German DWD Weather Service: “You Cannot Craft A Climate Statistic From One Singular Extreme Weather Situation”

The intense but short heat wave that struck parts of Central Europe earlier this month created quite a bit of hysteria among some German activist climatologists and most of the media.

For example IPCC climatologist Mojib Latif attributed the heat and severe thunderstorms to global warming. Stefan Rahmstorf tried to hint this may be the case, but had to concede there was no real data to back it up.

DWD dismisses connection to climate warming

Now the DWD German Weather Service has made it’s opinion public on the matter. At his climate blog at online flagship daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, journalist Joachim Müller-Jung writes, “It does not suffice to attribute the heat records to climate change” and he quotes the official DWD spokesman Gerhard Lux:

It may suit our imaginative world of the consequences of climate warming, but we are sticking to the principle that you cannot craft a climate statistic from one singular extreme weather situation.”

We’ll remember that when the next storm or hurricane hits. Good to see that Germany’s national weather service, the DWD, is keeping its sanity and dismisses the link between singular extreme weather events and climate change.

Heat records show no climate trend

Müller-Jung then adds:

The hot ‘African air’ produced record temperatures exclusively in southern Germany, already in Hessen or North Rhine Westphalia [Central Germany] there was not a single heat record. From heat records, which happen every few years and thus are too seldom as a whole, it still is not possible to discern a climate trend.”

In northwest Germany where I live, the temperature did not even reach the 30°C mark. So the intense heat was not only short, but it was rather local/regional as well.

Lux does note, however, that the frequency of heavy rainfall events (more than 30 mm) has risen. (That may have more to do with decadal cycles).

When asked why journalists have the feeling storms are more frequent, Lux says it is because people are far better networked today and every storm gets instantly communicated everywhere.

In earlier times no one gave a rat’s ass about a storm way out in East Hicksville, except the Hicksvillers. By the time the dramatic Hicksville pictures reached the audience in other places, it was already old news. That’s not the case today.

 

5 responses to “German DWD Weather Service: “You Cannot Craft A Climate Statistic From One Singular Extreme Weather Situation””

  1. DirkH

    Fun with highly subsidised German renewable madness:

    Company WindMW organizes tourist ship tours to their completed offshore windpard off Helgoland. Tourists get to make photos of … brand new wind turbines that don’t move.

    Problem: Windpark has no connection. Turbines can’t stand still for long periods due to corrosion danger. Solution: Burn 22,000 liter / month of Diesel in a generator to make them turn once in a while. Well we don’t know how much they burn there but 22,000 liter was the number during the 6 months that the offshore windpark Riffgat needed it until it was connected to the grid.

    http://www.abendblatt.de/region/article128879409/Zeit-dass-sich-vor-Helgoland-endlich-was-dreht.html

    For 1.5 years now the electricity bill contains a contribution to a slush fund for the compensation of such non producing offshore windparks. I think it’s a cent a kWh.
    (Article doesn’t mention that; makes it sound as if the operators or the grid operator carry a significant risk; they don’t; this is a green oligarchy; not capitalism.)

  2. John F. Hultquist

    Thanks, Pierre.

    In the beginning of the global warming ramp-up to CAGW hysteria the concept seemed to be forward looking – that is, out about 2070 or so we would see significant weather changes and soon could expect doom. That didn’t get the activists what they wanted so doom-time was shortened to about 20 years, then “real soon,” and then Now!
    My guess is not many serious scientists bought into this. They were not quick to dismiss it either. They do have work to do and correcting Al Gore, Nye, and Weepy Bill McKippen is not part of their contracts. Also, many work for governments that have ideological issues.
    Gerhard Lux seems to have his head on straight.

  3. mwhite

    “You cannot craft a climate statistic from one singular extreme weather situation”

    Oh yes you can, but only when it’s a heatwave.

  4. A C Osborn

    Sorry for the Off topic but keep an eye on Jo Nova’s forum, she and her hubby are issueing an important new paper on Climate Change.
    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/big-news-part-i-historic-development-new-solar-climate-model-coming/