melting, and then stops warming further, and starts to cool, IT IS STILL WARM ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO MELT ANY REMAINING ICE.

      Of course, whether a glacier melts or not depends on its height above sea level; so there is always a border above which the ice does not melt.
      We find bronce age villages under the retreating glaciers.

      Did bronce age people invent the SUV?

      1. JC Smith

        So Dirk…..take a look at this chart:

        http://jcmooreonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Arctic-Ice-Volume2.jpg

        So tell me, to put it into YOUR words….”when did it warm up beyond the point where ice starts melting, and then stops warming further”?

        Was it 1979 when there was 16.9 km3 of ice? Was it 1986 when there was only 15.9 km3 of ice? Was it 1992 when there was 14.9 km3? Was it 2001 when there was only 12.2 km3? Was it 2006 when there was only 9.0 km3?

        Or….are you “calling the bottom” in 2012 when there was only 3.3 km3?

        I think you better go drive your SUV and think about this one……:)

        1. DirkH

          In other words, you have not understood what I was saying.

          You quote me with:
          “So tell me, to put it into YOUR words….”when did it warm up beyond the point where ice starts melting, and then stops warming further”?”

          Notice that that is only HALF THE SENTENCE.

          Even for a CO2AGW believer you are pretty thick.

        2. Ed Caryl

          JC, the ice loss is due to dust and soot from Asia, mostly soot due to coal-fired power plants in China.
          http://notrickszone.com/2012/08/27/arctic-ice-loss-temperature-or-soot/
          When China cleans up their soot emissions, the ice will recover. The amount of ice has very little to do with CO2.

        3. Ed Caryl

          JC,
          By the way, those volume numbers are in THOUSANDS of cubic kilometers, and last winter, 2012, the maximum was over 20,000 cubic kilometers. That’s only a 30% reduction from the long term average.

  4. Robin

    Is it possible to find the data time series on the www?

    I would really like to look at the numbers myself. I use a technique that is unsusal amongst people who look at climatge related data.

    1. Ed Caryl

      Check my link above.

  5. BobW in NC

    “The study shows natural snow and temperature are naturally variable and that temperatures in Switzerland, as is the case globally, are no longer rising, and are now trending downwards.”

    “…temperatures…globally…trending downwards…”

    i.e., Be prepared. Be very prepared.

    1. Mindert Eiting

      Be very patient. That AGW building is slowly coming down and the temperatures are helping. After that, could it become a bit warmer, please?

    2. JC Smith

      “The study shows natural snow and temperature are naturally variable and that temperatures in Switzerland, as is the case globally, are no longer rising, and are now trending downwards.”

      WOW. So Bob…..you’re now quoting P. Gosselin and that is your source to be “very afraid.” Heck….I’m now terrified:)

      1. Ed Caryl

        RC, the abstract of the paper says, “Both the NSS and DWSP snow indicators show a trend reversal in most recent years (since 2000), especially at low and medium altitudes. This is consistent with the recent ‘plateauing’ (i.e. slight relative decrease) of mean winter temperature in Switzerland and illustrates how important decadal variability is in understanding the trends in key snow indicators.”

  6. slimething

    In 2007 the U.N. was traveling through Europe telling ski slope operators they needed to find a new line of. Within a week or so later the Swiss Alps had record snow.

    references:
    http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/business/01tourism.html?_r=0
    http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Tourism_set_to_suffer_from_the_climate_change_it_generates_UN_999.html

    Record snow same month after Davos convention:
    http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/archive/Snowiest_start_to_winter_in_55_years.html?cid=6242162

    What a bunch of charlatans these so called climate scientists are.

    1. JC Smith

      I did not know that 2007 was the warmest winter EVER (in 140 years of recordkeeping) in Switzerland. Thanks for pointing that out slimething.

      http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/archive/Winter_in_Switzerland_is_warmest_on_record.html?cid=33748

  7. JC Smith

    Ed…..are you REALLY going to make me do the math for you? Really? And by the way….I KNOW they are in THOUSANDS. It’s on the chart…..and I assumed you knew that.

    And the math stands: The Arctic has lost over 50% of its MINIMUM ICE VOLUME over the last 4 years.

    2008: 7.1 THOUSAND
    2012: 3.3 THOUSAND

    7.1 – 3.3 = 3.8
    3.8/7.1 = 53 %

    Think about that. A 53% decrease in the MINIMUM ICE VOLUME in 4 YEARS.

    And what is even worse, is that this spring is not setting up well, unless you like the Arctic melting away. This is NOT going to be a pretty spring and summer for ice lovers. Maybe the oil and gas folks, and some of the bloggers they fund will enjoy it….but not most people.

