Flurry Of Scientists, Recent Peer-Reviewed Papers, Warning Of Approaching Little Ice Age

There’s a lot of excitement flaring up, especially on the alarmist side, because of a possible super El Nino occurring later this year – one that could push global temperature to a new modern high.

That of course is entirely possible. However, it isn’t going to really matter, and possibly may only be the last death convulsion of planetary warming. Everyone knows that a cooling La Nina follows an El Nino event. Indeed a number of solar physicists are now warning that we may in fact be on our final days of warmth for a number of decades to come.

Geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt tells us why in their latest essay.

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Will the solar doldrums of the coming decades lead to cooling? A look at the latest scientific publications

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by NoTricksZone)

Seldom has the sun been as strong as we have seen it over the last 5 decades. Is it just a coincidence that the largest warming of the last 500 years occurred during this phase?

Just a few years ago the tide changed when the sun ended its hyperactive phase. Few people had anticipated this, and so it was a surprise for many. Solar physicist Leif Svalgaard of California’s Stanford University expressed it as follows at the American Geophysical Union last December:

“None of us alive have ever seen such a weak cycle. So we will learn something.”

And so science commenced to consider and think about what all this could lead to. The latest works on the subject include Qian et al. 2014 (“Secular changes in the thermosphere and ionosphere between two quiet Sun periods“), Zhao et al. 2014 (Modulation of galactic cosmic rays during the unusual solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24) and McCracken & Beer 2014 (Comparison of the extended solar minimum of 2006–2009 with the Spoerer, Maunder, and Dalton Grand Minima in solar activity in the past).

After a number of studies it has become clearer: It’s only the beginning! It is expected that the sun will continue becoming quieter over the coming decades. This has pretty much become the consensus among solar physicists. The latest studies on the subject come from Roth & Joos 2013, who assume a decline in solar activity to normal levels will occur during the 21st century. Salvador 2013 goes further and anticipates a solar minimum for the coming 30-100 years. Read the original abstract:

Using many features of Ian Wilson’s Tidal Torque theory, a mathematical model of the sunspot cycle has been created that reproduces changing sunspot cycle lengths and has an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers from 1749 to 2013. The model makes a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr, placing all the solar minimums in their right time periods. More importantly, I believe the model can be used to forecast future solar cycles quantitatively for 30 yr and directionally for 100 yr. The forecast is for a solar minimum and quiet Sun for the next 30 to 100 yr. The model is a slowly changing chaotic system with patterns that are never repeated in exactly the same way. Inferences as to the causes of the sunspot cycle patterns can be made by looking at the model’s terms and relating them to aspects of the Tidal Torque theory and, possibly, Jovian magnetic field interactions.

In the Journal of Geophysical Research a study by Goelzer et al. appeared in December 2013 and also foresees a decline in solar activity.

What climatic consequences could this have? In our book “The Neglected Sun” we assume that temperatures could be two tenths of a degree lower by 2030 as a result, which would mean warming getting postponed far into the future. Russian scientists foresee an even more dramatic situation, as described in Germany’s leading national daily Bild of April 4,2013:

AND NOW THIS! Russian scientist sees next approaching ice age
It will get colder beginning in 2014 +++ Human migration cannot be ruled out”

Just a month earlier The Voice of Russia reported:

Planet on the verge of an ice age
Russian scientists are predicting that a little ice age will begin in 2014. They refute the claims of global warming and describe them as a marketing trick. Global warming is indeed happening. The earth has been continuously getting warmer since the second half of the 18th century, the start of the Industrial Revolution. This is why the process gets connected to an anthropogenic impact. Mankind increased CO2 emissions, which caused a greenhouse effect. But Russian scientist Vladimir Baschkin categorically disagrees. He claims that the climatic changes have a cyclic character and are not at all related in any way to human activities. Together with his colleague, Rauf Galiullin, of the Institute for Fundamental Problems of Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, he points out that the current warming is merely the continuation of the post Little Ice Age and that, measured on a geological scale, the occurrence of a new ice age is approaching.”

