Study: German Scientists Conclude 20th Century Warming “Nothing Unusual” …Foresee “Global Cooling Until 2080”!

The Die kalte Sonne site here features a worrisome essay by German climate scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, Dr. Alexander Hempelmann and Carl Otto Weiss. They carefully examined climate changes of the past and have found that the recent changes (of the last 40 years are nothing out of the ordinary and that we need to worry about a global cooling that will persist until 2080.

They published 2 papers on the subject in the journal European Geophysical Union (EGU) [2], [3]. According to the 2 scientists, climate is often cyclic. The first study appeared in February 2013 and it examined six of the longest existing thermometer data series recorded in Europe, as well as one dataset from an Antarctic ice core and another from a data series extracted from stalagmites. The datasets were covered the period of 1757 – 2010.

The second publication appeared in February 2015 and it examines the past 2500 years.

The last 2500 years

The analysis of the past 2500 years involved data from tree rings, sediment cores, stalagmites, etc. A plot of the data yields a climate operating with cyclic behavior.

Figure 1: Temperature changes of the past 2500 years (with linear regression). 

Compared to the maxima and minima of the past, the current minima and maxima show that there is nothing unusual happening today. The scientists say today’s temperature changes are within the normal range. The German authors write: “Especially the 20th century shows nothing out of the ordinary.”

Figure 2: Sinusoidal representation of solar activity and 3 proxy datasets. Red: solar activity using 10Be proxy, Sine period = 208 years, correlation 0.68. Green: Büntgen data series [4], Sine period= 186 years, correlation 0.49. Brown: Christiansen/Ljungqvist  data series [5], sine period = 189 years, correlation 0.58. Blue: Cook data series [6], sine period= 201 years, correlation 0.41.

Global cooling next 60 years

The German scientists write that one result of the well established cyclic behavior over the past 2500 years is that it is justified to assume that the De Vries / Suess solar cycle will continue in the future.

They write that this means that “global cooling is to be expected over the next 60 years (Figure 3)“.

Figure 3: Sinusoidal behavior shown from the datasets by Christiansen/Ljungqvist [5] (brown) and Büntgen [4] (green) together with the Antarctic series [7] (blue) confirms that the De Vries / Suess cycle acts globally and that cooling is to be expected for the future.

“No trace of aperiodic effects”

Lüdecke, Hempelmann and Weiss also examined the oldest existing thermometer datasets going back some 250 years [2] taken at the locations of Kremsmünster, Vienna, Prague, Hohenpeißenberg, Munich and Paris. Their study also included ice cores and stalagmite datasets, which the scientists say “show exclusively periodic climate changes in fine detail. There is no trace of aperiodic effects, such as from the continuously rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (Figure 4).”

Figure 4: Central Europe temperature (black, smoothed, agrees with the Antarctic temperatures) and the sum of the 6 strongest cycles (red), as found with the cycle analysis of the black curve. The perfect agreement between red and black shows that non-cyclic impacts (such as the steadily increasing atmospheric CO2) play no role for the temperature. Only the cycles correctly reflect the measured temperatures.

Globe may cool to 1870 levels!

The German trio of scientists says the 0.7°C of warming occurring since the late 19th century is the result of the increase in the De Vries / Suess solar cycle and that the well-known oceanic AMO/PDO oscillations can also be seen. “These two cycles practically determine by themselves the earth’s temperature.”

The scientists add that the “pause“ in global warming is caused by the AMO/PDO, which has been on the decline since 2000. The De Vries / Suess solar cycle allows a general cooling up to the year 2080 to be predicted and that the global temperature will reach a level last seen in 1870.

“Results have been confirmed”

Strong doubts will certainly be fired at the findings by Lüdecke, Hempelmann and Weiss. But they remind us that in the solar physics literature other authors have already used their findings and arrive at practically the same conclusions (see the footnotes at the end of their two papers). The three German scientists sharply criticize the IPCC for refusing to acknowledge the sun as an obvious driver of the global climate.

Finally the German scietists say that in view of the increase in CO2 seen thus far, 50% of the temperature increase expected to happen by 2100 should have taken place by now – if such a CO2 warming were true. The scientists say that the way things stand now, if the CO2 effect were real, the future warming up to the year 2100 could be at most 0.7 °C.

