UPDATE: Tony Heller reminds us (and Bernie Sanders) how warm it was back in 1951 on New Years Eve: https://twitter.com/Goddardde
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At his always interesting Saturday Summary at Weatherbell Analytics here, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi confirms what Tony Heller’s Real Science posted a couple of days ago: December 24, 1955 was warmer than the impressively warm December 24, 2015.
It goes to show that you simply cannot judge climate based on a single weather event.
Europe too has seen a record warm November-December period. And that too was due to a weather pattern that saw persistent southerly winds throughout the entire period. Of course southern winds are going to warm up an area.
At the mark, Joe compares December 24 of 1955 to 2015:
Images cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary video December 16, 2015.
Clearly USA December 24, 1955 was much warmer than in 2015. And Joe reacted harshly to all the media hype of the recent days, calling it “ridiculous” and “propaganda”. He accuses the alarmist side of being “disingenuous”, using “lies and deception” and pushing “false missives”.
Joe reminds that the current El Niño warmth will soon give way to cool conditions – thanks to the upcoming La Niña .
2015 only the globe’s 6th warmest on record
At the 9:57 mark Joe debunks the claims that 2015 has been a globally record warm year. Charts based on NCEP data by Dr. Ryan Maue show that 2015 is in fact not even in the top 5 warm years. Joe tells his viewers that clearly 2002, 2003 2005, 2006 and 2007 were warmer.
I’ve spliced together the three charts Joe showed to provide an overall impression of the trend of the last 37 years, 1978 – 2016 (sorry for the poor quality – but you get the idea).
NCEP global temperature data.
Here we see that the last decade was warmer than the current one so far. Moreover the upcoming La Niña will act to markedly dampen global temperatures by late 2016. Joe suspects they will fall well below the zero line of the above chart. By then we can expect the climate activists to start chasing droughts, floods, tornadoes, plankton or whatever.
For the upcoming weeks, the forecasts show that the weather patterns are set to shift over both North America and Europe, which are about to get a taste of winter – just as Joe predicted months ago.
There is a short cut on my desk top to Sat. Summary.
First thing I look at on Sunday morning. Joe Bastardi rules!!!
Alfred
Dog bites man. Alarmists lie and deceive. Sun rises in the east.
Sadly, all these lies coming out of the climate change deception are a sad reflection on the political influence driving an agenda that people have latched onto for whatever reasons, none of which involve real scientific evidence.
Please, can somebody give me a link to that “lie”?
Who made the claim, that the while USA was warmer than 1955?
All news that i found via google put it correctly (very warm on one cost).
I think Joe means the overall tone and designed implications, which I agree on. Too many people, like Bette Midler, for example, let themselves get caught up in the hype. Today even a single hurricane gets presented as a never-seen-before event. The point is that warm Christmases and other spells have happened before and are nothing new. It may be that they are happening “more frequently than in the past” (like the 1960s and 70s, but this too in not unusual during naturally occurring warm periods which we know occurred over and over again in the past.
Maybe your search method is poor. And perhaps Joe is also responding to comments made by warmist colleagues. You’re only trying to distract from the main argument concerning the recent hype. I didn’t ask him who exactly he is responding to. The point is that Christmas 1955 was was warmer in USA than 2015.
“Maybe your search method is poor. ”
That might be, but so far it looks like it is not.
Source of the story is this website:
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/12/24/christmas-eve-1955-was-much-warmer/
and they claim to source it on the “warm as july” story at drudge, from the 24th:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-eve-record-warmth-ny/54313801
But that story title says:
”
Warmest Christmas Eve on record to unfold across eastern US”
and that would be accurate.
and they even say this:
“According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines, “On Christmas Eve, parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England could be just as warm as they were on the Fourth of July.””
by the way, accuweather and Bastardi have a common history…
” You’re only trying to distract from the main argument concerning the recent hype.”
No. The accusations here are pretty direct: lies. If you want to call something a lie, you need to demonstrate it.
Joe called it a lie, not me. Moreover, you are making lots of assumptions on who he is responding to. We do not know who else Joe is responding to. We can haggle over word semantics here, but I agree with Joe. Always we are getting the impression that it’s never happened before, which is total BS. They’ve lied so much now that nobody believes anything said by media and NASA, etc.
“Joe called it a lie, not me. ”
That is true. But people on your blog repeat the claim, and so we should have a common interest in finding out, whether it is true or not.
“We do not know who else Joe is responding to. ”
That is also true. So we have the one source he gives at the start (minute 0:15) of the video, which you also named.
and we can do a google search to find out, if the “warmest USA” was really a common theme.
