New Quebec Study: Cold Kills …0.7% Increase Of Heart Failure For Each 1°C Drop!

I thought the following paper was interesting.
No, lead-author Prof. Pierre Gosselin is not me from NTZ. But he very likely is a descendent the same family line. The first Gosselin (Gabriel) left Normandy-France and landed in Quebec City way back in 1653. As a devout Catholic, Gabriel earnestly started what was the population of Gosselins over North America and beyond over the next 364 years.
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Effects of climate and fine particulate matter on hospitalizations and deaths for heart failure in elderly: A population-based cohort study

In a recent study a team of scientists led by Prof. Pierre Gosselin assessed 112,793 people aged 65 years and older who had been diagnosed with heart failure in Quebec between 2001 and 2011. Over an average of 635 days, the researchers measured the mean temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and air pollutants in the surrounding environment and studied the data to see if there was any relationship.

Their results: for each decrease of 1°C in the daily mean temperature of the previous 3 and 7 days, the risk of heart failure events is increased of about 0.7%. In other words, a drop of 10°C in the average temperature over 7 days, which is common in the province of Quebec because of seasonal variations, is associated with increased risk to be hospitalized or to die for the main cause of heart failure of about 7% in elderly diagnosed with this disease.

The paper’s abstract:

We measured the lag effects of temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on hospitalizations and deaths for HF in elderly diagnosed with this disease on a 10-year period in the province of Quebec, Canada.

Our population-based cohort study included 112,793 elderly diagnosed with HF between 2001 and 2011. Time dependent Cox regression models approximated with pooled logistic regressions were used to evaluate the 3- and 7-day lag effects of daily temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and PM2.5 exposure on HF morbidity and mortality controlling for several individual and contextual covariates.

Overall, 18,309 elderly were hospitalized and 4297 died for the main cause of HF. We observed an increased risk of hospitalizations and deaths for HF with a decrease in the average temperature of the 3 and 7 days before the event. An increase in atmospheric pressure in the previous 7 days was also associated with a higher risk of having a HF negative outcome, but no effect was observed in the 3-day lag model. No association was found with relative humidity and with PM2.5 regardless of the lag period

Lag effects of temperature and other meteorological parameters on HF events were limited but present. Nonetheless, preventive measures should be issued for elderly diagnosed with HF considering the burden and the expensive costs associated with the management of this disease.

Lower risk of death in summer

The authors also found:

The results showed a higher risk of hospitalization or death in the winter period of the year (October to April) compared to the summer period (May to September).”

11 responses to “New Quebec Study: Cold Kills …0.711 Increase Of Heart Failure For Each 1°C Drop!”

  1. New Study: Heart Failure Deaths Higher in Colder Weather | Principia Scientific International

    […] Read more at notrickszone.com […]

  2. Greg61

    I’m Canadian, though not from Quebec. I read recently (within the last 2 years) that a DNA study done in Quebec showed that almost all francophone Quebecois can trace their lineage to just 8 families, one of which is the Gosselins.

    1. Kurt in Switzerland

      Cool. Who are the other founders of Québec?

      There are a few dozen “typical” Quebecois names, including Bélanger, Blanchette, Boucher, Bourbonnais, Desjardins, Gagné, Landry, Leclerc, Lefebvre, Therrien, Tremblay, … (just to mention some of those with whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting…).

      Were Cartier & Champlain just less successful in spreading their genes than the others?

  3. Bitter&twisted

    PM25s had no effect.
    So much for the demonisation of the motor car.
    Greens suck.

    1. Nigel S

      Yes, I noted that too. Confirms the findings referenced at Junk Science.

  4. John F. Hultquist

    Thanks for this one. We have a personal interest.

    My wife had rheumatic fever as a child and developed mitral valve stenosis. The valve was replaced in her mid-60s. There were life threatening complications.
    With no prior training, I spent many hours reading about the heart and how it works. A local family butchered 2 beef cattle and gave me the hearts. I dissected those with many references to web base explanations and a couple of books. This was very interesting.
    A main take-away is the finely tune electrical impulses that keep the heart functioning properly**, what can go wrong, and how modern medical techniques can help.
    [ ** Sinus rhythm: The normal regular rhythm of the heart set by the natural pacemaker of the heart called the sinoatrial (or sinus) node.” ]

    We live where summers can get hot (100°F) and the winters cold (-15°F). Rapid changes (1 day, not just 3 to 7) happen. We keep the house at about 70°F (21°C) and I start and pre-heat the car before she goes out, if the temperature is seriously cold. She is on her second implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD).

    1. Kurt in Switzerland

      Wow, John.

      Thank you for sharing that.

      All the best to the Missus. Keep up the good spirit.

      Kurt

    2. yonason

      Hoping the rest of your lives together will be long, healthy and happy!

  5. John F. Hultquist

    Thanks Kurt in Switzerland and yonason.
    It is amazing to me that the web brings nice words from people half a world away. It is also a source of information and inspiration.
    Pierre’s NTZ is a special place — I visit everyday when I can.

  6. tom0mason

    Meanwhile making a profit from wind gets harder…

    http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2017/11/6-000-jobs-to-go-at-siemens-gamesa-as-power-division-faces-similar-cuts.html

    The Siemens power unit reported a 41 percent drop in orders and a worse-than-expected 23 percent fall in profits in its fiscal third quarter that ended in June.

    The power division has 30,000 employees worldwide, of which about 12,000 are based in Germany.

    Chief Executive Joe Kaeser has asserted that the government’s abrupt decision to switch to renewable energy caused a structural change in the industry that made the large-turbine business unsustainable in Germany.

    1. tom0mason

      While the French put a delay on retiring the nuclear reactor end date …

      http://www.powerengineeringint.com/articles/2017/11/france-delays-reduction-of-nuclear-power.html

      Centrist President Emmanuel Macron, elected in May, had promised to keep the target and Hulot, France’s best-known environmentalist, said in July it might have to close up to 17 of its 58 reactors by 2025 to achieve it.

      RTE said in its 2017-2035 Electricity Outlook that if France went ahead with plans to simultaneously shut down four 40-year-old nuclear reactors and all its coal-fired plants as planned, there could be risks of power supply shortages.

      For this winter, RTE said electricity demand was expected to be stable, although unplanned nuclear reactor outages and a prolonged cold spell could squeeze supply.

      State-owned EDF, the world’s biggest operator of nuclear plants, has long said it made no sense to shut down functioning reactors and instead wants to extend the lifespan of its nuclear fleet from 40 to at least 50 years.

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