A few days ago Switzerland’s flagship daily the NZZ also commented on the Otto et al paper, which indicates CO2 climate sensitivity was over-estimated and that the worst-case scenarios very likely aren’t going to take place.
Otto et al is just more hard evidence showing earlier models completely miss the barn. Chart source: www.drroyspencer.com.
What we are noticing from the NZZ article is that overall alarmism in Europe is diminishing, fast, even in the media. The title of the NZZ piece is: “Climate is reacting less sensitive to CO2 than thought“.
Recall that some alarmist scientists are still desperately insisting the climate catastrophe is coming, and that it’s just going to take a little longer to get here – like during our great-granchildren’s lifetime. But journalists in Europe are slowly waking up to all the wolf-crying. The cryers of wolf are looking more and more like the town fools. The more people walk away and stop listening to them, the shriller they get.
The report starts by explaining to readers what is meant by CO2 sensitivity, and then tells us the study’s new results:
In a new study on climate sensitivity, the authors ended up with comparably lower values: Their estimated central value is near 2°C of warming, a third less than the UN report.¹ However, the uncertainty is also large in the new study.”
The NZZ also tells readers that the Otto et al study is not just some isolated paper that is bucking a consensus of high CO2 sensitivity, but is “the latest in a number of papers” showing that the prognoses of global warming have been exaggerated. The NZZ quotes climate scientist Andreas Schmittner von der Oregon State University, who said that “most studies of last years have shown a somewhat lesser climate sensitivity“.
What’s more, the NZZ looks at the Transient Climate Response (TCR), which indicates how much the air will warm up by the time CO2 doubles. Here the NZZ writes that the authors project a short term climate reaction of 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels. “That’s 0.5°C warming from today“. The NZZ writes:
Several other recent studies had indicated an over-estimation. With the latest study, this finding is further solidified.”
Another point that the NZZ brings up is that the new study was not able to reduce uncertainty.
Looking at the above figure, one thing is certain: the observations so far show that all the models have been exaggerating and that even Otto et al’s newest estimation is likely to be an exaggeration itself.
3 responses to “Alarm Called Off! Leading Swiss Daily NZZ On Otto et al: “Climate Reacts Less To CO2 Than Thought””
I certainly agree with your last sentence. Ominous is the decline effect we see in the sensitivity estimate, suggesting cherry-picking of data for the initial estimates and publication bias. This goes in the same direction as claims about medicines that proved in the long run completely worthless.
“one thing is certain: the observations so far show that all the models have been exaggerating” yes, indeed.
For some reason I recall Abraham Lincoln’s remark that;
“You call fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”.
The graph is probably the most powerful weapon we sceptics have. If only we had the oil funding to put it up on billboards along major streets with just the IPCC forecast in black and satellite observations.
If temperatures start / continue? falling then it has to be game over. Yet, they will cling on for dear life causing themselves great stress and humiliation.