Russian Scientists Warn Global Temperatures To Fall 1.5°C By 2050. Strong Doubts About Warming

Yesterday Germany’s No. 1 daily (circulation over 3.5 million), Bild online, carried the shock headline story: “Russian scientist sees next ice age approaching. Starting in 2014 it will start getting colder and colder +++ migration of people cannot be excluded“.

Cold_NOAA photo

Renowned Russian scientist Chabibullo Abdussamatov warns of a harsher global climate beginning in 2014 and extending for decades. Photo credit: NOAA public domain photo.

Other media outlets are reporting as well, see here, here, and here.

Stories in Germany about global cooling, hard winters, and ice ages have been popping up faster than dandelions in May lately. Global warming is beginning to look historical.

Bild starts by reporting that finally the snow and ice gripping Russia since October are beginning to thaw. “That’s why most Russians shake their heads skeptically when the topic of global warming pops up, Bild writes.

While some scientists say the cold is due to global warming, “one scientist at the Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg sees it completely differently: He sees the next ice age approaching soon!

Astrophysicist Chabibullo Abdussamatov claims that the sun will radiate significantly less warmth in the coming years. “Consequently a ‘little ice age’ lies ahead.”

Bild adds that Abdussamatov says the Earth has had a negative energy budget since 1990, but that the oceans have been able to compensate with its stored energy. But the Russian scientist now says that’s over. Bild writes:

Beginning around 2014 the average annual temperature will begin to drop, and by 2050 it will be about 1.5°C cooler than today when the low point is reached. Also the water temperature in the world’s oceans will fall about 1°C.”

Personally, I think Abdussamatov is being too pessimistic. He says solar activity will be responsible for the decline, and says the 1.5°C temperature drop will be enough for Greenland to reglaciate. Other effects will be “a return to real hard Russian winters“, and cooler summers. Moreover he says the cooling will really start getting underway in 2015.

Abdussamatov is not the only scientist who is seriously skeptical of global warming. Bild writes that Andrei Fursov, Director of the Center for Russian Science at the Moscow University of Intellectual Sciences warns about the apocalyptic scenarios floating around. “The feared global warming left the worry of the ozone hole in the shadows. In the meantime, the ozone hole has since closed up by itself.”

Fursov says in an interview:

The ice at the poles is really melting, but that does necessarily have anything to do with greenhouse gases.”

Interesting that Abdussamatov sees a negative energy balance since 1990. An interesting view from Russia that needs to be looked at.

 

39 responses to “Russian Scientists Warn Global Temperatures To Fall 1.5°C By 2050. Strong Doubts About Warming”

  1. Kevin R. Lohse

    “Stories in Germany about global cooling, hard winters, and ice ages have been popping up faster than dandelions lately”

    This is not difficult. To this date, not one dandelion has shown itself in my east Kent garden.

  2. stephen richards

    Plenty of dandelions (pisenlit) here in western europe. I’ve been mowing them for 3 weeks.

  3. Juergen Uhlemann

    “migration of people cannot be excluded” – good luck

    The biggest challenge will be food and water. A lot of our food production areas will have reduced harvest or will be completely wiped out.

    I guess we will produce a lot of food in Greenhouses (ironic) and it will require a huge amount of energy from coal, gas and oil (nuclear?).

    1. Jimbo

      IF the Earth does cool over the next decade it will be very interesting to see the reaction of Warmists. Rest assured they will somehow write a paper showing how in fact it’s our fault. If not Co2 then they will find soot from burning fossil fuels so we still need to adopt wind and solar. I am not joking either. Remember that we were told to expect warmer winters and when that failed to materialize they quickly shifted gear and told us that in fact they meant colder winters.

      CAGW is not science but a new age religion dreamt up by comfortable Westerners.

      1. DirkH

        The comfortable Westernes might soon become slightly less comfortable as their remaining wealth gets embezzled by the warmist ultrastate – as seen in the test case Cyprus.

      2. Slioch

        Please delete Slioch post – error in data given

      3. Slioch

        Jimbo: “Remember that we were told to expect warmer winters …”

        Which is what we have experienced.

