Another Failed Outlook: NOAA/NCEP Totally Botch 2013-2014 Winter Outlooks For USA and Europe – Exact Opposite Occurs!

If you think it just couldn’t be possible for any weather outfit to perform as poorly as the UK’s Met Office in long-term outlooks (13 out of 14 wrong), think again. It appears the US national weather services are right on their heels when it comes to who can make the all-time least accurate outlooks.

And we’re supposed to believe these people when it comes to their climate forecasting?

At this week’s Weatherbell Saturday Summary here, Joe Bastardi puts up the results of how well the NOAA winter outlook issued last fall ended up doing.

Here’s what their outlook called for:

NOAA 2013_14 Winter ForecastNote how they said the chances for normal temperatures were about even for much of the country and warm down south. Averaging it out: a moderately warmer than normal winter. Today we see that the Midwest is having one of its harshest winters in decades and that the Great Lakes are almost completely frozen over.

Here’s how the winter has been so far:

NOAA 2013_2014 Observed

One couldn’t be more wrong even if he tried like hell to be so.

Here’s what Joe Bastardi’s Weatherbell envisioned before winter started:

Weatherbell 2013_2014 Winter Outlook

 Weatherbell’s outlook for winter 2013/14. Source: Weatherbell.

Weatherbell pretty much nailed it dead on.

Unfortunately, the outlook situation for this winter by the same US weather services is just as sorrowful for Europe. Last fall some German meteorologists, basing their outlooks on charts from the US weather services, were warning of strong chances that the winter would “be really cold“. But instead of a brutal cold winter, Europe is now ending up with one of its mildest ever. The opposite is what has actually happened.

I think taxpayers and citizens deserve much more than getting information that is constantly turning out to be consistently wrong – for both weather and climate outlooks. We’re getting sick of it. How about getting some competent people back into these organizations for once?

With private meteorologists, we at least have the option of firing them. But with the state weather offices, we have to put up with their screw ups and keep hearing that we’re just deniers whenever we lift a finger and that we ought to just keep quiet. And if that weren’t bad enough, at NASA GISS they are even altering and rewriting the temperature history in a twisted desperate effort to make their faulty forecasts appear correct!

To Joe’s credit, he says we ought to respect the people at the US weather services for their work.

But I don’t – not anymore. What for? I guy flipping a coin would do a far better job.


24 thoughts on “Another Failed Outlook: NOAA/NCEP Totally Botch 2013-2014 Winter Outlooks For USA and Europe – Exact Opposite Occurs!”

  1. What amazes me at this point in time that these “green meteorologists and organizations” that have botched every single public statement they have produced, STILL get quoted and discussed?

    1. Dear ArndB,

      I fully agree with you! After 40 years experience in weather forecasting I see it statistically very unlikely that the mild winter is propagating to a warm spring. Also when considering the Rossby waves, whose change in general has a certain time scale, this is right due. The time period from early January to mid February is referred to as “Hochwinter” (high winter). During this time, we seldom experience a change in the Rossby long wave pattern. But normally (about 8 of 10 cases) after such a period a change will occur, and I can’t see any reason why this should not be the case this year.

      Dipl.-Met. Hans-Deiter Schmidt

  2. “With private meteorologists, we at least have the option of firing them.”

    Joe Bastardi should know…. He got fired from The Weather Channel.

  3. I thought Joe Bastardi worked for Aacuweather. Ak well, why let facts get in the way of opinions.

      1. That should teach me. I assumed buffy was right and Bastardi worked at TWC earlier in his career. But no, he gets even that wrong.

        Buffy, are you a fabulist? Then why don’t you work for the White House? They are always in need of writers with no grounding in reality.

      2. Pierre: I’m crushed:(

        You are right (wow….never thought I would say THAT). Joe Bastardi wasn’t fired from The Weather Channel…..he was fired from Accuweather. My bad.

        By the way….have you seen his neat photo-shop job? Pretty cool…

        A nice phot-shop of a Time magazine cover from 2007… by Joe to say it was from 1977.

        Now THAT is a weatherman you can trust:)

        1. I trust people who get their predictions right, and not those who get them wrong and rewrite the historical data.

  4. Buddy & Wilson M how about a little research before commenting. You could have clicked on the weaterbell link under the chart. Here is the link to the team there Very impressive includes Dr Ryan Maue, however while the team includes some Civil Engineers who probably understand fluid dynamics unfortunately there is no chemical engineer who could advise them about heat & mass transfer, and have a different view about fluid dynamics including evaporation & condensation.

  5. Top article and Well done JoeB and all.
    Meanwhile our WeatherAction USA month-by month forecasts for USA also captured the terrible coldmageddons and snowmageddons N/E USA IN DETAIL and the mild (much smaller area) West & SW USA hits.
    For Ireland, Britain and Europe there ws also a tendency by UK MetO / standard model tailists – which covers most of UK weather commenters apart from WeatherAction – to go for pretty insane forecasts like 100 days of blizzards & ice; a great freeze up from early Jan through Feb; and various serious cold hopecasts With 19 days to go to end Feb it is clear all these efforts have failed and dare I say it the one closest to reality for Br+Ire and Europe is WeatherAction. Incidentally our forecast did also capture the cold snowy blasts in E & SE Europe.
    But what now? Rather than admit they are clueless the warmist-standard Model cabal are going for the Goebells-esque BIG LIE – “All extremes are CO2 extremes” even though all the recent extremes are the opposite to what they warned of in the last 10 years (end of snow, drought UK summers…) please see our latest pdf directed against the state-sponsered climate charlatans in USA and UK and the renamed IPCC – Intergovernmental panel of Climate Charlatans:- and links therein.
    Thank you,
    Piers Corbyn WeatherAction

  6. It is this dishonesty in all things government that are going to bring about a revolution. Too bad because there will be great suffering by everyone because of these political despots. There is no other way to get rid of them since they have so much control of everything and everyone.

    It must end or we are done as a free people.

  7. Buddy 8. Februar 2014 at 22:13 | Permalink | Reply “With private meteorologists, we at least have the option of firing them.” Joe Bastardi should know…. He got fired from The Weather Channel. –

    Every time to come here with your spite, ignorance and venom you make yourself look a bigger idiot. You are even outdoing some of your climate science friends.

    Joe Bastardi never worked for TWC but Joe D’Aleo did and so did a lot of other people like Coleman. They left for pastures green rather than stay with the watermelons.

    Just pi$$ off.

  8. Here in the UK we had some rain, and rain, and rain, and rain, and some more rain on top of that. Somerset is one big swamp as the rivers have not been dredged in years.

    I am not sure whether snow is preferable to rain, and rain, and rain.

  9. The NOAA is in the tank with the IPCC and all the other climate change/global warming fraudsters. Why ANYONE would believe one of their long range forecasts is beyond me…

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