Climate Custers’ Last Stand…Top German Climate Scientists See No End To “Warming Pause”. Now Concede Oceans A “Major Climate Factor”

Germany’s so-called Climate Consortium here has published a telling statement on this year’s “record warm year” in Germany and the reasons behind it. The Climate Consortium represents the collective position of all Germany’s scientific climate institutes.

Although the statement claims the record year “fits very well in the picture of a long-term global temperature increase” it now concedes major natural fluctuations in the climate system. Less than 3 years ago, on February 6, 2012, the same site posted the following in a hasty response to skeptic book Die kalte Sonne:

Pure natural fluctuations ­- such as changes in solar activity – on the other hand cannot be mainly responsible for the global warming of the past decades.”

What a difference a couple of years can make. Now they are blaming precisely these “natural fluctuations” for the “warming pause”.

Yesterday’s statement was authored by Germany’s top appointed climate experts (some are well-known IPCC scientists): Jochen Marotzke, Paul Becker, Gernot Klepper, Mojib Latif and Monika Rhein.

Does anyone think they will do the honorable thing and admit that Die kalte Sonne authors Prof. Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning claims had merit after all? Professional and honorable scientists would certainly do so.

On the surface the latest German Climate Consortium statement does its best to give the façade of a warming planet, but in the text the truth comes gushing out. They write that at 10.3°C, Germany this year is set to break the previous 2000 and 2007 record (9.9°C) for the highest mean annual temperature since recording began in 1881. But the statement then cautions:

However, only the global mean temperature is a reliable indicator of global warming. If one takes the preliminary data for the months of January to November 2014 as a reference, then, since systematic data recording began, fourteen of the last fifteen warmest years occurred in the 21st century.

Moreover it is too early to talk about an end to the now 15-year long ‘warming pause’ and to assume an accelerating warming over the coming years. The global earth’s surface temperature is subject to year-to-year and decadal fluctuations. Only with the following years will it be possible to judge to what extent global warming of the earth’s surface will resume.”

This is an interesting statement. The scientists now concede that natural factors now dominate, and 2) that the upcoming years will answer the hotly debated question concerning the extent of man-made warming.

And we all thought it was all settled.

More concessions, admissions soon likely

Given this year has been an El Nino year, and that such years are normally followed by the cooler La Ninas, and that current solar activity cycle is well into its second half, temperatures over the next several years may lead to even more difficult concessions and admissions from warmist scientists. Expect the 2015 – 2022 period to make or break the AGW science.

90% of the missing heat absorbed by oceans

The German Climate Consortium statement continues:

In addition to solar radiation and volcanic activity, the oceans are a major climate factor. Recent scientific results show that the world’s oceans have stored 90 percent of the energy resulting in the climate system from greenhouse gases over the past 40 years. Phases of increased heat absorption alternate with phases of less absorption. Thus connected with this are fluctuations of the sea surface temperatures.”

As an example the Climate Consortium paper then describes the effects of El Nino on global surface temperatures.

Here we see again that they concede the oceans are a major driver of the surface temperatures – a real natural fluctuation. And although they chose not bring it up, it only logically follows that they would also have to concede that both the Pacific and the Atlantic Decadal Oscillations (PDO and AMO) are major drivers of the global surface temperatures. But they did not bring it up. Maybe it’s because admitting this would necessarily mean that the strong 1980 – 1998 warming would have to be in large part attributed to the oceans, and NOT Co2. That medicine seems to be still too bitter to swallow.

The statement adds:

The interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is an important reason for the decelerated rise in global surface temperatures since the start of the millennium.”

The German Climate Consortium statement ends by pointing out 2015 could also break a new global surface record (depending on the dataset one uses) because the impacts of an El Nino on global temperature lag by up to one year.

Warming now facing huge obstacles

Record or not, we can all safely assume that 2015 will be a warm one globally. But after that the warmists will really have to start sweating. Chances are good that a La Nina will follow, and its cooling effects will be further compounded by the death of SC24 and an AMO heading down towards its cold phase.

Right now it’s best to ignore all the day-to-day hollering and to just be patient. The next 8 years or so will decide the issue once and for all. After that there will be no excuses for not acting – in one direction or the other.

 

34 responses to “Climate Custers’ Last Stand…Top German Climate Scientists See No End To “Warming Pause”. Now Concede Oceans A “Major Climate Factor””

  1. Mervyn

    Even if the global average temperature heads into a discernible cooling phase, or even if earth goes into another “little ice age”, the global warming alarmists will simply dismiss it as just a symptom of dangerous man-made global warming. These climate change charlatans use propaganda not science to drive their agenda and they know the ignorant masses will just swallow it, especially when the UN and politicians promote such propaganda rubbish.

    1. Henning Nielsen

      True, they will never be converted to reality. But most people will then understand the nonsense, and ignore the alarmists even more. It is the politicians who decide if we shall follow the CAGW warnings, and if the voters don’t care anymore, nor will the politicians.

      1. Lawrie Ayres

        And when the politicians stop caring the money will stop flowing and these scientists will be scratching to find a job. I can’t wait.

      2. DirkH

        ” It is the politicians who decide if we shall follow the CAGW warnings, and if the voters don’t care anymore, nor will the politicians.”

        ALL bloc parties in all Western countries have some of their members being members of the arch warmist GLOBE international, headquartered in London in the same building as the Fabians; so warmism as a global control movement can only be overcome by wiping out the established political caste as a whole, not by switching from the red horse to the blue horse and back.

  2. oebele bruinsma

    This reformulation compared to a few years ago will sustain their koffers in the coming years, to some extent.