        Here are the ten year average global average temperature anomalies for Dec/Jan/Feb for the ten years ending in the years given, from NASA GISS:

        1972 … -0.027
        1982 … +0.088
        1992 … +0.251
        2002 … +0.426
        2012 … +0.586

        See: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

    2. mwhite

      “Britain ‘running out of wheat’ owing to bad weather”

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22050874

      They’ll still blame it on AGW.

      1. mwhite
  4. Harry Dale Huffman

    There are no competent climate scientists in Russia, either.

    1. richard

      Harry, you will be proven right in the end.

    2. richard

      Harry,

      excuse my language, 390 out and 342 in – WTF!! I am not a scientist but that is ludicrous numbers, who put that diagram together. Haha maybe it’s heat from the earth’s core added.

      And we don’t have to get into detailed physical theory or wordy explanations to pin down what’s wrong with it: The power coming off the surface (the number 390) is larger than the incident power from the Sun (342). (The power shown as “back radiated” by the atmosphere is about as large as that from the Sun, too.)

  5. Casper
    1. pekke

      “Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,” ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda.

      On March 29th, 176,000 square kilometers of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice, a record for the time of year. On a map, it means about half of the central and northern parts are frozen over. Far north, the ice is both thick and difficult to break through. ”

      http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/

      1. Bernd Felsche

        ISTR that an icebreaker was recalled several years ago from supporting research in Antarctica (during the southern summer) because the icebreaker was expected to be needed to meet an increasing demand for ice breakers in the Baltic. My memory isn’t good on detail, just generalities. I’ll do some more web searches. I might be a while.

        1. Bernd Felsche

          That was quick… Autonomous Mind

          Reality of sea ice is starting to bite
          One problem with ‘global warming’ that scientists and journalists seem to gloss over is that it doesn’t seem to be, well, global. Some areas have exhibited more warming than others.

          … the story published in the journal Science…

          Last month, the Swedish government abruptly ended an ongoing agreement with the U.S. National Science Foundation that allowed NSF to lease Oden, the pride of the Swedish icebreaking fleet and also the world’s most capable polar-class research vessel. NSF has used the ship each winter since 2006–07 to clear a path through the sea ice to resupply McMurdo Station, the largest scientific outpost in Antarctica and the hub for U.S. activities on the continent. The Swedish government decided that the Oden needed to stay at home this coming winter after two harsh winters disrupted shipping lanes in the region.

  6. Layne

    Curious that he would say 2014. Perhaps he suspects this marks the point when the current SC will begin waning.

    My suspicion is the dramatic drop in the AP Index (starting late 2005) will eventually be identified as a key turning point.

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  8. Ulrich Elkmann

    I wonder why it took so long for that coin to drop? From Ulli Kulke’s blog at Die Welt:
    http://donnerunddoria.welt.de/2013/04/06/die-natur-killt-das-klima-sagt-die-holzwirtschaft/
    It’s Mother Nature it(her?)self who’s killing the climate – according to the lumber industry. At least in the national parks, where all that dead wood is Left To Rot, thus releasing the well-known poison gas CO2. It’s only by turning the wood into building frames & furniture, pronto, that the end of the world can be etc. (Matches, I fear, are not what they had in mind). I suppose they will have to destroy that village in order to save it.

  9. Rosco

    Abdussamatov is not the only person to have made a prediction about cooling due to decreased solar activity in the coming decades.

    Dr. Theodor Landscheidt predicted a Gleissberg minimum will occur in about 2030 –

    http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm.

    His prediction was that it will be more like the Maunder minimum – the little ice age period.

    He predicts we needn’t wait till 2030 before seeing the approach –

    “We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.”

    We have experienced predominantly LaNina conditions since the last ElNino in 2010, the worlds oceans are showing below average temperature anomalies, solar cycle 24 is showing far less “strength” than recent cycles.

    Further, where I live it has been dramatically cloudier, cooler and wetter since 2010 – 3 years of noticeably cloudier weather than prior to 2009 when for a decade or more we had clear skies and considerably less rainfall.