Continue reading at Voice of Russia.

Other scientists share this view as well, among them Professor Cliff Ollier of the School of Earth and Environmental Studies at the University of Western Australia:

Professor Cliff Ollier of the School of Earth and Environmental Studies, the University of Western Australia, recently presented a paper in Poznan, Poland,  in which he described the sun as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases.”There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling.”

H.S. Ahluwalia of the Department of Physics & Astronomy of the University of New Mexico sees it in similar way, as he describes in an article in the journal of Advances in Space Research in February 2014. Ahluwalia expects a Dalton-type minimum and reminds us that the last minimum of this kind back around 1810 resulted in a cold period.

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Sebastian Lüning will be one of the speakers at the upcoming 9th International Conference on Climate Change in Las Vegas July 7-9. See following 30-second video for more information:

The conference is sponsored by the Heartland Institute.

 

42 responses to “Flurry Of Scientists, Recent Peer-Reviewed Papers, Warning Of Approaching Little Ice Age”

  1. Edward.

    So many things I could say and God knows what would happen in Europe, in the likely event that, a major volcanic eruption were to occur in Iceland in the next few years.

    We could be, actually are approaching a ‘perfect storm’, where energy supply will be intermittent and rationed because of the Europe wide and ridiculous charge to replace reliable and well tested technology. Replacement of said tried and tested – ie fossil fueled and nuclear power generation – ignored in order to, construct renewable boondoggles – which in no way can they be any sort of substitute and worst of all: which cannot provide base load electricity.

    As the sun ‘cools off’. Thus, Europe is left to the vicissitudes of the green idiocy and at the mercy of a capricious mother earth and all of the terrible things she might unleash – in more ways than one, a ‘perfect storm’ indeed.

    It’s time to get praying and lay in a very big store of wood, get a generator – if you can. In the near future, for life is about to get very black.

  2. Recovering Lutheran

    AGW: is there anything it can’t do?

  3. Mike

    The letter “W” in the Welsh language is pronounced as “oo” so we can say from A Welsh perspective (why not) that our Recovering Lutheran is asking about the God of Agoo and what he can or can’t do.

    First of all the God of Agoo is a member of the ancient gods known collectively as elohim, a general name for god and also applied to the God of the Bible. Unlike the God of the Bible who was consistent in his message (if time is taken to understand it) the god Agoo promotes inconsistency inconsistently as a virtue.

    As the God of the Bible dislikes lukewarmness, preferring hot or cold, Agoo prefers hot, unless of course it is cold hot, or hot cold.

    Agoo’s ability to do anything is limited only by the imagination of his (or is it hers?, or a new gender perhaps?) followers. However, the results of all actions have to be measured using the same rules of inconsistency, so if Agoo makes something soft, if may be hard to us who don’t follow the faith. If we see one of Agoo’s creations as green, it might actually be red, but only the faithful would really know it.

    So in summary, Agoo is omniscient, omnipresent and omnipotent, and can give you anything you ask for without compromise under the banner of inconsistency.

    Just a note, not for anyone to read, only for me to put it somewhere. I have a daughter called Anna who is 28 today. She was born during the FA cup final between Liverpool and Everton in 1986 (in hospital). I have not seen or heard from her since she was 13, due to the workings of Agoo I guess, but I remember her especially today as my wonderful daughter.

  4. William Connolley

    You promised “Recent Peer-Reviewed Papers, Warning Of Approaching Little Ice Age”. But you haven’t provided any. The papers discuss the prospects for the Sun – fair enough, but that’s not what your headline promises. “Russian scientist sees next approaching ice age” is from Bild. “Planet on the verge of an ice age” is from Voice of Russia. “Professor Cliff Ollier” talked at a conference – again, that’s not a peer-reviewed paper.

    “No Tricks”, eh? But dishonest headlines.

    1. DirkH

      ““No Tricks”, eh? But dishonest headlines.”

