Huge NOAA Correction! 2016 Likely Will Not Even Be Close To Setting New Temperature Record As La Niña Kicks In

NOAA/CFSv2 strongly corrects ENSO forecast

Schneefan at German climate science site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de writes here that the NOAA’s ENSO model CFSv2 saw considerable deficiency with its recent forecasting, which not long ago foresaw ongoing global warming El Niño conditions for 2016.

What follows is the BOM Climate Model Summary from 16 March 2016 with the NOAA/CFSv2 prognosis:

Der Durchschnitt der ENSO-Modelle sieht Mitte März 2016 das Eintreffen von La Niña-Bedingungen (ab - 0,5 K und kälter) im August 2016. Quelle:

The mean is depicted by the lowest bar. In mid March many ENSO models were already predicting La Niña conditions by August 2016. The NOAA/CFSv2 is a clear outlier. Source: www.bom.gov.au/climatePacific-Ocean

The NOAA/CFSv2 modelers have in the meantime admitted to a cold bias in their programming, foremost at the equatorial in the Atlantic, which led to a false computation of the equatorial Pacific (ENSO) computation, as Dr. Roy Spencer of the UAH reported: Impact of CFSv2 Model Fix on 2016 La Nina Forecast.

The false, overly warm NOAA result is shown in the “Before fix” image below (left). The corrected version is depicted by the “After fix” image (right). Note the huge difference we see in the equatorial Pacific region. The chart below shows the anomaly from the mean:

Die Grafiken stellen die von NOAA/CFSv2 berechneten SSTA vor (links) und nach (rechts) der Behebung des Programmierfehlers dar. Quelle:

Screenshot: The charts by Dr. Ryan Maue show the projected SSTA by the NOAA/CFSv2 for September 2016 generated on 29 March 2016 before the error was corrected (left) and after the correction (right). Suddenly a La Niña appears in the forecast. Source: Impact of CFSv2 Model Fix on 2016 La Nina Forecast.

The Australian BOM Weather Services consequently removed the “warm” NOAA/CFSv2-ENSO forecast from its “ClimateModelSummary” (see chart above) and thus the mean forecast of the remaining ENSO models for August 2016 stands at -0.7°K, thus putting it clearly in La Niña territory:

BOM Climate Model Summary 29 March 2016 – without NOAA/CFSv2 forecast:

Der Durchschnitt der ENSO-Modelle - ohne NOAA/CFSv2 - sieht Ende März 2016 das Eintreffen von La Niña-Bedingungen (ab - 0,5 K und kälter) im August 2016. Quelle:

The mean of all models (bottom bar) – without the NOAA/CFSv2. The forecast is  -0.7 °K deviation in August 2016.  Source: www.bom.gov.au/climate/Pacific-Ocean.

The current CFSv2-ENSO prognosis is now approaching the mean of the other ENSO model forecasts (blue lines). Some models are showing very powerful La Niña conditions close to -3° K hitting later this year. Only the old, too-warm calculations (shown by the bold black dashed line) is falsely in the positive range:

Der Plot stellt die seit 29.3.2016 korrigierte ENSO-Pognose vom 1.4.2016 für die Abweichung der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen (SSTA) im maßgeblichen ENSO-Gebiet 3.4 für die kommenden Monate vor. Die aktuellen (korrigierten) Prognosen (blaue Linien) erreichen teils bereits im Juni 2016 La Niña-Werte von -0,5 K und kälter, im Herbst 2016 werden in mehreren Rechnungen berewits -2,0 K unterschritten: Eine kräfte kalte La Niña ist im Anmarsch. Die älteren (unkorrigierten) zu warmen Modelläufe halten den Durchschnitt derzeit noch (fälschlich) im positiven Bereich, dies sollte sich in den kommenden Tagen zunehmend ändern. Quelle:

The plot above shows the partially corrected ENSO forecast of 1 April 2016 for the SSTA in the ENSO 3.4 area for the coming months. The current (corrected cold) forecasts (blue lines) are, for some, showing La Niña values of -0.5°K and colder already arriving in June. In autumn 2016 many models are forecasting -2.0°K and colder! Preliminary indications are showing a powerfully cold La Niña is in the pipeline. Every new ENSO forecast is becoming suspenseful. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.html.

