Breaking: In New Study Leading Warmist Scientists Determine Sun Plays Major Role – Warming Delayed by Decades!

Climate scientists at Switzerland’s renowned ETH Zurich and the University of Bern have long warned of the risks of man-made global warming.

But in a brand new study their results now appear to have compelled them to postpone the expected global warming – by a few decades!

They now claim that a weaker sun (now expected over the coming decades) could reduce temperatures by half a degree Celsius.

Moreover the scientists clearly concede that the earth’s climate system is nowhere near as well understood as some scientists would like to have us believe and that the sun indeed plays a major role after all – enough so to override and postpone the effects of the often hyped greenhouse gases.

This will be hugely disappointing news for the catastrophe-hopers and cheerleaders, who hold front row tickets to the announced climate catastrophe, which according to some should be happening already.

The Swiss scientists say that sun’s impact on climate change has now been quantified “for first time” (see postscript below).

The Swiss scientists say that their model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. The Swiss National Science Foundation-funded studies now expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

The sun a factor after all

There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations, the scientists acknowledge, and say one important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches the earth’s surface. Previously IPCC reports assumed that recent solar activity was insignificant for climate change, and that the same would apply to activity in the near future.

“Significant effect”

However, researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations now provide a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years and a significant effect is apparent.

They expect the Earth’s temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.

Project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, says this reduction in temperature is significant and believes it could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little.

Strong fluctuations could explain past climate

At the end of March, the researchers working on the project will meet in Davos for a conference to discuss the final results. The project brought together various research institutions’ capabilities in terms of climate effect modelling. PMOD calculated what is known as “radiative forcing” taking account of particle as well as electromagnetic radiation, ETH Zurich worked out its further effects in the Earth’s atmosphere and the University of Bern investigated the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans.

Revamped the models

The Swiss researchers revamped the commonly used models, which were criticized for overstating CO2’s impact, and assumed a greater fluctuation in the radiation striking the Earth than previous models had done. According to their press release, Schmutz is convinced “this is the only way that we can understand the natural fluctuations in our climate over the last few millennia.” He says that other hypotheses, such as the effect of major volcanic eruptions, are less conclusive.

Huge uncertainty: Sun’s future behavior unknown

Exactly how the sun will behave over the next few years remains a matter of speculation, however, since appropriate data series have only been available for a few decades and they reveal no evidence of fluctuations during this time. “To that extent, our latest results are still a hypothesis,” says Schmutz, “and it remains difficult for solar physicists to predict the next cycle.”

Warnings of a little ice age?

But since we have been observing a consistently strong phase since 1950, it is highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50 to 100 years’ time. It could be every bit as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold weather during the 17th century.

The research project also placed great importance on the historical perspective. The Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern compared data series on past solar activity with other specific climatic conditions. People have been recording the number of sunspots, which correlates well with solar activity levels, for some three centuries now.

However, it is much more difficult to quantify exactly how cold it was on Earth back then. “We know that the winters during the last minimum were very cold, at least in northern Europe,” says Schmutz.

Science in its infancy

The researchers still have a fair amount of work to do before they have a detailed understanding of the relationship between solar activity and the global climate both in the past and in the future.

PS:
It needs to be noted that other scientists have already quantified the sun’s impact to a lesser or similar extent, but were ignored. The latest Swiss studies merely confirm what dozens of other skeptic scientists have been saying over the past 10 years. Claims of being “the first” are a bit fake.

76 responses to “Breaking: In New Study Leading Warmist Scientists Determine Sun Plays Major Role – Warming Delayed by Decades!”

  1. CO2isLife

    The real threat is and always has been the return of an ice age. There is almost a 100% certainty of an ice age returning, during which humanity will likely suffer greatly. CAGW is purely speculative and contradicts all of human history, given that societies grew and thrived as the earth warmed.
    Climate Change Caused the Pre-Industrial Bronze Age Collapse
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/03/29/climate-changed-caused-the-pre-industrial-bronze-age-collapse/

  2. TinyCO2

    I’ve often wondered if we’ve seen the extremes of what the Sun can do over 100,000 years. Does the final trigger for a real ice age come from the sun?

  3. sod

    Breaking news: there might be another “pause” in 50 or 100 years:

    “But since we have been observing a consistently strong phase since 1950, it is highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50 to 100 years’ time. It could be every bit as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold weather during the 17th century. “

    1. garyh845

      That stronger sun just might have given us that extra 0.5 C . . which it is now set to take back. Yin-yang.

  4. Breaking: New Swiss Study Postpones Warming By Decades | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
  5. Dr Tim Ball-Climatologist

    I would like to tell you of my latest book and documentary.
    ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.
    My latest documentary and video of my presentation.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
    My website is
    Thank you.
    Tim
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
    http://www.drtimball.com

  6. sod

    Trump is trying to entrench “sceptic” positions by cutting science down. Great plan!

    “Because of the sweeping cuts to scientific programs, the administrator’s own Science Advisory Board budget would be cut 84 percent. As the document explains, it would not need much money due to “an anticipated lower number of peer reviews.””

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/31/new-epa-documents-reveal-even-deeper-proposed-cuts-to-staff-and-programs/?utm_term=.778a1144ff32

    1. Sunsettommy

      Why are you complaining, Sod?

      You warmists for years and years say, “the science is settled” or, that there is an “overwhelming consensus for climate change” or, that we have reached a “tipping point” to run away warming.

      Since warmists have long claimed the science is settled, why continue the pork barrel funding for climate science research, you say is already settled,backed by overwhelming consensus,that has long ago reached a tipping point?

      Better to put the funds to better use in other places, such as psychiatry hospitals for those poor warmists, who are increasingly found on the floor in fetal positions, at the sight of verifiable science research being spotted.

      Don’t worry skeptics will carry on running the world of science research undisturbed.

  7. CO2isLife

    This is an interesting play of the field of climate “Science”
    Scientists Not Served Here; Real Scientists Need Not Apply
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/scientists-not-served-here-real-scientists-need-not-apply/

  8. Jimmy Walter

    Little Ice age in 2030 – 97% correct model going back thousands of years:
    The Alarmists models don’t work going back, at all!

    https://phys.org/news/2015-07-irregular-heartbeat-sun-driven-dynamo.html

    1. SebastianH

      Of course they work backwards. That’s an often used argument against them, that they would only work backwards and not forwards …

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