Deeply Cold North Atlantic, Weak Sun Could Lead To “Big Freeze” 2016/17 Winter …Like 1962/63!

German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de writes here on the upcoming Europe fall/winter and the unfavorable solar situation. What follows are some excerpts.

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Cold North Atlantic – weak sun: Icy 100-year winter 2016/17 like 1962/63?

In the first months of 2016, the North Atlantic has been significantly colder that the comparable El Niño year of 1998, and solar activity is the weakest in 200 years.

As a result could the winter of 2016/17 be one of the worst in a hundred years, like 1962/63 in Europe.

The following chart shows a clear cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the North Atlantic (35°N – 67°N, 55°W-0°) for the months of January to July 2016, compared to 1998.

Die Grafik zeigt den Vergleich der Abweichungen der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen (SSTA) der ersten sieben Monate in den beiden El Niño-Jahren 2016 und 1998. Die großen lilafarbenen und blauen Flächen weisen auf negative Abweichungen des Jahres 2016 gegenüber 1998 im nördlichen Nordatlantik hin. Quelle:

The above chart shows the difference of the deviation from the mean sea surface temperature (SSTA) for the first seven months in both El Niño years 2016 and 1998. 2016 is far colder than 1998. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.

Currently the North Atlantic is also much colder than normal when compared to the WMO recommended 1981-2010 climate mean:

Die Grafik zeigt die Abweichungen der Meeresoberflächentemperaturen (SSTA) der ersten sieben Monate im El Niño-Jahr 2016. Die großen lilafarbenen und blauen Flächen weisen auf negative Abweichungen des Jahres 2016 im nördlichen Nordatlantik zum WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 hin. Quelle:

Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.

What effects does the sub-cooled North Atlantic have, for example, on a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and on Europe’s upcoming autumn and winter?

First let’s take a look at the temperature deviation in Europe in fall 1998 and winter 1998/99, which saw a considerably milder North Atlantic as we presented earlier here! We wrote:

Instead, the fall of 2016 could be quite uncomfortable over large parts of Europe if it is like the fall of 1998…”

NOAA-Reanalyse der Abweichungen der 2m-Temperaturen in Europa im zweiten Jahr eines El Niño-Ereignisses wie 1983, 1998 und 2016. Die Durchschnittstemperaturen im Winter 1998/99 lagen in Deutschland und großen Teilen Europa überwiegend deutlich unter dem Durchschnitt. Quelle:

NOAA reanalyis of the 2m temperature deviation in Europe for the second half of the year of the powerful El Niño event such as 1983, 1998 and 2016. Fall 1998 temperatures over Germany and much of Europe were well below the international 1981-2010 climate mean used by the WMO. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.

Winter 1998/99 in Europe, however, was near normal:

NOAA-Reanalyse der Abweichungen der 2m-Temperaturen in Europa im zweiten Jahr eines El Niño-Ereignisses wie 1983, 1998 und 2016. Die Durchschnittstemperaturen im Winter 1998/99 lagen in Deutschland und Mitteleuropa weitgehend im Durchschnitt. Quelle:

NOAA reanalyis of the 2m temperature deviation in Europe for the second year of the powerful 1997/1998 El Nino, which is comparable to 2015/2016. Temperatures in winter 1998/99 in Germany and Central Europe were mostly near normal compared to the internationally accepted 1981-2010 climate mean recommended by the WMO. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.

North Atlantic is much cooler this year…

However the North Atlantic this year is much cooler than in 1998, and colder much deeper below the sea surface, as ARGO measurements show for a depth of 800 m:

Der Plot zeigt die Entwicklung der Wassertemperaturen von der Oberfläche bis 800 m Tiefe im Nordatlantik bei 59°N von 30°W bis 0°. Seit Beginn der Messungen im Jahr 2004 ist es bis zum Juni 2016 in allen Tiefen deutlich kälter geworden. Originaltext zum Plot:

The above chart shows the water temperature of the North Atlantic current down to a depth of 800m (extension of the Gulf Stream) at 59°N from 30°W to 0°. Since measurements began in 2004, the North Atlantic water has gotten much cooler at all depths. Original text on the plot: “Average temperature along 59 N, 30-0W, 0-800m depth, corresponding to the main part of the North Atlantic Current, using Argo data. Source: Global Marine Argo Atlas. Latest month shown: June 2016. Last diagram update: 7 August 2016.“ Source: www.climate4you.com/.