Schneefan writes that the global satellite data for the lower troposphere (TLT) from UAH are as expected headed down wards after having reached its peak of 0.83°K in February (March: 0.73°K), see: UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for March, 2016: +0.73 deg. C.

The GFS forecast for April 2016 also sees a considerable drop with the global 2m temperatures:

Der Plot stellt die gemessenenen und berechneten Abweichungen der globalen 2m-Durchschnittstemperaturen zum international üblichen modernen WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 dar. Nach einem von El Niño zeitversetzt verursachten Höhepunkt Ende Februar 2016 zeigen die globalen Temperaturabweichungen im März 2016 sowohl bei den bis 31.3. gemessenen als auch bei den bis 8.4.2016 berechneten Werten (schwarze Linie) deutlich nach unten, obwohl sie mit dem wärmenden NASA/GISS-Faktor “adjusted” (verfälscht) wurden… Quelle: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

The above plot shows the measured and calculated anomalies from the global mean temperature using the usual modern WMO 1981-2010 climate mean. The computed trend for early April (black line) is steeply downward, even though it is computed using the NASA/GISS “adjusted” (falsified) factor. Source: www.karstenhaustein.com.php.

Schneefan comments that the current unusual weak solar activity and the currently oncoming cold ENSO development will make it clear that the recent claims of a warming planet were more hype than anything else, and that the real trend is cooling over the coming years.

It’s still early to be predicting a La Niña of -3.0°K. Expect that figure to be corrected upwards. One thing is clear: La Niña arriving this fall is becoming an almost sure bet.

 

31 responses to “Huge NOAA Correction! 2016 Likely Will Not Even Be Close To Setting New Temperature Record As La Niña Kicks In”

  1. Joe Bastardi

    I do not agree with this 1) The warm start is way over anything so far b) there is a lag, while it will be cooler than the warm start, its still warm enough. I have been saying this el nino spike is coming but so is the la nina, but the effect, similar to post enso drops after 06-07, and 09-10 does not mature till 1-2 years later. In the NCEP record which is what I have been showing for the cooling and the warming, I think this is warmest year
    Peace

  2. the undertaker

    Joe Bastardi… is that you ????

  3. Ric Werme

    This is one of the few errors in mainstream “science” where the correction results in a lower temperature! (Note – it does have the effect of increasing the temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, but ENSO gets more attention except during the Atlantic hurricane season.)

  4. sod

    I agree (for once) with Joe Bastardi.

    we have 3 record months by now.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/04/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-march-2016-0-73-deg-c/

    It will take a strong and super fast la nina, to change this year into a cool one.

    1. John Silver

      And that is what is coming.

  5. DirkH

    Finally, German state media have produced their first climate-neutral, what you call it, crime story TV production. They DID still cause 80 tons of CO2 BUT they offset it by buying carbon indulgences.
    http://vorab.bams.de/ard-dreht-ersten-dreht-klimaneutralen-tatort/

  6. John F. Hultquist

    I seem to have a different view of El Niño and La Niña processes as regards the atmosphere. Prior to El Niño processes the ocean is getting shortwave solar energy (sunlight) and this slowly warmed water is slowly transferred to the western Pacific (the, so called, Warm Pool). An El Niño situation is when that warm water is spread across the ocean surface and the warmth thereof is transferred to the air above.

    It does not appear to me that La Niña conditions are the opposite. That is, the cooler surface waters are not injecting “cold” into the air. Whatever could than mean? Yes, that layer of air near the cold water can become cooler because warmth is transferred from it to the water. This is a different concept.

    Once the Warm Pool warmth has gone into the atmosphere then the processes that send that warmth to space apparently exceed, for a time, new additions from the ocean. Lower atmospheric temperature will decrease, but not because of some “refrigeration” aspect of La Niña.

    To expect a big drop in global lower atmospheric temperature from the La Niña processes is folly. Expect a drop from the El Niño highs but when things settle out the global average will be slightly higher, not lower.

