Solar Analysis Shows That Coming 3 UK Winters Poised To Be Cold Ones – Strong Similarity To SC 12.

So far we’ve been seeing lots of signs of a cold coming winter: birds migrating from Siberia to Britain weeks early, unusual early-autumn snowfalls across Europe, various reports warning of the worst winter in decades etc.

In August, weather analyst Gavin Partridge put up one of his weather videos here. In it he looks at past solar activity, the current Solar Cycle no. 24, and its strong similarity to Solar Cycle no. 12.

Our current Solar Cycle 24 is similar to Solar Cycle 12 (December 1878 to March 1890), Partridge says. Source of data: SIDC.

What’s fascinating is that there have been a number of studies showing how Great Britain’s winters seem to be highly impacted by solar activity. During weak cycles, Great Britain’s winters tend to be dominated by large blocking highs which steer cold air masses across the country for a larger part of the winter season and so result in colder and snowier winters.

The following chart shows Solar Cycle no. 12 (marked in yellow) compared to all the previous cycles.

Solar cycle 12

Our current solar cycle 24 is shaping to be very similar to Solar Cycle 12 of the 1880s. So will Britain’s winters of Cycle No. 24 follow those of Cycle No. 12?  Partridge tells us in his video.

Partridge states that although Cycle 24 is not as weak as solar numbers 5 & 6, it is substantially weaker than normal and that it is strikingly similar to Cycle no. 12 of the 1870s and 1880s. The question is can we compare the winters of both cycles? Partridge does precisely that and comes up with stunning similarities between the winters of both cycles, depicted in the following chart.

Gavin Weather video

The thin blue line shows the current cycle. The bold blue line depicts Cycle No. 24. The dark blue bars show the temperature anomaly of the Cycle 11/12 winters, while the light blue bars show the corresponding temperature anomaly for the Cycle 23/24 winters. Source: here.

Partridge’s chart above shows how the winter trends of both cycles correspond – almost stunningly.  Seven of eight winters were in agreement regarding whether the winter was colder or warmer than normal – or normal. Last winter (2014/15) was very close to normal, as was the 1884/84 winter.

For example at the end of Solar Cycle 11 and Solar Cycle 23 in 1877/78 and 2008/09 respectively, both saw colder than normal winters – as did the following 1878/79 (2009/10), 1879/80 (2010/11) and 1880/81 (2011/12) winters.

As both Solar Cycles no. 12 and 24 became active, the respective 4 subsequent winters were milder and averaged above normal. Last winter (2014/15 – which corresponds 1884/85) showed cooling and was close to average – same was the case for the 1884/85 winter.

Should our current solar cycle continue to follow the same course as Solar Cycle 12, then we may have an indicator for the upcoming 3 winters. Using the winters of solar Cycle 12, we see that the next three winters correspond to the winters of 1885/86, 1886/87, 1887/88 (marked yellow in the above chart). They were all colder than normal, which tells us that this coming 2015/16 winter and the 2 winters to follow are also likely to turn out to be colder than normal.

Here we are purely using the similarities solar cycle to previous cycles indicate what the future might hold. Naturally there are many other factors at play. For example did the 1885/86 winter see a strong El Nino and a cold North Atlantic like we are seeing this year?

Of course using only solar cycle similarities is a dubious way to make a seasonal forecast. But on the other hand when 7 out of 8 years correspond to each other, it’s certainly something to keep in the back of your mind. So far the coming UK winter is shaping up to be right on course with Cycle no. 12. We’ll know in a few months time.

 

11 responses to “Solar Analysis Shows That Coming 3 UK Winters Poised To Be Cold Ones – Strong Similarity To SC 12.”

  1. Doug Proctor

    It’s interesting that you hesitate to use “only” a solar cycle to forecast the next 3 winters. The solar cycle is a proxy just as tree-rings are. Mann has no problem using his exclusively.

    Honesty is a b***h. No government grants for you

    1. DirkH

      The solar cycle was directly observed. Hence it is not a proxy.
      The temperature during the early observed solar cycles was directly observed. Nothing proxyish about it.

  2. Hoi Polloi

    I’m sceptic, so in this case I’m sceptic too. This is what you wrote in 2014 (amongst other 2014/2015) cold forecasts:

    http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/31/coming-europe-winter-meteorologists-agree-it-is-going-to-be-damned-cold-early-siberia-snow-bodes-ill/#sthash.ESkrYZdc.dpbs

    I wrote then, as I write now, wait and see.

    The point is Mother Nature goes it’s own way and that both goes for warmists and scpetics.

  3. mwhite
  4. DirkH

    German government increases FIT cross subsidy only by 0.2 Eurocents per kWh from 2015 to 2016.

    http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/eeg-umlage-buerger-muessen-mehr-fuer-gruene-energie-zahlen-1.2691997

    They probably don’t dare to plunder more as they are busy importing millions of Muslims, and evading the pitchforks. The big renewables plunder has made way for the Asylum Mafia plunder – which works even better!

    Meaning – the Global Warming Fraud has found its master – a fraud that works even better, even faster, even more destructive!

    1. sod

      “They probably don’t dare to plunder more”

      The price is calculated. Electricity prices for businesses are falling fast in Germany, which does increase the EEG, because it depends on the difference between (falling) market prices and the FIT schemes.

      The second reason is off-shore wind. To save the big power companies from going bancrupt (which they should, as they completely missed the wind of change), they get extremely favorable deals for their off shore wind projects.

  5. Edward.

    Anecdotal, and scientific observation can meld to predict, as you say Pierre.

    But my hunch is, we are due for some real cold snap and uncannily though not in any way scientific – but then the imminent Paris gobfest is nought to do with science either and the weird Al Gore effect………… it’s coming up!

    Yer know it, it’s odds on to be a cold one, and just maybe it could be a present from Vladimir Putin’s icy disdain and Siberian cold breath?

  6. Solar Analysis Shows That Coming 3 UK Winters Poised To Be Cold Ones – Strong Similarity To SC 12 | wchildblog

    […] From NoTricksZone, by P Gosselin, Oct 2015 […]

  7. Oliver K. Manuel

    The Climategate scandal seems to be the necessarily darkest moment in our history before a worldwide awakening to the reality that Max Planck realized in 1944: A “conscious and intelligent Mind” guides the force that holds the spinning subatomic particles [(e-, p+) pairs] together as atoms. That is the “Matrix of all matter.”

    In my opinion, that force originates in the Sun’s pulsar core for every atom and every life in the solar system.

    If world leaders and society awaken to the reality of powerlessness over the force that sustains our lives, society will be magically transformed.

    May the force be with us all as the Climategate scandal draws to its inevitable conclusion.

  8. Vermeer

    Interesting analogy although it is good to remain sceptical.

    The 3 winters indeed show up as a series of cold ones. Here are the monthly means (no anamolies) for Central Netherlands, (De Bilt). Winter temperatures of 0.8, 1.3 and 0.3 all mean some very serious cold periods with weeks of snow and ice.

    DEC JAN FEB Winter
    1885/86 2.6 0.8 -1.1 0.8
    1886/87 2.0 -0.1 2.1 1.3
    1887/88 1.7 0.3 -1.0 0.3

    The really big winter in this series however is 1890/91. From the end of November until the 20th of January or so the temperature rose above freezing only on a few days and every day had a frost.

    DEC JAN FEB Winter
    1890/91 -4.8 -1.7 2.4 -1.4

    Source: the KNMI historical data sets.

    http://projects.knmi.nl/klimatologie/daggegevens/antieke_wrn/index.html

    Source for the figures above is the one at the bottom right , this is the De Bilt record from 1706 until September of this year.