Europe To See Winter Extend Well Into March As Another Cold Polar Blast Approaches

German online weather site wetteronline.de here warns that winter is set dash any hopes of an early spring in Western and Central Europe.
Europeans in general enjoyed a mild winter this year. But apparently it looks like it’s set to get colder and snowier as the calendar turns to March.

The site writes that the mild weather of the past weekend will be pushed out of Central Europe by Arctic wind and snow by Wednesday, as the following wetteronline chart illustrates:

Chart by http://www.wetteronline.de/14-tage-wetter

The reason for this of course is global cooling. Just kidding.

The late winter will be due to a low over positioned over Scandinavia and a high over Iceland. The two systems will act to pump polar air over a western and central Europe that is by now now longing for signs of spring. The gardening tools and are going to have to wait awhile longer.

Wetteronline.de says that today will see very springlike temperatures down in southern Germany, with readings reaching above 15°C. But it adds the weather will cool with each passing day – with “snow reaching down into the lowlands” already by Tuesday. It warns of heavy snowshowers by midweek.

Video by: http://www.wetteronline.de/14-tage-wetter

The good news is that Europe will have a chance to dry out as high pressure pumps in drier air. Early March is forecast to be more on the wintry side. Wetteronline writes of “snowfalls down to the lower elevations with high temperatures near 5°C likely“.

71 responses to “Europe To See Winter Extend Well Into March As Another Cold Polar Blast Approaches”

  1. oeman50

    Don’t you folks have any groundhogs in Germany?

    1. yonason
  2. sod

    I just spend a weekend with some skiing in austria. The< really hate this winter.

    Please stop hyping every cool spell of a day or two. The facts will show a horrible winter for anyone interested in "cold weather".

    1. Colorado Wellington

      Pierre wrote: “Europeans in general enjoyed a mild winter this year.”

      sod, you must spend more time outdoors and less time sitting. I understand that hemorrhoids are very painful and make people argumentative and unable to concentrate on reading. I know it’s hard for you to not get excitable about every post here but go for a nice walk while it’s mild outside and relax. The Austrians will be fine and you can save the planet when you get back.

    2. AndyG55

      Say what??

      Don’t tell me there is still snow in Austria !!! Amazing !!!

      Please ask your AGW scammers to stop hyping the occasional warm day.

    3. yonason

      Too warm?

      Too little snow?

      Did you think to put down your drink, put on your jacket and go outside?

      Alternatively, maybe you just picked the wrong resort?
      http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/30438616

    4. DirkH

      We had an El Nino, sod. Nothing of this is surprising.

      1. Colorado Wellington

        True, but we know that such arguments will not stop sod from demanding Goldilocks weather for Alpine ski resort business operators. Having met some over the years I know that most of them understand the cyclical nature of their highly seasonal businesses and have more realistic expectations about winter weather than sod. They don’t like poor seasons but they’ve been there before. Besides, I am hearing that the main problem in the lesser known resorts had been their traditional lower income clientele’s skittishness because of the economy and those difficulties didn’t start this winter.

  3. tom0mason

    Indeed a global view of temperature and wind from nullschool.net site does look as if Europe may get a little chilly.

  4. sod

    Look, this is february in austria. Happy skiing!

    http://www.onthesnow.com/austria/webcams.html

    I have linked this blog post from a person that spends enormous time on the mountains before.

    http://www.martinballuch.com/der-schneeaermste-winter-seit-menschengedenken/

    And i was on a mountain hut with a tour guide doing snowshoe walks. He explained that few people come to the mountains, if their is no snow at all at their homes (the winter hype of some snow at home drives them to the mountains).

    When i went to rent my ski, we were hesitating to order them for two days,. The guy there immediatley told us that he understand st, as they always get rain the day after they got snow. And indeed, basically all snow vanished apart from some muddy remains on the northern side. The parking space was basically empty.

    Ski resorts need plenty of snow in autumn or early winter. This gives a basis to later snow, which will be much harder to melt and can withstand a couple of warm days or some rain, refreezing again.
    They also need the early snow to take advantage of christmas and carneval holidays. and they need cold weather in the hometowns of their tourists, to motivate them to go skiing.

    This year, the all of this failed and a couple of cold days can not compensate a single point of these!
    Without such a basis

    1. David Johnson

      What is your problem boy? the post clearly said it has been a mild winter to date but that a cold spell may be coming. Why do you get all uptight about this?

      1. Colorado Wellington

        The tightness could be a symptom as explained above, and yes, sod should deal with it before it gets much worse.

      2. sod

        “the post clearly said it has been a mild winter to date but that a cold spell may be coming. ”

        That is, what posts here have been saying all winter long by now. You can filter it out by clicking the “weather” category on the right sidebar.

        If you constantly claim “it is warm so far, but now it is getting cold” you are misleading people all the time.

        1. Colorado Wellington

          Calm down, sod, you sound like a toddler having a tantrum because he can’t get what he wants the moment he wants it. Mild February weather happened many times before. I skied in the rain in the 1960s and I remember walking with friends up the mountainside to find a patch of snow under the edge of the woods because there was none under the lifts. How old are you, kiddo?

