IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif Sees North Atlantic Cooling Over Next Decade…Confirms Oceans Play Crucial Role

Step by step warmist scientists are no longer able to deny the fact that powerful natural oscillations do play a far greater role in climate than what they were allowed in climate models.

The GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel quietly issued a press release last week claiming that its scientists had found a method to improve climate forecasts and to tell how temperatures develop over the North Atlantic.

NASA_IgorJulia-GOES_full

GEOMAR scientists see North Atlantic cooling over next decade. Photo: NASA

For the strength of a hurricane season, precipitation in West Africa, or winters in Central Europe – the surface temperatures of the North Atlantic are a decisive factor for all these developments. Geomar is realizing that they do indeed naturally fluctuate over periods of decades, in sync with the climate of the adjacent land regions.

A reliable forecast of North Atlantic conditions had been elusive because of a lack of recorded data. Now the climate scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel describe in the international journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters the mechanism of these decadal oscillations of the North Atlantic surface temperatures and show that these have a high forecasting potential.

Climate “subject to natural oscillation”

For the climate and also for the weather in Europe, processes in the North Atlantic play a major role. The Gulf Stream and surface temperatures of the North Atlantic have profound impacts on the neighboring continents. The GEOMAR press release writes:

All these processes are subject to natural oscillations that play out over years, decades, or even centuries. ‘Concrete datasets often go back only a few decades,’ says climate scientist Professor Dr. Mojib Latif of GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. ‘That’s why it’s very difficult to assess oscillations over longer time domains and to differentiate them from changes caused by man.“

Suddenly we see an admission from Prof. Latif here that natural factors do matter – and especially in models.

Reliable simulation for the coming decade

The press release then writes that the team of modeling experts at GEOMAR have succeeded in developing a “reliable simulation of the surface temperatures in the North Atlantic since 1900 and that allows prognoses until the end of the coming decade.”

That’s wonderful. Now we are all very curious what their new model foresees for the next ten years.

Keep reading to find out!

Latif admits models have been wrong

Professor Latif elaborates further on their new model, as opposed to the existing ones:

That’s new. Particular about simulation is that the existing climate models have deviated strongly from the surface temperatures.”

In a nutshell: The other models so far have been worthless.

The press release describes the North Atlantic Oscillation and its important influence on continental Europe’s weather and how the scientists have data on this going back to the middle of the 19th century. This allows the modellers to reconstruct North Atlantic surface temperature oscillations in a climate model and to make a prognoses for the future. Latif and his team suggest that the Gulf Stream plays a huge role on the NAO and that Europe’s weather is governed in large part by these oceanic cycles. Latif explains.

The coupling to the NAO allows a reliable reconstruction of the North Atlantic currents between the year 1900 and 2010, even though concrete data goes back only to 2004. The oscillations in the ocean currents mainly govern the surface temperatures, thus allowing them to be derived and even be calculated five years in advance.”

Model foresees “negative trend”.

So what does their model see? Latif tells, doing his very best to disguise what warmists certainly dread and do not want to hear (my emphasis):

Our model tells us that the phase with a rather high surface temperatures in the North Atlantic will continue also over the coming decade, however with a lightly negative trend.”

The paper’s abstract presents the prognosis as follows:

The present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until the end of the next decade, but with a negative tendency.”

That means “COOLING”!

A stunning conclusion by Latif, even in its disguised form. Just two and half years ago Fritz Vahrenholt’s and Sebastian Lüning’s book Die kalte Sonne (The Neglected Sun) reached the same conclusion. Back then Latif, in a lapse of professionalism, publicly belittled the two authors. Perhaps Latif is now ready to apologize, and/or at least next time read the book first before firing criticism at its authors.

Original paper:
Klöwer, M., M. Latif, H. Ding, R. J. Greatbatch, W. Park (2014): Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 406, 1-6, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2014.09.001.

11 responses to “IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif Sees North Atlantic Cooling Over Next Decade…Confirms Oceans Play Crucial Role”

  1. Henning Nielsen

    I am so scared! Man-made catastrophic global warming is coming to take me, with a slightly negative trend. That’s ba-a-a-d.

  2. Don B

    In August Andrew Revkin at the NY Times had a column exploring how the ocean cycles affect global temperatures. That is, from one paper, the Atlantic added to global temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s, but cooled since, during the hiatus, pause, whatever.

    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/a-closer-look-at-turbulent-oceans-and-greenhouse-heating/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

    Revkin naturally offered some of the usual activists the chance to comment, but still, for the NYT to publicly mention natural variability is an eye-opener.

  3. Graeme No.3

    1812 Napoleon retreats from Moscow due to increasing cold weather.
    2014 …

  4. Stephen Wilde

    Told you so:

    “Before it is safe to attribute a global warming or a global cooling effect to any other factor (CO2 in particular) it is necessary to disentangle the simultaneous overlapping positive and negative effects of solar variation, PDO/ENSO and the other oceanic cycles. Sometimes they work in unison, sometimes they work against each other and until a formula has been developed to work in a majority of situations all our guesses about climate change must come to nought.”

    from here:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/

    21/05/2008

    1. Ron

      You are absolutely correct. Even the ocean cycles aren’t exactly in sync, which poses a problem for climate forecasting. That, combined with solar cycles, are the main driver of our climate. Scientist completely missed the boat when they tried to attribute climate change to CO2. Perhaps this is why their models have failed so badly. But to admit the mistake would be disaster for funding their cause. Expect them to come at us rapid fire with more global warming scare tactics to try and secure as much funding as possible, before the masses figure it out. When they do these scientist are done, as no one will believe them anymore. Why fund something that no one can do anything about? It is depressing thinking about all the money wasted that could have gone to a better cause.

  5. DirkH

    The Dutch build solar panel bicycle lane. 70 meters of it. Cycling on glass. Not my favorite material to cycle on. Amortisation after 20 years. I guess the Dutch subsidize their solar panels as well. Don’t know whether they thought of dirt. Don’t think they’ll last that long. Big promises: In the future, with better materials, amortisation after 15 years might be possible.
    http://www.stern.de/wirtschaft/news/solar-radweg-in-holland-dieser-radweg-produziert-strom-2147206.html

  6. Edward.

    Apology……………………… from Latif, you’ve gotta be joking Pierre.

    Anyway, it’s about time they’re coming round to our way of thinking, we knew this stuff long ago, next he’ll be telling us that the sun has something to do with it……

    I wish, that, these alarmist ‘experts’ would all go and boil their heads now.

  7. Alan Poirier

    Hmm, a negative warming trend… how interesting. LOL

  8. Bob Tisdale

    “The present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until the end of the next decade, but with a negative tendency.”

    Hmm. Does that mean after a decade we’ll be entering the “cool phase” of the AMO, which, in turn, would mean another couple of decades where the surface of the North Atlantic is not contributing to global warming?

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    […] Gosselin at NoTrickZone provided an introduction to a recently published paper in his post IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif Sees North Atlantic Cooling Over Next Decade…Confirms Oceans Play Cruci…. The paper is Klöwer et al. (2014) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction […]

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    […] Gosselin at NoTrickZone provided an introduction to a recently published paper in his post IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif Sees North Atlantic Cooling Over Next Decade…Confirms Oceans Play Cruci…. The paper is Klöwer et al. (2014) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction […]