Analysis Confirms Global-Warming-Defying Protracted Northern Hemisphere Winter!

Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather here presents an analysis of the just now ending winter of 2017. It’s nothing you’d expect from a world that is supposedly warming.
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As the following Environment Canada chart shows, snow is running at well above normal levels across the Northern Hemisphere”
Snow is running at well above normal levels across the Northern Hemisphere; courtesy Environment Canada

Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow.

Now much of the US is experiencing an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May.

Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we head towards the middle of May.

Arctic now cooler than normal

In addition, temperatures in the Arctic region – which have been generally running at above-normal levels in recent weeks – have actually dropped to below-normal in recent days and, if this trend continues, it should prevent any chance for sea ice extent to reach record lows up there this summer.

Temperatures in the Arctic region (>80 degrees N) have fallen to below-normal levels (circled area) in recent days following several weeks at generally above-normal levels; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics/Dr. Ryan Maue

Temperatures in the Arctic region (>80 degrees N) have fallen to below-normal levels (circled area) in recent days following several weeks at generally above-normal levels; map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics/Dr. Ryan Maue

One of the main factors contributing to this late season cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere is a blocking pattern in the upper part of the atmosphere centered over Greenland and Iceland and this tends to contribute to cold air outbreaks into the land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

500 millibar height anomaly pattern with strong blocking (in red) over Greenland and Iceland and deep upper-level lows over the Northeast and Southwest US; map courtesy AER/Dr. Judah Cohen

500 millibar height anomaly pattern with strong blocking (in red) over Greenland and Iceland and deep upper-level lows over the Northeast and Southwest US; map courtesy AER/Dr. Judah Cohen

The upper-level pattern across the Northern Hemisphere is playing a big role in this late season cold. Indeed, blocking is now well established over Greenland/Iceland as indicated by the latest 500 millibar height anomalies (red region) and this type of pattern can force cold air southward from northern latitudes into land mass areas on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

Arctic Oscillation (top) and North Atlantic Oscillation (bottom) index values for the current time and past few months (in black) and forecasted values are shown in red through the month of May; data courtesy NOAA

Arctic Oscillation (top) and North Atlantic Oscillation (bottom) index values for the current time and past few months (in black) and forecasted values are shown in red through the month of May; data courtesy NOAA

Two indices that meteorologists can track in order to monitor the pressure patterns over the northern latitudes are the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  When these indices drop into negative territory for extended periods this time of year, the result is often an upper-level blocking pattern across the northern latitudes.

There is some hope that later this month this blocking pattern will fall apart and the computer model forecasts of the AO and NAO indices (shown in red) do suggest a return to positive territory in the near future.

Text by Meteorologist Paul Dorian, with some editing by NTZ.
vencoreweather.com

 

28 responses to “Analysis Confirms Global-Warming-Defying Protracted Northern Hemisphere Winter!”

  1. Stephen Richards

    That blocking has been in place for most of this winter. Hence the mild winter in NW europe

    1. AndyG55

      The “less cold” weather blob trapped over the Franz Josef region slowed Arctic sea ice growth for most of the early freeze season.. we heard heaps about low ice etc etc..

      But it had a deadly flip side which most people heard very little about.. not AGW news-worthy. The NE of Russia had a large “more cold” blob stuck over it. People actually died because of it.

      https://www.rt.com/news/russia-freeze-cold-temperature-379/

  2. tom0mason

    Weather effects from SOLAR events like these —
    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/276/20170421-coronal-hole-faces-earth

    Nothing to do with some rare atmospheric gas.

  3. Craig T

    A single long winter in the Arctic by itself would not disprove global warming any more than a warm winter means it’s true. There is no expectation that every winter must be warmer than average.The JRSS 2 meter graph shows this winter has been warmer than average a lot more than colder. Your post does a good job of explaining the weather behind the cold snap.

    1. AndyG55

      See my post in reply to Stephen.

    2. DirkH

      ” There is no expectation that every winter must be warmer than average.”

      Of course there is. CO2 explodes a thousand Hiroshima bombs every second in the atmosphere. That’s gotta go SOMEWHERE.

      1. DirkH

        And if it can just leave to space every now and then, well, then there can not be an inevitable warming.

      2. Craig T

        Not sure if you’re trolling or serious.

        Eventually it does go into space otherwise we would boil. Before that, some goes into the atmosphere and some into the ocean. In a la Nina year more of that energy is taken into the deep. El Ninos keeps more of the energy in the top layer of ocean so that more goes into the atmosphere.