  7. Edward.

    equatorial in the Atlantic, which led to a false computation of the equatorial Pacific (ENSO) computation, as Dr. Roy Spencer of the UAH reported: Impact of CFSv2 Model Fix on 2016 La Nina Forecast.

    No sh*7?

    Arguing the toss, over El Nino and a certain forthcoming La Nina, is so much intellectual debate. Much as it pains me to say it, I do hesitate to disagree with Joe but this latest analysis, tallies with what I perceive to be the truth. In that, La Nina is coming and sooner than you think.
    Yes Joe, I know there is usually a lag but I never believed the hype of “Super warmest evah El Nino” and it will die out more quickly – coz it was all hyped stats: in the first place.

  8. Harry Dale Huffman

    No one has ever explained why an El Niño should irreversibly warm the globe, and the experts’ expectations of a follow-on La Niña supports a healthy skepticism that it should necessarily do so, notwithstanding the supposed strong correlation between ENSO (or “multidecadal ocean oscillations”)and global temperature that is widely held, as an alternative to the “greenhouse effect” theory of global warming. El Niño is, in my view, merely another kind of weather event, or more correctly, the warm phase of an El Niño-La Niña up-down event (even if it is extended over 2 to 3 years)

    The bottom line for me, as a competent physicist, is that I simply no longer believe in the global temperature record as an accurate, objective measurement, since my precise confirmation of the utterly stable Standard Atmosphere model of the troposphere, in my Venus/Earth temperatures comparison, and the further revelations of systematic biases and even fraud in the adjustments made to the temperature records. That questionable validity of the temperature records was most recently confirmed for me by the swift replacement, just last year, of the temperature records that showed the famous, long-running “global warming pause” with a suddenly reconsidered, and wholly unvalidated, procedure that “erased” the “pause”. That is called “changing the facts to fit the theory”, and it is both scientifically criminal and totally incompetent.

    The global temperature records showing global warming are a complete scientific farce, in my view, and should not be taken seriously, except as evidence of official malfeasance by the “experts” touting them.

    1. mwhite

      During the warm phase of the PDO

      http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_1988.png

      Now that the PDO is entering the cool phase

      http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2005.png

      I believe that a La Nina is considered an exageration of neutral conditions.

  9. yonason

    SECOND GRAPH FROM TOP

    “The false, overly warm NOAA result is shown in the “Before fix” image below (left). The corrected version is depicted by the “After fix” image (right).” – P.G.

    Comparing the figures, it looks like they’ve also warmed areas that were previously cooler, and cooled areas that were previously warmer, so it isn’t clear to me whether anything has changed overall, or if so how.

  10. Wie “warm” wird das Jahr 2016? NOAA/CFSv2 korrigiert ENSO-Prognose stark nach unten! – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] Bastardi 2. April 2016 at 8:11 PM | Permalink | […]

  11. R2Dtoo

    Their “projections” are just 8 months out (J17), and range from -2.5 to 2.0K. What are the error bars on this mess? The “ensemble mean” has to be meaningless!

  12. Buddy

    You guys are so hilarious:) I’ll check back in September when the Arctic is at yet ANOTHER record low ice level. Will the cause of that be:

    1) Aliens
    2) It really isn’t low…NOAA, NASA, Japan meteorological association, and the Danish meteorological association are all PHOTSHOPPING the levels.
    3) Pixie dust….someone has spread pixie dust on the Arctic to make it disappear.

    I’ll be back in September to see which decision you have arrived at for the coming record low in Arctic ice.

    Surely the 2015 record high atmospheric temperatures didn’t have anything to do with it. And certainly the record warm ocean temperatures didn’t have anything to do with it.

    Have a great day chaps…:)

    1. DirkH

      So wait. You’re a warmunist and you feel great because it got warmer. But warming is bad for the planet. According to your doomsday cult. So you feel great because you’re right and the planet dies.

      Anyone see a psychopathology there? I never understood why warmunists don’t celebrate when it’s COLD.

    2. David Johnson

      You would make a good comedian, ever thought of it?

    3. yonason

      @Buddy

      Get out your magnifying glass. You’ll need it to show us the dramatic record low ice extent of 2015.
      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

      From 2013-2015 there was more ice in Septemver than virtually any in the previous decade (there’s a reason they don’t show you the data), with 2012 being the outlier.

