Early Europe Winter? …And Greenland Sees “Record” 12 Billion Tonnes Ice Growth In A Single Day!

Yesterday veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi brought to our attention an article by the Washington Post here, where it reports forecasters are warning that the coming winter “could get nasty” for the Washington D.C. area.

Although the National Weather Service predicts “equal chances of a cold or mild winter”, private meteorologists warn the winter could get bitter. There’s a real debate going on.

The Post cites meteorologist Judah Cohen, who uses the Arctic Oscillation as a predictor of winters, writing that greater-than-normal October Eurasian snow cover tends to lead to large blocking highs that steer cold air southwards into the middle latitude regions.

Early winter for Europe?

After a summerlike warm September in Central Europe, things have cooled down significantly, with Central European temperatures running below normal so far this October. German climate skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here writes that there are now signs of an early winter hitting Central Europe, with freezing temperatures and snow forecast for early November.

Current models show a major storm positioned over northeast Europe, which would send a large mass of cold air with temperatures at -35°C at the 5500m level (500 hPa) over large parts of Europe:

GFS-Prognose des Bodenluftdrucks und der Temperaturen in 500 hPa (ca. 5500 m) vom 20.10.2016 für den 1.11.2016. Zwischen einem kräftigen Sturmtief über Norddosteuropa und hohem Druck über dem Nordatlantik wird in breitem Strom hochreichende Polarluft nach Europa geführt. Quelle: wie vor

 Source: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

What follows is the forecast 2m temperature chart for November 1st:

temperature_11_2016

Today’s GFS model runs (below) also continue to show cold setting in early November:

temp-11_2016

Source: www.wetteronline.de=gfs.

This forecast is 10 – 15 days out, and so naturally there is a fair amount of uncertainty involved. But it tells Europeans that maybe it’s a good idea not to delay putting the winter tires on. Snow is hardly a thing of the past.

The cold temperatures would lead to precipitation likely falling as snow, even in the lowland regions:

GFS-Prognose der Niederschläge vom 20.10.2016 für den 1.11.2016. Vor allem in Süden und im Norden Deutsachlands werden Niderschlähe erwartet, die bei Tmin um oder unter 0°C bis ins Tiefland als Schnee fallen können. Quelle:

12 billion tonnes of ice in a single day!

One thing is certain: Greenland just got bombed by a “record” snowfall (hat-tip: wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung), thanks to what used to be hurricane Nicole. some 12 billion tonnes of “record ice growth in a single day” – see chart:

Die akkumulierte Massebilanz des Grönlandeisschildes zeigt am 19.10.2016 mit rund 8 Gigatonnen den höchsten Tageszuwachs seit Beginnn der Messungen (obere Grafik, blaue Linie . Die graue Fläche ist der Bereich einer Standardabweichung vom rechnerischen Tagesmittel (Mean/Durchschnitt – dunkelgraue Linie). Originaltext: “Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Quelle: http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out.” Source: http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

 

34 responses to “Early Europe Winter? …And Greenland Sees “Record” 12 Billion Tonnes Ice Growth In A Single Day!”

  1. tom0mason

    What happens to windmills in freezing rain?

    1. AndyG55
    2. AndyG55

      And of course they now have heaters that draw power from the grid and pump hot air through the blades.

      Fossil fuels to the rescue yet again.

    3. A.D. Everard

      And they need helicopters to spray their blades if they ice over (presumably if the internal heaters aren’t enough).

  2. Stephen Richards

    GFS is not a reliable forecast model. WMO is much better

  3. sod

    some cool days forecast in two weeks.

    That is the real proof, that global warming was a hoax and that an ice age is imminent. Please hold your breath!

    1. AndyG55

      Global warming by CO2 is the REAL HOAX.

      In the satellite era, the ONLY warming has come from EL Nino and ocean oscillation effects.

      There is ABSOLUTELY NO CO2 signal in the untampered temperature data.

      If you are really worried about CO2.. stop producing it.

      Turn off you computer.. fossil fuel made and powered.. I dare you.

      Turn off your fridge, no heaters, no car…

      … come on.. walk the walk.

      1. sod

        “Global warming by CO2 is the REAL HOAX.”

        no, it is not. you believe in a conspiracy theory. The scientists say so, they have a working theory and the facts support this theory in multiple ways.

        “In the satellite era, the ONLY warming has come from EL Nino and ocean oscillation effects.”

        that is total garbage. if i drop the la ninas that i do not like from the temperature record, we will see extremely strong warming.

        “There is ABSOLUTELY NO CO2 signal in the untampered temperature data.”

        wow, so many errors in a single sentence. the satellite data is “tampered”, it fails to include the arctic and it still does show the warming.

        “If you are really worried about CO2.. stop producing it.

        Turn off you computer.. fossil fuel made and powered.. I dare you.”

        i will, if your fossil fuels stop polluting my air and water. As things stand at this moment, 1/3 of electricity in germany is renewable, so your right to use electricity is not so far ahead of mine any longer.

