Chart of the Day

Looks like the election models and forecasts are about as bad as those we’ve seen in climate “science”.

nyt-chances

Source: New York Times

Think about this.

Of course when you place your full faith in them, eventually you get brutally slammed by reality.

Make no mistake, I’m also stunned by Trump’s victory, as yesterday I thought he was a longshot. Yet, the huge crowds he drew at his rallies, clashed with what the polls were saying…like how all that snow we have today isn’t supposed to be there.

I see even sod, in his latest comment, is unable to find an argument to dispute this reality, and so had to seek refuge and consolation in his bed. So it shall be for tens of millions of practicing deniers today.

 

55 responses to “Chart of the Day”

  1. The Indomitable Snowman, Ph.D.

    Hail Donald! The witch is DEAD!

    🙂

  2. Hein

    However, the experts on polling are willing to learn from bad forecasts and try to make better ones:
    http://andrewgelman.com/2016/11/08/election-forecasting-updating-error-ignored-correlations-data-thus-producing-illusory-precision-inferences/

  3. tom0mason

    BBC just got a comment from Simon Shama (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Schama) their often use TV historian, and he just compared a Trump win to the fascist take-over of mainstream politics in Europe during the last century. He (Shama) said that ultra right of US Nationalist and the KKK are rejoicing over a Trump win.
    Outrageous!

    1. yonason

      The BBC used to be the most professional and most accurate news service in the world. Now they are a mere parody of their old Monty Python show.

      Might as well get your history from Giorgio A. Tsoukalos on The History Channel, than the BBC’s “expert.”

      KKK were Democrats.
      Fascists are Left, not Right.

      Any “professor” who doesn’t know that is an ignoramus.

  4. tom0mason

    Just announced Trump has won. Clinton has conceded!

    Donald J. Trump the 43rd President.

    1. tom0mason

      Ooops 45th President

      1. Joe

        I might like refer to the P.-elect is 44th v2, and forget v1.

  5. dennisambler

    There should be lots of “You’re fired” once he takes over. I wonder what mischief Obama will try and wreak in his last couple of months. First on the list, pardon for Hillary, to be redeemed as and when required.

    1. sam

      No pardon, Trump has worked the art of the deal on that one. Obama walks, he really did not do anything wrong with the e-mails she did. No pardon and she goes down Hard.

      1. John F. Hultquist

        “… she goes down Hard.”

        I expect the Clinton Crime Syndicate to dissolve like a statue of salt in a downpour. The e-mails that we have seen show nasty people doing nasty things; things they should not have been doing and thinking no one would know. There is nothing (now) holding them together. They worked for her presidency and that is now gone.
        We use the term Centrifugal force for “center fleeing” and such will be apparent in the coming weeks.
        The Trump administration has more important things to do than flog this dead horse. Let’s move on.

  6. yonason

    “I wonder what mischief Obama will try and wreak in his last couple of months.” – dennisambler

    That’s something I am also worried about. Obama is arrogant, small minded, petty, immature, vindictive, malicious and clever. I don’t doubt that he will try to stir up trouble. And he has 70 days to do it.

    I imagine that I share the sentiment of many others that it’ll be good to finally see the back of him.

    1. sod

      “That’s something I am also worried about. Obama is arrogant, small minded, petty, immature, vindictive, malicious and clever. I don’t doubt that he will try to stir up trouble. And he has 70 days to do it.”

      funny how wrong you are.

      The truth is simple: Obama was a moderate. And he is behaving fairly now.

      That is the opposite of what Trump is and does.

      The democratic party will utterly< fail, if the continue to roll over like Obama clinton and other leaders have promised to do.

      They must rip a page out of the Trump scriptbook and fight him with every tool available.

      1. AndyG55

        “with every tool available.”

        Well they are a bunch of tools… that is for sure. !

        1. yonason

          He’s such an empty headed idiot. He hasn’t a clue how bad Obama is.
          http://www.thepiratescove.us/2014/07/29/red-state-obama-is-malicious-not-incompetent/

          http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2013/06/obamas_loss_of_trust_and_credibility.html

          http://counterjihad.com/obama-gave-iran-money-belonged-irans-terror-victims/

          It’s idiots like him that brought Germany to the awful state it found itself in early last century.

      2. AndyG55

        Poor sop.. this is really hurting you.

        I hope you mommy has removed all sharp objects from your play room !

      3. yonason

        @sod

        “…[Obama] is behaving fairly now.

        That is the opposite of what Trump is and does.”

        And yet you cannot give examples of said “fairness” or what Trump does that is opposite of it, can you. All you can do is make false and substanceless allegations.

        Obama is dreck.
        http://www.standard.net/Letters/2015/05/01/The-shameless-arrogance-of-Obama
        http://ijr.com/2014/01/104778-obama-presidencys-100-arrogant-moments-2013/

      4. yonason

        Yes, sod, Obama does the opposite. Case in point.
        http://www.weaselzippers.us/306808-president-elect-trump-calls-widow-of-slain-nyc-officer/

        Instead Obama encouraged the rioting that has led to so many Police deaths.
        http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/11/obama-meets-with-ferguson-activists-says-hes-concerned-they-stay-on-course/

        Obama’s bitterness and hatred have led to rioting, destruction and death. You are right,sod. They couldn’t be more different.