        1. AndyG55

          Changes in atmospheric CO2 have ZERO effect on ocean warming.

          We are still all waiting for a paper that proves empirically that CO2 causes ocean warming, or CO2 causes warming in a convectively controlled atmosphere.

  4. CO2isLife

    CO2 Can’t Cause the Warming Alarmists Claim it Does

    In conclusion, if you break the data down to isolate the impact of CO2 on atmospheric temperatures, there simply isn’t a strong case to be made that CO2 is the cause of the warming. Yes the oceans are warming, yes temperatures have been warming, but that doesn’t mean CO2 is the cause of that warming. If you isolate the impact of CO2 by removing the impact of the oceans, the urban heat island effect, and atmospheric water vapor, the result is that those areas show no warming what so ever. CO2 increased from 335 ppm to 405 ppm in Antarctica, and it had no impact at all, none, nada, zip.

    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/05/10/co2-cant-cause-the-warming-alarmists-claim-it-does/

  5. DirkH

    “Snowfall has been running at above normal levels this winter across the Northern Hemisphere and continues at those higher-than-normal levels as we head towards the middle of May.”

    Any time something deviates from the long term average this means that nature’s systems are out of whack because of human emissions.
    You have 100 years to leave the planet.
    I’ll take care of the steaks.

  6. John F. Hultquist

    There are several problems with trying to figure out what goes on with respect to measurement of Earth’s various temperatures.
    For example, note the following from Nature Mag. In 2005:

    Our planet’s air has cleared up in the past decade or two, allowing more sunshine to reach the ground, say two studies in Science this week.
    http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050502/full/news050502-8.html

    If more sunshine (energy) reaches the ground one might expect there will be an increase in temperature.

    Next is the urban heat island effect. Seems this is fairly well understood – although not (apparently) well adjusted for.

    Too much effort and money has been spent pushing the CO2 and global warming (United Nations way of supporting redistribution of wealth and one world government) scam.
    Not enough effort has gone to broad science issues.

    The weather effects of things such as cellular blocking patterns, the topic of this post (the Greenland Block) and more generally the Omega Block are presented by alarmists as though they did not exist prior to when the freighter SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank.

  7. tom0mason

    Hummm, El Nino have been shown to be correlated with solar events, and high sun-spot number correlate with hot summers. Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and wobbles in the jet-stream are aligned to solar wind variability …
    However those are only seen as weather effects. But a bunch of weather over time is the climate.

    But, the UN-IPCC says that solar effects are negligible on climate, I say they are blowing smoke …, I’d say they haven’t a clue about climate …, I’d say they are a bunch of power-hungry ne’er-do-wells attempting to control the fuel markets through controls on CO2.

    In the mix of air that we breath, CO2 is just a rare atmospheric gas with no observed record of damage to the natural environment. Warming the atmosphere is just bull-hockey with the minuscule numbers entertained with the current rise in CO2 levels. Energy levels for advection, convection, and atmospheric water are just orders of magnitude larger than any theorized CO2 effects.

    (Hook baited and ready!)

    1. SebastianH
    2. tom0mason

      @SebastianH

      It is as I say, look up some research.

      Here’s some links http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1………1

      Oh, sorry I forgot it isn’t in the AGW meme you follow so I’d be wasting my time telling you.

    3. Craig T

      Here’s another view of sun spots, total solar irradiance and lower troposphere temperatures. The hotter years don’t seem to line up with high sunspot numbers.

    4. Craig T

      Sorry, forgot the link: http://imgbox.com/w0Fcpgqm

      What was your link going to be?

      1. Kenneth Richard

        Here are some reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and solar activity, Craig. Notice how closely they align. (You may notice that there is not one accepted reconstruction of solar activity.)

        http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Total-Solar-Irradiance-NH-Temperatures-1700-2000s.jpg

        http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Total-Solar-Irradiance-And-NH-Temps-1000-AD-to-2000-Li-17-Edited.jpg

        http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Soon-Connolly-2015-NH-Temps-and-TSI.jpg

        These and other graphs of solar activity and climate can be found in this summary from 2 months ago.

        If you truly are interested (and I don’t know of many people who are actually open-minded on this…most people are not), here are some links to articles reviewing papers on solar activity and climate. The evidence for solar forcing/oceanic oscillatory heat distribution (ENSO, AMO, NAO, etc.) and climate is robust. Almost 400 papers linking solar activity and climate have been published in the scientific literature since 2014.