      Look at their reference mean, and it’s stdev. If they showed the traces for all years since the curve shifted down, the stdev for the new set of data would be no larger than their 21 year “climate mean.” What that says is there was a shift downward, but the data before and after the shift are pretty much statistically identical. That’s important because it tells you the yearly variation is not increasing. It’s stable. There is no way to link that to CO2, but…

      …there is another, and bigger, player than CO2,the Gakkel Ridge. Volcanic activity along that ridge causes OBSERVABLE melting, as opposed to that cause by imaginary warmist unicorn-hockey
      .http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/heat-from-deep-ocean-fault-punches-hole-in-arctic-ice-sheet.html

      See also here
      http://sweetness-light.com/archive/could-volcanoes-be-melting-the-arctic-ice

      So, in summary, the Arctic is not experiencing dramatic new melting.
      What melting there is can be attributed a lot more convincingly to volcanic activity that to CO2.

    4. AndyG55

      “And certainly the record warm ocean temperatures didn’t have anything to do with it.”

      Oh dear, poor Buddy has just realised that the El Nino, now dissipating rapidly, affected the Arctic sea ice level.

      Guess what Buddy… next year there will be no El Nino. ! 😉

  13. Jamie

    I find these global alarmists such ignorant authoritarians. The idea that future predictions of the weather, one of the most chaotic systems known to man, is “settled science” is an insult to science. Any statement about the future of a chaotic system is, at best, a hypothesis. Future predictions about weather are not ‘facts’ nor are they ‘settled science.’

    The whole idea of ‘settled science’ reminds me of the Catholic Church at the time of Galileo. If you question our dogma you are a heretic. It is sad to see science, a very skeptical and rigorous discipline turned into a church-like cult.

    Another joke about the warmists, is that they refuse to add any variables to their models. They are stuck in 7th grade algebra, unwilling to admit the climate of earth may have 100s of variables affecting it. The only *important* thing affecting climate according to these anti-science warmists is the change of 200 ppb to 400 ppb of carbon in the air.

    It is sad because the whole warmist hoax is based on money. It is very unfortunate that these warmist dogmatists don’t follow the money trail. There is a trillion dollar carbon trading floor in Chicago, waiting for action, once cap and trade is passed. Companies like Goldman and BP have spent fortunes promoting this fake mime:

    ‘future predictions of the weather are settled science, along with their sole cause’

    These authoritative warmists need to ask themselves. Why doesn’t the media talk about mercury effects of hydrocarbons? Why doesn’t the media talk about Fukushima and the huge amounts of nuclear waste lying around the world. Why doesn’t the media talk about pesticides and their dangers? Why doesn’t the media talk about fracking and the green-house gas methane, and the toxic chemicals fracking sends into our water base?

    The reason is that it is profitable to not talk about these things; whereas it is profitable to push cap and trade and the trillion dollar carbon trading floor. So the PTB frighten everyone with ‘settled science’ and buy off politicians that parrot the ‘settled science’ mime and encourage cap and trade.

    Cap and Trade will only accomplish these things:

    1. Huge profits for the financial industry which will speculate on carbon credits as they do with oil and food now. Cap and Trade means that financial parasites will eventually own the air and be able to extract rent from the masses.

    2. Massive increases in utility bills. No more protection against gouging, since the utility company won’t gouge … they will just send checks to the financial oligarchy.

    3. Free rides and subsidies to other dangerous and toxic forms of energy, such as Nuclear and Fracking. (With its more effective greenhouse gas methane)

    4. Racial Genocide by pollution. Once a company buys carbon ‘credits’ they can legally put their dirty industry anywhere – usually a poor neighborhood. There will be no recurse for the poor, as long as the industrialist has paid off Wall St with carbon credit purchases.

    A cap-and-trade utopia is a hell for the average person. Only the rich will drive cars and be able to afford central heating and warm water, since utility bills will rise due to speculation on carbon credits. The poor will ride bicycles and rickshaws. Cap and Trade will reduce the people of America to a third-world nation, which is precisely what the elites want!

