Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell gave permission to publish the following, which he writes had appeared behind a paywall at Weatherbell Analytics. Part of what Joe writes was brought up at his Saturday Summary video.
(Correction: Red curve in first figure is 2011/12 year, and not 2016 as Joe originally wrote).
Greenland is a Canary in a Coal Mine
By Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell Analytics
(Editing by P. Gosselin)
Nowhere on the planet is there a better example than Greenland of how nature, and not man, is master of the planet’s fate. It demonstrates the process by which there is a natural cap to warming.
How so? Well, first of all let’s look at what’s an amazing 5-year recovery in Greenland snow and ice:
The pinkish line is how far above average we are, the extra yellow tacked on means pink and yellow is the increase since 2012.
I want you to look at that. Suppose it had gone the other way, and instead had DROPPED to 2012 levels from where it is now. Just what do you think would be reported today in the climate media?
Now this is all in the midst of what is the warmest 2-year stretch of temperatures in the satellite era. Let’s not kid around or make excuses; it is by UAH:
It is by the NCEP initialization criteria, which has been doing well in tracking the ups and downs:
This makes some sense because Greenland is a very cold place, even when it’s warmer, and so with more water vapor available from the warmed oceans, it snows more where it’s cold enough to snow. That is simple intuition and proven fact, and I didn’t need any big grant money to come up with that. So increases of water vapor in very cold places produce more snow, and CO2 is not causing more or less snow.
The idea that CO2 can suddenly warm the planet and create these situations is nonsense. At the very most, and this is a stretch, stored CO2 in the lower levels does have some warming effect by influencing the air around it, but quantifying it against the large scale drivers is by no means settled science.
Greenland colder this year
The oceans today are not a product of the increase of 1 molecule of CO2 out of every 10,000 of air over 100 years, but instead large scale events that can be centuries in the making. So someone can claim that warming leads to more snow (by the way that was taught in my climate classes in the 70s), which in turn leads to cooling since more snow makes winters last longer in areas where sun angles are low. Nature’s version of Le Chateliers, or the old adage: for every action, there is a reaction!
Predictably, Greenland in 2017…
…is cooler than it was in 2016:
But the history of Greenland shows that the current warming does not match other warm periods shown by the ice core sampling:
Above is another proxy for global temps, and it is showing a current “hockey stick” look, which certainly backs that idea. The problem is that in the cherry-pick world of climate hysteria, scientists ignore the rest of the periods, thinking that somehow it’s valid global proxy when it agrees with them, and not when it doesn’t. But whether tree rings in Mongolia or wherever, or ice cores in Greenland, the earth shows a wide and varied, always acting and reacting climate system that is independent of whatever minute influences man might offer.
Harsh winter threatening Europe?
To say there is no influence at all to me is folly, anything and everything contributes to the system, but the question lies in its weight. To say CO2 is the climate control knob in the face of what we know and see, seems beyond folly, almost a religious fanaticism. Greenland is indeed a canary in the coal mine as I have heard it put when snow and ice was melting. Problem is that it’s like nature: it’s a canary that changes its tune. Anyone listening?
Tell you what. If there’s blocking over Greenland this winter and I am in Europe, I’d really look out.