News of the NOAA’s miserable, failed 2013 hurricane prediction performance has spread to Europe.
May 23, 2013:
NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season – Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues
For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).”
to the NOAA press release from November 25 November 2013:
NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close: No major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin – first time since 1994
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Saturday, Nov. 30, had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, thanks in large part to persistent, unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This year is expected to rank as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, in terms of the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes. […] Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.”
Scientists Vahrenholt’s and Lüning’s conclusion:
This year’s failed prognoses show just how difficult forecasts still can be. In regards to these prognoses, forecasts for an entire century into the future are even more questionable. While annual forecasts at least can be checked and compared to the actual development, this is certainly not possible for prognoses up to the year 2100. The followers of the climate catastrophe theory gleefully exploit this. Activists scientists such as Stefan Rahmstorf or Mojib Latif would be well-advised to be more careful with their argumentation and to be more clear about the huge uncertainties.”
Please note that Lüning and Vahrenholt are not being overly critical of the NOAA, but simply just want to point out that climate scientists shouldn’t be so cocky about their predictions – especially those dealing with the future, let alone 100 years out.