        1. yonason

          Most “scientists,” at least those care about data and what it means, do NOT believe in the idiotic AGW hoax.
          https://judithcurry.com/2012/02/27/lindzens-seminar-at-the-house-of-commons/
          “The arguments on which the catastrophic claims are made are extremely weak – and commonly acknowledged as such. They are sometimes [or in sod’s case always] overtly dishonest.”

          Only activists claim to believe in that junk.

          (btw, Curry and Lindzen are real scientists, not bureaucratic hacks like the writers of the IPPC report.)

        2. AndyG55

          You are WRONG or intentionally LYING on every point, sop.

          The only warming in the satellite record comes form El Nino steps.. you are TOTALLY WRONG if you “believe” otherwise.

          1. No warming in the UAH satellite record from 1980 to 1998 El Nino

          2. No warming between the end of that El Nino in 2001 and the start of the current El Nino at the beginning of 2015.

          3. No warming in the southern polar region for the whole 38 years of the satellite record.

          4. No warming in the southern ex-tropicals for 20 years.

          5. No warming in Australia for 20 years, cooling since 2002

          6. No warming in Japan surface data for the last 20 years, No warming from 1950-1990.. ie, a zero trend for 40 years through their biggest industrial expansion

          7. No warming in the USA since 2005 when a non-corrupted system was installed, until the beginning of the current El Nino.

          8. UAH Global Land shows no warming from 1979-1997, then no warming from 2001 – 2015

          9. Iceland essentially the same temperature as in the late 1930s as now, maybe slightly lower

          10. British Columbia (Canada) temperatures have been stable, with no warming trend, throughout 1900-2010

          11. Chile has been cooling since the 1940s.

          12. Southern Sea temperatures not warming from 1982-2005, then cooling

          13. Even UAH NoPol shows no warming this century until the large spike in January 2016.

          That is DESPITE a large climb in CO2 levels over those regions and time periods.

          There IS NO CO2 WARMING effect.

          The ONLY warming has come from regional El Nino and ocean circulation effects such as the PDO and AMO.

          GET OVER IT, sop !!

        3. AndyG55

          You are an inveterate LIAR, sop.

          The satellite data is NOT TAMPERED

          Even the Arctic shows NO WARMING apart form the normal AMO cycles. Here is UAH NoPol between the last El Nino and the spike of the current EL Nino.

          https://s19.postimg.org/jrz6i34oj/UAH_No_Pol_2000_2016.png

          And before the l1998 El Nino it was actually COOLING

          https://s19.postimg.org/t5vk23e5v/UAH_nopol_1980_1995.png

          Every little bit of PROPAGANDA you have been fed is WRONG… but you lap it up like a gullible brainless sponge.

          1. AndyG55

            typo.. inveterate -> invertebrate…

        4. AndyG55

          Turn off everything when the sun does shine and the wind doesn’t blow.

          Prove that you are NOT TOTALLY RELIANT on fossil fuels to fill in the HUGE missing gaps left by the UNRELIABLES.

        5. AndyG55

          And here are several untampered Arctic temperature series..

          https://s19.postimg.org/vws4z68s3/arctic_temp.png

          So, enough of your LIES about Arctic warming.

        6. AndyG55

          “your fossil fuels stop polluting my air and water”

          Fossil fuel in well designed power stations produce very little pollution.

          Certainly very little compared to the horrendous VISUAL POLLUTION of wind turdines.

          The output of a modern coal or gas fired power station is TOTALLY BENEFICIAL CO2 and some water vapour.

          You know, the two things that are absolutely essential for ALL LIFE ON EARTH.

        7. AndyG55

          ” it fails to include the arctic ”

          The surface data fails to include around 40% of the land. And what it does include is of highly questionable standard, marred by unknown amounts of urban and airport heat effects then adjusted , and adjusted to fabricate basically any temperature they want to create.. It is basically a JOKE.

          See all that grey? NO DATA !!!

          http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/201609.gif

        8. Ed Caryl

          I think Andy covered most of the rebuttals I had, but here is one more: ” if i drop the la ninas that i do not like from the temperature record, we will see extremely strong warming.”
          If I drop the El Ninos that I do not like from the temperature record, we will see cooling.

          The current warming is just a small blip in the earths temperature in the last 10,000 years. Over all, we are slowly slipping into the next ice age. If additional CO2 prevents that, it’s a good thing.

    2. John F. Hultquist

      sod,
      Please don’t comment on climate change when a story about weather is up. Why not say something useful?

      For instance, above Stephen R. says “GFS is not a reliable forecast model. WMO is much better”
      Can you add to this? Such would be a useful comment.
      What you did provide is a useless rant.

