History is chock full with doomsday scenarios, peddled by profiteering charlatans, scenarios that time and again keep getting postponed decades into the future. Man running out of oil in 20 years has been around for a century. The claim still keeps getting made even by people who really should know better. And every time the goal posts end up getting pushed back.
A German industrial news site PROCESS here reports that leading German consulting group Roland Berger has recently released a new study titled: “Are we running out of oil?”
The answer is “no”. Moreover, Roland Berger writes that the future is oil.
PROCESS writes: “The core message of the study on the topic of oil supply: Supply bottlenecks are not to be expected because of the increasing number of oil reserves.”
The doomsday scenario of depleted oil reserves gets postponed again. PROCESS writes that the price of oil is poised to fall below 70 dollars a barrel. The primary reason for the downward crude oil prices is the increasing number of global oil reserves that are resulting from improved drilling methods. The Roland Berger study writes that currently there are an estimated 2.6 trillion barrels of crude in easily accessible reserves and 3.3 trillion barrels in unconventional reserves like oil sands and shale.
Challenges faced by alternative energy will spur demand for crude oil
The study also writes that the supply of oil will be less subject to political instability due to a supply that is becoming increasingly diversified and that production will increase in non-OPEC nations. According to PROCESS, demand for oil worldwide will also increase, with strong consumption growth taking place in the Middle and Far East, particularly China.
One reason for the expected demand in oil? PROCESS write (my emphasis):
In view of the rapid GDP growth after the financial crisis, the minimal state regulation in emerging countries and the challenges that the operators of alternative energies have to deal with, the demand for crude oil will increase.”
In summary, a global caliber consulting group concludes that alternative energies aren’t going to be able to meet the needs. The future is oil.
Also read about Germany’s Energiewende 2.0: http://www.spiegel.de/html.