” They’ve lied so much now that nobody believes anything said by media and NASA, etc.”
But in this case, we have not found a lie so far. So either we keep searching, or we admit that there was no lie in this case.
“But in this case, we have not found a lie so far. So either we keep searching, or we admit that there was no lie in this case.”
For a person who constantly tells us that wind power works you can become very nitpicky with the truth if it suits you.
Well, Bill McKibben seems happy to get all screechy about it: https://mobile.twitter.com/billmckibben/status/681565095260991488
Is that link good enough for you Sod? It seems Joe B was right about alarmists such as Bill spreading the lie about “warmest evah!”
Sorry Sod, you just got pwned
Bernie Sanders tweeted that “no one has ever seen 65 degrees on Christmas Eve” then calls for action of “climate change.” Someone smartly responded with the 5 or 6 times in the 80 years that it has been 65 or higher in D.C. It is this kind of ignorance followed by a call for action based on the ignorance that is so appalling. God help us if that numbskull gets elected President.
[…] https://notrickszone.com/2015/12/27/joe-bastardi-blasts-claims-2015-christmas-was-us-warmest-ridiculo… […]
So what makes the NCEP CFS Reanalysis right and all the other temp records wrong?
Inaccurate claim. Not all the others are wrong. The RSS and UAH satellite data are said to be okay, but the datasets relying on the surface stations have been “readjusted”, which has been confirmed by NOAA in writing. Joe calls NCEP CFS the “gold standard”. But you can ask him yourself at Weatherbell.
Cheers 🙂
You might find interest in this analysis:
https://okulaer.wordpress.com/2015/12/23/why-gistemp-loti-global-mean-is-wrong-and-hadcrut3-gl-is-right/
The alarmists don’t need to say it directly anymore. The conditioning has been completed and the puppies know what to do. A single dog whistle about a “strangely warm” Christmas season is all it takes.
See the Pavlov effect in the comments below this silly “human interest” story:
Washington Post
‘Jesus might be coming back . . . Or it’s something else. I don’t know.’
A strangely warm winter in Washington and abroad
By Paul Schwartzman
December 25, 2015
…
From the comments:
—
TenneyNaumer
It’s called climate change, stupid!
—
Bleeding Heart Liberal
The Global Warming Denier liars always go from El Niño to La Niña years to fake a “hiatus” in Global Warming.
—
IndieOne
Record highs on the east coast, deadly tornadoes in the south, snow in northern California and wildfires in southern California. Don’t worry. This is all perfectly normal.
—
ribuyer
25 degrees above normal on Christmas…and the climate change deniers will still be in denial when its 25 above normal on the 4th of July! Never has this nation been so afflicted by stupidity!!!
—
laughingcat
Extreme weather is a symptom of larger climate changes.
—
5amefa91
It was 72 degrees on Christmas Eve. That would be the point. People are finally realizing that there is global warming and we are causing it.
—
Bitter Tulip
Yes, we have. It’s just part of a troubling trend in line with the science of man made climate change.
—
Fitzcaraldo
It’s anthropogenic global warming, stupid.
——————–
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/jesus-might-be-coming-back–or-its-something-else-i-dont-know/2015/12/25/29899896-aa8c-11e5-9b92-dea7cd4b1a4d_story.html
Didn’t Joe Bastardi forecasted a “nasty type of winter” especially for the UK in September? I believe he forecasted bad winters for the last 2 years. Sorry, I cannot take his forecasts serious anymore and I am nót an alarmist.
Certainly you are aware of the uncertainty with which long-term forecasts are fraught. No forecast can be taken 100% seriously. Overall I still think Joe does an excellent job considering the chaos weather involves.
Here is the link to the discussion of his forecast on this blog:
https://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-north-atlantic-cold-expands/
I wrote this back then:
“Bastardi obviously has a job as a long term weather forecast person. He would not have this job, if he was terrible at telling us something about the next season. But i am curious about any good climate forecasts from him. Has anyone got a link?”
so does anyone have a link?
Rather than reply, it’s probably better to just start fresh.
Those of you who like Joe’s “Saturday Summary” will also appreciate his Daily Summary – and today (12/28) he revisits the figures on 1955 and 2015 that he presented Saturday that Pierre replicated above.
What he has been noting is that overall, the warmth of Christmas 1955 was – on a continent-wide basis – larger and stronger than it was this year. He points out today that in 1955, temperatures in the southern Plains reached or exceeded 90 degrees (for those of you who are trapped in primitive societies that still use the metric system, that’s 32C or more).
