Forget Global Cooling Predictions…It’s Already Happening! Global Temperature Falling More Than A Decade!

Climate scientists on both sides of the debate agree on one thing: the earth’s surface and atmosphere have (unexpectedly) stopped warming; there’s been no temperature increase in over 17 years and counting.

While global warming scientists insist the pause is only temporary and that warming will resume in earnest sometime in the future (once the missing heat comes out of hiding), other scientists are very skeptical. Today a growing number of distinguished scientists all over the globe believe the earth will be cooling due to the forces of natural cycles that have recently come into play.

Yet as many scientists are making forecasts of cooling, there’s one fact that seems to have escaped them: the datasets of the world’s leading climate data institutes clearly show that planetary cooling is already taking place and has been happening for over a decade.

2002_Cooling

Chart source: www.woodfortrees.org.

Danish solar scientist Henrik Svensmark recently declared: “Global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning.” The cold reality, however, is that the cooling actually started 12 years ago!

There are more signs other than temperature readings that show global cooling is in full swing. Antarctica has just set a new record positive sea ice anomaly. Global sea ice has been mostly above average for a year and half, flying in the face of stunned scientists who warned just 5 years ago that the Arctic could soon be ice-free in the summertime. Moreover Asia, Europe and North America have been hard hit by a string of unexpectedly harsh winters.

So how cold is it going to get and for how long?

Although a large number of scientists agree on cooling, they differ widely on how much and for how long.

Geologist and climate researcher Sebastian Lüning of Germany in a just released video forecasts a global cooling of 0.2° by 2030, before it starts to warm up again. However, many scientists see this as too mild of a forecast. Russian solar physicist Habibullo Abdussamatov, for example, predicts another Little Ice Age by 2055. Also Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory claims we “could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.”

Long list of experts

At his Climate Depot website, Marc Morano has a list of a number of renowned scientists who believe the data are clear on what’s ahead.

Prominent geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook warns that “global cooling is almost a slam dunk” for up to 30 years or more. The Australian Astronomical Society warns of global cooling as the sun’s activity “significantly diminishes”.

The reason for the cooling? Scientists agree that it’s natural solar and oceanic cycles overpowering the overhyped effects of greenhouse trace-gas CO2.

 

37 responses to “Forget Global Cooling Predictions…It’s Already Happening! Global Temperature Falling More Than A Decade!”

  1. David Appell

    Why are you using HadCRUT3 instead of 4? Because it has a smaller trend?

    And where is your test for statistical significance?

    11 year trends are rarely statistically significant — even with simple lag-1 autocorrelation, HadCRUT’s 11-year trends have been significant only 30% of the time:
    http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2014/06/more-on-significance-of-temperature.html

    1. Bruce of Newcastle

      So temperature is not falling David, its the melting point of ice that’s rising eh?

      What is easier to adjust? Two million square kilometres of ice or a temperature dataset on a computer hard drive which is adjusted daily anyway?

      http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

      More ice means cold.

      1. David Appell

        Arctic sea ice is melting 10 times faster than the growth of sea ice in the Antarctic.

        The Earth is now losing over a trillion tonnes of ice a year:

        http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2014/05/how-fast-is-planet-losing-ice.html

        1. DirkH

          Confusing PIOMAS with observations again?
          PIOMAS, like all climate science models, is corrected a posteriori and has never shown predictive skill.

          1. David Appell

            “Without models, there are no data.”

            None of the ice volume (or mass) numbers come from observations, but from models. So do all global surface temperatures, satellite measurements of the atmosphere, sea ice extent, and everything else.

        2. Moose

          Luckily Antarctica is picking up ice nicely:
          http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/29/antarctica-sets-new-record-for-sea-ice-area/

          And the Arctic is recovering since 2005:

          http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

          Looks like its getting colder as ice is growing again.

          1. David Appell

            And the Arctic is recovering since 2005

            Totally false. The Arctic has lost about 3.4 Kkm3 of sea ice since 2005.

  2. Peter Whale

    Have we one the bet against rob yet?

  3. R2Dtoo

    Appell- where are your tests of significance? Where is your “proof” that CO2 is greater than natural variation? What is your take on the data “adjusting” that is finally being exposed? I would like to see a complete list of scientists who think cooling is inevitable- my guess is it would be impressive.

    1. David Appell

      If you don’t know why it’s known that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere is manmade, you should take some time and learn. The 5AR lists several reasons in IPCC 5AR WG1 Ch6.3.2.3 pp 493-494.

      1. DirkH

        IPCC; that was this congregation of juvenile NGO apparatschiks, right?

  4. David Appell

    Using HadCRUT4, the statistical significance of the trend since Jan 2003 is -0.018 C/decade, but the confidence level is only 51%. Hence, no “cooling.”

    Only 27% if you use an ARMA(1,1) model for the noise.