          Also, are you saying that Pierre is misleading people and the expected cold spell is not coming?

          1. yonason

            Also, are you saying that Pierre is misleading people and the expected cold spell is not coming? – Colorado Wellington

            If he is, so’s this weather service:
            http://www.wetteronline.de/14-tage-wetter
            Spätwinter weicht nicht so bald.

            aside – That’s your normal Winter? Fhose temps are what I was used to for Spring, most of my life.

          2. DirkH

            “If he is, so’s this weather service:”

            And, reality is a part of the conspiracy as well. 10 degree temperature drop in Munich yesterday, snow today. Around 0 deg C (32 F) now.

            Munichians / munchkins? are complaining about the cold, that is, the 50% that didn’t immediately call in sick. I find it pretty balmy.

          3. yonason
        2. David Johnson

          And there have indeed been some cold spells this winter.

    2. DirkH

      We had an El Nino, sod. Nothing of this is surprising.

      They let eleven year olds do mountain walks?

      1. yonason

        Probably well below the freeze line, where there will obviously be mud. Above that (1000 to 3000 meters, depending on location) there’s plenty of skiing, from what I could find.

        Even the BBC is optimistic.
        http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/30438616

        But, as always (SOD TAKE NOTE!!!);
        “Check the latest avalanche forecasts, as the risk is set to remain high with all of the new snow landing.”
        Would not want you to get hurt. Really!

    3. Colorado Wellington

      It’s good to know where you go for unbiased information, sod:

      Martin Baluch
      —————————————-
      Tierrechte & Demokratie in Theorie & Praxis

      “Weil wir so energielastig leben – und dazu gehört ganz zentral der hohe Fleischkonsum! – ändert sich für alle Wesen der Zustand dieser Welt in einer völlig unkontrollierbaren Weise.”
      —————————————-
      Animal Rights & Democracy in Theory & Practice

      “Because we live so energy-heavy – and that includes most importantly our high consumption of meat! – the condition of this world gets altered for all beings in a totally uncontrollable way.”
      —————————————-

      I don’t know this Austrian guy who clearly loves his doggie but no more Weißwürschtl and “high-carbon footprint” trips to the Alps for you, sod.

      1. sod

        “It’s good to know where you go for unbiased information, sod:”

        Balluch is not neutral. But he knows an awful lot about the mountains. He also is in general agreement with what everybody local has been telling me last weekend.

        Most likely he has also been painting all that green onto the snow-cams?

        http://www.onthesnow.com/austria/webcams.html

      2. yonason

        “…this Austrian guy who clearly loves his doggie but no more Weißwürschtl” – Colorado Wellington

        Dogs, like people, are “meat eaters” by nature. Never trust a man who feeds his dog granola.

  5. yonason

    “i was on a mountain hut with a tour guide doing snowshoe walks.

    And indeed, basically all snow vanished apart from some muddy remains on the northern side.” – sod

    Snowshoeing in the mud? Whatever floats your boat.

    1. sod

      “Snowshoeing in the mud?”

      Trip of the second day got cancelled of course. What was your point?

      Stop ignoring the facts and take a look at the “on the snow” webcam pictures i posted above (and that is with some “beginning of the week snow fall” added already again!).

      http://www.onthesnow.com/austria/webcams.html

      as i am trying to tell you for some time now, this “snow come, snow goes” is not a business model for them. We even had a few snow flakes here this afternoon, but it is gone already again.

      They would have needed snow on the weekend. but they lost half of saturday and all of sunday. a little snow on tuesday will not wind them the next weekend(i had the chance to go back for some skiing with the kids but will now not do it. Others wont show up, because they have not seen snow at home at all).
      They need a full parking space on saturday/sunday. Not empty ones.and 15°C (Sunday) is just killing their business. You could simply watch the snow vanish in rain, warm wind and sun.

      1. David Johnson

        This is not unusual and please calm down sonny.

      2. yonason

        ““Snowshoeing in the mud?”

        Trip of the second day got cancelled of course. What was your point?”
        – sod

        It’s your imagery. I was just having some fun with it.

        Besides, what were you doing on the slopes, anyway? You’re the one who told us the skiing would be lousy this year.

  6. Modelle: Es bleibt spätwinterlich kalt – Märzwinter 2016 in Sicht! – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung
  7. sod

    I would really urge everyone to take a look at the “wo bleibt die globale Erwaermung” blog.

    https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.wordpress.com/

    There you can learn everything about “cold winter”, icy surprises”, global cooling, a cooler January, cold wave in february, icy winter weather in january, heavy snow in the alps, sibirean cold in europe, brutal winter in december, ….

    and then please check the facts and find out what really happened!

    1. David Johnson

      And I could point you to all the failed UK Met Office forecasts for barbecue summers, warm winters dry summers, dry winters and wet winters.

      1. yonason

        I remember that eople died in at least one winter in the UK, because the Met Office forecast warm winters, and they weren’t properly prepared for the icy roads.

  8. NafetsZ

    @sod
    May I ask, where you have been on your ski trip?