      Go away, preach to your green sheeple at the wikipedia.

      1. William Connolley

        The sheeple are you lot. Our host here puts up headlines – it really doesn’t matter what’s in them, not one of you is capable of think about them – and you all go “yeah! Al Gore is fat”. Come on, read what he’s written, actually think about it. Why is it that there are *no* peer-reviewed papers predicting what our host would so desperately like to see? Why won’t his vision come true?

        1. DirkH

          William Connolley
          11. Mai 2014 at 10:02 | Permalink | Reply
          “The sheeple are you lot. Our host here puts up headlines – it really doesn’t matter what’s in them, not one of you is capable of think about them – and you all go “yeah! Al Gore is fat”.”

          Well actually I didn’t; you’re a liar.

          And your nerves are wearing thin; you answered me for the first time.

    2. Ed Caryl

      Winston,
      This list from your favorite web site should get your reading list started.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

      1. William Connolley

        Well, we could talk about that if you, but are you sure you wouldn’t like to talk about what this post is actually about? If you’re admitting that I’m right and our host is wrong, I could see why you’d want to change the subject.

        Can *you* find the peer-reviewed article that justifies this posts headline? No? But too timid to admit it? Come on, be brave.

        1. Ed Caryl
        2. Ed Caryl
        3. Ed Caryl
          1. William Connolley

            Easterbrook is drivel, and that doesn’t look P-R to me.

            PRP is a joke (I can’t tell if that one is from the original joke, or the even less serious continuation). From the title “A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr” I take it to be about the past 1kyr, and so even if taken at face value doesn’t support what you want.

            Abdusamatov? Come on. From that respected climate journal “Kinematics and Physics of Celestial Bodies”? “The journal is published under the auspices of the Division of Physics and Astronomy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine”. But doe it have any kind of P-R standards? It looks very dubious. And the paper is from 2012 so hardly counts as recent.

        4. Ed Caryl
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  7. William Connolley

    > it’s not an error. I’ve explained it.

    Oh well, no honesty from you. I’ll give up on you, but I’m still curious if any of your “sheeple” are capable of thought.

    > Sally Fallon

    Never heard of her. If you care to present a link, I’ll look.

  8. Larry Pierce

    Here is a peer reviewed paper that says we are headed for cold weather: .9 to 1.8 C colder in the northern hemisphere.
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000417

  9. William Connolley

    > leading scientists

    Oh come on. That’s a joke. McC and Beer are, but they aren’t saying anything useful to you. All the people you’re relying are, to be polite, not exactly leading. and the ones you’re relying on most aren’t P-R.

    > For example, 123 papers here: http://notrickszone.com/2013/10/11/gross-scientific-negligence-ipcc-ignored-huge-body-of-peer-reviewed-literature-showing-suns-clear-impact/

    Self-citation is great, but you need to read what you’re writing. I looked at the first 5, then got bored. None of them predict future cooling, as you claimed. Have another go: sift your mighty list down into papers that are actually relevant.

  10. Walter H. Schneider

    William Connolley,

    Your frustration is showing through. It must irk you to no end that you cannot re-write this blog to the same extent you re-wrote Wikipedia.

  11. William Connolley

    > International Conference on Climate Change in Las Vegas July 7-9? There you can speak directly to Dr. Lüning

    Why would I go to the Heartland silliness? If Dr Luning wants to talk to me, well, he can do that here, or he can email me, or he can comment at my blog. Why we’d both fly off to another continent to talk I don’t know.

    > Your frustration is showing through.

    I admit, I’m frustrated by your disinclination to think, and your failure to notice the obvious flaws in our host’s post.

    > http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000417

    Well done. That one is actually on-topic and in a sane P-R journal (though JASTP does tend to over-emphasise the role of the sun, see if you can guess why). The paper is wrong (this is the same “keep correlating things until a relationship shows up” we’ve seen before; its invalid) but that’s a different matter.

    1. Phil McCracken

      You seem extremely irritated by this
      article, Mr. “Connolley”, why is that?