The reason for this are the multidecadal natural cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which switched from a cold to warm phase in the mid 1990s, and then back towards a cool phase since 2010, as the following chart shows:

Der Screenshot zeigt den natürlichen zyklischen Verlauf der Temperaturabweichungen im Nordatlantik von 1948 bis 2010. Nach einem Tiefpunkt Mitte der 1970er Jahre erreichten die Temperaturen ab Mitte der 1990er Jahre - auch um 1998 - in einer Warmphase stark positive Abweichungen (rote Farben. Ab 2010 ist eine deutliche Abkühlung zu erkennen, die etwa 30 jJhre andauern dürfte. Quelle:

Screenshot of the AMO from 1948 to 2010. There’s been a clear cooling since 2010, which will last about 30 years. Source: stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/all/.

Conditions during the “Big Freeze” of 1962/63.

Let’s take a look at the winters that occurred during the start of the last cooling-off period of the AMO in the early 1960s.

At this time Europe experienced the “Big Freeze” of 1962/63, when temperatures from December 1962 to February 1963 were a whopping 8°C below the mean over Central Europe:

Die NOAA-Reanalyse der2m-Temperaturabweichungen (TA2m) im Jahrhundertwinter 1962/63 in Europa am Bginn einer kalten Phase der AMO. Quelle:

The Big Freeze of 1962/63 in Europe, which occurred at the start of the AMO cold phase. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov.pl.

Low solar activity, QBO bode ill

The wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de site writes that solar activity also may bode ill for the coming winter: In 1962 solar activity was also strongly falling off, as it is now. In 2016 the solar activity is even weaker. A number of scientific publications show that periods of low solar activity are associated with harsh European winters.

Yet another factor boding ill for the coming winter is the so-called Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere above the equator. Read: Tropics Cool by 5 deg. F in One Week! (In the Stratosphere).

Mostly written by “Schneefan”
Translated by Pierre

 

24 responses to “Deeply Cold North Atlantic, Weak Sun Could Lead To “Big Freeze” 2016/17 Winter …Like 1962/63!”

  1. kurt76

    Not a mention of North America and Canada,did they suddenly get a tropical climate or something?
    I thought it was the states and their hat,that got the cold winters,yet all i hear is Europe.
    Not even a La Nina can cool things down over there it seems.
    I don’t believe for one second just by looking at how cold or warm the Atlantic is,you can tell what kind of weather any place will get.
    Nor can you say,”oh it happened back then so it will now.”
    I know it’s speculation,but i doubt when a big freeze happens,it will
    be the odd occurence just like summer of 1976 being so hot.
    Uk and many parts in Europe where they have a maritime climate,will keep having mild winters with the odd cold one,that’s what happens in a climate influenced by the ocean.
    It can give you extreme heat and extreme cold,neither happen often.

    1. Jan_Vermeer

      Yes we are blessed with a maritime climate.This includes Ireland, UK, Denmark, Southern Sweden ,many parts of Germany , Netherlands, Belgium, France etc.
      But Mainland winters are comparableor colder to a New England winter when the wind is mainly from the east because of the much higher latitude.
      But as Pierre said the statements from this German site are highly speculative.

      As someone who experienced many harsh Western European winters including the 1962/63 winter I would say that there is no reason that such an event could not occur again. Or 78/79 or 84/85 , 85/86 or the cold winters we had a few years ago, or the brutal 46/47 winter or the WW2 winters. etc. They will happen and authorities will be struck as by lightning, will be ill prepared etc, because it doesn’t fit in the Global Warming picture that has been painted by the same people and the media.

      Latest NOAA Constructed Analog for Winter 2016/17 does not show much colder than avg for Western Europe , but does seems to indicate a colder then avg 2nd half of the winter for USA/Canada

      https://s4.postimg.org/6akqjwgh9/NOAA_CA_Method_winter2016_17.jpg

      source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201607/carealtime.html

    2. DirkH

      kurt76 16. August 2016 at 4:22 PM | Permalink | Reply
      “yet all i hear is Europe.
      Not even a La Nina can cool things down over there it seems.
      I don’t believe for one second just by looking at how cold or warm the Atlantic is,you can tell what kind of weather any place will get.
      Nor can you say,”oh it happened back then so it will now.””

      2009/10 winters were during a strong La Nina. I had just discovered WUWT and tracked the La Nina via Anthony’s sea surface temperature resource page while Hamburg froze over two winters in a row.

      So let’s look do we see the La Nina in the SST now?
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/global-temperature/

      Yep. So here’s my advice to you: If you have a car make sure you have winter tires. Get an army Parka. Get winter gloves. Get good boots.

