I’m short on time today, and so I’m reposting the latest on current El Nino – by German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung here.
For the first time in over two months the Southern Oscillation Index SOI rose 4.6 points and thus points to a possible normalization of the atmospheric pressure relationship and thus an eastward tradewind over the equatorial Pacific.
This indicates a development I mentioned a few days ago: El Niño Update November 2015: Peak Already Reached?
…The index for the difference of the surface atmospheric pressure between Darwin (Australia) and Tahiti (island located at the Pacific equator) in October 2015 was -21.3 (previous month -16.7) as a 30-day moving SOI, i.e. clearly well into El Niño range of below -7. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
The SOI is considered to be the two-month lead indicator for the development of the easterly trade winds at the equatorial Pacific and thus for future ENSO development.
At the end of October 2015 the SOI was clearly up after two low points in August:
Moving 30-day SOI from the Australian Weather Office BOM, end October 2015, with a steep drop in June 2015 and a low point in August and a jump upwards in October. Has the SOI reached its low point…? Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Only should this development continue can a weakening of the positive ENSO conditions be expected as a consequence…”
This development indeed is continuing for the time being as the latest SOI chart shows a steep climb in the still very negative values in November 2015:
During the past two weeks the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained strongly negative, but has risen toward more moderate-strong values compared to two weeks ago. The 30-day SOI value to 8 November was −15.6.Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
On 10 November the value of the 30-day moving SOI is -13.96, and thus has risen even further. Latest Southern Oscillation Index values (Long Paddock)
The El Niño range is departed when the value of -0.8 is exceeded.