Relief At Last! Germany Sees First Warmer-Than-Average Winter In Six Years!

After a record five consecutive colder-than-normal winters, this year’s 2013/14 German meteorological winter (DJF) is coming in as a mild one, reports Germany’s DWD Deutsche Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) here.

This will be the first winter in 6 years that has been above the long-term mean, calculated for the reference period 1981-2010.

According to German weather statistics as of February 15, 2014 the DWD writes:

The summary thus far of this meteorological winter shows that the mean temperature across German was about 2.6°C. The average for the reference period of the years 1961 to 1990 is only 0.2°C, which means the current level is 2.4°C warmer. The current winter will likely be in the Top 10 warmest winters since 1881, as we reported here yesterday.”

The DWD provides a link to a page with the following chart:

DWD_Winter temp trend since 1881

Germany’s plot of mean DJF winter temperatures since 1881. Source: www.dwd.de.

The DWD writes that the 2013/14 winter likely will not make it into the Top 3 (1975, 1990 and 2007), unless an unusual warm spell takes hold for the remainder of the month.

The latest forecasts show that the mild weather will continue, thanks to the latest in a long series of low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic which have that have pumped plenty of mild maritime air over Europe during much of the winter.

Overall, German winters over the last 20 years have been trending significantly cooler, contradicting climate models.

The chart above also shows that after the unusually warm winters, cold ones followed immediately or just a couple of years later. So don’t export this year’s surplus road salt over to the US just yet!

 

18 responses to “Relief At Last! Germany Sees First Warmer-Than-Average Winter In Six Years!”

  1. Buddy

    Pierre:

    You know…..I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed…..or the brightest bulb in the package….BUT….two things “pop out” to me on that graph of winters in Germany from 1880 – NOW:

    1) The 7 warmest winters in Germany have occured SINCE 1975 (I’m not counting the current winter…..yet….but it will be close to th 8th warmest).

    2) The 8 coldest winters in Germany occured occured from 1892 – 1964.

    You get my drift? The TREND goes from the “lower left”…..to the “upper right”. In graph language….that is RISING TREND.

    Looks to me like that graph shows a WARMING TREND in winter FROM 1880 through 2014.

    I like the graph. I DON’T like the warming trend…….:)

    1. Ed Caryl

      Buddy, that is the simplistic view. It ignores several things. The Little Ice Age ended in about 1850. It has been recovering -warming, since then. The Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation, a rough sine wave, peaked in the 1930s and the 1990s. You can faintly see that in the data. Third, urban heat island effects have increased in the last half of the 20th century. Try to curb your excitement. It isn’t doing your heart any good!

      1. Buddy

        Ed:

        My heart is just great:). It’s this warming climate that isn’t so good:(

        And we both know what ended the little ice age don’t we……:)

        http://www.nature.com/news/how-soot-killed-the-little-ice-age-1.13650

        I’m not sure which is worse: The coal dust or the CO2? Close call.

        Good thing that countries like Denmark are putting more and more resources into alternative, clean, energy:

        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/14/3296351/denmark-climate-goals/

        1. Ed Caryl

          Coal dust (black carbon) or CO2? BC reduces albedo, especially on snow and ice, but disappears in weeks. CO2 hangs around for a few years and is plant food. Easy choice.

          Denmark? Is going down the tubes economically.

    2. Jimbo

      Buddy you forgot THIS. Bear this in mind when it comes to German winters, you have been sold a pig in a poke.

      1. Jimbo

        Buddy I almost forgot about the updated predictions. You point to warmer but the climate scientists now tell us that we should expect colder winters. Do you see the problem with any of your positions. I do.

        Independent – 24 December 2010
        Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists
        Scientists have established a link between the cold, snowy winters in Britain and melting sea ice in the Arctic…Vladimir Semenov write: “Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.”
        [Dr. Vladimir Semenov – International Maritime Organisation & Dr Vladimir Petoukhov – Potsdam Institute]
        ______________________

        LifeScience – 1 February, 2011
        With Climate Change, Expect More Monster Winter Storms
        “There’s no inconsistency at all,” Michael Mann, the director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center, told LiveScience. “If anything, this is what the models project: that we see more of these very large snowfalls.”
        [Dr. Michael E. Mann – Penn State University]
        ______________________

        Abstract 20 OCT 2012
        Dr. Shuting Yang et al
        Arctic sea ice reduction and European cold winters in CMIP5 climate change experiments
        …While Europe will warm overall in the future, we find that episodes of cold months will continue to occur and there remains substantial probability for the occurrence of cold winters in Europe linked with sea ice reduction in the Barents and Kara Sea sector….
        Geophysical Research Letters – Volume 39, Issue 20, 28 October 2012
        doi: 10.1029/2012GL053338
        ______________________

        Abstract – 12 March 2013
        Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss
        Professor Qiuhong Tang et al
        …The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favors the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.
        Environmental Research Letters
        doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036
        ______________________

        Discovery News – 16 February, 2014
        Jet Stream Shift Could Mean Harsher Winters
        …A warmer Arctic could permanently affect the pattern of the high-altitude polar jet stream, resulting in longer and colder winters over North America and northern Europe, U.S. scientists say….
        This suggests “that weather patterns are changing,” Francis said. “We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently.”
        [Dr. Jennifer Francis – Rutgers University]

  2. Stephen Wilde

    The mildish western European winter has been caused by a larger temperature differential between pole and equator due to cooling at the poles. The result was a powerful jet stream bringing warm oceanic air into western Europe.

    See here:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/update-2014-visual-proof-of-global-cooling/

  3. Visiting Physicist

    If you want to know why it’s not carbon dioxide after all see this comment ..
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/17/crises-in-climatology/#comment-1570611

  4. John F. Hultquist

    Buddy doesn’t like the warming trend he sees. I haven’t noticed such a trend in either the CET or the satellite temps. The CET does have an up-down hump that started in the early 1980s. Now it is about 1/3 degree higher than the mean. But, I’d like it a bit warmer. Warm is good.
    I also like the higher CO2 levels. Below 200 starts to get really close to whip-out. Between 500 and 600 sounds good. That gives a bit of a cushion. I don’t think we’ll get to the high end of that – at least not from the human causes.
    ~~~~~~~~

    I was busy shoveling snow, so missed the posts on Bill Nye. He needs meds.
    About the “hallucinatory images:
    “blood rain” happens – along with fish, frogs, and so on. In Europe the red is from iron oxide from across that big bit of water you have to the south.
    http://violettevineyard.blogspot.com/2010/08/redblood-rain-in-india-alien-origins.html
    http://allaboutfrogs.org/weird/general/raining.html

  5. R2Dtoo

    Is there any evidence of data adjustments in the German files?

    1. DirkH

      There’s no evidence of availability of non-adjusted data. We don’t have FOIA.

  6. Jarryd Beck

    What is the average here? Because the two years previous to this year are above the purple line.