    1. Mindert Eiting

      Do you also have the maxima and averages? The math is not that advanced that I cannot do it for my self. BTW, you can block on your keyboard the Caps Lock with a little piece of paper. Cheers.

    2. Ed Caryl

      JC,
      No, I don’t mind the Arctic Ocean ice melting away for a few days in September. Please describe any downside to that. (Please leave out the Polar Bears. That has been studied to death, despite rising populations.) and I am still waiting, along with all the rest on my side of the subject, for my first oil company check, or indeed any check.

  8. slimething

    JC, you didn’t get the message. The Swiss Alps snow is not disappearing, it is exactly opposite of what the U.N. Ministry of Propaganda was promoting.

    Of course JC you are assuming PIOMAS has any relationship to reality. If it is correct, the Arctic should be ice free in a couple years as we’re told the ice is melting rapidly. Don’t ice cubes melt faster the smaller they get?
    Shouldn’t the trajectory be something like this?
    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/
    http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy119/jwslimething/PIOMAS20ice20min20201220projected_zps2e7f778f.jpg

    I’m not seeing the death spiral, can you point it out?
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
    http://i783.photobucket.com/albums/yy119/jwslimething/screenhunter_37-feb-02-10-26_zps8beddb5d.jpg

    Don’t you think it odd that all the predictions for an ice-free Arctic every year since 2007 has failed miserably, and all of them were based on PIOMAS? Let us all know when it disappears again this year.

    Whatever happened to Cryosat? It was supposed to be the final word on Arctic ice volume with monthly updates giving the world a visual representation of the death spiral. It seems to have faded into obscurity.

    Maybe consideration should be given that PIOMAS like so many modeling exercises is not based on empirical data or reality, but a hodgepodge of error ridden models upon models (GRACE and the sea level budget for instance). When the curtain is pulled away we find a bunch of bumpkins pulling levers on GCM’s all based on the imaginations of their programmers.

    Yet, we have this modeling exercise that predicts a summer free Arctic not in 10, 20 or 30 years, but at the end of the century. Of course it is also based on the assumption we understand more than 10% of the climate system. Nevertheless,
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/01/new-paper-finds-worst-case-scenario-is.html

    So, in the faith driven world of PIOMAS, if ice volume has decreased 80% since 1979 as you say, it will take 90 more years for that little bit of ice left to completely melt away in the summer. Pure hubris.

    It seems every month there are several new papers published supporting the pre-hockey stick fraud indicating it has been much warmer in the recent past in that region and globally. Example:
    http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/studies/l1_northsweden.php

  9. slimething

    “New paper finds glaciers in Glacier National Park retreated up to 6 times faster during the 1930′s than the past 40 years”

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2012/09/new-paper-finds-glaciers-in-glacier.html

    Okay?

  10. Ed Caryl

    For a really good paper on the Arctic, with an complete explanation of the reason for the recent ice minimums, go here.
    http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/rs_arctic.htm
    It has nothing to do worth CO2, and it has happened before.

  11. Ed Caryl

    With not worth.

  12. glenncz

    It is incredible how greedy, selfish Man has added one extra part in 20,000 of CO2 to the atmosphere and that is the sole reason that the arctic summer minimum has decreased the past 40 years. (an extra 50 ppm).

    Forget about the influence of El Nino predominance from 1980 through 2000, or the AMO or possible solar influences or as mentioned above the enormous increase in soot from China during that period. It is all because 1 part in 20,000 changed from “something” to CO2! Forget that the atmosphere is made up of about 20,000 parts of water vapor per million(which is much more difficult to measure because the water vapro concentration is so variable across the globe), while CO2 has only 400 ppm, meaning water vapor is at least 50 time more prevalent in our atmosphere. It’s so easy to make this all so simple and blame it all on the change of 50 ppm of CO2 – 1 in 20,000 parts of the atmosphere. There can be no other answer, right?

  13. glenncz

    And then considering the greenhouse effect of CO2, we have to understand the saturation effect, which means that CO2′s has less and less effect per part as its’ concentration grows. So increasing CO2 from 350 to 400 ppm doesn’t increase its’ greenhouse effect by 1/7th, but by a degree less, all the while most of the greenhouse effect is from water vapor.

    In reality, a 1% decrease in clouds or a small change in the ocean currents or the latent effect of the sun (magnetic, irradiance who knows) or even effects of changes in planetary orbits – could be responsible for the 1F rise in temperature the past 75 years.