Literature

[1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovi%C4%87-Zyklen

[2]  H.-J. Luedecke, A. Hempelmann, and C. O. Weiss:  Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long term instrumental and proxy temperature records, Clim. Past 9, 447 – 452 ( 2013 );  http://www.clim-past.net/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf

[3] H.-J. Luedecke, C. O. Weiss, and H.Hempelmann:  Paleoclimate forcing by the solar De Vries / Suess cycle, Clim. Past Discuss. 11, 279 (2015);  http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/11/279/2015/cpd-11-279-2015.pdf

[4] U. Büntgen et al., Science, 331, 4. Feb. 2011

[5] B: Christiansen and F. C. Ljungqvist, Clim. Past., 8, 765 – 786 (2012)

[6] E. R. Cook et al., Clim. Dynam., 16, 79 – 91 (2000)

[7] W. Graf et al., Ann. Glaciol., 35, 195 – 201 (2002)

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark

 

21 responses to “Study: German Scientists Conclude 20th Century Warming “Nothing Unusual” …Foresee “Global Cooling Until 2080”!”

  1. Ed Caryl
  2. Mindert Eiting

    Very good article, Pierre. Thanks.

  3. Dr Tim Ball-Climatologist
    1. AndyG55

      Tim, much as I appreciate your efforts in the fight against climate change totalitarianism, I really wish people would stick to the point at hand.

      This is the same cut and paste post as usual, an advertisement.. but we have all seen that before…

      You are better than that. 🙂

      1. A. N. Other (Brush Shovel and cart)

        But can we be sure that this is actually the Tim Ball, that we all know, because it may simply be a fan of his. Dr. Ball does not usually refer to himself as a “climatologist” does he? In his many radio and video presentations, he usually describes himself as an “Environmentalist” and a Geography PhD, and signs himself off usually as Dr. Tim Ball, and even Dr Timothy F Ball in official documents and papers etc. N’est-ce pas ?

  4. Oliver K. Manuel

    Regretfully, frightened world leaders tried to hide reality from the public for almost five hundred years ( 1543-2015).

    Powerful politicians and popes never wanted us to know the truth: Politicians and Popes are as powerless as the rest of us over the forces that control and sustain lives.

    Popes objected when Copernicus reported the giant fountain of energy at the gravitational core of the solar system in 1543. Four hundred years later, in 1945, atomic bombs revealed the source of energy in the core of the Sun, and frightened world leaders agreed to unite nations (UN) and national academies of sciences (NAS) in order to prohibit public knowledge of that source of energy – NEUTRON REPULSION !

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/STALINS_SCIENCE.pdf

    1. AndyG55

      Oliver..

      I really wish you had some input into the point at hand.

      When is enough, enough ?

  5. mwhite

    In my crystal ball I see the likes of

    -Unforeseen
    -Couldn’t have been predicted
    -We spent spent all the money on CAGW so we’ll have to put up taxes
    -etc

  6. Ric Werme

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/07/in-china-there-are-no-hockey-sticks/ suggests there will be cooling between 2006 and 2068, going down to 1860 levels or so.

    The study is based on 2500 years of tree ring data from the Tibetan plateau.

  7. Study: German Scientists Conclude 20th Century Warming “Nothing Unusual” …Foresee “Global Cooling Until 2080″! | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

    […] The Die kalte Sonne site here features a worrisome essay by German climate scientists Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, Dr. Alexander Hempelmann and Carl Otto Weiss. They carefully examined climate changes of the past and have found that the recent changes (of the last 40 years are nothing out of the ordinary and that we need to worry about a global cooling that will persist until 2080. http://notrickszone.com/2015/08/21/study-german-scientists-conclude-20th-century-warming-nothing-unu… […]

  8. Paul Pierett

    Based on Joseph D’Aleo’s research of sunspot activity, we should dip through 2030. My studies show drought, severe winter storms, and decreased hurricane activity through then. Then a regrowth of sunspot activity will slowly raise upper atmosphere humidity which will return rain. Winters will warm. Hurricane seasons will grow again and any gains in the Polar Ice Caps will reverse.

    Paul Pierett

  9. Andres Valencia

    For all we really know, Lüdecke, Hempelmann and Weiss may be on to something. Because we really know too little about the drivers of Earth’s climate.
    I look at ocean currents and cycles but keep the Sun in the peripheral vision.
    Thanks for the good article, Pierre Gosselin.

  10. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #193 | Watts Up With That?
  11. dave

    This article has proven wrong at many points; one: why only use the temepratures from one series and noty all the ancient series? Two before 1850 thermometers where not, as today, protected against wind and sun/shade but mostly hang out on a wall or tree or unprotected. This gavis an sumer warmth bias and wnter cooling bias, with summer hwarmth dominating infuence. Third: the fourier transformations used in the repport take only those numbers in account that subscribe their point, all other dataset are ‘leveled’ out and ignored. Thisis a repport that should never have been publiced.

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