    1. DirkH

      “These authoritative warmists need to ask themselves. Why doesn’t the media talk about mercury effects of hydrocarbons? Why doesn’t the media talk about Fukushima and the huge amounts of nuclear waste lying around the world. Why doesn’t the media talk about pesticides and their dangers? Why doesn’t the media talk about fracking and the green-house gas methane, and the toxic chemicals fracking sends into our water base? ”

      Where have you been? The media love to talk about all of these til their blue in the face. At least the German media. But, NYT or LATimes as well. You know, all the Western media that is “progressive”. Gasland, the fake documentary anyone?

      *I* would love them to talk about the fact that MOUNTAINS are radioactive (because Granite contains Thorium) and that the OCEANS are radioactive. (beacause seawater contains Uranium and Thorium). The Japanese have even developed a technique to collect Uranium from seawater. It’s THAT bad.

      The planet hates us, I’m tellin ya!
      (Worst of all: Earth contains a huge NUCLEAR REACTOR. That’s why it’s hot.)

      Methane, the dangerous greenhouse gas, is produced by ORGANISMS! In SWAMPS! Obviously even the lifeforms of this planet want to boil us alive. It’s THAT bad.

      1. yonason

        Trusting warmist promises of rapid sea level rise, lance and his faithful steed make a fateful miscalculation
        https://reflectionsonriding.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/4f2b51196d8e8-preview-300.jpg

  14. Buddy

    yonason 3.

    Ahhhhhhh yes. The Gakkel Ridge. THAT must be the culprit my dear fellow. Why didn’t I think of that. The volcanic activity is eating away at the Arctic ice…..and then MAGICALLY eating away at the Greenland ice sheet as well.

    I did not realize the Gakkel Ridge went all the way down to Antarctica as well and is eating away the ice in West Antarctica.

    WHY DID’T I THINK OF THAT? I am SO STUPID…and it was SO OBVIOUS…..:)

    Keep fishing Yonason 3. You will need to go get some more bait…mate.

    1. AndyG55

      poor Buddy, the warming in the West Antarctic is purely LOCAL. a small round blob.

      To even pretend that it is anything “global” about it is hilarious in the extreme.

      And yes, there is significant volcanic activity under and around the West Antarctic, so much so that there are some areas in the area where the water is warm enough to swim without wetsuits.

      Your ignorance again rules your posts.

      1. AndyG55

        Buddy’s version of “global” warming.

        roflmao !!!

        http://www.cambioclimatico-bolivia.org/archivos/20130224013536_0.jpg

        1. yonason

          Hmmm, looks familiar for some reason.
          https://drawception.com/pub/panels/2013/3-23/19B8gKCCdM-4.png

          Global warming – a dream dreamed by a paranoid circus clown.

          Don’t worry world, they’ll save ya!
          http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/disney/images/3/3b/Dumbo-disneyscreencaps.com-4176.png/revision/latest?cb=20150730025415

      2. AndyG55

        versus the REALITY of Antarctic temperature trends.

        http://s19.postimg.org/gr1vmngvn/UAH_South_P.png

      3. AndyG55
      4. yonason

        The terrible awful truth about sea level.

        There’s not much to see there
        http://joannenova.com.au/2014/10/modern-seas-unprecedented-an-insult-to-geology-and-sea-level-research/

        Really! It’s almost boring.

    2. yonason

      “WHY DID’T I THINK OF THAT? I am SO STUPID…”

      Could very well be.

      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/05/collapse-of-unstable-west-antarctic-ice.html

      http://www.c3headlines.com/are-antarcticgreenland-about-to-totally-melt/

      But until I know for sure, I’ll just opt for obnoxious and malicious, which is quite obvious.

  15. yonason

    They are cooling the past.
    http://www.climatecommonsense2.com/2015/11/final-paris-data-adjustments.html

    Now NASA can exploit the consequences of that data tampering, by pretending that there’s a positive warming anomaly.
    http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/nmaps1.gif

    I doubt that the tampering was limited to that area.

    The perversion of science, and the blatant disregard for the law is staggering.

  16. oretaguniocuq