The Super-Collapsing El Niño! …NCEP CFSv2 N. Hemisphere Surface Temps Plummet 1°C In A Single Week!

The following is the English version of a post appearing at the German “wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung?” (Where’s the global warming). The El current El Niño is in a tailspin.

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Global temperatures plummet in just a single week – NH one degree colder

By Schneefan

After the global temperature anomaly reached a peak in early December, 2015, we witnessed the global mean temperature plummeting massively in just a single week in mid December. The temperature anomalies of the northern hemisphere even fell a full 1°C:

Die Grafik zeigt den Verlauf der Abweichungen der globalen 2 m-Temperaturen zum international üblichen modernen WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 vom 1. Januar bis zum 19. Dezember 2015. Nach einem Jahreshöhepunkt Anfang Dezember 2015 gehen die globalen Temperaturabweichungen Mitte Dezember binnen einer Woche um 0,5 K kräftig zurück (schwarze Linie). Die NH (blaue Linie) fällt von 1,2 auf 0,2 K um 1 K. Quelle: http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php

The chart shows the daily deviations in global 2-m temperatures with respect to the international WMO 1981-2010 climate mean for the period January 1 to December 19, 2015. After reaching a peak in early December 2015, the global temperature anomalies dropped 0.5°K in just a single week in mid December (black line). The NH (blue line) dropped from 1.2 to 0.2°K. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php.

With a global temperature deviation of 0.27°K, 2015 thus far, as of 19 December, is rank 6 and will remain there. Chart MouseOver Tool

So it is certain: 2015 will not be a record warm year!

The cause for all this  – and the high warm deviation over November and early December 2015 and the recent plummet – is the powerful but in no way record-setting El Niño event, which likely reached its high point in November/December 2015.  Also helping was the huge drop in global tropical temperature anomalies. (Click to enlarge):

Die Grafik zeigt den Verlauf der Abweichungen der globalen 2 m-Temperaturen und der Tropen zum international üblichen modernen WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 vom 1. Januar bis zum 19. Dezember 2015. Nach einem Jahreshöhepunkt Anfang Dezember 2015 gehen die globalen Temperaturabweichungen Mitte Dezember binnen einer Woche um 0,5 K kräftig zurück (schwarze Linie). Die NH (blaue Linie) fällt von 1,2 auf 0,2 K um 1 K. Quelle: http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php

The chart shows the daily deviations of the global 2 m temperatures (black curve) and the tropics (20°S-20°N, red curve) with respect to the international WMO 1981-2010 climate mean for the period January 1 to December 19, 2015. After reaching a peak in early December 2015, the global temperature anomalies dropped 0.5°K in just a single week in mid December. In the tropics the drop was 0.4°K. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php.

And so it goes with the global temperature: ENSO models: La Niña coming in the second half of 2016.

From this the question arises: After 2014 and 2015, will 2016 also not be a global record warm year? Have world climate conferences become quickly senseless?

And how will the current very mild winter weather in Germany and Europe proceed? According to the latest model forecasts, indications are mounting that this is about to change after Christmas time.

Schneefan 2015

13 responses to “The Super-Collapsing El Niño! …NCEP CFSv2 N. Hemisphere Surface Temps Plummet 1°C In A Single Week!”

  1. Green Sand

    Been watching the change over the last 2 weeks and it has been significant in magnitude and ‘unexpected’? With such movements I am always a little wary of equipment and or transposition errors but I think we would have heard by now if there is a problem.

    Also if the numbers are correct a significant move in one direction over a short period demonstrates that it is equally possible for there to be a similar move in the opposite direction. So we wait and see what happens next.

    The only sort of ‘confirmation’ I know of is:-

    “Daily global average temperature at: 25,000 ft / 7.5 km / 400 mb (AQUA ch06)”

    https://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl?r=003

    Which does show a drop over the time period, but I have no idea if it can be used to confirm magnitude.

    Time will tell.

    1. Ric Werme

      The satellite readings generally lag the surface temperature by a couple months.

      I’m reluctant to get very excited over a few weeks’s change, as both signals are very noisy. Though it is interesting if 2015 does have a chance of missing out on the warmest year ever award (your dataset may vary).

  2. DirkH

    Anything below 30 years is weather. notwithstanding the giddiness of the entire worlds’ warmunists about this dud of an El Nino.

    Just been watching some good ole climate pr0n from discovery channel about how all coastal cities will get inundated by melting Antarctiva, starring Hansen, Rahmstorff and Lester Brown and COMPUTER ANIMATIONS (pretty crappy actually). Ah, those were the days, one wonders, what are all those animators doing now?

    1. Ric Werme

      Don’t call it a dud yet, the ENSO 3.4 value is still high (though the SOI made a dramatic step up a week or two ago). Hopefully California will get some sizable rain and snow storms before El Nino fades into insignificance.

      (After that, they’ll still be dealing with a historic drought, but hopefully with full reservoirs.)

    2. yonason

      “Anything below 30 years is weather.” – DirkH

      You mean, it’s more like this?
      http://www.c3headlines.com/2015/12/unprecedented-modern-global-warming-study-discovers-its-not-happening-in-chile.html

  3. Doug Proctor

    The magnitude of the drop suggests, by comparison with other large drops in the graphed time frame, that any rebound will be less. It would also reflect the idea that the spike represents a time-limited acceleration of heat loss, not a sudden release of a new heat source bubbling to the surface (a local example of the El Nino/La Nina temperature reversal).