        1. http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/10/a-swelling-volume-of-scientific-papers-now-forecasting-global-cooling-in-the-coming-decades/
        2. http://notrickszone.com/2016/11/21/the-sun-climate-connection-over-100-scientific-papers-from-2016-link-solar-forcing-to-climate-change/
        3. http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/11/35-new-scientific-publications-confirm-ocean-cycles-sun-are-main-climate-drivers/
        4. http://notrickszone.com/2017/04/06/scientists-reveal-how-man-made-global-warming-is-created-via-data-manipulation-dismissing-the-sun/

        1. SebastianH

          How do scientists reconstruct solar irradiance?

          The claim was that El Nino events correlate with solar activity. The obviously do not. Do you disagree?

          1. Kenneth Richard

            “The claim was that El Nino events correlate with solar activity. The obviously do not.”

            This is effectively futile, as you are completely close-minded when it comes to the presentation of scientific information that challenges your beliefs about CO2 as the driver of ocean water temperature changes, but I’ll do this for the benefit of others (Craig?) who may actually be open-minded, skeptical, and/or willing to consider alternative viewpoints.

            Huo and Xiao, 2016
            Based on statistical and composite analysis, a significant positive correlation was found between sunspot number index and El Niño Modoki index, with a lag of two years. A clear evolution of El Niño Modoki events was found within 1–3 years following each solar peak year during the past 126 years, suggesting that anomalously strong solar activity during solar peak periods favors the triggering of an El Niño Modoki event.

            Lakshmi and Tiwari, 2015
            http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys-discuss.net/2/1447/2015/npgd-2-1447-2015.pdf

            “How do scientists reconstruct solar irradiance?”

            Look carefully at each of these 10 graphs found in scientific papers. Do you notice that solar activity was low during cold periods, and high during warm periods? Do you think that could indicate a connection, SebastianH? Or have you dismissed the Sun as a factor?

            Explain why you believe the Little Ice Age happened. What caused the ocean temperatures to plummet by -0.9 C in the 0-700 m layer after the Medieval Warm Period (Rosenthal et al., 2013)? That’s a heat variation that is 10 times the change from 1955-2010 (+0.09 C, Levitus et al., 2012). You’ve claimed that THAT recent <0.1 C change amounts to something like 400,000 Hiroshima bombs going off at the same time -- or whatever the analogy you have copied from SkS. So what was the mechanism that caused the ocean to lose all that millions of Hiroshima bomb heat during the LIA? It couldn’t be CO2…which rose slightly. So what caused that temperature change, SebastianH? See if you can answer this question this time rather than dodging it like you usually do.

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Modern-Grand-Maximum-Chen-2015.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Modern-Grand-Maximum-UVR-Chen-2015.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Cooling-Forecast-Solar-Steinhilber-and-Beer-2013.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Modern-Grand-Maximum-To-2100-Herrera-2015.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Cooling-Forecast-Solar-Abdussamatov-2012.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Modern-Grand-Maximum-Russell-2010.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Total-Solar-Irradiance-NH-Temperatures-1700-2000s.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Total-Solar-Irradiance-And-NH-Temps-1000-AD-to-2000-Li-17-Edited.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Soon-Connolly-2015-NH-Temps-and-TSI.jpg

            http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Solar-Activity-Holocene-Vieira11.jpg

          2. AndyG55

            Poor seb,

            Your ignorance of climate matters exposed…

            …yet again

          3. SebastianH

            It’s quite impressive how you constantly ….snip …trolling -PG]

          4. AndyG55

            I know you are impressed, seb.

            Were you really NOT AWARE of all the papers and facts that Kenneth puts forward ?

  8. AndyG55

    OT.

    Global something-or-other causes major problems for Australian grain storage!!!!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2017-05-11/graincorp-strong-half-yearly-results/8518130

  9. Graeme No.3

    Pierre:
    I am sure you are aware of Pavlov’s work. sod and SebastianH fit his experimental dogs well (assuming Pavlov used the lesser intelligent breeds). You mention any doubt about their (learned by rote) ideas and they froth at the mouth and drool all over your site.
    I suggest you bar them from your site for, initially, one week then if they prove incapable of learning, a month and ultimately a year. We will miss the small entertainment value they provide, and if they return they might provide a more substantial argument, although I doubt that is within their capabilities.
    Personally I have doubts about sod’s mental state and have suggested at times that he seeks psychiatrict help. I fear he won’t do so until it is too late.