German Climate Experts Confirm McIntyre: IPCC’s Last Minute Chart Substitution Was A “Dubious Illusory Trick”

By Dr Sebastian Lüning and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P. Gosselin)

Perhaps you’ll recall how about a year ago a draft version of the recently appearing IPCC AR5 found its way to the public’s attention. That draft report contained an important chart that clearly illustrated the failure of all climate prognoses over the last 15 years. The actually observed temperatures of the last years were clearly below the models’ projected range, see Figure 1:

Figure 1: Chart from the Second Order Draft of the IPCC climate report (Figure 1.4. Yellow arrows show digitization of cited Figure 10.26 of AR4).

So it’s no wonder that this chart never saw the light of day in the final version of the IPCC final report. At his blog Climate Audit Steve McIntyre took a close look and researched why the substitute chart used in the final version (Figure 2) looks so different.

His summary conclusion: Without any plausible explanation, the colored forecast ranges were shifted and the chart was set up to be confusing. Moreover, what’s worse, the new version was never subjected to professional review or quality control, and was slipped in at the last minute as a replacement chart. This is a very dubious illusory trick for which the involved parties will have to answer to in the coming years when the historical-scientific examination of the climate-alarmism era takes place.

Figure 2: In the end, this chart was used in the final version.


Dr. Sebastian Lüning is a geologist/paleontologist and has been working 20 years reconstructing natural past climate changes of the geological past. Fritz Vahrenholt is a professor of chemistry at the University of Hamburg and an expert in energy. Both are co-authors of the 2012 book Die kalte Sonne in which they say there is no approaching climate catastrophe. In 2013 ‘Die kalte Sonne’ became available in English under the title: The Neglected Sun – How the Sun Precludes Climate Catastrophe. Vahrenholt and Lüning run the leading German climate alarmism critical website: Die kalte Sonne.


7 thoughts on “German Climate Experts Confirm McIntyre: IPCC’s Last Minute Chart Substitution Was A “Dubious Illusory Trick””

  1. Dear readers,
    I’ve reconfigured the reader comments function. To leave comments in the future, readers will first have to be logged onto WordPress.

    Sorry for this inconvenience.

    After logging on, you’ll be able to leave comments.

    I was just getting way too much spam (hundreds per hour) and it took too much time to check the spam filter for reader comments that got caught in it every day. Many of you may have noticed that your comments were getting delayed.

    I hope you’ll register and keep commenting in the future. Your comments mean a lot to this blog. -Pierre

  2. First try did not work – log-in was in German and my English didn’t suit. Or something. Then I commented on WUWT (also WordPress) and when I came back here my info was here and ready to go. Works for me.

    1. I guess it doesn’t matter where you log in on WordPress. Glad to see your comment made it – will have to see how other readers fare.

  3. I’m always logged into WordPress.
    Between adjusting the temperatures and adjusting the charts, they fudge everything.

    1. Hi Ed,
      This morning I found only 30 spams…before changing the settings there were more than 2000.
      Indeed, there is now a clear pattern of fudging, cherry-picking and exaggerating.

  4. “Sorry for this inconvenience. ”

    Not an issue, always logged into WP. Would much rather have you spend time on articles than wading through spam.

    Regards, keep up the good work!

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