    If this were to be a global trend then cooling may well be coming and perhaps very soon.

    Dr Landscheit died in 2004 I think.

  10. Ulrich Elkmann

    @Rosco: I would be VERY careful in referencing Landscheidt. Just a look at this: http://wiki.astro.com/astrowiki/de/Theodor_Landscheidt & go over it with some translator bot – TL may have even been right in his theory that planets have some kind of regulatory effect on solar magnetism (there was something along those lines earlier this year); but otherwise he was an ASTROLOGER:

    “Due to the large mass of the Galactic Center, Landscheidt was also the first astrologer who postulated a meaning of that astronomical point. The same applies for the apex, the direction of flight of the solar system [8], and heliocentric astrology.”

    So not only would we all be believers in alien abductions; we would also subscribe to “what’s your sign?” in the eyes of the Manns & Hansens. Since I hold both, ah, hypotheses to be mutually exclusive, I would prefer to have two Fox Mulders to want to believe in them.

    1. DirkH

      The weird thing is that this astrologer came up with a better prediction than all the climate scientists and supercomputers the governments of the Western world could buy together.

      It turns out that humans have used knowledge of lunar cycles and longer cycles for thousands of years. Why would they do that?
      http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/04/lunar-cycles-more-than-one/

      Maybe because these cycles do have an impact?

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  12. R James

    P Gosselin – the scientific process is to come up with an hypotheses, then test it against real data. If it doesn’t correlate, change the hypothesis. However, as I’m sure you are aware, both GISS and Hadley changed their data to increase recent warming. Do you believe they’d have made the change if it decreased the warming?

    I have little confidence in their data. I have more confidence in RSS. NASA has even admitted (in confidential correspondence) that they are focussed more on USA than global.

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  14. Graf Cackle

    Do these ‘Russian scientists’ take money from Gazprom, by any chance?

    And Bild, a real newspaper of record!

    1. DirkH

      So… warmist scientists taking money from a Western state that has a financial interest in imposing new taxes leaves you impartial then?

      As for Bild… do you imply Bild has not reported Abdussamatov ‘s theory correctly? You have a computer; why don’t you google for it – you will find that Bild has done a perfect job here.

      Cackle, come up with arguments if you want to be taken seriously. Simple smears won’t do.

  15. John

    Sounds like they are talking about the effects of the Landscheidt Solar Grand Minimum.

  16. Chad Robinson

    Man made global warming has always been an arrogant Hoax. In the 1970’s and 80’s they were fear mongering a for certain comming ice age even got legislation passed for it in 1975.

    Our current level of 0.39% of Atomospheric CO2 is normal and natural maybe a bit low but that happens when sun spots are not very active. Earth is heated and cooled by our Sun not plant food (Co2).

    The sad part is our diverted attention and resouces away from real issues where a difference could be made with resources spent on carbon with no R.O.I.
    plus Americans recieved the largest e.p.a. tax ever (646 Billion) on this non issue.

    The Head of N.A.S.A. was fired (everyone got the message) by the white house in 2009 because he wouldn’t sell out the American People and join in on the Co2 scandal with the repeating Parrots with the same lie’s since 1895 (NY Times) and no one will dare mention the record lows around the globe the last three years because they are afraid to get fired.

    It even snowed in Bagdad first time in 100 years. Maine reached record 50 below couple years ago.

    Record snowfalls in China, Australia and NZ.

    Other Goverments around the world are waking up to the UK/ USA non existant Carbon Scam.

    But here we love taxing a non issue misallocating our resouces in non productive sectors so the elete can set up another unregulated derivative casino for mom & pop to bail out later.

    The more U.S. debt = more interests revenue from dwindeling U.S. upper & middle class to the International Banking Elete.

    Countries that have adopted the british cap and trade carbon tax model have doubled rates for the end consumer who will have to choose between heat, RX or food.

    With the next 22 t0 33 year cold period there will be shorter growing seasons less yield and millions will die of famine, Almost four million a year die now of malnutrition which effects 1/2 the world population.

    1. Ed Caryl

      Great summary, Chad.