    Living in the hearts of the Alps, Tyrol, I really can not confirm what you are sayng. Yes in December the snow conditions were less than ideal, and to be honest, they were terrible. But since Mid-January they are really good. We are getting a lot of snow in the mountains and also in the city there were some days with snow cover, and it looks like were a getting some more this week.

    1. sod

      “@sod
      May I ask, where you have been on your ski trip?”

      Sure. i was at a small skiing resort in Bregenzer Wald. I go there every year, for at least 10 years. I have seen years with plenty of snow and years with no snow at all (during my stay).
      All of this is normal. The problem are blog posts predicting an imminent super winter basically every month, which do not get corrected if it turns out to be different.

      I spend plenty of time with a tour guide, who complained about this winter. If i speak to the guy renting skis, i expect a cautious optimistic outlook (if there is the slightest reason for such a position). Instead he said: “we might get some snow beginning of the week, but what will happens next weekend, nobody knows. This year we always get rain/sun after each snow”.

      And i do not expect people to just accept my words. I linked the ski-cams (which now show more snow again, as the “beginning of the week snow” did happen), but which simply do not show great ski conditions (or a massive winter event, like predicted!).

      I also linked to the Balluch article, explaining the situation (lack of early snow does also change later snow events).

      1. yonason

        The only one of the 12 out of 17 that are open that fits your description in Bregenzerwald, is this one:
        ====================================================

        Town = Bezau Vorarlberg

        Ski Area = Seilbahn Bezau – Skigebiet Niedere

        Mountain snow depth = 90 cm
        Skiing quality = Perfect

        Valley = No Snow
        =====================================================

        1. sod

          “The only one of the 12 out of 17 that are open that fits your description in Bregenzerwald, is this one:”

          I was not in Bezau. It is a little creepy, if you try to figure out where i was and it is even more creepy, if you come to false conclusions.

          1. yonason

            @sod

            Methinks Sod Doth Protest Too Much.

            I didn’t say you were there, and I don’t care if you were or weren’t. I just said that it was the only location for which your story could have been verified as being even partially true. If there is more information that I don’t have, then my conclusion may be “incorrect,” but given the facts at hand it can’t be logically “false.”

            What’s “creepy” is that there are inconsistencies in your narrative, and your getting defensive and being offended by my pointing them out.

          2. Colorado Wellington

            “little creepy … more creepy”
            Paranoia, sod destroyer …

            ——————–
            “Doctor, doctor, help me please, I know you’ll understand
            There’s a time device inside of me, I’m a self-destructin’ man
            There’s a red, under my bed
            And there’s a little green man in my head

            Silly boy, you self-destroyer

            Paranoia, the destroyer
            Paranoia, the destroyer
            Paranoia, the destroyer”

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_57hFyRY8E

          3. sod

            What are you trying to tell me? where is your argument?

            This skiing season is not good in the lower skiing resorts in Austria. The reason is a warm January, with lots of rain below a certain heights.

            http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/jaenner-2016-mild-feucht-und-in-tiefen-lagen-wenig-schnee

            In Germany, you can also see that conditions are bad.

            http://www.bergfex.de/baden-wuerttemberg/schneewerte/

            If you click the locations, you can see the status of the cross country ski tracks. This will tell you much more, than the information about a northern mountain side in Austria or Germany for skiing (these will have snow, when no other place has, partly also because of snow cannons).

            Even if we get a huge amount of snow somewhere next monday, it is simply unclear if this will have any meaning, as it might simply melt fast again.

      2. NafetsZ

        @sod
        “And i do not expect people to just accept my words. I linked the ski-cams (which now show more snow again, as the “beginning of the week snow” did happen), but which simply do not show great ski conditions (or a massive winter event, like predicted!).”

        But I, living in Tyrol, can not confirm this claim. The opening of the season in December was very bad. But since the new year we are getting a lot of snow and since mid January the ski conditions are very good in our resorts.

        1. sod

          “But I, living in Tyrol, can not confirm this claim. The opening of the season in December was very bad. But since the new year we are getting a lot of snow and since mid January the ski conditions are very good in our resorts.”

          Thanks for your reply. I am glad for my friends in Tyrol, if they have a good winter.

          But there is a problem with your information about snow in Tyrol.

          Basically, i am using the austrian border region to germany as a proxy for cold/snow in Germany. The logical structure of my argument works like this: If even the austrian border region to germany does not have enough snow/cold weather, then Germany will have even less. And that is, what everybody is confirming. Starting with the tour guide (he is based in the black forest) and also snow reports from Germany:

          http://www.bergfex.de/baden-wuerttemberg/schneewerte/

          The argument does not work the other way round. If there is good snow somewhere in Tyrol (the highest mountains in austria), we can not derive any information about snow in Germany.

          You can see the difference between Tyrol and Vorarlberg by simply looking at the stats (starting with the sheer number of resorts!):

          http://www.bergfex.at/tirol/schneewerte/

          http://www.bergfex.at/vorarlberg/schneewerte/

          (and Bregenzerwald is the most northern and a lower part of Vorarlberg)

          1. DirkH

            sod 25. February 2016 at 7:37 PM | Permalink | Reply
            “Thanks for your reply. I am glad for my friends in Tyrol, if they have a good winter. ”

            So there’s an objective warmunist definition for what constitutes a good winter.