  7. Scott Scarborough

    Election models are not that bad! If they were as bad as climate models that would have predicted Jill Stein winning by 70 points!

  8. Dave

    Check out a new book at Amazon.

    Honest Reality : Environmentalism is an anti-science cult.

  9. gallopingcamel

    You have to love “sod”. He reminds me of the ACLU………..on the wrong side of every issue.

    1. yonason

      The Golden Plover also has a brain the size of a pea, yet unerringly instinctively flies from Alaska to Hawaii. So, we may conclude from this that, despite the size of his/her/it/whatever’s brain, his instinct to get EVERYTHING wrong is indeed a marvel of nature.

  10. DirkH

    “Make no mistake, I’m also stunned by Trump’s victory, as yesterday I thought he was a longshot. ”

    Hey come on. We all expected the Left to cheat harder. The pollsters expected it as well so they overrepresented Dem voters.

    Wonder what went wrong. Bus breakdowns?

    1. sod

      “Hey come on. We all expected the Left to cheat harder. The pollsters expected it as well so they overrepresented Dem voters. ”

      the “voting fraud meme” is a fraud. Why are you spreading such obvious false informations?

      There is real fraud at the polls. The republican gerrymandering for the house seats, voting laws that attempt to keep black people from voting and a FBI boss who starts an investigation without any clue 10 days before the election.

      1. yonason

        “the “voting fraud meme” is a fraud.” – sod

        Not by a long shot
        http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/181415/democratic-officials-and-activists-linked-acorn-daniel-greenfield

        http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124182750646102435

        “One of the biggest frauds being perpetrated is the argument of Democrats that voter fraud is not a problem.” – Dan Greenfield
        http://prairiepundit.blogspot.com/2016/10/vote-fraud-is-too-prevalent-to-be-denied.html

        ETC.,
        ETC.,
        ETC.

        “Why are you spreading such obvious false informations?” – sod

        Why are you ALWAYS wrong, about EVERYTHING?

    2. Joe

      Trump operatives held daytime bingo at the senior centers

  11. sod

    Well, people made their choice and will have to face the consequences of this insane decision.

    But the graph explains mostly, why people here do n ot understand anything.

    At the moment, it looks like Hillary might have carried the popular vote, which basically shows us that the polls were not that bad and definitely inside error margins.

    Just add Comey who made a huge difference over the last 10 days with little real polling in the swing sates and you got the tiny difference explained as well.

    That is how science works, by the way.

    1. David Johnson

      You really are a moron. She carried the popular vote by an infinitesimal margin but that is irrelevant and is still a huge error. Comey had no option but to make it known, imagine the stink if he had sat on the report until after the election and Clinton had won?? He then exonerated Clinton saying there was nothing in the emails.

      1. sod

        ” Comey had no option but to make it known, imagine the stink if he had sat on the report until after the election and Clinton had won??”

        what are you talking about? he stole the 10 most important days of the election cycle with NOTHING!!!!”

        1. yonason

          With the new evidence, he HAD to reopen the investigation. He was then obligated to inform Congress that he had done so. He had no choice in the matter.

          Clinton has been stealing from people for years, just ask the Haitians. But you are upset that she may finally be held accountable for that, and hopefully the rest of her lifetime of criminal activity? See here for more on the Clinton Foundation.
          http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2016/11/bummer-for-hillary-full-speed-ahead-for.html

          The only “nothing” here is in the space between your ears.

    2. yonason

      Some of those who gave Hillary a tiny popular vote margin.
      http://downtrend.com/katrina/3-million-illegal-aliens-under-investigation-after-obama-told-them-to-vote

      And that’s just a tiny part of the vote fraud that Democrats rely on to steal elections.

  12. sod

    The paragraph of the day must be this list of incompet people who will end in high positions:

    “Among the candidates for cabinet secretaries and advisers are members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle, aides said, including Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, a crucial adviser on policy issues; Steven Mnuchin, a businessman who was Mr. Trump’s national finance chairman; Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York; Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey; and Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/us/politics/donald-trump-election-reaction.html

    There are crazy times ahead. fasten your seat belt and mind the huge gap, if you are part of a minority…

    1. David Johnson

      Incompetent? Some are successful businessmen with the skills to manage large organisations and others are proven successful politicians. Oh you mean incompetent in the liberal sense, i.e. they don’t share your own awful viewpoint

    2. Analitik
      1. sod

        “Don’t worry sod. Trump has picked an expert to head the EPA”

        he has picked an oil shill and a denialist.

        The EPA and the people will fight back against antiscience.

        1. AndyG55

          “The EPA and the people will fight back against antiscience.”

          The people have already started to fight back against anti-science. It was called an election.

          Oh and..

          “Vestas shares tumble after Trump election raises fears for US green energy”

          https://www.ft.com/content/9f53249c-ec00-331a-80c1-fb4e2510ec43

          I see only GOOD happening !