      You are almost rabid, I’d say.
      Ranting and raving and seemingly
      deliberately misunderstanding,
      and misconstruing what people
      have written.

      Your “green gills” are showing.

      Sadly for you, your reputation precedes you.

    2. DirkH

      William Connolley
      11. Mai 2014 at 20:28 | Permalink | Reply
      “both fly off to another continent to talk I don’t know.”

      Connolley is a Green party member.
      Connolley, why did Maurice Strong cart the green NGO’s to Stockholm in 1972?
      Why again to Rio in 1992?
      Why is there an annual climate shindig with all the excellencies called COP by the UN?

      I totally agree with you that all these parasitic polluting events should immediately be scrapped. Together with the parasites.

      “Well done. That one is actually on-topic and in a sane P-R journal”

      As Connolley doesn’t know much, he probably also doesn’t know that “PR” was the name Eddie Bernays used for his craft after the name “propaganda” fell in disfavor. You can read up about Bernays in your beloved website, Connolley.

  12. Dr Norman Page

    The IPCC forecasters are still trying to scare the public into continuing to fund their failed and futile modeling approach to forecasting and disappointingly most contrarians (empirical realists ) still continue to argue using the same basic approach as the IPCC but just come up with lower numbers for the future warming and reduced climate sensitivity. The realist scientists themselves need take on board the fact that the Modeling technique is inherently useless for climate forecasting because models with such a large number of variables simply cannot be computed or indeed even initialized with sufficient precision and accuracy.
    see
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvhipLNeda4

    The IPCC itself has been quite open about this and in practice the modelers have known for some time that their models have no skill in forecasting and have indeed said so in the WG1 reports. The IPCC AR4 WG1 science section actually acknowledges this fact. Section IPCC AR4 WG1 8.6 deals with forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity. The conclusions are in section 8.6.4 which deals with the reliability of the projections. It concludes:
    “Moreover it is not yet clear which tests are critical for constraining the future projections, consequently a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climate change feedbacks and climate sensitivity has yet to be developed”
    What could be clearer. The IPCC in 2007 said that we don’t even know what metrics to put into the models to test their reliability.- i.e. we don’t know what future temperatures will be and we can’t calculate the climate sensitivity to CO2.This also begs a further question of what erroneous assumptions (e.g. that CO2 is the main climate driver) went into the “plausible” models to be tested anyway. This means that the successive SPM uncertainty estimates take no account of the structural uncertainties in the models and that almost the entire the range of model outputs may well lay outside the range of the real world future climate variability.
    The entire IPCC output falls into the not even wrong category and provides no basis for serious discussion yet again most anti alarmist bloggers and almost all the MSM pundits continue to refer to the IPCC forecasts as though they had some connection to the real world.

    A different non modeling approach must be used for forecasting . Forecasts of the timing and amount of a possible coming cooling based on the 60 and 1000 year natural quasi-periodicities in the temperature and using the neutron count and 10Be record as the best proxy for solar activity are presented in several posts at
    http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

    For details see the pertinent posts listed below.
    10/30/12. Hurricane Sandy-Extreme Events and Global Cooling
    11/18/12 Global Cooling Climate and Weather Forecasting
    1/22/13 Global Cooling Timing and Amount
    2/18/13 Its the Sun Stupid – the Minor Significance of CO2
    4/2/13 Global Cooling Methods and Testable Decadal Predictions.
    5/14/13 Climate Forecasting for Britain’s Seven Alarmist Scientists and for UK Politicians.
    7/30/13 Skillful (so far) Thirty year Climate Forecast- 3 year update and Latest Cooling Estimate.
    10/9/13 Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5 and the Coming Cooling.