            So please tell us: What is the desirable global average temperature in absolute terms; deg C or K or F. Because, I have never found the warmunist definition of it, but it must exist, as they say that 2 deg C more than it spells doom.

          2. sod

            “So there’s an objective warmunist definition for what constitutes a good winter.”

            No. The objective fact is the temperature data. It was the hottest winter on record.

            But “sceptics” do not accept this objective fact. So we look at other proxies, and the one we seem to agree on is winter conditions as seen by skiing resorts.

            Go to Innsbruck in winter. see, how it feels to combine living in a city and having access to super skiing conditions all around you. Most people there will call this an objective version of “good”.

            “What is the desirable global average temperature in absolute terms; deg C or K or F.”

            Why are you trying to talk about global averages, when we are talking about a local phenomenon, for once?

            For a skiing resort, this is simple: good skiing conditions make a good winter. For the lower skiing resorts, this means low temperatures and early snow that lasts all winter long.

            You do not need to accept my word for it. Just talk to people there, they will tell you., what i tell you.

            ” have never found the warmunist definition of it, but it must exist, as they say that 2 deg C more than it spells doom.”

            It is utterly unclear, what global temperature is “good” for those border skiing resorts. But it is utterly clear, that a temperature rise above 2°C will wipe out their business. This should be easy to understand!

          3. DirkH

            “Why are you trying to talk about global averages, when we are talking about a local phenomenon, for once?”

            Because warmunists never specified the optimum global average temperature (but claim that 2 deg warmings is very bad indeed). So I want to know that number. As you are a card-carrying member of the warmunist cult I thought I’d ask.

            I’m very satisfied that you evade the question, as it shows your cult to be unscientific.

            “It is utterly unclear, what global temperature is “good” for those border skiing resorts. But it is utterly clear, that a temperature rise above 2°C will wipe out their business. This should be easy to understand!”

            Temperature X is unknown and unknowable but X+2 is deadly, as everyone should immediately accept? Sorry, Sod! You’re crazy!

          4. sod

            “I’m very satisfied that you evade the question, as it shows your cult to be unscientific.”

            I am not evading the question. Your question doesn t make any sense. Everybody can tell, if a coffee or soup is too hot. Nobody will be able to name the exact “perfect” temperature of a coffee/soup for a specific customer.

            Two problems of your question in this context are:

            1. How will a change to global temperature change local temperature at this skiing resort. Extremely difficult to answer.

            2. Obviously lower temperatures will benefit the skiing resort, but will also benefit other places, which could lead to a financial disadvantage. So we are searching for a perfect spot.

            It is obvious, that most places would benefit from temperature that is similar to long term averages. But you knew that already, or did you not?

            “Temperature X is unknown and unknowable but X+2 is deadly, as everyone should immediately accept? ”

            This is not crazy at all. This winter was very warm and this is causing plenty of problems to the low skiing resorts. adding another 2°C would of course be “deadly”.

            Your soup is already too hot. Now you want to heat it more? sounds crazy to me!

  9. yonason

    “I have seen years with plenty of snow and years with no snow at all (during my stay).
    All of this is normal.” – sod (above)

    OK, that’s fine, BUT, you also said…

    “There should be plenty of business opportunities to invest into skiing, in a colder world.

    In the real world, those skiing resorts are in panic.”
    http://notrickszone.com/2016/01/19/bogus-predictions-of-snowless-winters-are-back-but-reality-tells-very-different-story/#sthash.ft8dmIcH.dpuf

    So, are you saying they are in a panic because this winter didn’t get off to such a great start, and is currently spottily warm low down, and so a problem for some owners? Or are you saying they are panicking because there will be less snow overall in an allegedly anthropologically overheated world?

    The first one is a fact of life. The second is a warmist demented fantasy based on lousy models, politics, crony capitalism and tampered data.(see here about the data tampering.)

    I only have the weather reports, and the no., of open ski resorts to go by, and none of those currently reflect problems, which is why I’ve been questioning your painting all resorts based on the one you visited. But, as you yourself say, it’s just “normal.”

  10. Colorado Wellington

    So, to sum it up:

    Pierre posted that there was a generally mild winter in Europe and that a German weather service site forecasts that it will get colder and snowier going into March because of two systems directing cold air to Europe.

    sod got all excitable, accused Pierre of hyping the cold weather prediction and said that he spent a weekend in Austria where they hate this winter and that facts will show it was a horrible winter.

    After arguing with everyone for two days how horrible and unusual this winter was sod finally confessed that he went to Bregenzerwald in Vorarlberg like every year and that he experienced the same or worse snow conditions there before and considers them normal.

    So after a whole deluge of comments and arm waving we can reduce all his complaints and arguments back to this:

    sod didn’t like that Pierre wrote about this prediction for colder weather because he wrote about cold weather predictions before.

