Current Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In Almost 200 Years …Planet At The Mercy Of The Sun

The following is the solar part of the latest post at Die kalte Sonne.
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The Sun in March 2016

By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

Our mother star was once again less active than normal in March. The observed solar sunspot number (SSN) was 54.9, which was about 2/3 of the mean value (82.5) for this month into the cycle. Here’s what the current solar cycle (SC) looks like so far:

Figure 1: The course of the current SC 24 since it began in December 2008, up to March 2016 (month 88) in red, the mean of the previous 23 cycles is shown in blue, and the similarLY (since month 73) behaving solar cycle number 5, which occurred from May 1789 to December 1810, shown in black.

 The accumulated sunspot numbers this far into the cycle are plotted as the anomaly from the mean for each cycle. It shows that the current cycle is one of the weakest on record:

Figure 2: The accumulated sunspot numbers for each cycle, shown as the anomaly from the mean, 88 months into the respective cycle, going back to 1755.

 SC 24 is the weakest since SCs 5, 6 and 7, a time known as the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830). It appears that the current cycle may very well wind up being weaker than SC 7 when it ends. Our sun is a very mediocre star of the spectral classification G2, similar to our neighbor star Alpha Centauri A. That is one of the reasons evolution had enough time to spawn intelligent life. A more active star most likely would not have allowed it due to the powerful solar winds that would “blow away” a planet’s atmosphere.

What follows is a beautiful picture from the Hubble space telescope:

Figure 3: The light blue star inside the “bubble” of dust and gases is very active. Through pressure it generates its stellar winds that shape a sphere that measures 10 light years in size. Near the surroundings of the star a planet with an atmosphere would be inconceivable. Photo source: NASA

So can single super flares (extremely powerful eruptions of a star’s surface) from the sun be excluded? A new study by a team of scientists led by Christoffer Karoff of the University of Aarhus in Denmark concludes: No – something of the sort could in fact happen! There are indications that in the year 775 a flare occurred, one that was much more powerful than anything we could expect in modern times, e.g. Carrington- Event 1859.

A massive explosion on the sun that could be 100 times more powerful is improbable, yet cannot be excluded. If such a flare hit the Earth, things indeed would get very uncomfortable because all power transmission lines would be impacted. Our modern energy and communication networks would be interrupted globally, and for a long time.

The requirement for this? A huge sunspot.

If one did occur, there first would be a warning period. But what precautionary measures could be implemented? Up to now we can only hope to be spared of such a massive solar flare of energy. In a sense the Danish study tells us just how dependent the Earth is on the sun’s power, its electromagnetic radiation, and its magnetic field.

Note: Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt is co-author of the book: “The Neglected Sun”.

28 responses to “Current Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In Almost 200 Years …Planet At The Mercy Of The Sun”

  1. Ronald C Henry

    I don’t see evidence that cycle 24 is comparable to the Dalton minimum cycles (5, 6, 7). Cycle 12 (1880s) seems to be the closest to cycle 24 by comparison of the 12 month smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number. I am not trying to be argumentative, I would really like to know how the authors come to the conclusion that cycle 24 is more like cycle 5 than cycle 12.

  2. frank

    I think they calculated the monthly, not smoothed SSN-anomalies ( the difference between the observed SSN and the average cycle, blue in their fig.1) for every solar cycle and then they accumulated these anomalies up to the actual month 88. This should be the calculation behind their fig. 2. In this figure one can see clearly the result they wrote down.

  3. mem

    “Through pressure it generates its stellar winds that shape a sphere that measures 10 light years in size.”

    Really? Since this is a no trick zone, why not present the possibility of an electrical phenomenon?

    1. frank

      Coze it’s not an electrical phenomenon! The full story: https://www.spacetelescope.org/news/heic1608/ .

      1. DirkH

        Since when is plasma not an electrical phenomenon?

  4. Publius

    Should checkout the work by David Lepoint on the subject of “Primer Fields” and it would start to explain how this all works and effects everything in our solar system. We live in an electric universe and when the flow of electric slows down along the spiral arms of the galaxy our sun will cool down and will have less sun spots as a result of less electrical excitement of the surface, this also effects magnetics of the sun and planets in the solar system.

    This tosses out the theory of the sun being a nuclear reactor and common sense says the dark spot/sun spot is a cool spot on the surface of the sun and we’re looking at the surface, just its obscured by the surrounding light from the sun so we cannot see the detail of the surface. If the sun were a nuclear reactor we would not see such spots as its would be glowing outward al the way from its core.
    Every time we make a new discovery we opened a door and learn how much more we do not know! A conundrum, with pile’s of question’s and seeking answer’s.

  5. DirkH

    German government admits that electric cars are uneconomic and nonsense – by deciding to subsidize them with 1 bn EUR (for the moment. Expect much much more. After all, Euros can be freely printed or robbed at gunpoint from the productive. As long as there is a SPDCDU. SPD: 20%. CDU 30%. Expect this to drop.)
    http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/wirtschaft/72026-1mrd-elektroautos

    1. DirkH

      …By the magick of Big Government, the billion EUR will deliver an “initial spark” that will then lead to a self sustaining electric car future.
      We know how well this works from the Wind and Solar revolution that we still try to jolt into existence with a form of electroconvulsive therapy using 28 bn EUR a year, and growing at 15% a year;
      also see other Big Government success stories like the flawless integration of Muslims into European culture, and the biggest of all, the thriving economies of Southern Europe under the Euro.