  3. ArndB

    The German Climate Consortium concedes major natural fluctuations in the climate system, which proves that they are far away of understanding climate, as “…. nothing happens in this world expect as allowed by the laws of physics”. Andrew A. Lacis, (NYT,17. Feb.2010; DOT EARTH by A. Revkin) ; http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/_Links-rand/54b_957_WorldFleetl.htm
    The term ‘natural fluctuation’ is best translated as: I do not know.

  4. Mike Spilligan

    As implied by Mervyn, above, the science is irrevelant to the People Who Control – the priority and objective is that they, and only they, continue to do so.

  5. R2Dtoo

    I agree that this is a major levelling of statements during the last three years. They have not given up, but they are tempering their prognosis and leaving the door open for a longer plateau in temperatures. You may well be correct in saying the next seven years will tell the tale. Politically, however, we have to survive the massive push to tie things up in Paris next year. The USA has taken the lead, and Obama/Kerry are carrying the load for the UN. Hopefully the agenda can be stalled long enough to let the data do the talking. Keeping us informed about what is happening in Europe is a great gift: thank you.

    1. Henning Nielsen

      Paris will be a new Copenhagen. Look at the NGOs, they are all very pessimistic about the outcome. Nothing of any importance will be decided, it will be the same story once again, the recycled mummy of global climate agreement.

      China is out of it, they can increase their emissions as much as they like, India has stated clearly that they willnot follow any UN rulings, USA can already claim that they have reduced their emissions more than most others, due to their fracking. Only the EU remains. But they will be very happy to put the blame on others, and so get out of their 40% commitment.

      But of course it will be very important for the global climate to have a couple of weeks in the city of light, for all the delegates from climate-stricken countries. I wonder what Greenpeace will destroy in Paris? Napoleon’s tomb?

      1. DirkH

        Henning Nielsen
        20. Dezember 2014 at 09:14 | Permalink | Reply
        “Only the EU remains. But they will be very happy to put the blame on others, and so get out of their 40% commitment.”

        You imply that the EU Kommissars act in the interest of Europe. But they have never done so in the past. They are implementing someone else’s agenda.

  6. Graeme No.3

    Their idea of science is a press release.

    Perhaps we should adopt their tactics and call them Pausers? Or perhaps Solar or Reality Deniers?

  7. Stephen Richards

    There will be no global cooling as long as the fall in global temperature remains within adjustable bounds.

    So far it has been adjusted by 3F but room for more. Ask Gav.

  8. Mindert Eiting

    ‘Recent scientific results show that the world’s oceans have stored 90 percent of the energy resulting in the climate system from greenhouse gases over the past 40 years.’

    What recent results show that this extremely complex sentence is true?

  9. Stephen Wilde

    See here:

    http://www.newclimatemodel.com/the-real-link-between-solar-energy-ocean-cycles-and-global-temperature/

    “Having observed the apparent failure of the models with their speculative CO2 component and having seen the relative success of the solar and astronomic influences at anticipating real world changes I have written this article to draw attention to what I consider to be the underlying real world process of global temperature change. Global temperature is controlled quite precisely (although it is difficult to calculate) by solar energy modulated by a number of overlapping and interlinked oceanic cycles each operating on different time scales and being of varying intensities, sometimes offsetting one another and sometimes complementing one another.”

    Published by Stephen Wilde May 21, 2008

  10. Rog Tallbloke

    “What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably …”

    Tommy Wills, Swansea University to the mailing list for tree-ring data forum ITRDB, 28 Mar 2007 (email 1682)

  11. JB

    Some years ago a couple of pranksters started a petition calling for the banning of hydrogen monoxide. It seems it is dangerous if inhaled, is found in 100% of all carcinomas, it reduces the effectiveness of automobile brakes and so on. At least one politician in New Zealand didn’t get the irony and called for the banning of hydrogen monoxide. It just shows how easily non savvy politicians can be fooled by words. The carbon dioxide scare is the same, a hoax concocted by pranksters and believed by the usual non savvy politicians.

    1. Henning Nielsen

      That was a good joke, in Cancun I believe. And many signed the protest list.

  12. Peter

    Great site. I visit daily. Keep it up.

    1. JB

      I’m here every day too. Great site for reliable information. See you tomorrow Peter.

  13. DirkH

    German cronies:
    “Only with the following years will it be possible to judge to what extent global warming of the earth’s surface will resume.””

    Pierre:
    “This is an interesting statement. The scientists now concede that natural factors now dominate, and 2) that the upcoming years will answer the hotly debated question concerning the extent of man-made warming.”

    They have conceded something else as well. THAT THE MODELS ARE CRAP.

  14. cementafriend

    Pierre, sorry there has been no El Nino this year. An El Nino was predicted but it was another prediction failure. From July it was clear from the SOI that there would be no El Nino. Some have continued to predict there will be an El Nino in early 2015 but the 30 day SOI is now just above -5.00 see this post http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3491

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  16. david

    What’s this about GHG’s warming the ocean. CO2’s radiation band is 15 microns which can only penetrate 3 microns of water. Since the ocean ‘skin’ is typically and on average 500-1000 microns and COOLer than the waters below (because of all the evaporation there), all this CO2 IR is trapped in the skin and reemitted to the atmosphere WITHOUT WARMING the waters below.

    CO2 back-radiation cannot warm the oceans.

  17. GogogoStopSTOP

    An innocent, naive school boy would have to ask: “If CO2 has an influence, then CO2 must be influencing the oceans heat absorption.” Or CO2 must have no effect at all!

  18. GogogoStopSTOP

    Prediction: Within two years, we’ll learn that at Mauna Loa they have been fudging the CO2 “numbers”… or, CO2 will actually start leveling off.

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  20. Brian H

    If natural cycles can ever dominate, they always dominate.