40-Year Meteorologist Rejects Warming The Cause Of Brutal Cold Snaps! And: La Nina Conditions Over Entire 2018

At his latest Weatherbell Analytics Saturday Summary, 40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi lays out what’s behind the next brutal blast of cold and snow that’s coming to North America over the next weeks:

Temperature anomaly forecast for February 7 – 12, 2018, for North America. Chart: NCEP.

It’s due to naturally occurring cycles, he says.

Yet, as the cold approaches, global warming activists are now feverishly scrambling to blame it on “global warming” in a desperate bid to dampen the embarrassment of their earlier predictions of balmy, snowless winters. They insist that the cold shots are due to global warming disrupting weather patterns.

But Bastardi dismisses the far-fetched, highly imaginative claims, hinting for quite some time that it is mostly politically motivated and a load of nonsense. In his Saturday Summary video the seasoned meteorologist reminds viewers that this has all happened before and is driven by naturally occurring patterns involving ocean surface temperatures and solar activity. It’s all been seen before.

Seasonal forecasters rely on natural cycles, not global warming

Bastardi also has knocked the alarmists on many occasions for not being able to put out a forecast beforehand, and waiting until after-the-fact to sound off. By ignoring global warming, and instead using natural oceanic and atmospheric cycles, Bastardi had warned weeks and weeks earlier that North America would be hit by severe cold and heavy snow this winter and early spring. “It’s all natural,” he says.

Veteran former NOAA meteorologist David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations also uses a similar technique of natural oscillations to predict hurricane seasons well in advance. Both say global warming is not a way to forecast a season’s weather.

Doesn’t “believe at all” globe entering a new little ice age

Unlike a number of scientists, Bastardi does not believe the globe is entering a “little ice age” a period of cooling. He feels solar activity over the past 150 years has been too high for too long, and so the accumulated heat will need a lot more time to dissipate before a real cooling period takes hold.

To explain his point, Bastardi shows a chart, but one that is not up to date and thus fails to show the current low activity solar cycle 24. Solar activity has been low for over 10 years. The next 10 years are also expected to see low activity. When using solar activity as an indicator, the cooling of the Dalton Minimum occurred almost immediately. So the debate surrounding the lag will likely remain very much alive.

La Nina now projected to extend throughout entire 2018

Meanwhile New Zealand meteorologist Ben Noll at Twitter commented that the La Nina forecast has been revised and now shows weak La Nina conditions persisting throughout the entire 2018 year:

That likely means that global warming will remained stalled yet another year. After that solar activity will be close to zero, and so things are going to get even far more desperate for the warmist activists.

13 responses to “40-Year Meteorologist Rejects Warming The Cause Of Brutal Cold Snaps! And: La Nina Conditions Over Entire 2018”

  1. RAH

    Yesterday I received my copy of Joe’s new book in the mail:
    https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Chronicles-Inconvenient-Revelations-Gore/dp/1983509388/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&tag=wattsupwithth-20&qid=1516363915&sr=8-4&keywords=The+Climate+Chronicles

    Available only in paperback at this time.

    As an avid reader and truck driver I find the Kindle to be a fantastic piece of technology that allows me to carry a library with me wherever I go. But when it comes to subject matter that uses charts, graphs, maps, photos, or other graphics to get it’s points across, dead tree versions are the way to go IMHO. This book falls in that later category.

    Having just skimmed this first book from Joe I would say he writes better than he speaks. Will take the book on the road with me and read it cover to cover as time allows.

  2. Pochas

    I make the same prediction every year. First week in January, very cold. Last 2 weeks, the January thaw. February, back in the icebox. Spring begins the Ides of March.

  3. CO2isLife

    Junk science can work both ways.

