German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de writes here on the upcoming Europe fall/winter and the unfavorable solar situation. What follows are some excerpts.
In the first months of 2016, the North Atlantic has been significantly colder that the comparable El Niño year of 1998, and solar activity is the weakest in 200 years.
As a result could the winter of 2016/17 be one of the worst in a hundred years, like 1962/63 in Europe.
The following chart shows a clear cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the North Atlantic (35°N – 67°N, 55°W-0°) for the months of January to July 2016, compared to 1998.
The above chart shows the difference of the deviation from the mean sea surface temperature (SSTA) for the first seven months in both El Niño years 2016 and 1998. 2016 is far colder than 1998. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.
Currently the North Atlantic is also much colder than normal when compared to the WMO recommended 1981-2010 climate mean:
What effects does the sub-cooled North Atlantic have, for example, on a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and on Europe’s upcoming autumn and winter?
Instead, the fall of 2016 could be quite uncomfortable over large parts of Europe if it is like the fall of 1998…”
NOAA reanalyis of the 2m temperature deviation in Europe for the second half of the year of the powerful El Niño event such as 1983, 1998 and 2016. Fall 1998 temperatures over Germany and much of Europe were well below the international 1981-2010 climate mean used by the WMO. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.
Winter 1998/99 in Europe, however, was near normal:
NOAA reanalyis of the 2m temperature deviation in Europe for the second year of the powerful 1997/1998 El Nino, which is comparable to 2015/2016. Temperatures in winter 1998/99 in Germany and Central Europe were mostly near normal compared to the internationally accepted 1981-2010 climate mean recommended by the WMO. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.
North Atlantic is much cooler this year…
However the North Atlantic this year is much cooler than in 1998, and colder much deeper below the sea surface, as ARGO measurements show for a depth of 800 m:
The above chart shows the water temperature of the North Atlantic current down to a depth of 800m (extension of the Gulf Stream) at 59°N from 30°W to 0°. Since measurements began in 2004, the North Atlantic water has gotten much cooler at all depths. Original text on the plot: “Average temperature along 59 N, 30-0W, 0-800m depth, corresponding to the main part of the North Atlantic Current, using Argo data. Source: Global Marine Argo Atlas. Latest month shown: June 2016. Last diagram update: 7 August 2016.“ Source: www.climate4you.com/.
The reason for this are the multidecadal natural cycles of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which switched from a cold to warm phase in the mid 1990s, and then back towards a cool phase since 2010, as the following chart shows:
Screenshot of the AMO from 1948 to 2010. There’s been a clear cooling since 2010, which will last about 30 years. Source: stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/all/.
Conditions during the “Big Freeze” of 1962/63.
Let’s take a look at the winters that occurred during the start of the last cooling-off period of the AMO in the early 1960s.
At this time Europe experienced the “Big Freeze” of 1962/63, when temperatures from December 1962 to February 1963 were a whopping 8°C below the mean over Central Europe:
The Big Freeze of 1962/63 in Europe, which occurred at the start of the AMO cold phase. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov.pl.
Low solar activity, QBO bode ill
The wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de site writes that solar activity also may bode ill for the coming winter: In 1962 solar activity was also strongly falling off, as it is now. In 2016 the solar activity is even weaker. A number of scientific publications show that periods of low solar activity are associated with harsh European winters.
Yet another factor boding ill for the coming winter is the so-called Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere above the equator. Read: Tropics Cool by 5 deg. F in One Week! (In the Stratosphere).
Mostly written by “Schneefan”
Translated by Pierre