      1. DirkH

        Those years also saw some pretty savage Nor’Easters. Joe Bastardi would be the guy to ask how La Ninas affect continental USA.

        1. yonason

          He also has some words on the current heat wave in the Eastern USA.
          http://cnsnews.com/news/article/penny-starr/meteorologist-record-breaking-heat-wave-childs-play-compared-deadly-summers

          “…this heat wave is child’s play compared to the 1930s in D.C.,” Bastardi told CNSNews.com.

        2. yonason
          1. Green Sand
          2. yonason

            @Green Sand

            Thanks. And for that earth wind link, which I had lost.

      2. RickS

        2009-2010 was a moderate El Nino, El Nino only occurs in the Eastern Pacific, and I know, I live in Sunny Southern California !

        While El Nino’s do affect the World Climate, the far greater effects are felt on the North American West Coast, particularly California and Southern Oregon !!

        As of August 2016, La Nina is building at mock speed and it could be a duezy, cold Winter coming up for North America…

  2. Jamie

    It is amazing how warmists ignore powerful variables in their climate models, such as solar activity, the oceans, and geothermal. Even in terms of the greenhouse gas effect, warmists ignore methane levels, water vapor levels, cloud cover .. and just focus on their tiny little carbon molecules.

    Since their approach to predictive statistics is not scientific in the least, we must assume they are shrilling, consciously or unwittingly, for the trillion dollar Chicago carbon trading floor.

  3. Ulric Lyons

    “(AMO), which switched from a cold to warm phase in the mid 1990s, and then back towards a cool phase since 2010 ”

    No it has not, and it will not cool properly until from the mid 2030’s, it’s a 65-69 year envelope.
    The AMO anomalies tend to move in phase with solar cycles in its cold mode, and anti=phase with solar cycles in its warm mode, hence the slight AMO and Arctic cooling around this last sunspot maximum.
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/esrl-amo/from:1880/mean:13/plot/sidc-ssn/from:1880/normalise

  4. tom0mason

    And of course the 1960-70 freeze was preceded by the big freeze of the WWII years.
    Baltic frozen, Russia’s extended winter etc, etc…
    From http://russiasperiphery.blogs.wm.edu/baltic-states/general/baltic-sea/

    On average, around forty-five percent of the Baltic is covered by ice throughout the year, including the Gulfs of Bothnia, Finland, and Riga, as well as other sheltered bays, but on the whole, the majority of the Baltic remains ice-free. However, since 1720, the entire Baltic has frozen over 20 times (Baltic Sea). Freezing of ports and of major shipping routes makes travel without icebreakers difficult, and still leads to difficulties today.

    And before that during the 1914-1918 war. FEBRUARY 1916 Baltic Sea War at Sea – With the northern Baltic frozen, few naval operations were possible over the following two months. (http://www.worldwar1atsea.net/WW1AreaBaltic1914-19.htm)

    Nothing more than natural cycling of the AMO affecting wide swaths of N. Europe.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    As this region has been involve with much conflict over the ages, it may be instructive to see how the weather had affected this battleground.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    1. sod

      Hey and don t forget late autumn 1999 in a small village close to the border to austria. My feet were really cold that night!

      1. AndyG55

        And your brain has been frozen ever since.

        1. David Johnson

          Andy wins best comeback for this thread!

  5. Nord Atlantico in profondo raffreddamento e un debole sole potrebbero portare ad un "grande gelo" nel prossimo inverno 2016/17 ... Come quello del 1962/63! : Attività Solare ( Solar Activity )

    […] Ancora un altro fattore di boding per il prossimo inverno è la cosiddetta Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation (QBO) nella stratosfera sopra l’equatore. Leggi: Raffreddamento dei tropici di 5 gradi F in una settimana! (In stratosfera). […]

  6. yonason

    OCEAN WARMING COOLING

    Lots of info from the ever excellent “C3 Headlines”
    http://www.c3headlines.com/are-oceans-warming/

  7. Oliver K. Manuel

    An error in the Bethe-Weizsacker formula for nuclear “binding energy” obscured the powerful force of neutron repulsion, a force that Aston described in 1922 as “powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction.”

    http://ierj.in/journal/index.php/ierj/article/view/409

  8. Oliver K. Manuel

    An error in the Bethe-Weizsacker formula for nuclear “binding energy” obscured the powerful force of neutron repulsion, a force that Aston described in 1922 as “powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction.”

    http://ierj.in/journal/index.php/ierj/article/view/409