A reader has brought my attention to more new papers. I haven’t found any mention of them at other sites like WUWT. Perhaps they aren’t able to get through the Gate of Willis.
At any rate, just because I choose to bring them up, it doesn’t necessarily mean that I agree with them. I do strongly feel, however, that these papers need to be brought to the public’s attention. They have, after all, gone through the peer-review process and appeared in respectable journals.
The latest paper NTZ wishes to present today is one lead-authored by Chantal Camenisch of the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern in Switzerland, appearing in the Journal Climate of the Past bearing the title: “The early Spörer Minimum – a period of extraordinary climate and socio-economic changes in Western and Central Europe“.
Obviously, just as dozens of other papers have shown already, low solar activity has something to do with cooling climates, famine and socioeconomic collapse. So it’s probably a very good thing the 20th century saw high solar activity, but a bad thing that we may be starting an extended period of low solar activity.
The papers abstract:
Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.
Again here climate science seems to have the chronic habit of blaming unexpected cold or warming pauses on “chance”, as the above paper does. Yet, under the bottom line, the paper is just the latest confirming that climate swings and fluctuations are indeed natural and have always happened in the past. Often solar activity is very much in the works.
Moreover, today’s possible 0.05°C of warming we may have seen over the past 2 decades is nothing compared to the stuff we’ve seen before.
It’s time to end the hysterics.
11 responses to “New Findings Show Sun, Natural Factors Linked To Sudden Climate Change, Famine, And European Social Collapse”
queue sod and David Appell
“These events never happened. The earth’s climate was always the same prior to industralization”
Weather is not climate, but a lot of weather report covering a period of 30 years or longer do tell about the climate and its trends. Here is an excerpt from a compilation of weather reports that covers close to the last 2000 years. The following excerpt covers just a couple of years out of “the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) …the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century,” mentioned in the paper you indicated:
In 1431 during the period between 9 July and 7 August, floods struck Hopei (now Hebei province) in northern China at Peiping.153
Winter of 1431 / 1432 A.D.
A severe winter began in Germany in 20 November 1431 and lasted until 4
March 1432. The rivers were frozen. 28
[Another source gives this as the winter of 1432 – 33]
“In 1432 – 1433, the Seine and all the rivers of Germany were frozen.” 62
During the winter of 1432, the frost was very severe in England. 212
In 1432, floods struck Chekiang (now Zhejiang province) on the east coast of China at Ch’ang – hua. 153
A terrible flood of the Rhône River in France ravaged the territory of Arles and destroyed a large number of cattle. 61
In Ireland, there was a famine of great severity. 57, 91
In 1433, floods struck Kiangsi (now Jiangxi province) in southern China at Nan – ch’ang, P’o – yang, Kiukiang, Shang – jao, and Nan – k’ang. During the period between 20 April and 18 May, a drought engulfed Hopei (now Hebei province) in northern China at Peiping; Honan (now Henan province) in central China at Loyang; Shantung (now Shandong province) on the east coast of China at Tsi nan; and Shansi (now Shanxi province) in northern China at Taiyuan. This drought led to a famine. 153
In 1433 during the summer, there was a drought in Honan, Shansi and Chantung provinces in China. The land tax was remitted. [The source document cited this as year 1333 but was out of chronological order and appeared to be an obvious mistake.] 165
Winter of 1433 / 1434 A.D.
During the winter in 1434, the River Thames was frozen below Gravesend. 
In London, England, the river was frozen below London Bridge to Gravesend from 24 November 1433 to 10 February 1434. The price of wheat rose to 27 shillings per quarter [quarter ton], but afterwards fell back down to 5 shillings.
In England from 24 November to 10 February 1434, the River Thames was frozen below London – bridge to Gravesend because of the severe frost. [2, 39, 40, 41, 43, 90] [Gravesend is a town in northwest Kent, England, on the south bank of the Thames, opposite Tilbury in Essex.]
In England in 1434, there was one continued severe frost from 25 November to 10 February. Ships lying at the mouth of the River Thames could not come up the river.
In England, the frost lasted from 15th November to 10th February. The River Thames frozen down to Gravesend.[47, 93]
In England in the year 1434, a great frost began on the 24th of November, and held till the 10th of February, following; whereby the River Thames was so strongly frozen, that all sorts of merchandizes and provisions brought into the mouth of the said river were unladen, and brought by land to the city.