But if you just compare the two figures above, you’ll see the problem – unlike in 1955, the weaker and smaller 2015 warm pocket happened to be concentrated over the metropolitan area of the “northeast corridor.” When something like this happens, you have to shake your head at the sheer yokelishness of all the screaming mimis who pop out of the woodwork to blame this on “global (sic) warming.” The “sophisticates” (sic) can’t be bothered to look at what’s going on beyond their own back yards (literally).
While that was going on in eastern North America, the unbelievable winter assault on western North America not only continued – it worsened. The seemingly-oddly-named (this year) Sun Bowl football game in El Paso, Texas (which is right on the border with Mexico) – normal high, 56F/13C – was played in a raging snowstorm:
https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UDOdUTpP8yUZvdE7aNfLXv6ib94=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/5854853/snoooow.0.gif
That was the onset of a full-out blizzard that buried (at least) New Mexico and the Texas panhandle – shutting down hundreds of miles of Interstate 40. Get on the western side of that big trough in the jet stream and it’s been brutally cold compared to long-term averages.
The hyperventilators, of course, expect to be able to make predictions and then have them conveniently disappear when they end up being 180-degrees-out-of-phase wrong. Funny thing. Speaking of eastern yokels, the android who is presently the governor of the state of Vermont, following an unusually-mild December 2006 when he was a state senator, assured us that that warm spell was obviously the onset of serious “global warming” and that it was settled science that if nothing were done, within 10 years (!!) the Vermont ski industry would be out of business. Last winter, the Vermont ski industry set an all-time record for skier visits. Let’s not let this prediction go down the memory hole any more than Mr. Viner’s “prediction” did.
My comment to all of this is …. So What ?
What I mean is, that does anybody really look at those charts, and look at the scale of the temperature particularly. To me actually it looks remarkably stable. We are only talking about a few tenths of a degree for goodness sake. The temperature in my house varies more than this from room to room, but you’d hardly even notice that.
Can these so called “global average temperatures”, or even worse the so called “global average temperature anomaly” have ANY credibility? It is a serious question. What effect does some tenths of a degree variation in this “global average” have on ANY particular locus, on ANY day or week of the year? Can such an effect actually be measured at all?
I am beginning to think that the entire thing is an exercise in “haute cozenage”, and that even genuine scientists, becoming increasingly concerned over the dearth of research funds, were only too eager to accept these flawed prospectuses from “green” apparatchiks, and then having painted themselves into that corner, have had to defend the hokum for decades.
It is time to come clean and forsake these tainted funds, and yes maybe you will be poorer financially for a time, but your integrity will be restored. Science has been set back decades by this; having to conform to the official, but defective CO2 narrative, whilst trying to engage in honest research. I would go one step further personally, and be absolutely crystal clear.
for example :
Subject :
Common European Spider Crab (Maia squinado) of Cardigan Bay, Wales : Breeding and Migration, irrespective of Ocean or Atmospheric CO2 concentrations. (duration: five years)
Abstract :
Its range extends from France and Spain where it is commonly harvested, up as far as the west coast of Wales – close to its northern limit.
Spider Crabs live in deeper water in the winter – in depths of up to 120 metres, but come closer inshore in the early summer months as water temperatures increase. There is no doubt that such a migration would tend to result in a greater population density closer to the shore in the summer. New Quay fishermen, say they are present in numbers from about the middle of May for some three months.
Like other crabs, the females carry the eggs – up to 150,000 , around with them under their abdomen which is tucked underneath the carapace or shell. Most females are ‘berried’ or carrying eggs by May. The eggs take from 60 -75 days to mature at which time a tiny larva hatches out and swims up into the plankton.
There is much speculation as to why the crabs are being found in such large numbers in some years. It is well known that Spider crab numbers can fluctuate wildly from year to year. This study would seek to find the real cause behind those fluctuations, with the aim of creating a more steady and reliable yield for both Cornish and Welsh Fisher-folk.
The minute yearly variations in the trace gas CO2 are not of any consideration in this study, since we are more concerned about other environmental factors which do vary considerably from year to year.
—
That was just an example, but can I have my £3,000,000 now please, plus my holiday cottage..em..err.. research laboratory, on the North Cornwall Coast. Will it be ready for the Spring 2016 ? I will also require a Motor Launch, and at least one Landrover. Certified Banker’s Draft will be acceptable, Thank You !
“Nobody can recall a Christmas Eve where the temperature was 65 degrees. Why is it that we’re not effectively addressing climate change?”
Bernie Sanders, 28 December, 2015
1,607 retweets, 3,567 likes
https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/681552243653488640
https://coloradowellington.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/sen-sanders-nobody-can-recall-a-65f-christmas-eve.png
The tweet does not say anything that is a lie. Why do you think that he makes the claim that all of the USA has never been this warm before?
