At his blog, Die Welt veteran journalist Ulli Kulke writes about the British Met Office’s seemingly obstinate refusal to cast off its ideological addiction to planetary warming and the Office’s consequently resulting overblown annual global temperature forecasts year after year.
Systematic false alarms
As the data roll in, it’s now clear that 2013 was “among the top 10 warmest years” and is thus good enough for the media to proclaim that global warming is happening unhindered and that everyone has to remain in a state of alarm.
And climate institutes just keep on sounding alarms of hotter years ahead. Kulke writes:
Example: The climate scientists at the British Met Office. They have always issued false alarms, and today we can even say systematic false alarms. Of all the annual forecasts on global temperature made this century, 14 in total, the scientists have wound up landing above the actual value 13 times. Paul Hudson, climate and weather expert of the BBC, points this out.”
Flipping a coin would already represent a vast methodological improvement for the Met Office. Kulke writes that it is obvious that the Met Office has “learned nothing from their experience“, and adds:
Apparently they just refuse to accept the reality that the trend is no longer going up in any significant statistical way (as even the IPCC has admitted this in the meantime). It is stunning, but some never learn.”
For 2014 the Met Office predicts that global temperature again will be 0.57°C above the long-term average.
It sounds as if the Met Office scientists are just playing a broken record.
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Minus 73°F in Siberia
Aside from the story of failed forecasts from the Met Office, extreme cold is now gripping large parts of Siberia, with some locations showing temperatures at 60°F below zero and colder. One location taken from early this morning shows -73°F. So much for melting permafrost!
Image cropped from www.weatherbell.com/ yesterday evening CET.
From my toolkit: binomial distribution, success probability per trial 0.5, probability of at least 13 successes in 14 trials equals 0.001.
It would save a lot of bother if they would just stamp WE ARE BIASED across all their correspondence. Why are they still funded?
Ed – they are still funded because they are biased. If they didnt promote the government line then their millions would quickly dry up and many of the MET employees would be unemployable..sorry, I meant unemployed.
Paul, yes, I know that. But those forecasts are not useful for anything more than parrot cage lining. But I suppose that’s true for any government document.
Pierre, please take a look at the new facility here
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=5.06,90.27,329
it shows beatifully just how cold the northen hemisphere actually is and how large the area of cold is as well.
Compare it to the southern hemisphere.
The other thing it shows is how the Polar Vortex over both northern continents is spawning low pressure areas to the east and south east of the USA which are heading over to Britain and battering us. I assume it is the temperature differential that causing it.
The other question is what is that cold air being dragged over the Atlantic doing to the water’s surface temps.
Excellent – thanks!
What’s F?
-58C.
The Met Office is still funded because governments are afraid of getting rid of incompetent and useless beaurocrats. It doesn’t mind if they lie or are blattantly wrong, or there is no science at all… socialist leaning governments abhor increasing unemployement.
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