    Ban on Fracking is Causing California’s Earthquakes

    Keeping with the spirit of climate alarmist fake news, I’ve decided to apply their best practices to the recent earthquakes in California. Best Practice #1: Start with a conclusion that supports your political agenda and work backward. I want to expose the Sophistry used by the Climate Alarmists. Best Practice #2: Identify a completely natural phenomenon, … Continue reading
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/ban-on-fracking-is-causing-californias-earthquakes/

  4. tom0mason

    “Yet, as the cold approaches, global warming activists are now feverishly scrambling to blame it on “global warming” in a desperate bid to dampen the embarrassment of their earlier predictions of balmy, snowless winters. They insist that the cold shots are due to global warming disrupting weather patterns.”

    Yep just like all the warming prior to the 1960s and 1970s caused all the cooling that happen then, eh? Er, how about it being just natural cycles, and nothing, but nothing, to do with the innocent gas CO2, or the negligible amount of it humans put into the atmosphere.

    Were having weather like it’s 1969!

    1. Rah

      Agree. This winter in central Indiana is like the ones I remember as a kid growing up here in the 60’s and 70’s.

    2. Rah

      We would have two or three good snows a year suitable for sledding and snow fort building and tunneling into plowed piles of snow. Then after hours of playing in it Mom would have a big pot of home made hot cocoa on the stove waiting for us.

  5. RAH

    BTW Joe had mentioned in one of his daily updates early last week that the cold water west of Australia indicates a possibility that the La Nina may be quashed so he and Ben Noll don’t appear to be in agreement on that point.

    It seems to me that the forecasting of El Ninos and La Ninas is pretty difficult. I noticed that forecasts were all over the place before the El Nino of 2016 really got started.

  6. AndyG55

    OT, And so it starts

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/01/melbourne-42000-homes-in-dark-no-fans-left-at-kmart-power-outages-due-to-secret-air-conditioners/

    Gees, you close down a power station capable of producing 1600MW, and then wonder why you run out of electricity.

    DOH !!!

  7. John F. Hultquist

    Ben Noll has read the charts incorrectly, and/or used poor wording.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    See charts toward the end.
    He may be right, but NOAA–CPC does not agree.

  8. Stephen Richards

    Joe point about not believing a little ice age is possible yet is based on the speed of radiation into space. Willis comes close to this but hasn’t yet (I don’t think) come up with a figure. TOA measurements he did showed a rise in T with a rise in Tn at the surface. So the heat from the sun may radiate away a lot faster than Joe thinks

    1. AndyG55

      It really comes down as to just how much energy is still stored in the ocean from that series of strong solar cycles during the latter half of last century.

      There is one heck of a lot of storage capacity, and it can move pretty slow.

      The 2015-2017 N. Atlantic Blob and El Nino released a fair amount of energy into the atmosphere and SSTs, and it is taking a while to dissipate, but it remains to be seen just how much more needs to be lost to get into the oceans into balance with the currently sleepy sun.

  9. Joe Bastardi

    There is about to be a big crash of the SOI for FEB. Remember this is an enso 1.2 based La Nina, 3.4 not as cold. This is why the winter is cold, I have showed that relationship countless times, When 1.2 is warmer than 3.4 be it in an el nino or la nina ( last year for instance 1.2 was warm while 3.4 was cool) the US east and plains is usually colder, The rapid SOI fall in December was followed by a rise in Jan ( and the warming you saw as its a sign of enhanced MJO activity in the warm phases) The drop coming and the weakening of convection in the Indian ocean means the MJO heads into 8,1,2,3 and its slow. This second shot should start the demise of the La Nina and the Euro likely has the jump on it Good read: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf BTW you are seeing the AGW pushers weaponizing weather events ( claiming every event as theres) I write about it extensively in my book ( I should thank them for making my points for me just as the book comes out ha ha) Peace out

  10. Tom Harley

    The La Nina conditions gave us here in Broome for the last 24 hours, in excess of 400mm of rain, the most in 21 years. It’s still raining and more is expected for 2 days. The annual average could be achieved in January alone.
    Broome sits in the middle of the NorthWest Australian cyclone region