    As an aside, sod doesn’t know how to retreat gracefully. As anyone can see above, Pierre didn’t predict a “massive winter event” or “great ski conditions” but that doesn’t stop sod from insinuating that he did.

    Childish. Just childish.

    1. sod

      “Pierre posted that there was a generally mild winter in Europe and that a German weather service site forecasts that it will get colder and snowier going into March because of two systems directing cold air to Europe.”

      Sorry, you might want to reread the headline. It speaks of an ARCTIC BLAST, not of a few snowflakes. And that is the best, of what we got this week.

      There might be some snow on monday, but there is nothing really special in those predictions.

      The problem is, that this is not the first post on the subject.

      http://notrickszone.com/category/weather/

      We had the claim, that January is a cooling trend.

      the prediction of “Winter Has 78% Chance Of Being Normal Or Colder Than Normal!”,

      “Record Cold, Heavy Snow Bring Chaos, Death Over Northern Hemisphere”

      “The Worst Of Europe’s Winter May Still Be Ahead!”

      “Another Cold Spell To Western And Central Europe In Early February”

      and of course we had an “Early Winter: Deep Frost Rolls Over Central Europe ”

      If you have been reading headlines here and you then speak to the people who make their living on snow in the skiing resorts, you are in for a clash with reality.

      1. yonason

        So, you don’t like it when we report an expected or real cooling, however slight it might ultimately turn out to be**, BUT, you have no problem with FAKE warming of 0.6-0.8 degrees, concocted by manipulating the data that didn’t originally reflect it?
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gmc5w2I-FCA

        **As Colorado Wellington and others have observed, Pierre is only reporting what weather services are forecasting. If we get it wrong because they get it wrong, why aren’t you embarrassed to keep regurgitating the phenomenal perennial deliberate errors made by your warmist pals?

        ASIDE – I pointed out above that one of the 17 ski resorts in Bergenzerwald (12 of which were open) reported NO SNOW in the valley, but on the mountain the ski conditions were rated as PERFECT. And yet you keep harping on how terrible the ski conditions are everywhere. No they aren’t.

    2. sod

      “After arguing with everyone for two days how horrible and unusual this winter was sod finally confessed that he went to Bregenzerwald in Vorarlberg like every year and that he experienced the same or worse snow conditions there before and considers them normal.”

      you either do not get it or your trying top pretend to not get it.

      If you read this blog, or even worse the one pinging back above:

      https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.wordpress.com/

      your left with the impression that there was constant major snow/cold events coming in. But if you check the facts, you will be told that this winter was not great. And you cannot rewind history by adding the words “mild so far” hidden in the text of later posts.

      If you take the time to read some analysis, you will also find out, that people do not call the winter “mild so far”. The term they use is “no winter at all”.

      ” Mit Winter hat das aber weniger etwas zu tun und bestätigt nochmals den bisherigen Winterverlauf, welcher eigentlich keiner – im Sinne von langen Frostperioden und einer dicken Schneedecke – war.”

      http://www.wetterprognose-wettervorhersage.de/wetter-jahreszeiten/winter/wetter-winter-2015-2016.html

      and again, that is exactly what i was told in the alps. I am not saying more, but also not less.

      But do not just believe me. Look at the german skiing resorts:

      http://www.bergfex.de/deutschland/schneewerte/

  11. yonason

    WHEW! FINALLY!!

    1. yonason

      “Childish. Just childish.” – Colorado Wellington

      Well, that SHOULD have been the last word.

  12. sod

    “Do you know how to read?”

    My reading is fine, my writing is not very good though. so i will try to explain myself again.

    “in the sense of a long period of frost and a thick snow cover.”

    This two things are the common indicator of a real winter. I actually think that the latest report (Januray) from austria can explain the problem rather well:

    http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/jaenner-2016-mild-feucht-und-in-tiefen-lagen-wenig-schnee

    January 2016 was the warmest january on record. Snow cover was lower than average, much lower in the lower parts of austria. Temperatare was high, but the month was wet, which led to much less snow than usual at low heights and slightly more snow at high regions.

    “Yet, just where I live, down in the flat lands, we’ve seen at least three 1-week or so long cold episodes with snow and frost so far in 2016 alone. I can remember milder winters.”

    Well, the relevant months so far (november to January) were all record warm or close to record warm (second warmest). Real snow was basically AWOL before January. Calling the hottest (snowless) months on record “mild” is a little bit of a stretch. On average, it was not a relevant winter.

    So the remaining question is a simple one: can some short cold spells change this perception. And as Pierre is writing some rather analytic posts, i assume that we do not want to leave this to taste alone (from a car driving perspective, a few cold/snow days is more than enough!).

    So as Pierre brought up skiing in Swiss in a januray post, this will make a good indicator.

    http://notrickszone.com/2016/01/19/bogus-predictions-of-snowless-winters-are-back-but-reality-tells-very-different-story/

    So the question is: Can a few “arctic blasts” transform a “mild” season into a real winter (measured by looking at the effect on skiing resorts).

    My position is, that it does not. I have two arguments, an economic/psychological one and one based on laws of nature and physics.