    3. M E

      Many a true word spoken in jest 🙂

  4. Mark M

    The 97% Climate Scientist Lament
    As I was measuring warming air,
    I measured snow that wasn’t there.
    It wasn’t there again today,
    I wish, I wish it would go away.
    (h/t to iowahawk)

  5. gnome

    Meanwhile, southern Australia shivers through a record cold October. The way it’s looking now, it will be well into December before they’ll be able to declare this October was the warmest one on record. Memories are short, but this one is becoming memorable.

  6. yonason

    Actually, the “civilized” world has far more serious problems than warming or cooling.
    http://www.weaselzippers.us/302856-unbelievable-austrian-supreme-court-throws-out-refugee-child-sex-charge-he-didnt-know-the-boy-didnt-want-to-be-raped/

    Of course, it’s the same destructive mentality that results in perversions of law and science. The real crisis is the lack of moral compass, and that it appears to be a rapidly spreading phenomena.

    Leftist politicians are among the worst.
    http://www.weaselzippers.us/302868-leaked-email-john-podesta-compliments-paul-begala-on-how-well-he-lied-on-the-today-show/
    And the mega-corrupt MSM is close behind.
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/wikileaks-15-another-dinner-reporters-hillarys-campaign-chairmans-house/

  7. Lasse

    Thermostat is functioning.
    Hurricanes lift water from +30 degrees sea and unload it as snow at colder places.

  8. AndyG55
  9. tom0mason

    Lock up the children lest they find out what snow is.
    It is important for the UN, and its future, and therefore to you that children do not see, or worse still actually experience snow.
    How could you ever explain why we have all allowed such huge debts to be run-up in their name when they play in the snow? We have impoverished their future because we need to fix the weather. To stop it getting warmer.
    So bite the bullet and borrow some money for a nice holiday in a warmer country.

    For all of you with no children, well done the UN loves you, take a holiday.

    /sarcoff

  10. Robert Folkerts

    sod says
    “so your right to use electricity is not so far ahead of mine any longer.”

    I find sod’s notion of “right” to use electricity intriguing.

    Interesting to see sod thinks his “right” to consume is a bit less than normal people.

    Perhaps he has a filter on his electric supply line which only allows wind mill produced electricity in to power his life! I guess he must have, because he wouldn’t want to pollute his utopia with electricity produced by evil means, would he.

  11. Svend Ferdinandsen

    It is very simple. The melting is caused by climate change, and so is the gain in ice. If it gets cold in Europe it is climate change, because it certainly gets warm some other places.
    There was a lot of talking of our very hot september here in Denmark.
    Now oktober seems to be colder than the 61 to 90 average, but that is not a sign of anything, that is weather.
    I wonder when cold will be a sign, like it was in the 70.

  12. litesong

    Greenland can gain 200 billion + tons of snow per year. After all the melts through moulins & glacier outlets to seas & oceans are subtracted, Grace satellites & I(input)O(utput)M(ethod)s determine Greenland loses hundreds of billions of tons of snow & ice per year…. & increasing. Before the 12 billion ton day, Grace & IOM determined Greenland may have lost 400+ cubic kilometers of ice for 2016.

    1. AndyG55

      GRACE was proven very wrong about Antarctica.
      And with the active magma pockets under Iceland and Greenland, there is nothing saying they are correct about Greenland either.

      Input last year was MORE than they say is normal output.

      Its current mas gain is well above average..

      https://s19.postimg.org/beyi2ybcj/greenland_1.png

  13. Sunsettommy

    AndyG55 writes,

    “In the satellite era, the ONLY warming has come from EL Nino and ocean oscillation effects.”

    Sod replies,

    “that is total garbage. if i drop the la ninas that i do not like from the temperature record, we will see extremely strong warming.”

    =========================================

    Sod,made a typically misleading statement because La-Nina is simply absence of El-Nino.since most of the ocean waters are only a few degrees above freezing. El-Nino is a representation of a PHYSICAL change in winds and Solar/Cloud concentration,La-Nina is the absence of it.

    It is just the top few hundred meters, that the vast majority of the “heat” is located and released via the wind system, from the West to East.

    If Sod put on his reading glasses, he would see that warming of the atmosphere comes from the ocean water.ONLY during an El-Nino phase.

    1. sod

      Roy Spencer actually made comments about 2016 missing hottest year records back after August.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH-v6-LT-with-2016-projection-3.jpg

      but La Nina did not show up and temperature went up instead of down.

      http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_September_2016_v6.gif

      1. Sunsettommy

        We are already in weak La-Nina mode,therefore a decrease in “heat” leaving the ocean in the months ahead. The atmosphere will eventually cool down some.

  14. sod

    “Sod,made a typically misleading statement because La-Nina is simply absence of El-Nino.”

    no.

    http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

    1. Sunsettommy

      Ha ha,

      you don’t understand what I meant,which is not surprising.

      La-Nina is indeed the absence of El-Nino,which is what drive temperature changes in the atmosphere.La-Nina doesn’t since it is merely a big reduction of energy leaving the ocean,which is still happening all the time.

      Please don’t continue to embarrass yourself here.