Germany’s so-called Climate Consortium here has published a telling statement on this year’s “record warm year” in Germany and the reasons behind it. The Climate Consortium represents the collective position of all Germany’s scientific climate institutes.
Although the statement claims the record year “fits very well in the picture of a long-term global temperature increase” it now concedes major natural fluctuations in the climate system. Less than 3 years ago, on February 6, 2012, the same site posted the following in a hasty response to skeptic book Die kalte Sonne:
Pure natural fluctuations - such as changes in solar activity – on the other hand cannot be mainly responsible for the global warming of the past decades.”
What a difference a couple of years can make. Now they are blaming precisely these “natural fluctuations” for the “warming pause”.
Does anyone think they will do the honorable thing and admit that Die kalte Sonne authors Prof. Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning claims had merit after all? Professional and honorable scientists would certainly do so.
On the surface the latest German Climate Consortium statement does its best to give the façade of a warming planet, but in the text the truth comes gushing out. They write that at 10.3°C, Germany this year is set to break the previous 2000 and 2007 record (9.9°C) for the highest mean annual temperature since recording began in 1881. But the statement then cautions:
However, only the global mean temperature is a reliable indicator of global warming. If one takes the preliminary data for the months of January to November 2014 as a reference, then, since systematic data recording began, fourteen of the last fifteen warmest years occurred in the 21st century.
Moreover it is too early to talk about an end to the now 15-year long ‘warming pause’ and to assume an accelerating warming over the coming years. The global earth’s surface temperature is subject to year-to-year and decadal fluctuations. Only with the following years will it be possible to judge to what extent global warming of the earth’s surface will resume.”
This is an interesting statement. The scientists now concede that natural factors now dominate, and 2) that the upcoming years will answer the hotly debated question concerning the extent of man-made warming.
And we all thought it was all settled.
More concessions, admissions soon likely
Given this year has been an El Nino year, and that such years are normally followed by the cooler La Ninas, and that current solar activity cycle is well into its second half, temperatures over the next several years may lead to even more difficult concessions and admissions from warmist scientists. Expect the 2015 – 2022 period to make or break the AGW science.
90% of the missing heat absorbed by oceans
The German Climate Consortium statement continues:
In addition to solar radiation and volcanic activity, the oceans are a major climate factor. Recent scientific results show that the world’s oceans have stored 90 percent of the energy resulting in the climate system from greenhouse gases over the past 40 years. Phases of increased heat absorption alternate with phases of less absorption. Thus connected with this are fluctuations of the sea surface temperatures.”
As an example the Climate Consortium paper then describes the effects of El Nino on global surface temperatures.
Here we see again that they concede the oceans are a major driver of the surface temperatures – a real natural fluctuation. And although they chose not bring it up, it only logically follows that they would also have to concede that both the Pacific and the Atlantic Decadal Oscillations (PDO and AMO) are major drivers of the global surface temperatures. But they did not bring it up. Maybe it’s because admitting this would necessarily mean that the strong 1980 – 1998 warming would have to be in large part attributed to the oceans, and NOT Co2. That medicine seems to be still too bitter to swallow.
The statement adds:
The interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is an important reason for the decelerated rise in global surface temperatures since the start of the millennium.”
The German Climate Consortium statement ends by pointing out 2015 could also break a new global surface record (depending on the dataset one uses) because the impacts of an El Nino on global temperature lag by up to one year.
Warming now facing huge obstacles
Record or not, we can all safely assume that 2015 will be a warm one globally. But after that the warmists will really have to start sweating. Chances are good that a La Nina will follow, and its cooling effects will be further compounded by the death of SC24 and an AMO heading down towards its cold phase.
Right now it’s best to ignore all the day-to-day hollering and to just be patient. The next 8 years or so will decide the issue once and for all. After that there will be no excuses for not acting – in one direction or the other.