By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
It’s the end of the year tally at the DWD German Weather Service for 2015. In a press release the DWD reported on December 30, 2015:
2015 second warmest year in Germany – tied with 2000 and 2007
2015 in Germany saw a mean temperature of 9.9°C, thus – after the preliminary analysis of measurements taken from some 2000 surface stations belonging to the DWD – it is the second warmest year on record since measurements began in 1881, tied with 2000 and 2007. The temperature record of 2014 stands by a wide margin at 10.3°C. Moreover the past 12 months were also drier and sunnier than normal, the DWD reports.
In 2015, 10 of 12 months were warmer than normal. Only September and October came in below the multi-year mean. August was the second warmest and November and December were even the record warmest ever since 1881. In July and August extreme heat dominated Germany, and the Franconian town of Kitzingen measured 40.3 °C , setting a new Germany record high.”
What a disappointment. We were already looking forward to a new annual record – and then came the blow. Only the silver medal, and that shared with two other years. Theoretically 2015 got only one third of a silver medal.
Back on September 21, 2015, German public television ntv held out hope:
According to scientists 2015 could be the warmest year on record worldwide since measurements began 135 years ago. Also Germany could break a record. So far in the country 2014 has been the warmest, said the chairperson of the German meteorological Society (DMG), Gudrun Rosenhagen at the 10th German Climate Conference in Hamburg. And this year is well on the way to break the record.”
What a pity, Frau Rosenhagen. By the way we are still waiting for an answer to our question sent to the DMG (see “Answer requested: Is the solar trend in the statement released by the German Meteorological Society correct?“). In its press release the DWD claims that in 2015 ten of twelve months were warmer than the mean. We assume this is in comparison to the now obsolete and ancient 1961 to 1990 reference period. When using the more up-to-date 1981 to 2010 reference period, the number of warmer than normal months likely drops.
It also remains a mystery how Germany’s year 2000 managed to reach 2nd place. It was a rained out summer and public swimming pools saw very few swimmers. [The following video shows ARD television asking whatever had happened to the summer amid cold rainy weather]:
Thanks to Klima Manifest Heiligenroth
The DWD forgets to mention that over the past 15 years there has been no warming whatsoever. What follows are a number monthly mean temperature plots going back over the recent past. For whatever reason, what the DWD refuses to make public, is made public thanks to Josef Kowatsch. What follows are three examples of the development of monthly mean temperatures in Germany – based on the DWD’s own original data.
February Germany temperature plot since 1988:
July Germany mean temperature plot since 2000:
October mean temperature plot, last 16 years:
No global record
Also the global temperature failed to set a new record in 2015. The UAH measured figures show an extended global temperature pause. 2015 came in only in third place, as NASA satellite expert Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama in Huntsville documents here.
This makes 2015 the third warmest year globally (+0.27°C) in the satellite record (since 1979), well behind 1998 (+0.48 deg C) and 2010 (+0.34 deg. C).
That’s quite lousy for an El Niño year, which in mid 2015 the year was regarded as a candidate for a world record. Somehow the wind behind 2015 must have disappeared in the second half.
Temperature trend as to satellite measurements. Figure: Roy Spencer, UAH.
Moreover surface station datasets GISS and HadCRUT are in crisis. Over the past years they have interfered multiple times with the datasets and carried out a number of highly dubious corrections that make little sense. The data are now highly questionable, and alleged records are suspicious. Here there has to be and there will be consequences.