In 1433, the River Thames and all other rivers of England and Scotland froze over; the Seine, Rhine and Danube rivers were closed to navigation early in December. The Dardanelles and Hellespont froze, as did many bays and inlets of the Mediterranean. Ice formed in Algiers, Algeria and the Strait of Gibraltar was almost impassable from drift ice.
The frost began in Paris, France towards the end of December 1433, and continued during 3 months, less nine days. It recommenced towards the end of March, and continued until the 17th of April. The same year it snowed in Holland [now the Netherlands] forty consecutive days.[38, 60]
During the winter of 1433 – 34, the frost began on 31 December 1433 and persisted for three months minus nine days. The frost reappeared at the end of March and continued until 17 April. The snow was higher than six – feet in the streets of Carcassonne in the Languedoc region of southern France. Winter ruled in the city for three months.
In 1434, it snowed in the Netherlands and in Paris, France for almost 40 days in a row.[58, 80]
In 1433, the winter was very severe again in Germany.[47, 62, 93]
In 1433, there were severe frosts, when the large fowl of the air sought shelter in the towns of Germany.
In 1434, all the rivers in Northern Europe and Germany froze. The River Thames in England froze at Gravesend.
During the winter of 1433 – 34 [in Western Europe], “The frost began at the end of December and lasted three months less 9 days, the frost began again at the end of March, and lasted until Easter, which this year fell on the 17th of April.” In Holland [now the Netherlands] it snowed 40 days in succession. On 25 April and the following night, there was such a heavy snowfall accompanied by extreme cold, that the greater part of the [grape] vines in Austria, Swabia [region of Germany], and Hungary were destroyed. This winter has been named in England, “the big chill”; the cold lasted from 24 November 1433 until 10 February 1434.
Source: "A Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events" 7th Edition, by James A. Marusek; pp. 338 – 339
The Warmunists of Bern, trying to understand pre-warmunist times:
“The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality.”
Here they acknowledge the Grand Solar Minimum…
” Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing.”
Next, they used models lacking the Svensmark mechanism – i.e. unphysical models modeling a fantasy earth… and found that in the fantasy world, cold happens sometimes, by chance…. which tells us nothing about the Earth.
” Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.”
Accordingly, their conclusion applies to Fantasy Earth, not to Earth.
Notice that their models create a LIA *BY CHANCE* !!!! Now I’d call that a pretty massive variation. IOW – no matter the effect of human CO2 emissions – if *THAT* is the size of variation their models allow for, we can get glaciers tomorrow at our doorstep or we can get palm trees, it’s ALL up for grabs, so why again are we throwing away 28 bn EUR a year in Germany alone for some piddly wind turbines? To do WHAT? The warmunist computer gods say ANYTHING’s possible ANYTIME! The warmunist demiurge.
…also, what the Bern warmunists implicitly postulate is : The occurences of the Wolf / Spörer / Maunder minima (
) and the LIA appeared COINCIDENTALLY. The absence of Grand minima and gradual warming up to current warm times appeared, again, COINCIDENTALLY.
Thank you I’ll go with Svensmark any day – it saves me from believing in complete absurdities.
This is scientific anarchy and a complete dead end! No cause and effect in climate science? They need to rediscover Marx’s historical inevitability and apply it swiftly to their field before things get completely out of hand …
And here it is finally, the impossibly convoluted mechanical contraption exposed to the corrosive elements of the ocean that shall save us from certain slight warming in the future: The Manchester Bobber.
Works wonderfully in Computer Water!:
“… it’s probably a very good thing the 20th century saw high solar activity, but a bad thing that we may be starting an extended period of low solar activity.” – P.G.
And an even worse thing that we are squandering Trillion$ that will not be available to deal with another mini ice-age when (not if) it occurs.
“It’s time to end the hysterics.”
Sorry, insufficient opportunities for graft. *)
*) credit Glenn Reynolds at
We are in a minimum, and at least for the Tibet Plateau that means drought.
Sure enough, he called it.
And, you know what that means! Yup. The AGW loons at the Huffington Pest are howling at CO2.
When there’s real science, the eco-nuts are AWOL, as usual.
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There were two solar minima in what gets lumped together as the Spörer Minimum, one from the 1430’s, and another from the 1550’s.