After a record five consecutive colder-than-normal winters, this year’s 2013/14 German meteorological winter (DJF) is coming in as a mild one, reports Germany’s DWD Deutsche Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) here.
This will be the first winter in 6 years that has been above the long-term mean, calculated for the reference period 1981-2010.
According to German weather statistics as of February 15, 2014 the DWD writes:
The summary thus far of this meteorological winter shows that the mean temperature across German was about 2.6°C. The average for the reference period of the years 1961 to 1990 is only 0.2°C, which means the current level is 2.4°C warmer. The current winter will likely be in the Top 10 warmest winters since 1881, as we reported here yesterday.”
The DWD provides a link to a page with the following chart:
Germany’s plot of mean DJF winter temperatures since 1881. Source: www.dwd.de.
The DWD writes that the 2013/14 winter likely will not make it into the Top 3 (1975, 1990 and 2007), unless an unusual warm spell takes hold for the remainder of the month.
The latest forecasts show that the mild weather will continue, thanks to the latest in a long series of low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic which have that have pumped plenty of mild maritime air over Europe during much of the winter.
Overall, German winters over the last 20 years have been trending significantly cooler, contradicting climate models.
The chart above also shows that after the unusually warm winters, cold ones followed immediately or just a couple of years later. So don’t export this year’s surplus road salt over to the US just yet!
Pierre:
You know…..I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed…..or the brightest bulb in the package….BUT….two things “pop out” to me on that graph of winters in Germany from 1880 – NOW:
1) The 7 warmest winters in Germany have occured SINCE 1975 (I’m not counting the current winter…..yet….but it will be close to th 8th warmest).
2) The 8 coldest winters in Germany occured occured from 1892 – 1964.
You get my drift? The TREND goes from the “lower left”…..to the “upper right”. In graph language….that is RISING TREND.
Looks to me like that graph shows a WARMING TREND in winter FROM 1880 through 2014.
I like the graph. I DON’T like the warming trend…….:)
Buddy, that is the simplistic view. It ignores several things. The Little Ice Age ended in about 1850. It has been recovering -warming, since then. The Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation, a rough sine wave, peaked in the 1930s and the 1990s. You can faintly see that in the data. Third, urban heat island effects have increased in the last half of the 20th century. Try to curb your excitement. It isn’t doing your heart any good!
Ed:
My heart is just great:). It’s this warming climate that isn’t so good:(
And we both know what ended the little ice age don’t we……:)
http://www.nature.com/news/how-soot-killed-the-little-ice-age-1.13650
I’m not sure which is worse: The coal dust or the CO2? Close call.
Good thing that countries like Denmark are putting more and more resources into alternative, clean, energy:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/14/3296351/denmark-climate-goals/
Coal dust (black carbon) or CO2? BC reduces albedo, especially on snow and ice, but disappears in weeks. CO2 hangs around for a few years and is plant food. Easy choice.
Denmark? Is going down the tubes economically.
Actually I see no warming from 1880 to 1987, then one sudden step. Also the last 10 years are at about the same level as 1910-20. In fact cooling from 1910 to 1985, i.e. a time when CO2 rose substantially. Lots of ways of looking at it I guess.
“Lots of ways of looking at it I guess.”
LOL. There is reality….and there is “coal pixie dust”. I think I know which one you chose:)
But Buddy, can you tell the difference?
“Buddy” will continue forever, he’s an operative. If “Buddy” drops dead, his Otpor organisation will send another “Buddy”. They will repeat the lie as long as the operation continues, every day, all days.
Buddy
18. Februar 2014 at 01:48 | Permalink | Reply
“LOL. There is reality….and there is “coal pixie dust”. I think I know which one you chose:)”
Well. This is what I said about a recent Otpor / Gene Sharp “color” revolution:
” They don’t need to be real as long as they are medial.
Like climate science computer model vs. real warming.
CO2AGW does not need real warming as long as the computer warms.
Climate science = Otpor science.
”
Buddy, an Otpor operative, claims that the warming in the computer models IS realitiy, and the stuff outside our windows must be ignored.
An advanced PsyOp warfare technique.
Buddy you forgot THIS. Bear this in mind when it comes to German winters, you have been sold a pig in a poke.
Buddy I almost forgot about the updated predictions. You point to warmer but the climate scientists now tell us that we should expect colder winters. Do you see the problem with any of your positions. I do.
The mildish western European winter has been caused by a larger temperature differential between pole and equator due to cooling at the poles. The result was a powerful jet stream bringing warm oceanic air into western Europe.
See here:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/update-2014-visual-proof-of-global-cooling/
If you want to know why it’s not carbon dioxide after all see this comment ..
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/17/crises-in-climatology/#comment-1570611
Buddy doesn’t like the warming trend he sees. I haven’t noticed such a trend in either the CET or the satellite temps. The CET does have an up-down hump that started in the early 1980s. Now it is about 1/3 degree higher than the mean. But, I’d like it a bit warmer. Warm is good.
I also like the higher CO2 levels. Below 200 starts to get really close to whip-out. Between 500 and 600 sounds good. That gives a bit of a cushion. I don’t think we’ll get to the high end of that – at least not from the human causes.
~~~~~~~~
I was busy shoveling snow, so missed the posts on Bill Nye. He needs meds.
About the “hallucinatory images:
“blood rain” happens – along with fish, frogs, and so on. In Europe the red is from iron oxide from across that big bit of water you have to the south.
http://violettevineyard.blogspot.com/2010/08/redblood-rain-in-india-alien-origins.html
http://allaboutfrogs.org/weird/general/raining.html
Is there any evidence of data adjustments in the German files?
There’s no evidence of availability of non-adjusted data. We don’t have FOIA.
What is the average here? Because the two years previous to this year are above the purple line.
The purple horizontal line represents the 1961 – 1990 mean, which corresponds to a cool period when warnings of global cooling were everywhere. The “5-cooler-than normal-winters in a row” are in reference to the 1981-2010 mean, which some argue is a more relevant comparison. It is not shown on the chart and, if I recall accurately, about 0.8°C above the 1961-1990 mean.