    Notice that all INCREASES in temperature attributable to “weather” are “climate change”, whereas the DECREASES are weather or “natural variability” in the warmist lexicon.

    As for the COP meetings: the next series has, IMO, a problem for both sides of the debate. For the warmists, the heavy lifting, according to their self-image, has been done. The agreement that “saves the planet” has been made; Obama’s promise to have the planet “heal” during his watch has occurred. So the next meetings can’t be substantive but about details. A bureaucratic dullness of reporting on where-we’re-at in carrying out the plans. The plans are, in this mind, fixed, and so is the intent of carrying them out. The meetings could not include necessary but yet undiscussed steps. Obama and Hollande have already taken care of that.

    For the skeptics, the COP21 agreement represents a problem because the warmists can say that discussion-period is over. We are now moving-and-grooving. Once you are travelling down the road you no longer should be asking about where you are going, only about how the journey is going so far. The fact that later you end up in Dayton, Ohio instead of Wallyworld, California, is a subject of future discussion, and you may find you are happy in Wallyworld, anyway.

    New COP meetings in this view are unimportant politically either positively or negatively. The car wreck has been removed and the highway, reopened. No leader need attend, which means they resolve into the wallpaper for the public. Which would be fine, except the meetings will still cost taxpayer money, enrich special interests and lead, by regulatory “agreements” to costly subsidies and economic disincentives.

    1. Gail Combs

      Speaking of the Paris-ites COP21 agreement. E.M. Smith has a good essay on the OTHER treaty that gives the COP21 agreement the TEETH for enforcement. (It also removes US and Australian sovereignty.)

      https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/paris-cop21-obama-declares-victory-the-tpp-likely-gives-it-to-him/
      (E.M. covers different points then I do below)

      The US just released the 5,544-page text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership The agreement involving 12 countries comprises nearly 40 percent of global economic output.

      A Synopsis FROM THE US GOVERNMENT It has nasty surprises such as this:

      ENVIRONMENT
      As home to a significant portion of the world’s people, wildlife, plants and marine species, TPP Parties share a strong commitment to protecting and conserving the environment, including by working together to address environmental challenges, such as pollution, illegal wildlife trafficking, illegal logging, illegal fishing, and protection of the marine environment….
      They reaffirm their commitment to implement the multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) they have joined. The Parties commit to provide transparency in environmental decision-making, implementation and enforcement….. Finally, the Parties commit to cooperate to address matters of joint or common interest, including in the areas of conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, and transition to low-emissions and resilient economies.

      THE TEETH!
      Unlike some other treaties the TPP has enforcement. Worse, as can be seen if you read between the lines it has ENFORCEMENT FOR OTHER TREATIES! The Groniad says this about the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement:

      Leading arbitration lawyer, George Kahale (chairman of Curtis, Mallet-Provost, Colt & Mosie LLP, an international law firm) says there are critical loopholes in the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s investment chapter that leave Australia wide open:

      ….an MFN clause is tantamount to a classic wipeout move. It would enable foreign corporations from TPP states to make a claim against Australia based on the ISDS provisions in any other trade deal Australia has signed, no matter which country it was signed with. That means it does not matter how carefully the TPP is drafted: foreign investors can cherrypick another treaty Australia has signed, and sue the Australian government based on the provisions included in that treaty…..”
      http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/10/tpps-clauses-that-let-australia-be-sued-are-weapons-of-legal-destruction-says-lawyer

      Back to the US Government synopsis we find:

      DISPUTE SETTLEMENT
      The Dispute Settlement chapter is intended to allow Parties to expeditiously address disputes between them over implementation of the TPP. ….TPP Parties aim to have these disputes resolved through impartial, unbiased panels. … hearings will be open to the public unless the disputing Parties otherwise agree, and the final report presented by panels will also be made available to the public. Panels will consider requests from non-governmental entities located in the territory of any disputing Party to provide written views regarding the dispute to panels during dispute settlement proceedings.

      Should consultations fail to resolve an issue, Parties may request establishment of a panel, which would be established within 60 days after the date of receipt of a request for consultations or 30 days after the date of receipt of a request related to perishable goods. Panels will be composed of three international trade and subject matter experts independent of the disputing Parties, with procedures available to ensure that a panel can be composed even if a Party fails to appoint a panelist within a set period of time. These panelists will be subject to a code of conduct to ensure the integrity of the dispute settlement mechanism. … The final report must be presented no later than 30 days after the presentation of the initial report and must be made public within 15 days, subject to the protection of any confidential information in the report.

      To maximize compliance, the Dispute Settlement chapter allows for the use of trade retaliation (e.g., suspension of benefits), if a Party found not to have complied with its obligations fails to bring itself into compliance with its obligations. Before use of trade retaliation, a Party found in violation can negotiate or arbitrate a reasonable period of time in which to remedy the breach….

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  5. Svend Ferdinandsen

    There you see. The COP21 has saved the world.

  6. sod

    Is that the second or third drop of about that size in the 18 months covered by the gaphs?

    count me unimpressed!

  7. AndyG55
  8. RichardLH

    I haven’t looked at this ‘fast’/’early’ data before. Yes a very fast drop. Yes not unusual. But if it should continue to fall or even suffer as small rebound now, that trajectory makes for interesting viewing.

    Have to wait until at least a few weeks into 2016 to see.

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