      IOW: This. Will. Fail. SO. HARD.

      1. Bernd Felsche

        Like the magic spark that gave life to Frankenstein’s monster.

      2. sod

        “…also see other Big Government success stories…

        IOW: This. Will. Fail. SO. HARD.”

        You do notice how VW and now Mitsubishi suffer from their own incompetence?

        A little bit of “big government”, doing real tests would have helped those criminal companies a lot!

        Mitsubishi now trading at 3.50€.

        http://www.n-tv.de/incoming/Nach-weiteren-Enthuellungen-brechen-Mitsubishi-ein-article17555976.html

    2. sod

      Other countries are moving towards a ban of non-electric cars:

      https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/apr/18/netherlands-parliament-electric-car-petrol-diesel-ban-by-2025

      The German car industry is in extreme danger of losing connection to the global market. The Diesel fiasco is only part of a rotten industry in great trouble.

      Car makers need to be pushed and pulled towards the electric car or they will simply end as reminders of a false business decision.

      1. AndyG55

        ROFLMAO. !!

        Electric cars are a tiny niche market, and will remain so for many, many years.

        Battery tech is advancing at a snails pace, and there is no indication that that will change.

        Liquid or gas fuel is the only quick refuel, sensible form of open road energy.

        The internal combustion engine is here for a long, long time…

        Do you use one?

      2. David Johnson

        And what action is the big government of the EU taking against VW? Bugger all in reality, it prefers only to tackle real or perceived malpractices by non EU companies a la Google, Microsoft etc etc. It stinks

  6. Buddy

    “The current solar cycle continues to be the weakest in 200 years.”

    And yet….the planet keeps warming. What happens WHEN the solar cycle turns up?

    Inquiring minds want to know….:)

    1. AndyG55

      The latter part of the 20th century was classed by real solar scientists as a Grand Solar Maximum.

      CO2 cannot cause the ocean warming that has resulted in the El Nino release of ocean energy in 1998 and 2015.

      Apart from that El Nino ocean COOLING which temporarily warms the atmosphere, there has been NO WARMING in the whole of the satellite data.

      Here is the graph of global temperatures before the 1998 El Nino… NO WARMING

      http://s19.postimg.org/f3dhdpmlv/UAH_before_El_nino.png

      And here is the graph of atmospheric temperature between the 1998 EL Nino and the start of the 2015 El Nino… NO WARMING (slight cooling)

      http://s19.postimg.org/nmwvbguyb/UAH_after_El_nino.png

      So you see, dum-bud, there is absolutely ZERO CO2 signature in the slight warming since the start of satellite data.

      None, Nada…. ZIP !!!

  7. Walter Horsting

    I have read about cycles 24-26 and 24-30 predicted to be much lower and impact on earth temps to be measured on two cycles considering the oceans massive heat sinks…electric cars should be paired with rooftop/carport solar, California now produces too much solar and sends its extra to Las Vegas at a $.08 KWH loss.

  8. Gus

    “>>> Our sun is a very mediocre star of the spectral classification G2 <<<"

    Don't talk down our sun. It is not a mediocre star at all. If you look at the distribution of stars in the Galaxy in function of mass, you'll find that our G2 sun is, in fact, quite distinguished. Most stars in the Galaxy are smaller and fainter. Our sun is in the top 10% by mass.

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  11. Oliver K. Manuel

    The Sun is the creator and sustainer of every atom, life and planet in the solar system, powered by the same source of nuclear energy as atomic bombs, nuclear reactors – NEUTRON REPULSION.

    The AGW scare is the direct result of a decision by frightened world leaders in 1945 to unite nations and national Academies of Sciences in order to save the world from nuclear annihilation by hiding the source of energy in atomic bombs from the public.

    1. Oliver K. Manuel

      Here are the experimental data and observations:

      https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy2.pdf

  12. Oliver K. Manuel

    F. W. Aston’s Nobel Lecture in DEC 1922 and P. K. Kuroda’s insight into the beginning of the world while standing in the ruins of Hiroshima in AUG 1945 led to our new understanding of the Sun as the Creator and Sustainer of every atom, life and planet in the Solar System:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Tribute_to_Paul_Kazuo_Kuroda2.pdf

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  15. Stephen Crothers

    Interesting. Here is why the Sun is condensed matter; not a ball of hot gas:

    Robitaille P.-M.,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Lg5eR7T61A&feature=share

    Here is his paper:

    Robitaille P.-M., Forty Lines of Evidence for Condensed Matter — The Sun on Trial: Liquid Metallic Hydrogen as a Solar Building Block, Progress in Physics, v.4, pp.90-142, 2013,
    http://vixra.org/abs/1310.0110