The following is the English version of a post appearing at the German “wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung?” (Where’s the global warming). The El current El Niño is in a tailspin.
After the global temperature anomaly reached a peak in early December, 2015, we witnessed the global mean temperature plummeting massively in just a single week in mid December. The temperature anomalies of the northern hemisphere even fell a full 1°C:
The chart shows the daily deviations in global 2-m temperatures with respect to the international WMO 1981-2010 climate mean for the period January 1 to December 19, 2015. After reaching a peak in early December 2015, the global temperature anomalies dropped 0.5°K in just a single week in mid December (black line). The NH (blue line) dropped from 1.2 to 0.2°K. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php.
With a global temperature deviation of 0.27°K, 2015 thus far, as of 19 December, is rank 6 and will remain there. Chart MouseOver Tool
So it is certain: 2015 will not be a record warm year!
The cause for all this – and the high warm deviation over November and early December 2015 and the recent plummet – is the powerful but in no way record-setting El Niño event, which likely reached its high point in November/December 2015. Also helping was the huge drop in global tropical temperature anomalies. (Click to enlarge):
The chart shows the daily deviations of the global 2 m temperatures (black curve) and the tropics (20°S-20°N, red curve) with respect to the international WMO 1981-2010 climate mean for the period January 1 to December 19, 2015. After reaching a peak in early December 2015, the global temperature anomalies dropped 0.5°K in just a single week in mid December. In the tropics the drop was 0.4°K. Source: weatherbell.com/temperature.php.
And so it goes with the global temperature: ENSO models: La Niña coming in the second half of 2016.
And how will the current very mild winter weather in Germany and Europe proceed? According to the latest model forecasts, indications are mounting that this is about to change after Christmas time.