A look at Dr. Ryan Maue’s site here tells us a lot about how 2017 cyclone activity is doing as the Atlantic hurricane season winds down.
In September the Atlantic indeed saw some powerful hurricanes, such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, which led the media into a fit of Armageddon hysteria and calls to do something about climate change. It is true that the Atlantic saw an unusually active hurricane season, some 227% of what is normal in terms of energy, but the Atlantic is not the global situation.
Table showing 2017 accumulated cyclone energy for the 7 main basins globally. Source: Dr. Ryan Maue.
As the chart above shows, global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is currently running 19% below average and is only 73% of what it was at this time one year ago (2016).
This seems to fly in the face of all the warnings suggesting that global warming would intensify storm activity. Naturally 2017 is only one single year, and so it’s necessary to look at longer term trends.
Lowest levels since 1970s, frequency at a “historical low”
At his site Maue refers to an abstract of a paper: Geophys. Res. Lett. (2011) which tells us that cyclones don’t seem to be correlating with atmospheric CO2 at all:
In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.”
Looking at the last 25 years, since 1992, the following chart tells us ACE globally, for the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere have been trending significantly downward:
Downward cyclone trend over the past 25 years. Source: Dr. Ryan Maue.
Southern hemisphere near record low
Obviously there’s a lot more behind cyclones than CO2. So far the southern hemisphere is near a record low, running only at 44% of what is normal.
21 responses to “2017 Global Cyclone Energy Almost 2021 Below Normal …Southern Hemisphere Near Record Low!”
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And yet we had to hear morons drone on and on about how the 2017 active season was an indication of “climate change” and a few of the most ignorant morons claim it was “unprecedented”. It was as if the rest of the earth did not exist, only the Atlantic season counted.
The thing is more often than not when there is an active season in the NH the SH season will run below average and visa versa. When there is an active season in the WH the EH season will be below average and visa versa.
But anyone that has been paying attention has long understood that “Climate Change” is not a global phenomena when it comes to reporting events in context. “Climate Change” moves constantly to what ever place(s) there happens to be a weather extreme occurring at any given time. When that weather extreme ends, then “climate change” reporting moves on to some other place. And when an extreme weather event ends that some “experts” had claimed would be permanent or “the new normal”, it is all forgotten and the same “experts” that had been wrong are never called out to account for their failed forecast. Case in point the “permanent” droughts in Texas and then later California.
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But climate change is affecting poor countries more.
So is hunger, disease, parasites, infant mortality, etc, etc, etc. The closer a country and it’s people are to the edge of the abyss the more likely they are to be pushed into it.
Human induced climate change exists only in computer models, regressive green taxes and Sebastian’s (and other “useful idiots”) head.
If you think so … or maybe it is really happening and you are in deep denial? Ever considered that possibility?
As the strong hurricane season in the Atlantic is no global indicator, the ACE isn’t an indicator for global wind energy either.
As for Germany: 2017 was a particular windy year as can be seen from the electricity generation so far https://energy-charts.de/energy.htm?source=solar-wind&period=annual&year=all
Yeah, looks real stable.
Doesn’t have to be at this scale …
Yes, it does.
Which scale? Time or geographic?
Are you saying neither is a problem?
as usual Sebastian, doesn’t address the post since he knows it doesn’t support the AGW idea.
Someone mentions my name, I reply and you complain that I don’t address the post (I did, but whatever)? Who are you? A complaining fan? Why didn’t you address the post at all in your reply?
Just pointing out the flaws in AGW for you.
There’s only one denier here, Sebastian and it isn’t me.
Why do you guys ignore the flaws in your wild theories concerning what’s going on in climate science then? It’s pretty wild to expect your nonsense is flawless nonsense …
SebH makes his point.
Sebastian, again fails to make a credible counterpoint to the data based article.
Running off at the mouth is not a good idea,Seb……
There is an interesting paper on the frequency of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean (the very area that has provoked the MSM wailing this year) that was published in 2016 and has a time series for the period 1749 – 2010.
The chart shows a gradual decline in frequency over that period. (A period that shows a steady increase in global and sea temperatures due to a rise from the LIA and possible anthropogenic effects). The abstract reads :
“We present the results of a time series analysis of hurricanes and sunspots occurring from 1749 to 2010. Exploratory analysis shows that the total number of hurricanes is declining. This decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity. Spectral analysis shows a relationship between hurricane oscillation periods and sunspot activity. Several sunspot cycles were identified from the time series analysis.”
The article was found as a reference in a recent paper available as a preprint from “Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics” published by the European geosciences Union
Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea
Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi1, David Alberto Salas-de-León2, María Adela Monreal-Gómez2, Norma Leticia Sánchez-Santillán3, and David Salas-Monreal4 (6th Oct 2017)
This paper analyses the chaotic character of the incidence of hurricanes without specifying a physical deterministic factor.
The reason the alarmists want to say co2 is the cause of warming is to be able control co2 by which they can control every entity that emits co2 forever; which means every living thing and a lot of non living things.
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