    1. DirkH

      We’re not using HadCRUT4, thank you very much. Too many imaginative stations in there.

      1. David Appell

        We’re not using HadCRUT4, thank you very much. Too many imaginative stations in there.

        And you think HadCRUT3 is different? Face it, you’re just using it because (like using RSS over UAH) it has a smaller trend.

    2. stan stendera

      Mr. Arrpell please shut up the nonsense.

  5. John F. Hultquist

    David Appell says: Hence, no “cooling.”
    Given the circumstances, is that about the same as no “warming?”
    Seemingly so.
    So exactly what is that extra CO2 doing?

  6. Ed Caryl

    It looks like the “team” has made a substitution, Appell for Connelly.

  7. Nicola Scafetta

    Yes,

    I have updated my temperature icon.

    My 2011 model is still forecasting well the temperature, after all.

    See below or visit my web-site t the bottom

    http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/

  8. John F. Hultquist

    comment in spam?

    David Appell says: Hence, no “cooling.”
    Given the circumstances, is that about the same as no “warming?”
    Seemingly so.
    So exactly what is that extra CO2 doing?

  9. Don B

    If global temperatures were rising at 0.2 C per decade, as IPCC predicted, does anyone believe Appell would be quibling about statistical metrics?

    1. Kurt in Switzerland

      Don,

      If you look at Hansen et al 1988, you’ll see that for Scenario A, the ‘global surface air temperature’ was supposed to rise about one degree in 30 y (0.33ºC per decade). For Scenario B, the temperature was supposed to rise about one degree in 40 y (0.25ºC per decade).

      Scenario A represented Business as Usual (BAU) – CO2 emissions growth rate of 1.5% per annum. (It also represented high CFC emissions growth, which were estimated to have a second order effect after CO2 — about 1/4 the forcing of CO2).

      Scenario B represented CO2 emissions growth rate of 1.0% per annum from 1990, 0.5% per annum from 1995 and 0.0% per annum from 2000 onwards (so it was ‘wishful thinking’ in terms of “Climate Policy”).

      Scenario C represented CO2 emissions being radically reduced, such that atmospheric CO2 concentration stabilised at 368 ppmV!

      But actual CO2 emissions growth have been 2% per annum (33% greater than for Scenario A)!

      Since Hansen pushed his theory during the half-cycle of temperature increase, he looked and felt pretty smug until the end of the century. Then the growth rate stopped (as the 30y half-cycle downturn was about to begin). The rate of temperature rise since 1980 is now at about 0.13ºC per decade (and falling).

      Not once, to the best of my knowledge, has Hansen revisited his original forecast. Ordinary science would require this. Climate Science does not, for some reason.

      Suggesting that “Climate Science” had forecast a temperature rise rate of 0.2ºC per decade would be far too kind, IMHO. But your point is correct: Appell, believing that an increase in temperature is just around the corner, fails to accept that the plateau is anything but temporary.

      Kurt in Switzerland

      1. David Appell

        Hansen’s model was made 26 years ago, and since then models are considerably more inclusive of physical processes.

        The point of making models is to make better models, by comparing how your model does relative to observations. No model is ever going to be perfect, and uncertainities might not decrease much at all from here. And, since models solve a boundary value problem and not an initial value problem, their short-term projections are never worth much.

        As they say, “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

        1. DirkH

          “Hansen’s model was made 26 years ago, and since then models are considerably more inclusive of physical processes.”

          If models change so much over 26 years, then their predictions will change as well.

          So what you’re saying is it would be lunacy to heed any prediction from a current model about things 100 years in the future, as the model will be obsolete within a quarter of the time.

          I fully agree, David.

  10. David Johnson

    Appell’s remarks seem to be tinged with a sense of desperation.

    1. DirkH

      Well, of course. He’s a…
      …desperado.

  11. A C Osborn

    If this article has it right then the world is in for a bit more Cooling.
    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/global-warming-apocalypse-daily-update.html
    “Temperatures at the center of Greenland are plunging at the rate of -.88C/yr or 8.8C per decade, according to the Wolfram Alpha analysis of all available data from station BGUQ, the station closest to the center of Greenland with the highest “inferred reliability”:”

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  13. Trend Lines Show Cooling Since 2002 » Pirate's Cove

    […] (No Tricks Zone) Climate scientists on both sides of the debate agree on one thing: the earth’s surface and atmosphere have (unexpectedly) stopped warming; there’s been no temperature increase in over 17 years and counting. […]

  14. Dr. J.J. Paijmans

    can somebody explain to me the meaning of the expression “cherry picking”?

    Paai

    1. David Appell

      Or, when calculating trends, choosing a certain starting time because it gives you the result you want. (Just like this calculation.)

  15. Dr. J.J. Paijmans

    Thank you, Gosselin 🙂

    Paai