Tweet and chat messages by the way, are short by nature. This is no basis for you claims, keep searching!
It is also mostly impossible, that a tweet from the 28th started this story on the 24th….
sod 29. December 2015 at 9:37 AM | Permalink | Reply
“The tweet does not say anything that is a lie.”
Lie by omission. Comrade Sanders omits that we have an El Nino. El Nino winters tend to be on the warm side in the NH.
Now go ahead and tell me that this El Nino is a sign of Global Warming. I’m WAITING for it.
BTW warmunist computer model junk can not predict El Ninos. The first 3 meters of the oceans contain as much energy as the entire atmosphere. You can’t predict the oceans? Well tough. How then will you predict the atmosphere? You can’t and you know it. Like the comrade.
“There is no controlling legal authority that says this was in violation of law.”
“It depends upon what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is. If ‘is’ means ‘is and never has been’ that’s one thing – if it means ‘there is none’, that was a completely true statement.”
“The tweet does not say anything that is a lie.”
You are desperate.
Only a few minutes later:
1,635 retweets, 3,629 likes
The idea is on fire. Sod off, Swampy.
RE: Tweet “Bernie Sanders, 28 December, 2015”
Yes the retweet count is rising by the minute,
but did you look at the replies? Even on Bernie’s
own channel, they are mostly critical and mocking.
I imagine there will be a similar story at the
threads where the retweet occurs. This is being
retweeted as an example of Sanders Gross Ignorance
on the issue, that he imagines that we are able to
effectively address climate change?
Many people do give him the answer, though
it isn’t the one he seeks. The answer is of
course that we are not addressing climate change,
because we Humans do not control climate change.
Is Sanders related to that Congressman who thought
that if you built too much on one side of a tropical
island, that it might tip over into the sea, because
he imagined for decades that tropical islands float
like a raft on the surface. I blame the US School
Education System, and The United Nations so called
“Curriculum for Excellence”, but it’s half a century
since old Bernie was in any kind of education !
Poor old sod, he is being played for a dupe,
by the cardigan & gum boot brigade so as to
give them some kind of socialist credentials.
I noticed the replies. They mostly show the difference between the Swampies and the rest of us.
“Poor old sod, he is being played for a dupe,”
Please do not worry about me. So far there was not a single link presented here, which shows a claim about christmas 2015 having been the warmest even in the USA.
Please let us solve this problem, i can not find such a link. Can you?
It was the “old sod” Sanders who is the dupe, not you, you young whippersnapper. when old Bernie was a lad, you could go out on a Saturday with just a sawbuck in your pocket, and… then…
Take a lady to the theater, and then on to a fine restaurant for a slap up dinner, then pay for a chauffeur driven limousine, to take you both to a luxurious casino and while away a couple of hours, and still have enough money left over for a cab ride home !
Ah… those were the good olde days, and if old sod Bernie has his way, we shall be back there again, dinner by candlelight made from bio-ethical beeswax at astronomical cost, and your dinner will consist of boiled turnips and textured soya-bean curds with added seaweed …. every day. You will work twelve hour days, seven days per week, until you die. You will be unable to travel anywhere, as that is only for the Party apparatchiks in their state limos, like in old Communist Albania. If you are lucky you might be able to have a hand barrow attached to a makeshift pedal tricycle, or even if you are middle class, a horse and buggy – like the Amish. Really I think that Bernie would be in his element in certain parts of Pennsylvania, and really he missed his true calling …. as Amish Preacher !
Even the Amish however can drive a motor vehicle ….. so long as they do not own it, and not on the Sabbath of course. Bernie could rail against that, and even find a welcome among some hard-liners.
But it’s the unswerving belief that the Amish have, that in fact a higher power is in charge of the climate, and that humans cannot possibly affect that overmuch. The Amish would call that Authority, The Lord God Almighty, and some of the original green spectacles might call it Gaia, whereas many in here might call it Old Sol – The Sun.
Ultimately whichever you believe,
doesn’t Old Bernie look very tired ?
http://i.imgur.com/ms6VHhI.jpg
Somebody get Bernie Sanders into a retirement home already This frail old dude looks like he’s about to die from heatstroke. Can’t even spend a day at the fair, how is he supposed to handle the heat as President?
http://i.imgur.com/88Mf0b1.jpg
(H/T HankScorp1o – Koala Tea Poster – bodybuilding dot com forum)
It paid again that I don’t drink while reading through these comments. Thanks. I needed this. 😀
[…] to weather is silly. The hysterics are not driven by good science or actual weather facts. As this article notes, the warm weather in December is likely to transition to a La Nina pattern later in 2016, […]