    1. for a start, as i explained several times, the economics of skiing require a early winter. The low german skiing resorts make 60% of their business before the end of the christmas holidays. People test their equipment and get hungry for more. This is also the recruitment seasons for trips to the alps. A “winter mood” provides a full group for the snowshoe trip in february, no snow leaves the guide with a group of below 10. This winter, we basically had no snow during this time range.

    2. the natural aspects are also simple. Early snow will run through multiple melt/refreeze processes without completely melting (because temperature is generally low) . This leaves a hard layer, which basically is the base of most winter sport activity (later snow on top it provides the fun, but the hard layer is the basis). This hard layer keeps later snow from vanishing if there are a few warm days or a little rain. Without it, even (rather) thick layers of new snow (30 cm?) can vanish on a single bad day (this is what i did experience last weekend).

    1. Analitik

      That’s still only one part of the world that had a warm January. North America experienced very good snowfalls so your “non-winter” did not occur throughout the northern hemisphere.
      http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/23/winter-storm-east-coast-snow-blizzard-new-york-baltimore-washington-philadelphia

      Go back to making a fool of yourself on Euan Mearn’s site, Energy Matters, sod – it’s very amusing. In fact, I’d recommend all viewers here to have a look at his comical comments there – http://euanmearns.com/

      1. sod

        “That’s still only one part of the world that had a warm January. North America experienced very good snowfalls so your “non-winter” did not occur throughout the northern hemisphere.”

        Sorry, but this is about as wrong as things get. It is the other way round. January was the hottest january on this globe, even in the satellite record.

        http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/02/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-january-2016-0-54-deg-c/#comments

        The northern hemisphere, with an anomaly of 0.70°C blew through the roof.

        You can not just point at the single cold/snowy spot and ignore all of the rest.

      2. sod

        “Go back to making a fool of yourself on Euan Mearn’s site, Energy Matters, sod – it’s very amusing. In fact, I’d recommend all viewers here to have a look at his comical comments there ”

        I agree, please take a look at this fantastic subject on the blog mentionend above:

        http://euanmearns.com/el-hierro-now-up-to-41-hours-of-100-renewables-generation/

        You will learn, that a pretty big grid can run on wind and only wind alone.

        Wait another 10 years, and all those small diesel islands will have gone to 80% renewables or are planning to go 80+% renewables.

        1. Analitik

          Your interpretation of the report by Roger Andrews is ridiculous. Running for a period less than 2 days on “wind and only wind alone” is far from 80+% renewables when you look at the overall generation for the period since that trial was run.

          And try factoring in the staggering cost of constructing the pumped storage that makes the periods of “wind and only wind alone” generation possible. Far from being a “pretty big grid”, El Hierro has a peak demand of around 7MW, which is minute compared to any grid with an industrial load. So extrapolate from the small demand and short period covered by the El Hierro pumped storage to something approaching a sizable grid for an extended period of coverage for no/low wind and the storage cost becomes absolutely astronomical (as well as environmentally disasterous) to back up the wind generation.

          1. sod

            “Your interpretation of the report by Roger Andrews is ridiculous. Running for a period less than 2 days on “wind and only wind alone” is far from 80+% renewables when you look at the overall generation for the period since that trial was run.”

            The important part in your post is “trial run”. The system is currently still in trial mode. They curtail wind output at 7 MW (it is a 11.5 MW system) and they do not use the majority of water to produce electricity.

            Looking at a random data point (output today so far), we see that the system could have run another day on wind alone.

            https://demanda.ree.es/movil/canarias/el_hierro/acumulada/2016-02-27

            Diesel was only used to pump water. But even if we assume they need the diesel for grid stability (they do not, as we know from the test period with zero diesel and wind alone), we can look at the numbers: 1.5 Diesel in a 8 MW system is 80% wind. Welcome in the real world!

            “And try factoring in the staggering cost of constructing the pumped storage that makes the periods of “wind and only wind alone” generation possible. ”

            As you can see in the data, that “pump storage” is basically not used at all for electricity. And the cost is not staggering. They might even save cost, when they run it at 60-70% renewables.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Hierro#Energy

            “Far from being a “pretty big grid”, El Hierro has a peak demand of around 7MW, which is minute compared to any grid with an industrial load.”

            For a small island, 10000 inhabitants is pretty big. If you have read my post above, i simply said that all small islands will change to similar systems over the next 10 years. Just wait and see!

            ” So extrapolate from the small demand and short period covered by the El Hierro pumped storage to something approaching a sizable grid for an extended period of coverage for no/low wind and the storage cost becomes absolutely astronomical”

            Why would you want to have pump storage for extensive periods of time in a 80% wind system? Just do not throw away those diesel engines immediately.

            If you can reduce the diesel use to “long periods without wind” on an island like el Hierro, you will basically have no diesel use at all, compared to before the change.

          2. Analitik

            look at the numbers: 1.5 Diesel in a 8 MW system is 80% wind. Welcome in the real world!

            Do you realise that the figure you are quoting is the INSTANTANEOUS output of the system at the point of the slider? It is not the cumulative generation for that day.