    The capacity of the establishment IPCC contributing modelers and the academic science community in general to avoid the blindingly obvious natural periodicities in the temperature record is truly mind blowing.
    It is very obvious- simply by eye balling the last 150 years of temperature data that there is a 60 year natural quasi periodicity at work. Sophisticated statistical analysis actually doesn’t add much to eyeballing the time series. The underlying trend can easily be attributed to the 1000 year quasi periodicity. See Figs 3 and 4 at
    http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2013/10/commonsense-climate-science-and.html

    The 1000 year period looks pretty good at 10000,9000,8000,7000, 2000.1000. and 0
    This would look interesting I’m sure on a wavelet analysis with the peak fading out from 7000- 3000.
    The same link also provides an estimate of the timing and extent of possible future cooling using the recent peak as a synchronous peak in both the 60 and 1000 year cycles and the neutron count as supporting evidence of a coming cooling trend as it appears the best proxy for solar “activity” while remaining agnostic as to the processes involved.
    I suppose the problem for the academic establishment is that this method really only requires a handful of people with some insight ,understanding and the necessary background of knowledge and experience as opposed to the army of computer supported modelers who have dominated the forecasting process until now.
    There has been no net warming for 16 years and the earth entered a cooling trend in about 2003 which will last for another 20 years and perhaps for hundreds of years beyond that. see

    ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

    The current weather patterns in the UK and USA are typical of those developed by the more meridional path of the jet stream on a cooling earth. The Fagan book “The Little Ice Age ” is a useful guide from the past to the future. The frequency of these weather patterns, e.g. for the USA the PDO related drought in California and the Polar Vortex excursions to the South will increase as cooling continues
    The views of the establishment scientists in the USA and of the UK’s CSA and Met office’s leaders in this matter post AR5 reveals their continued refusal to recognize and admit the total failure of the climate models in the face of the empirical data of the last 16 years. It is past time for the climate community to move to another approach based on pattern recognition in the temperature and driver data and also on the recognition of the different frequencies of different regional weather patterns on a cooling ( more meridional jet stream ) and warming (more latitudinal jet stream ) world.
    All of the warming since the LIA can easily be accommodated within the 1000 year natural cycle without any significant contribution from anthropogenic CO2.
    The whole UNFCCC travelling circus has no empirical basis for its operations and indeed for its existence depending as it does on the predictions of the inherently useless climate models.. The climate is much too complex to model but can be predicted by simply knowing where we are in the natural quasi -cycles

  13. Ross McLeod

    I never cease to be amazed how the “true believers” only ultimate tactic is vilification – “Easterbrook is drivel” for example.

    There is one simple fact that is inconvenient for the “evangelical” but acknowledged and accepted – indisputable even – global warming has again been observed to exhibit cyclic behaviour since the last super El-Nino of 1998.

    (I remember 1977 as representing a significant change in our local climate – 1974 saw large floods and from 1977 the rainfall decreased markedly – Easterbrook cites this as a change time in the PDO)

    The recent global warming “pause” has occurred during the time when China surpassed the USA as the world’s biggest emitter and combined with India emissions are increasing faster than ever – YET the temperature record shows no global warming at all and there may well have been a slight decrease.

    It is also interesting that heat waves are now routinely cited and the “average” is now ignored as it is either unchanged for about 17 years or perhaps on the way down.

    There has always been severe heat wave and drought – perhaps the most famous the “dust bowl” era of the USA in the 1930’s when virtually the population of a State was forced to migrate to avoid starvation – The Grapes of Wrath chronicles the misery of this exodus.

    Completely unrelated to anthropogenic causes though !

    How this plays out no-one really knows but there is currently a major disconnect between CO2 emissions and a relentless upward swing in temperature at a time when the emission rate is the highest mankind has ever achieved.

    That is significant, acknowledged and peer reviewed.

    I also wonder how significant peer review is anymore.

    The recent exposure of the remnants of a forest which was crushed by the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska between 1000 – 2000 years ago demonstrates that the current warming is NOT unprecedented. The trees exposed were obviously very old and thus the area was significantly warmer than today for centuries.

    If warming were to continue as the IPCC predict it will be centuries before this forest returns. Even our great, great, great grandchildren are unlikely to witness this forest’s return in the form it once was.

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