        2. yonason

          “…he has picked an oil shill and a denialist.”

          Oil is good.

          Denial of falsehood is good.

          Obstruction of criminal activity is good.

          I don’t see a problem here.

        3. DirkH

          “The EPA and the people will fight back against antiscience.”

          Well if that were so EPA wouldn’t take computer games by warmunists serious.

          Trump has advice for them: “You’re Fired!”

          No more pooping in the hallways or pretending to be a CIA agent on vacations in SE Asia.

          I so hope for a culling of all the useless eaters. And after that, the same in Germany. Imagine what MOUNTAINS of money we will save!

    3. AndyG55

      “of incompet people ”

      Only one “incompet” person here, and its you, sop !!

      Every time !

    4. AndyG55

      “fasten your seat belt and mind the huge gap, if you are part of a minority…”

      Poor sop, there is no doubt you are in a minority.
      Very few people have single digit IQ’s..

      and yes, there is a massive chasm between you and reality.

  13. roger

    RIP AGW

    1. sod

      Elections can not destroy facts.

      1. AndyG55

        But it will most definitely destroy the non-fact that is the AGW SCAM. !!

      2. DirkH

        “Elections can not destroy facts.”

        True. Like the snow I had in Munich this week.
        OTOH, elections sure can expose lies- like the fraudulent computer games of the warmunist mafia.

      3. AndyG55

        48 hour Dow … of look , it recovered VERY quickly to and ended up higher. !

        Get over it, sop, you yet again have NOTHING !!

        https://s12.postimg.org/fmhp86d9p/48hr_DOW.png

  14. kennethrichards

    Pierre, is your inbox full? Have been trying to contact you…

  15. Bill Davis

    So many wonderful comments, so little time. As for the Hillary “won the popular vote” meme as of this morning she leads by 202,000 votes…she received 1.6 million from L.A. County alone, which means she’s not so “popular” with the rest of the nation after all. As to the NYTimes graph, which only changed on election night, it seems that somebody removed the Kool-Aide drip from the Times staff on election night and after the head slap and a few OMG’s, they decided to get right with history and avoid a “Dewey Wins” moment. Finally, with regard to the PPP (piss poor pollsters) you have to know they were hoist on their own petard of searching for “likely voters” (people who voted in the last two elections is the common identifier) and Trump’s voters didn’t make the cut. The Trump voters were people who knew they would get no help from Romney, McCain or Obama so why bother voting. When Trump sent the clarion call about controlling illegal immigration, it was heard by these Reagan Democrats, out-of-work blue collar guys and the really hard core anti-government folks.

  16. sod
    1. DirkH

      You mean this one is no good anymore?
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals

      I didn’t actually grasp what the gibberish you linked to has to do with anything.
      Listen boy. You lot are in for a LOOOOONG spanking.
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/deplorable-speaks-out-sorry-snowflake-its-not-over

    2. AndyG55

      sop and his idles, waxing gibberish, yet again.

  17. DirkH

    Video of the day. Reaction of warmunists on Trump election. Trigger warning: Deeply disturbing.
    https://youtu.be/NNi1hKi9Z5c

    Kek Has Risen!

    1. sod

      “Video of the day. Reaction of warmunists on Trump election. Trigger warning: Deeply disturbing.”

      I would never post such a video. It is all the difference between you bitter folks and me.

  18. sod

    “I see even sod, in his latest comment, is unable to find an argument to dispute this reality, and so had to seek refuge and consolation in his bed. So it shall be for tens of millions of practicing deniers today.”

    I am not sure what you mean with this.

    But i told you above, why your interpretation of the graph is totally wrong.

    The win chance numbers are based on polls. The poll numbers are mostly based on national polls. State polls are factored in, but there are not enough of those and never at the same time (the models “decay” the result of such polls over time). And in this case we could not do any real polling after Comey stepped in to change the race completely.

    being 2 or 3% wrong is within the error margin of these polls and it looks like Hilary even won the popular vote, so the polls were not that wrong.

    But 1 or 2% make a huge difference in win chances (in this case it made all the difference between Hillary winning or Trump).

    so to show that the models were wrong, Trump should have won in a landslide, and even then the very special nature of this race would not have made people throw away the models (they work pretty fine in most elections).

    So what are you doing? Basically the same that you do when talking about Climate: you take a single random weather event and claim that it destroys the models. In the real world, it does not.

  19. sod

    To understand Trump, just look at his Lobbyist transition team. Clinton would have none.

    http://www.businessinsider.de/trump-transition-team-washington-insiders-2016-11?r=US&IR=T

  20. sod
    1. yonason

      Reid is a crook
      http://www.trbas.com/media/media/acrobat/2003-06/8306315.pdf

      and a liar.
      http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2012/08/politifact-gives-harry-reid-pants-on-fire-rating-for-his-lies-about-romneys-taxes-2452218.html

      This short audio will put the lie to the bilge sod is spewing about who won. It’s perfectly clear, to anyone with a modicum of intelligence and common sense (which is why sod won’t get it).
      http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/?powerpress_pinw=204854-podcast2