            And what about the hydro component? The negative from the pumping which is normally occurring means that the total demand was actually less by that amount. If we find your data point where the wind is 6.5MW and the diesel is 1.5MW (5:40am on the 27th), you will see that hydro component at that time is -4MW so the system size was actually 4MW giving a net wind + hydro contribution of 62.5%

            As you can see in the data, that “pump storage” is basically not used at all for electricity. And the cost is not staggering.

            I see – from your viewpoint, 84 million euro is not staggering. The tax payers of Spain must love your economics.

            i simply said that all small islands will change to similar systems over the next 10 years. Just wait and see!

            All small islands will get bankrolled 80 million euros (or the equivalent)? Where is all this money going to come from? Spain has basically bankrupted itself subsidizing renewable generation. What other countries are going to throw away money for a relatively small reduction in running cost?

            Why would you want to have pump storage for extensive periods of time in a 80% wind system? Just do not throw away those diesel engines immediately.

            If you can reduce the diesel use to “long periods without wind” on an island like el Hierro, you will basically have no diesel use at all, compared to before the change.

            Don’t you realise that the pumped storage is necessary to stabilise the grid? Without it, the output fluctuations from the wind farm would make the system stability so poor as to be useless. Look at all the measures that King Island needs to stabilize their tiny grid since they don’t have the geography for a sizeable pumped storage system.

            You want to include things when they are favorable to your viewpoint and discount them when they are not. Too bad that the real work doesn’t work that way – engineers have to deal with the total situation and can’t just cherry pick that portion which suits them. Economically, it should be the same except that subsidies to renewables have distorted things so badly that renewables APPEAR to make sense but in the total picture the tax and rate payers end up paying out huge amounts for things that cannot support themselves

          3. sod

            “Do you realise that the figure you are quoting is the INSTANTANEOUS output of the system at the point of the slider? It is not the cumulative generation for that day.”

            Sorry, but this is wrong. a cumulative generation over the day would be measured in MWh. But the diesel production was really at about 1.5 MW all day long (with wind between 6 and 7 MW).

            https://demanda.ree.es/movil/canarias/el_hierro/acumulada/2016-02-27
            (you can click wind and water off on the left side, then you see the flat diesel output)

            “If we find your data point where the wind is 6.5MW and the diesel is 1.5MW (5:40am on the 27th), you will see that hydro component at that time is -4MW so the system size was actually 4MW giving a net wind + hydro contribution of 62.5%”

            I do not understand your calculation. Negative hydro is NOT a “contribution” to covering power demand. And we simply know, that basically all that water pumped up goes to irrigation and not to producing electricity. Hydropower did not provide a single positive MW on that entire day!

            “I see – from your viewpoint, 84 million euro is not staggering. ”

            I have seen 54 and 64 million as costs for the project. It is saving about 4 mio $ in Diesel per year. Sounds like an ok Investment to me.

            “All small islands will get bankrolled 80 million euros (or the equivalent)?”

            No. All small islands will start by going 40% wind, reducing their costs immediately. Then they will add solar, also with an immediate price effect. And then they will start working on storage.

            “Don’t you realise that the pumped storage is necessary to stabilise the grid? Without it, the output fluctuations from the wind farm would make the system stability so poor as to be useless”

            I do not see water stabilising the grid on that day at all (unless you talk about stabilisation by taking up unneeded power). King Island is burning such power with a transistor.

          4. Analitik

            I do not understand your calculation. Negative hydro is NOT a “contribution” to covering power demand. And we simply know, that basically all that water pumped up goes to irrigation and not to producing electricity. Hydropower did not provide a single positive MW on that entire day!

            The hydro power is the NET output of the turbines and pumps. They are almost certainly running the pumps at a continuous rate and altering the hydro output to stabilise the grid (leading to variations in the negative hydro production as the turbines offset the pumps).

            The continuous pumping indicates that the water is flowing back down from the upper reservoir to the lower one either through the Peltons or via spillways else the small lower reservoir would have been emptied in a few hours – the power used for pumping is nothing to do with irrigation but for load balancing since the wind power cannot be controlled.

            I have seen 54 and 64 million as costs for the project. It is saving about 4 mio $ in Diesel per year. Sounds like an ok Investment to me.

            Those figures were the initial budgets for the project. Nuclear plants are not the only projects that go over time and budget. As for the 20+ years of payback time being “ok”, have you ever heard of debt, interest and opportunity cost? The Spanish taxpayers (and ex-taxpayers, now unemployed) certainly do.

            King Island is burning such power with a transistor.

            Resistor bank, plus a big lead acid battery (after the leading edge vanadium redox battery failed) and big flywheels on the diesel generators (to smooth out the wind turbine fluctuations as well as providing power when the wind isn’t blowing and the battery has gone flat).
            http://www.kingislandrenewableenergy.com.au/project-information/overview

            Too bad there are no costings available for this installation

          5. sod

            “The hydro power is the NET output of the turbines and pumps. They are almost certainly running the pumps at a continuous rate and altering the hydro output to stabilise the grid”

            I do not think that this is a relevant factor. It takes only a small amount to keep the machine rotating.

            “After synchronizing the generators, the turbine jets will be
            closed (Fig.1. No flowoperation). At this stage, the machines will be
            rotating at the rated speed, and the synchronous generators will be
            operating as no-load motors. The power consumption in this
            operation mode will be very low (circa 2% of rated power), with
            only the power needed to compensate for the mechanical, iron and
            ventilation losses. If reactive power generation is required, this
            power consumption will be larger.”

            http://euanmearns.com/el-hierro-now-up-to-41-hours-of-100-renewables-generation/#comment-16253

            “the power used for pumping is nothing to do with irrigation but for load balancing since the wind power cannot be controlled.”

            The wind power is controlled. Just look at today. It is about as stable as any electricity source can get!

            https://demanda.ree.es/movil/canarias/el_hierro/acumulada/2016-02-29

        2. DirkH

          “You will learn, that a pretty big grid can run on wind and only wind alone. ”

          Oy Vey.

    2. yonason

      ““Do you know how to read?”

      My reading is fine, my writing is not very good though.” – sod
      ____________________________________________________________

      I was debating with myself whether to inform you of the latter. Thanks for saving me the trouble.

      As to the former, an inability to write clearly indicates an inability to think clearly. And, if one can’t think clearly, one is only fooling oneself if he thinks he can thoroughly comprehend what he reads.

      1. sod

        “As to the former, an inability to write clearly indicates an inability to think clearly.”

        Look, i am ready to learn. But so far, i have not seen any evidence trying to counter my position.

        Look at the Januray report from Austria again:

        The snowcover numbers are just horrible (and simply not affected by UHI effects).

        9 days of closed snowcover instead of 14 is already bad. but 9 days instead of 21 is horrible.

        The months was 1.3 °C warmer than a rather recent period (1981-2010) and the northern part of the alps was up to 2.8°C warmer than this period.
        You can not have good snow conditions in lower places, if it is 3°C warmer than normal. That is impossible!

        And the snow data is obvious: in the lower part of the north Austria had less than average snow. These are facts, please accept them!

        But as i said above, i am ready to learn. Can you link me to some low skiing resorts which are happy about this winter?

        1. yonason

          “Look, i am ready to learn.” – sod

          Good. There’s hope for you.

          “Can you link me to some low skiing resorts which are happy about this winter?” – sod

          I can’t guarantee they are telling the truth, but if they are then see here.
          http://www.tiscover.com/at/xlayout/guide/250490sy,en/objectId,RGN112426at,folder,SNOWREPORT,selTab,snow,selectedEntry,report/snowrpt.html

          There are several that list “valley snow” skiing conditions as “perfect” (as of this posting) – but do check right before you go.

          Sibratsgfäll Vorarlberg
          Sulzberg Vorarlberg
          Damüls Vorarlberg

          That’s just for the Bergenzerwald area, but click on the main “Snow report” and find whatever one you want, right before you go.

          I hope you find a good one, and you and whoever you go with have a great time.

          1. sod

            “There are several that list “valley snow” skiing conditions as “perfect” (as of this posting) – but do check right before you go.

            Sibratsgfäll Vorarlberg
            Sulzberg Vorarlberg
            Damüls Vorarlberg ”

            Please visit the region at last one time. Your internet knowledge is superficial, bordering useless.

            Mellau- Damüls, at least since the connection (partly by tunnel!) is one ofg the biggest and highest skiing resort in the region, with above 100 km of skiing range. They are so ric, they will import snow from Norway should they ever have too little.

            Tis is the utter opposite of a small/low skiing resort.

          2. Colorado Wellington

            sod, you are desperate.

          3. yonason

            “Tis is the utter opposite of a small/low skiing resort.”

            One ski resort’s valley is another’s mountain, I guess.

            All I know is what they post, as should have been clear from what I wrote. If what one calls a “valley” isn’t one, you’ll have to take that up with him.

            I do hope you find one you can enjoy.

          4. sod

            “One ski resort’s valley is another’s mountain, I guess. ”

            If you look at some numbers, you will see that this is true.Many German skiing resorts have their “top” at places where austrian resorts have their “valley”.

            “All I know is what they post, as should have been clear from what I wrote. If what one calls a “valley” isn’t one, you’ll have to take that up with him.”

            well, the problem is, That Mellau Damüls is the opposite of the skiing resorts that i am writing about. It is neither small nor low.

            and it actually claims to be the village with the most amount of snow in the entire world (about 9 m per year).

            https://www.skigebiete-test.de/skigebiet/damuels-mellau-faschina.html

            Basically every year a group of us (wanting to do serious skiing) will go there for a day. This means getting up early, traffic jams on the way, search for a parking space and a pretty expensive skiing ticket. But there is always good snow. and plenty of different things to do.

            Damüls was just a very bad pick.

  13. M E

    look up “Crabtree’s Bludgeon”

    (‘no set of mutually inconsistent observations can exist for which some human intellect cannot conceive a coherent explanation, however complicated’)
    along with Occams Razor and Hickams Dictum.

    Apply to all “projections” before reacting.